Series:OSW Commentary

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German arms deliveries to Ukraine – the SPD’s controversial course

German arms deliveries to Ukraine – the SPD’s controversial course

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; military aid to Ukraine; War in Ukraine; Russia; SPD stance;

For some time now, Germany has been vigorously discussing military aid deliveries to Ukraine. The German government, which made a landmark decision in the first days of the invasion to start supplying Kyiv with weapons, became more cautious about extending military support in the following weeks of the war. Domestic pressure from the coalition parties and public opinion, as well as from Ukraine and NATO countries, have forced Chancellor Olaf Scholz to reluctantly extend its scope. German support still remains far behind that of the main NATO countries, however. The Social Democrats, who are responsible for the course of government policy, justify their restrained approach with a number of reasons. Nevertheless, it seems that behind this stance lies a conviction that Ukraine cannot fully win this war and Russia cannot completely lose it and risk being pushed to a political and economic collapse. According to the SPD’s prevailing opinion, this would lead to some potentially risky scenarios – escalation of the conflict by the use of weapons of mass destruction or the implosion of the Russian state, with unforeseeable consequences for Europe. According to the Social Democrats, the war will have to end sooner or later with peace talks, and limiting German military support for Ukraine should enable Berlin to return to its traditional role as an intermediary between Moscow and Kyiv. However, such a strategy on the part of the Chancellery is leading to a loss of Germany’s credibility in the EU and NATO, and in Ukraine also.

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The price of dependence on Russia. The economic consequences of Belarus’s complicity in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine

The price of dependence on Russia. The economic consequences of Belarus’s complicity in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; Belarus GDP; decline in GDP; The toxic economy syndrome;

In Q1 2022, Belarus’s GDP contracted by 0.4% – the first GDP decline since the end of 2020. Being Russia’s closest military ally, Belarus has made its territory available to the Russian Armed Forces, thereby joining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in it being targeted by Western sanctions. The sanctions imposed in March 2022, mainly those covering the export of timber, as well as wood, metal and steel products, have not only upheld but also expanded previous sanction packages introduced in response to the Lukashenko regime suppressing the street protests following the rigged presidential election held in 2020. As a consequence, under increasing isolation by the West in recent weeks, Minsk has lost almost all of its most profitable export categories to both EU member states and Ukraine. Moreover, Belarus’s present situation is prompting foreign investors and Belarusian companies’ business partners, which continue to operate there, to leave the Belarusian market. At present, Belarus is unable to refinance its foreign debt, which has not only resulted in a decline in foreign currency reserves, but also exacerbated solvency problems. The introduced mitigation measures are provisional and the only external source of support Belarus can count on is Russia, which itself has been affected by tough sanctions and therefore is reluctant to provide the assistance Minsk needs. As a consequence, 2022 will most likely see a profound recession in the Belarusian economy: the country’s GDP may shrink by as much as 6% or even 15%

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China’s challenges in the Indo-Pacific in the shadow of Russian aggression against Ukraine

China’s challenges in the Indo-Pacific in the shadow of Russian aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian aggression against Ukraine; China; Japan and Taiwan; Chinese propaganda;

The PRC has been in a difficult international position since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war and the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Moscow are accelerating polarisation in the world. The US global alliance system has worked effectively and there has been not only a consolidation of NATO, but also the establishment of cooperation between US pacific allies – such as Japan and Australia – and European partners. They have also delivered aid to Ukraine, which must raise concerns in Beijing that they could rely on NATO members for support in the event of an Indo-Pacific conflict. Chinese propaganda since the beginning of the war has reproduced the Russian narrative that the Alliance and Washington are responsible. The PRC is not abandoning its long-range strategic goals in the region, but the course of the aggression against Ukraine and the Western response require it to accept new realities. Above all, Beijing must recognise that the incorporation of Taiwan, which remains its priority, will not happen in the near term by means of a local ‘special operation’, but would escalate into a major international conflict for which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will not be prepared in the near future. Recognition of this fact has already resulted in a relative reduction in the current number and intensity of incidents across the Taiwan Strait for the time being.

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Weapons of mass deception Russian television propaganda in wartime

Weapons of mass deception Russian television propaganda in wartime

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian television propaganda; Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; Vladimir Putin; The Kremlin; Russian aggression against Ukraine;

