Series:OSW Commentary

0.00 €

Rebuilding Germany’s air defence capabilities: on the eve of crucial decisions

Rebuilding Germany’s air defence capabilities: on the eve of crucial decisions

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany’s air defence

As NATO has returned its focus to collective defence since 2014, very short, short-range and medium-range surface-based air defence has become a desirable capability. Germany, which has been recalibrating the Bundeswehr to resume participation in conventional military conflicts, is in the process of re-creating air defence capabilities. In 2018–2019, the German Defence Ministry is expected to take decisions regarding two crucial air defence programmes: the NNbS and the TLVS. || The very short and short-range air defence capabilities have effectively been dismantled within the German Army over the last decade. The Bundeswehr plans to rebuild them in the NNbS programme in order to meet its commitments within the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP). The contract for the NNbS is expected to be signed in 2019. However, the plans to quickly rebuild capabilities in this area may stumble on technical, financial and personnel challenges. || As Germany has committed to deploy a fully modernised brigade for NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) duty in 2023, Berlin is also seeking alternative solutions, such as co-operation with The Netherlands, or smaller purchases outside the NNbS programme. In late 2018 or early 2019, the German Defence Ministry is also planning to sign the contract for the medium-range air defence programme, TLVS, three years after it decided to use the results of the MEADS programme that was completed in 2014. The TLVS system will replace the Patriot batteries that have been in use since the late 1980s and have been successively upgraded. Time will tell as to whether the lengthy negotiations will enable the Defence Ministry to avoid delays and financial and technical problems in the complex TLVS programme, of which Germany is going to be the sole user for now.

More...

0.00 €

Poroshenko stands alone. Ukraine politics in a pre-election year

Poroshenko stands alone. Ukraine politics in a pre-election year

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poroshenko; Ukraine

The year 2019 will be an election year in Ukraine, with a presidential election in the spring and a parliamentary election in the autumn. The short timeframe and the order in which these two elections will be held increase the chances of the winner of the presidential election forming the largest faction in parliament. The first phase of election campaigning has already begun, with Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko as the main contenders, but opinion polls are inconclusive. The atmosphere surrounding the campaign is one of mistrust on the part of voters in the authorities and the political class. Ukraine’s Euromaidan Revolution created expectations politicians could not fulfil.

More...

0.00 €

On the way to creating the ‘Donbas people’. Identity policy in the self-proclaimed Republics in East Ukraine

On the way to creating the ‘Donbas people’. Identity policy in the self-proclaimed Republics in East Ukraine

Author(s): Yulia Abibok / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine

Four years since the unrecognized ‘republics’ in the east of Ukraine were declared, their future remains unclear. On the one hand, Ukraine, its western partners and the leadership of the Russian Federation continue to insist that these territories be returned to Kyiv’s control on the terms of the Minsk Agreements. On the other side, the self-proclaimed leaders of these ‘republics’, while also declaring their commitment to the Minsk Agreements, have publicly rejected any possibility of reunification with the rest of Ukraine1. As a result, the east of Ukraine remains in a condition of smouldering war.Four years since the unrecognized ‘republics’ in the east of Ukraine were declared, their future remains unclear. On the one hand, Ukraine, its western partners and the leadership of the Russian Federation continue to insist that these territories be returned to Kyiv’s control on the terms of the Minsk Agreements. On the other side, the self-proclaimed leaders of these ‘republics’, while also declaring their commitment to the Minsk Agreements, have publicly rejected any possibility of reunification with the rest of Ukraine1. As a result, the east of Ukraine remains in a condition of smouldering war.In this situation of uncertainty, the Luhansk and Donetsk ‘people’s republics’ are continuing to make efforts to legitimize and strengthen their ‘statehood’, most notably by means of a new historical policy. Both para-states are trying to revise the assessments of historical events which have been established during the years of Ukraine’s independence. Serious efforts are being made in the area of the ‘patriotic education’ of children, both in school and during extra-curricular activities; there are new ‘state’ holidays, cults, and a large-scale campaign honouring and perpetuating the memories of the new ‘rebel’ heroes and of civilians who have died at the hands of the Kyiv ’murderers’ is being conducted.Moreover the events of the war of 1941–5 are being reinterpreted, compared to the current military actions ‘against the fascists’. The new ‘state’ cult is being built on just such a parallel, which not only imparts significance to the current events, but also helps to contrast the ‘republics’ to today’s Ukraine. The intended effect of the DPR and LPR’s historical policies is the creation of a new Donbas community which is hostile towards ‘nationalist’ Ukraine.