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not being delivered solely along military lines but also along information lines. The Kremlin’s main weapon in this information battle is its elaborate propaganda apparatus which Vladimir Putin’s regime is using to gain and maintain the support of millions of Russians, to justify the war and to provide explanations for the persecution and genocide of Ukrainians. The most important means of spreading war propaganda within Russia is state television, which reaches a large portion of the population and has a decisive influence on their views. In wartime, the Kremlin’s propaganda has become total – the message communicated by the government-controlled media has been fully focused on the war and coordinated with the message endorsed by the state administration and major institutions such as the military and the Russian Orthodox Church. In Russia, the government-controlled media has been granted a monopoly on reporting on the events in Ukraine. When the invasion began, the few independent news outlets then operating in Russia were censored and either closed down or saw their operation in Russia suspended. The new restrictive regulations resulted in the freedom of expression on the Internet being limited. So far, using a variety of propaganda techniques and methods, the Kremlin has succeeded in achieving the goals it had set for propaganda activities carried out inside Russia. However, due to the absence of undisputed successes on the battlefield, combined with the growing number of killed and wounded Russian soldiers, along with the economic problems resulting from sanctions (which are having an adverse effect on society’s standard of living), the propaganda machine is now facing a key challenge.

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Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Production and export of food from Ukraine; War in Ukraine; Agricultural production; grain from Ukraine;

Despite the war that has been raging for more than two months, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although estimates are that the areas cultivated will be up to30% smaller than in 2021. A fuel shortage could also be a problem during this year’s harvest. Nor is it clear what the harvest will look like in the occupied territories. Currently, there is no risk of a food deficit, as the country has very significant grain stocks (about 20 million tonnes), exceeding the annual consumption for some species. However, problems may arise in this regard in the Russian-occupied areas as the occupiers have been confiscating grain. The biggest challenge for Kyiv remains the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, through which the vast majority of food (especially grains and vegetable oils) has been exported. Although the infrastructure of the most important of these ports has not suffered, it seems unlikely that they will resume operations in the coming months, even if a ceasefire was to be reached. This is because Moscow will be keen to continue the economic pressure. Ukraine will thus be forced to continue using alternative supply routes via EU countries, particularly Poland and Romania.

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Slovakia: strategic dilemmas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Slovakia: strategic dilemmas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; Russian invasion of Ukraine; raw material supplies; military and humanitarian aid to Kyiv;

The centre-right government in Bratislava decided to discontinue its long-standing policy of avoiding antagonizing Russia. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia has found itself in the vanguard of the countries most involved in providing military and humanitarian aid to Kyiv. Bratislava has expelled 35 Russian diplomats, has closed several pro-Russian websites and intensified the activity of the secret services targeting collaborators of Russian intelligence. Nevertheless, these unprecedented attempts to rid the country of Russian influence are encountering increasing resistance in Slovakia. The opposition, which leads in the polls, is calling for Slovakia to return to the policy of avoiding ‘superpower conflicts’ and is taking increasingly open pro-Russian positions. This way it meets the mood of a large section of the Slovak public who are distrustful of the US. Inside the government, there are concerns about how a rapid end of the reliance on supplies of Russian raw materials will affect the domestic economy and this is making it difficult to reach a consensus on how quickly this should proceed. Halfway through its term in power, the centre-right parties are facing strategic decisions that will also determine their chances of re-election. If the current approach towards Kyiv and the Kremlin is maintained, Slovakia’s position in the EU will strengthen and Russia’s influence in this country may also weaken in the long run. The government, which is not very popular, will have to face the challenge of continuing the effort to become independent of Russian raw material supplies amid an economic downturn and the strong polarisation of public sentiments at home. An alternative may be the continuation of military and humanitarian support for Kyiv, while only simulating activities aimed at energy diversification.

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Germany and the crisis of globalisation: adjustment strategies

Germany and the crisis of globalisation: adjustment strategies

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Globalisation; Dependence on foreign trade; economic and political dependencies;

Germany is among the biggest beneficiaries of the global economic system based on free trade and on cross-border organisation of production. However, the functioning of this system has been recently disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has highlighted the vulnerability of excessively stretched supply chains. It has also been hit hard by Russia’s attack on Ukraine and by the resulting sanctions, which are aggravating supply-related problems and stoking political divisions between the major powers. All of these forces may lead to the global economy splitting into competing platforms, and to the logic of cost optimisation being abandoned infavour of risk mitigation. If this happens, Germany would face a difficult strategic dilemma and embark on one of the following three options. The first option would involve defending the increasingly unstable status quo and the benefits of exchange patterns associated with it. In the second option, Berlin could favour a political and military consolidation of the West, and at the same time let businesses operate freely and move between the competing platforms. The third option involves taking part in the creation of an alliance of democratic states, accompanied by partial de-globalisation and an overhaul of the present economic model. While this is the most radical scenario, in the context of the continuously expanding sanction regime targeting Moscow and the mounting chaos in global supply networks (caused by China’s pandemic restrictions), its likelihood is increasing.