More...

0.00 €

“An independent state needs an independent Church“. The fight for canonical independence for Ukrainian Orthodoxy

“An independent state needs an independent Church“. The fight for canonical independence for Ukrainian Orthodoxy

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainian Orthodoxy

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate (UOC-KP) and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church (UAOC) have submitted a request to the Ecumenical Patriarch (i.e. the patriarch of Constantinople, the supreme head of all Orthodox Churches) to grant autocephaly to Ukrainian Orthodoxy. On 19 April the Ukrainian parliament, at the request of President Petro Poroshenko, expressed its support for this measure. The President himself expressed his support on 22 April. There are numerous indications that a positive decision regarding this issue has already been made, and a relevant thomos (patriarch’s decree) will be announced any time this year Proclamation of the Ukrainian Autocephalous Particular Orthodox Church (Ukrayinska Pomisna Avtokefalna Pravoslavna Tserkva, UAPOC) will likely trigger a new wave of confessional conflicts across Ukraine, including a likely schism in the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which recognizes the primacy of the patriarch of Moscow (UOC). It is beyond any doubt that a certain portion of believers and clergy, which today is difficult to estimate, will remain loyal to Moscow and that the Moscow Patriarchate will make every effort to support Ukrainian structures of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). The government of Ukraine, for its part, will try to prevent the development of these structures.

More...

0.00 €

For justice and compensation. Ukraine takes Russia to the international courts

For justice and compensation. Ukraine takes Russia to the international courts

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; international courts

On 2 May, the Permanent Court of Arbitration based in The Hague passed a ruling in a case brought by a group of Ukrainian companies and one individual against the Russian Federation. It unanimously granted their claims to the assets lost as a consequence of the annexation of Crimea and imposed an obligation on the Russian side to pay US$159 million in compensation. This verdict is the first to have been delivered in a number of cases brought by Ukrainian private companies and the Ukrainian state to the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice and the European Court of Human Rights linked to the Russian occupation of the Crimean Peninsula and Russian military operation in eastern Ukraine.After the ruling passed in February this year by the Stockholm Arbitration Court in the dispute between Naftogaz and Gazprom, that of the Hague Court is another success attained by the Ukrainian side in international courts. It proves that the legal measures taken by Ukraine are successful and will become an instrument to be employed in Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy, especially in the face of subsequent rulings expected to be favourable to Kyiv. However, since the Russian Federation has refused to recognise the court decisions, enforcing the payment of the compensation will be a long and complicated process. Therefore, Ukrainian companies will make efforts to take over assets owned by the Russian state located in Ukraine.

More...

0.00 €

Nord Stream 2 divides the West

Nord Stream 2 divides the West

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Rafał Bajczuk,Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nord Stream 2

In recent weeks the US has stepped up its campaign against the Nord Stream 2 project. Washington is putting pressure on Berlin to withdraw its support for the project, and is threatening to use increasingly powerful measures, including sanctions on European companies involved in the gas pipeline’s implementation. The growing dispute between the US and Germany over Nord Stream 2 has become an element of the broader controversy surrounding the project in the EU and is leading to deeper divisions between the member states. It has brought to the fore the differences in approaches to gas cooperation with Russia as well as approaches to the development of Russia’s strategic gas pipeline projects. While Germany, but also Austria, the Netherlands and a number of other countries, limit their approach to commercial issues, Poland, the Baltic States, Denmark and the US also see it as having security implications which do not only relate to energy. The conflict over Nord Stream 2 is also part of the game concerning the future shape of the gas market in Europe, and the roles played by individual external suppliers (mainly Russia, but also to an increasing extent the US) and companies such as Gazprom and its European partners. The Nord Stream 2 case has become a major challenge of the EU’s cohesion and its relations with the US and Russia.

More...

0.00 €

Cadres decide everything – Turkey’s reform of its military

Cadres decide everything – Turkey’s reform of its military

Author(s): Mateusz R. Chudziak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; military

Over the last two years, the Turkish Armed Forces (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetlerı – TSK) have been subject to transformations with no precedent in the history of Turkey as a republic. The process of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) subordinating the army to civilian government has accelerated following the failed coup that took place on 15 July 2016. The government has managed to take away the autonomy of the armed forces which, while retaining their enormous significance within the state apparatus, ceased to be the main element consolidating the old Kemalist elites. However, the unprecedented scale of the purges and the introduction of formal civilian control of the military are merely a prelude to a much more profound change intended to create a brand new military, one that would serve the authorities and be composed of a new type of personnel – individuals from outside the army’s traditional power base. This reflects the reshuffle of the elites that happened during AKP’s rule.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine–Hungary: the intensifying dispute over the Hungarian minority’s rights

Ukraine–Hungary: the intensifying dispute over the Hungarian minority’s rights

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine–Hungary; Hungarian minority’s rights

For nearly one year relations between Hungary and Ukraine have been plunged in the worst crisis since the collapse of the USSR. The main cause of the tension has been the Education Act passed by the Ukrainian parliament in September 2017 which envisages a comprehensive reform of the education system and at the same time imposes serious restrictions on the use of the languages of national minorities, including Hungarian, in school education. In response to this, Budapest severely criticised Kyiv and took measures to block the establishment of closer relations between Ukraine and NATO, insisting that the act be changed. In turn, Ukraine took steps to soften Budapest’s stance and asked the Venice Commission to evaluate the act and then declared that it would follow the recommendations provided in the evaluation. The deficit of trust which has existed for years and the fact that neither of the parties had taken real steps to reach a compromise prevented them from reaching an agreement that had seemed close in May and June this year. The conflict was escalated further when the Hungarian government appointed a ministerial commissioner for the development of Zakarpattia Oblast (in Ukraine), which met with a harsh reaction from Kyiv and was interpreted as interfering with Ukraine’s internal affairs.The dispute over the Hungarian minority’s rights in Ukraine is about historical and identity related issues that are very important to both sides, and it is highly unlikely that it will be resolved in the coming months. While these issues have always been at the core of Budapest’s foreign policy, especially with regard to the countries where the Hungarian minorities live, Kyiv neglected them until 2014. However, since the Russian annexation of Crimea and the aggression in the Donbass, Ukraine has been taking comprehensive measures aimed at decommunisation and derussification. The consequences of this include on the one hand a Ukrainisation of the public space, the media and the education system, and on the other restricting national minorities’ rights in Ukraine as regards the use of their language in the education system. For those reasons, both sides are likely to firmly stick to their stances and to be looking for current political benefits resulting from the conflict rather than taking action to reach a compromise.

More...

0.00 €

Serbia-Kosovo negotiations – playing for time under pressure from the West

Serbia-Kosovo negotiations – playing for time under pressure from the West

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia-Kosovo negotiations

The negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo aimed at reaching a comprehensive agreement to normalise relations between the two states are to enter a new phase in September. Although the negotiations, which have been going on since 2011 under the oversight of the European Union, may have prompted the incorporation of the Serbian minority and the territories it inhabits into Kosovo’s institutional system, they have been at a standstill for three years. The authorities in Prishtina are unwilling to agree to further concessions to the Serbs until Belgrade recognises Kosovo’s independence, at least on a de facto basis. Any compromise will come at a high political cost for the authorities of both Serbia and Kosovo, due to hostility on the part of the public and the opposition in both states. Meanwhile, the EU and the US are putting pressure on Belgrade and Prishtina to reach an agreement by no later than mid-2019. The Serbian and Kosovar elites cannot ignore this pressure as they largely owe their political positions to support from the West, and for this reason the authorities in both states wish to play for time and prolong the talks. They are doing this by periodically escalating tensions and putting forward solutions that are unacceptable to the other party or the international community. One example of this was the proposals made in July by the presidents of Serbia and Kosovo, Aleksandar Vučic and Hashim Thaçi, to exchange territory and change borders, which caused a great deal of controversy inside and outside the countries. Moreover, divisions between countries in the West, which do not have a united strategy regarding the negotiations, may hamper moves to reach a compromise. The United States is pushing for a quick resolution of the dispute, even if this means reviewing the borders. . However, Germany is opposed to that solution as it fears that this would strengthen separatist movements throughout the entire Balkans. Both Serbs and Kosovo Albanians will try to exploit these divisions, while the success of the process of normalising Serbian-Kosovar relations will in fact depend upon effective pressure from the West.