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NATO member states on arms deliveries to Ukraine

NATO member states on arms deliveries to Ukraine

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymański,Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO member states; US arms deliveries; European military assistance; War in Ukraine; Germany; Ukrainian Armed Forces;

The NATO member states do not have a common position concerning sending arms supplies to Ukraine. In January, under increasing military pressure from Russia, it was the US, the UK, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic and Poland which decided to deliver weapons and ammunition to Kyiv free of charge. Apart from being a political demonstration of solidarity, these supplies are intended to show to Russia that further military actions against Ukraine will incur increased costs. Moreover, these deliveries will strengthen Ukrainian ground forces if the Russian military operation in Donbass is expanded, but will not play a major role in the event of a full-scale invasion or missile attacks on Ukraine. Germany and some other member states are still rejecting arms supplies to Ukraine due to the fear of a further deterioration of the relations with Moscow.

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Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China

Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: trade conflict; Germany; Lithuania; Chinese government’s trade boycott; Germany’s trade;

The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. However, Berlin is unlikely to take any decisive actions – such as pushing through retaliation – due to its huge dependence on the Chinese market, as well as differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should tale. Thus Germany will limit itself to diplomatic efforts, counting that the actions taken at the EU level by the European Commission and the French presidency of the EU Council will be effective.

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A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis

A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Germany; natural gas; gas imports; LNG; Nord Stream 2; Germany’s primary energy consumption;

The German economy is heavily dependent on natural gas, almost all of which it purchases from foreign suppliers. More than half of this is from Russia. For years, Germany underestimated the dangerous degree of its gas dependence on Russia because it was convinced that the two countries had common interests. The absence of the adequate diversification of supply sources has proven to be a mistake in Berlin’s energy policy. Stoked by Moscow, the European gas crisis has affected Germany and other countries. Combined with the threat of renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine, it made Germany increasingly aware of the scale of this dependence. Although the country’s energy cooperation with Russia will not change fundamentally in the short term, it is now more likely that Germany will take real action to reduce its vulnerability to similar crises in the future. Although it is likely to be only a provisional move, Berlin’s decision to freeze the certification process of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) indicates that its perception of Russia as a partner in energy cooperation is also changing.

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Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war

Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Russo-Ukrainian war; balancing between extremes;

Turkey’s official attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict (it has shown support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, including in the UN, and provided material aid), but it has also avoided any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests (no sanctions, its airspace remains open, etc.). Turkey has officially called for a political solution to the conflict (it initiated and hosted talks between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers on 10 March). This policy resembles Ankara’s traditional approach: nurturing and protecting its extensive political, economic and military relations with both Kyiv and Moscow, while balancing and playing off the West’s and Russia’s interests without formally breaking ties with either side. In the current situation, this attitude appears as an expression of Turkey’s alarmed stance at the prospect that the conflict between Russia and the West might escalate; that the Turkish economy could collapse; and above all, that the war might have disastrous results for Turkey’s security in the Middle East.

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The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU gas market; War in Ukraine; Russian gas shipments;

Neither the ongoing war in Ukraine nor the rising tensions between Russia and the West and the sanctions imposed by the latter have yet translated into disruptions of Russian gas supplies to the EU. However, they are unequivocally deepening the crisis on the EU gas market, which has been evident for more than six months now. This is evidenced by the record high and volatile commodity prices, as well as the nervousness of all the market players who anticipate disruptions in supplies from Russia and react with panic to suggestions of imposing sanctions aimed at Russian gas exports. The aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant restructuring of the gas policy of the EU as a whole and most of its individual member states. There is a return to thinking in terms of security of supply – which has largely been absent in recent years – and a determination to become independent of gas and other hydrocarbons from Russia. Although at present many EU countries are not prepared to embargo imports of Russian gas, most are reforming their energy policies in such a way as to minimise their dependence on Russian raw materials.

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Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor

Ukrainian society rallies against the aggressor

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian invasion against Ukraine; Ukrainian society; migration;

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian society, as well as the military, central and local authorities, have demonstrated courage and determination in standing up to the aggressor, and displayed the ability to take effective action in extremely difficult conditions. Despite Russia’s military advantage, the brutality of its army and the enormous scale of destruction and casualties suffered by the Ukrainian people, the prevailing attitudes are rage against the invader and pride in their country, people and army. A large stream of refugees, primarily women and children, has poured out of Ukraine, but those who have remained in the country are putting up stiff resistance, even in cities that have already been occupied by the enemy. ‘Grassroots work’ is also progressing steadily with various forms of self-organisation and solidarity, together with support for the army and internally displaced persons. These attitudes – contrary to Moscow’s expectations – are also being adopted by the residents and authorities of the eastern Ukrainian regions most affected by the war, most of whom are Russian speakers. Throughout the country, a fellowship of hatred is forming rapidly – not only towards the Russian state, the Russian authorities and the invading army, but also towards almost everything Russian, thus crystallizing the myth of a reborn Ukraine as an ‘anti-Russia’. Such attitudes do not bode well for plans to occupy the country by Russian troops. Even if some territories are seized and puppet administrations are installed, Russia will have to face a strong resistance movement, which will sharply increase the costs of such a project.