More...

China’s offer to the EU: tough negotiations or a coalition against Trump?

China’s offer to the EU: tough negotiations or a coalition against Trump?

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; China; EU; USA

Donald Trump’s aggressive policy towards Beijing and the spectre of a trade war have served as a catalyst for the resumption of dialogue between China and the EU. Within a period of less than two weeks, the Chinese prime minister held three meetings with EU leaders: within the 16+1 framework, a German-Chinese intergovernmental consultation, and a China-EU summit. Beijing’s diplomatic offensive was intended to show openness to the EU’s demands to liberalise access to the Chinese market, and to neutralise allegations that China has been exploiting divisions between EU member states. Beijing hopes that improving the climate of the talks, together with making some small concessions to Brussels, and especially to Berlin, will allow it to bring the EU onto its side in its conflict with the United States at relatively little cost. This puts the EU in a dilemma. On the one hand, supporting the pressure Washington is currently putting on Beijing could lead to a real opening-up of the Chinese market, and also reduce the growing imbalance in international trade whose roots lie in China. However, this risks a collapse of economic growth in China, which would mean losses for many European companies. On the other hand, if the EU cooperated with Beijing on this matter, it could strengthen the multilateral trading system based on the WTO, and also help to defend the Iran agreement and the Paris agreement on climate change. However, if Brussels openly joins the Chinese coalition against Washington, that could cause serious divisions within the EU and in trans-Atlantic relations, and also limit Beijing’s determination to undertake domestic reforms.

More...

A stinking business. Environmental issues, protests and big money in the waste business in Russia

A stinking business. Environmental issues, protests and big money in the waste business in Russia

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: waste business; Russia

In recent months, Moscow oblast has seen a series of social protests against environmental problems caused by municipal waste landfills. The waste disposal sites are overloaded, lack adequate safeguards, emit toxic gases and contaminate the groundwater with harmful effluent. The situation is most severe in Moscow oblast because the capital city generates the largest volumes of waste; however, the problem itself extends beyond environmental concerns into the economic and social spheres. Waste management in Russia is marked by notorious overloading of legal waste disposal sites and the emergence of illegal waste dumps, inadequate waste disposal practices leading to air pollution and groundwater contamination which affect local residents, and bad practices by businesses with links to President Vladimir Putin which have monopolised the waste collection sector.

More...

Poroshenko stands alone. Ukraine politics in a pre-election year

Samotność Poroszenki. Ukraińska polityka w roku przedwyborczym

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraine; elections

W 2019 roku na Ukrainie wiosną odbędą się wybory prezydenckie, a jesienią – parlamentarne. Bliskość w czasie i sekwencja obu elekcji zwiększy szanse zwycięzcy wyborów prezydenckich na stworzenie największej frakcji w parlamencie. Wstępna faza kampanii wyborczej już się rozpoczęła. Głównymi pretendentami są Petro Poroszenko i Julia Tymoszenko, wyniki sondaży przedwyborczych nie są jednak jednoznaczne. Kampania toczy się w atmosferze nieufności wyborców do władz i klasy politycznej, gdyż rewolucja godności rozbudziła oczekiwania, których politycy nie byli w stanie spełnić.

More...

On the way to create the "people of Donbas". Policy of identity in the self-proclaimed Republics in Eastern Ukraine

Na drodze do stworzenia „narodu Donbasu”. Polityka tożsamości samozwańczych republik na wschodzie Ukrainy

Author(s): Yulia Abibok / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: identity policy

Po upływie czterech lat od proklamowania na wschodzie Ukrainy tzw. Donieckiej i Ługańskiej Republik Ludowych ich przyszłość pozostaje pod znakiem zapytania. Z jednej strony Ukraina, jej zachodni partnerzy i władze Federacji Rosyjskiej nadal domagają się powrotu tego terytorium pod kontrolę Kijowa na warunkach porozumień mińskich. Z drugiej strony władze samozwańczych „republik”, również deklarując przestrzeganie umowy z Mińska, publicznie odrzucają możliwość ponownego połączenia z resztą Ukrainy. W rezultacie wschód Ukrainy pozostaje w stanie tlącej się wojny.

More...

For justice and compensation. Ukraine takes Russia to the international courts

O sprawiedliwość i odszkodowania. Ukraina przeciwko Rosji w sądach międzynarodowych

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia;

2 maja Stały Trybunał Arbitrażowy w Hadze wydał orzeczenie w sprawie pozwu grupy ukraińskich przedsiębiorstw i jednej osoby fizycznej przeciwko Federacji Rosyjskiej, w którym jednomyślnie uznał ich roszczenia do aktywów utraconych w wyniku aneksji Krymu i zobowiązał stronę rosyjską do wypłaty 159 mln USD odszkodowania. Werdykt jest pierwszym orzeczeniem z szeregu spraw toczących się z powództwa ukraińskich przedsiębiorstw prywatnych oraz państwa ukraińskiego przed Stałym Trybunałem Arbitrażowym, a także Międzynarodowym Trybunałem Karnym, Międzynarodowym Trybunałem Sprawiedliwości i Europejskim Trybunałem Praw Człowieka – związanych z rosyjską okupacją Półwyspu Krymskiego i działaniami zbrojnymi Rosji na wschodzie Ukrainy.

More...

"An independent state needs an independent Church." The fight for canonical independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church

„Niepodległe państwo potrzebuje niepodległego Kościoła”. Walka o samodzielność kanoniczną ukraińskiego prawosławia

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukrainian Orthodoxy

19 kwietnia Rada Najwyższa Ukrainy na wniosek prezydenta Petra Poroszenki, a 22 kwietnia sam prezydent poparli prośbę Ukraińskiego Kościoła Prawosławnego Patriarchatu Kijowskiego (UPC-KP) i Ukraińskiego Autokefalicznego Kościoła Prawosławnego (UAPC) do patriarchy ekumenicznego (tj. patriarchy Konstantynopola, najwyższego zwierzchnika Kościołów prawosławnych) o przyznanie ukraińskiemu prawosławiu autokefalii. Wiele wskazuje na to, że decyzja o spełnieniu tej prośby już zapadła, a ogłoszenie odpowiedniego tomosu (dekretu patriarchy) nastąpi jeszcze w tym roku. Proklamowanie Ukraińskiego Autokefalicznego Partykularnego Kościoła Prawosławnego (Ukrajinśka Pomisna Awtokefalna Prawosławna Cerkwa, UPAPC) oznaczać będzie początek nowej fali konfliktów konfesyjnych na całej Ukrainie, w tym prawdopodobnie rozłam w Ukraińskim Kościele Prawosławnym uznającym zwierzchność patriarchy Moskwy (UPC). Nie ma bowiem wątpliwości, że pewna, trudna dziś do określenia część wiernych i kapłanów pozostanie lojalna wobec Moskwy, Patriarchat Moskiewski będzie wszelkimi sposobami wspierał ukraińskie struktury Rosyjskiego Kościoła Prawosławnego (RPC), władze Ukrainy będą zaś przeciwdziałać ich rozwojowi.

More...

Nord Stream 2 divides the West

Nord Stream 2 dzieli Zachód

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Rafał Bajczuk,Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Nord Stream 2

W ostatnich tygodniach nasiliła się amerykańska ofensywa przeciw projektowi Nord Stream 2. Waszyngton naciska na Berlin, by wycofał poparcie dla projektu i grozi użyciem coraz mocniejszych instrumentów – w tym objęciem sankcjami europejskich firm zaangażowanych w realizację gazociągu. Narastający spór pomiędzy USA i Niemcami dotyczący Nord Stream 2 wpisuje się w kontrowersje w Unii Europejskiej dotyczące projektu i pogłębia podziały pomiędzy państwami członkowskimi. Uwypukla różnice w podejściu do współpracy gazowej z Rosją i rozwoju strategicznych rosyjskich projektów gazociągowych. Podczas gdy w optyce Niemiec, ale też Austrii, Holandii i kilku innych państw dominuje podejście komercyjne, Polska, państwa bałtyckie, Dania oraz USA łączą projekt także z kwestiami bezpieczeństwa, nie tylko energetycznego. Konflikt o Nord Stream 2 wpisuje się też w rozgrywkę o przyszły kształt rynku gazu w Europie, rolę poszczególnych dostawców zewnętrznych (głównie Rosji, ale w coraz większej mierze także USA) oraz koncernów, w tym Gazpromu i jego europejskich partnerów. Sprawa Nord Stream 2 stała się poważnym wyzwaniem dla spójności UE oraz jej stosunków z USA i Rosją.

More...

Cadres decide everything – Turkey’s reform of its military

Kadry decydują o wszystkim – reforma armii w Turcji

Author(s): Mateusz R. Chudziak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Turkey; military

W ostatnich dwóch latach Tureckie Siły Zbrojne (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetlerı – TSK) zostały poddane przekształceniom niemającym precedensu w historii republikańskiej Turcji. Proces podporządkowywania wojska rządom cywilnym przez rządzącą Partię Sprawiedliwości i Rozwoju (AKP) gwałtownie pogłębił się po nieudanym puczu z 15 lipca 2016 roku. Rząd doprowadził do zniesienia autonomii sił zbrojnych, które zachowując swoje ogromne znaczenie w ramach aparatu państwowego, przestały pełnić rolę zwornika skupiającego stare kemalistowskie elity. Bezprecedensowe w swojej skali czystki oraz ustanowienie formalnej kontroli cywilnej stanowią jednak preludium do znacznie głębszej zmiany – celem jest stworzenie nowego wojska, służebnego wobec władz i złożonego z nowych ludzi, niewywodzących się z tradycyjnego dla armii zaplecza. Odzwierciedla to wymianę elit, jaka dokonała się podczas rządów AKP.

More...

0.00 €

China’s offer to the EU: tough negotiations or a coalition against Trump?

UE wobec oferty Chin: twarde negocjacje czy koalicja przeciw Trumpowi?

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: European Union; China; Donald Trump; United States; coalition against Trump; US-China relations; Chinese market; EU’s cooperation with China; trans-Atlantic relations;

Agresywna polityka Donalda Trumpa wobec Pekinu i widmo wojny handlowej stają się katalizatorem dla wznowienia dialogu chińsko-unijnego. W czasie niespełna dwóch tygodni premier Chin odbył trzy spotkania z liderami UE: w ramach formatu 16+1, niemiecko-chińskich konsultacji międzyrządowych i szczytu Chiny–UE. Ofensywa dyplomatyczna Pekinu miała pokazać otwartość na postulaty Unii dotyczące zliberalizowania dostępu do chińskiego rynku, a także zneutralizować zarzuty o wykorzystywanie podziałów między państwami członkowskimi. Pekin liczy, że poprawa klimatu rozmów, a także niewielkie ustępstwa pod adresem Brukseli, zwłaszcza zaś Berlina, pozwolą mu relatywnie małym kosztem przeciągnąć UE na swoją stronę w konflikcie handlowym z USA. Stawia to państwa UE przed dylematem. Z jednej strony, poparcie obecnej presji Waszyngtonu na Pekin może doprowadzić do realnego otwarcia rynku chińskiego, a także zredukować coraz większe nierównowagi w handlu międzynarodowym, których źródłem są Chiny. Niesie to jednak ryzyko załamania rozwoju gospodarczego w Chinach, co oznaczałoby straty dla wielu europejskich koncernów. Z drugiej strony, współpraca UE z Pekinem może wzmocnić wielostronny system handlu oparty na WTO, a także pomóc w obronie umowy z Iranem i paryskiego porozumienia klimatycznego. Jednoznaczne wejście Brukseli w chińską koalicję przeciwko Waszyngtonowi może jednak wywołać poważne podziały wewnątrz UE oraz w relacjach transatlantyckich, a także ograniczyć determinację Pekinu do wprowadzania reform wewnętrznych.

More...

0.00 €

Serbia-Kosovo negotiations – playing for time under pressure from the West

Negocjacje Serbii z Kosowem – gra na czas pod presją Zachodu

Author(s): Marta Szpala / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Serbia-Kosovo negotiation; international agreement; European Union; West; territory exchange; reviewing the borders; normalising Serbian-Kosovar relations;

The negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo aimed at reaching a comprehensive agreement to normalise relations between the two states are to enter a new phase in September. Although the negotiations, which have been going on since 2011 under the oversight of the European Union, may have prompted the incorporation of the Serbian minority and the territories it inhabits into Kosovo’s institutional system, they have been at a standstill for three years. The authorities in Prishtina are unwilling to agree to further concessions to the Serbs until Belgrade recognises Kosovo’s independence, at least on a de facto basis. Any compromise will come at a high political cost for the authorities of both Serbia and Kosovo, due to hostility on the part of the public and the opposition in both states. Meanwhile, the EU and the US are putting pressure on Belgrade and Prishtina to reach an agreement by no later than mid-2019. The Serbian and Kosovar elites cannot ignore this pressure as they largely owe their political positions to support from the West, and for this reason the authorities in both states wish to play for time and prolong the talks. They are doing this by periodically escalating tensions and putting forward solutions that are unacceptable to the other party or the international community. One example of this was the proposals made in July by the presidents of Serbia and Kosovo, Aleksandar Vučic and Hashim Thaçi, to exchange territory and change borders, which caused a great deal of controversy inside and outside the countries. Moreover, divisions between countries in the West, which do not have a united strategy regarding the negotiations, may hamper moves to reach a compromise. The United States is pushing for a quick resolution of the dispute, even if this means reviewing the borders. However, Germany is opposed to that solution as it fears that this would strengthen separatist movements throughout the entire Balkans. Both Serbs and Kosovo Albanians will try to exploit these divisions, while the success of the process of normalising Serbian-Kosovar relations will in fact depend upon effective pressure from the West.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine–Hungary: the intensifying dispute over the Hungarian minority’s rights

Ukraina – Węgry: narastający spór o prawa mniejszości węgierskiej

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki,Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraine; Hungary; dispute; Hungarian minority’s rights; Ukrainian-Hungarian crisis; national minorities; international affairs; foreign policy;

Od niemal roku stosunki między Węgrami a Ukrainą znajdują się w najgłębszym kryzysie od upadku ZSRR. Główną przyczyną napięć jest przyjęta we wrześniu 2017 roku przez ukraiński parlament ustawa oświatowa, która wprowadzając całościową reformę systemu edukacji, jednocześnie przewiduje poważne ograniczenia w stosowaniu w szkolnictwie języków mniejszości narodowych, w tym węgierskiego. Budapeszt zareagował gwałtowną krytyką pod adresem Kijowa oraz blokowaniem zbliżenia Ukrainy z NATO, domagając się zmiany ustawy. Ukraina z kolei podjęła kroki, aby doprowadzić do złagodzenia stanowiska Budapesztu, poddając ustawę pod ocenę Komisji Weneckiej, a następnie deklarując realizację rekomendacji zawartych w tej ocenie. Wieloletni deficyt zaufania, a także brak realnych działań z obydwu stron na rzecz kompromisu uniemożliwiły rysujące się w maju i czerwcu br. porozumienie. Do kolejnej eskalacji konfliktu doprowadziło powołanie przez węgierski rząd pełnomocnika ds. rozwoju obwodu zakarpackiego, co spotkało się w Kijowie z gwałtowną reakcją i zostało zinterpretowane jako ingerencja w sprawy wewnętrzne Ukrainy. Spór o prawa mniejszości węgierskiej na Ukrainie dotyczy kwestii historycznych i tożsamościowych o ważnym znaczeniu dla obydwu stron i jest mało prawdopodobne, że przez kolejne miesiące zostanie rozwiązany. O ile sprawy te zawsze były fundamentem polityki zagranicznej Budapesztu, szczególnie wobec państw zamieszkanych przez mniejszości węgierskie, Kijów aż do 2014 roku problematykę tę bagatelizował. Jednak od rosyjskiej aneksji Krymu i agresji w Donbasie Ukraina podejmuje kompleksowe działania o charakterze dekomunizacyjnym i derusyfikacyjnym, których konsekwencją jest z jednej strony ukrainizacja przestrzeni publicznej, mediów i systemu oświaty, a z drugiej ograniczanie praw mniejszości narodowych na Ukrainie w zakresie używania języków narodowych w systemie oświaty. Z tych powodów obie strony będą raczej twardo stać na swoich stanowiskach i szukać bieżących korzyści politycznych wynikających z konfliktu, niż podejmować działania na rzecz kompromisu.

More...