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Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Putin; Russia's aggression against Ukraine; Russia’s attitude; invasion;

Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. The resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society is high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia are causing an economic crisis and the partial political isolation of the country. There are many indications that this situation has largely come as a surprise to the Kremlin, which has fallen victim to faulty analysis and forecasting. In this situation, the man responsible for the decision to invade, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, faces the challenge of which further tactics of action to choose. It is now difficult to predict further developments, as these will depend particularly on the level of Ukrainian resistance, the scale of Western support and the immediate effects of sanctions. Of the many possible scenarios, the most likely now seems to be that of either halting the Russian offensive once a political agreement to implement some of the Kremlin’s political demands has been reached; or continuing it for a longer period of time, leading to Russia’s seizure of significant areas (especially the south-east of Ukraine) and the destruction of key elements of its military and civil infrastructure, turning the country into a failed state.

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War dictatorship: power and society in Russia

War dictatorship: power and society in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska),Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Society; information blockade on Russian society; Kremlin’s propaganda offensive; suppression of anti-war protests;

With the start of the war against Ukraine, the Putin regime is taking on more and more features of a totalitarian system. The authorities are aiming for a total information blockade and a ‘rally around the flag’, including through the use of a massive propaganda campaign that is demonising Ukraine and the West. The degree of repression against the disloyal elements of society is growing. The few anti-war protests occurring in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been nipped in the bud. One of the direct consequences of the invasion is the increase in emigration from Russia for political reasons. Although there is a lack of reliable sociological data on the real mood in Russian society, one can see a relatively high level of support for the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine or else passive acceptance of the Kremlin’s policy. Although society is beginning to suffer from the effects of Western sanctions (they include rapidly rising prices of basic products and a shortage of goods), there is no reason to expect any mass protests on economic grounds in the near future. The situation within the ruling elite also appears stable, despite the deep frustration among many groups of influence caused by the sanctions. Western restrictive measures have significantly raised the cost of participation in the Putin regime. Anti-war calls from the representatives of the establishment are few and far between, and they usually avoid direct criticism of the Kremlin, which maintains the ability to discipline those who are discontented. The narrow circle of decision makers, which comprises mainly the heads of secret services and law enforcement bodies, seems to fully share the objectives and methods of war set out by the president.

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The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

The economic consequences of the war: a profound crisis looming for Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; military aggression against Ukraine; sanctions against Russia; Russian economy; The Kremlin; high oil prices;

In retaliation for its military aggression against Ukraine Russia has been sanctioned by around 50 countries, which accounted for half of Russia’s foreign trade and were of key importance to the stability of its capital market. The sanctions have hit the foundations of the Russian economy, principally targeting the financial market. The measures have affected every single sector of the economy, and the negative consequences of most of these measures have been immediate. Undoubtedly, this came as a major surprise to the Kremlin, especially as the scale of the sanctions considerably exceeded the scale of possible restrictions hinted at ahead of the invasion. It can be expected that as long as Russia continues to attack Ukraine, further restrictions will be imposed on it, including on its raw material sector.

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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: The war in Ukraine; NATO; Germany’s security policy; Bundeswehr;

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undermined the principle of German policy based on the notion that “the security of Europe can only be built with Russia, not against it”. Most German elites have come to understand that Putin’s Russia is not only a challenge but also a threat to NATO, and that investments in national defence and bolstering collective defence are therefore necessary. However, when it comes to supporting Ukraine and raising the costs of the current war for Russia, the German government continues to factor into its calculations its own dependence on Russian oil and gas and the resistance of some in the SPD to supplying Kyiv with weapons. Berlin still fails to see that the Kremlin’s defeat in this war is necessary to ensure long-term security in Europe.

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An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?

An attempt to “deoligarchise” Ukraine – real action or a game of pretence?

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: The Ukrainian oligarchs; The Oligarchs Act; tax changes; Volodymyr Zelensky;

Over the past year, President Volodymyr Zelensky has changed his rhetoric towards representatives of big business, commonly referred to as oligarchs. He has made a shift from the position of a neutral arbiter to uttering slogans about combating their excessive influence on politics and the economy. On 5 November, he signed the Oligarchs Act, intended at limiting their influence on politics. In addition, an act amending tax regulations is to be passed in the near future, which will reduce the profits of those who own assets in the iron ore mining sector. However, the solutions adopted are largely of a populist nature and are unlikely to diminish the importance of the oligarchs. Instead, they may prove to be a convenient instrument for the ruling camp to put pressure on big business to ensure its loyalty. This will be crucial if Zelensky, contrary to the announcements he made during the election campaign, decides to seek re-election, which is becoming more and more likely.

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Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays

Digitalisation in Germany: an overview and what lies behind the delays

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; digitalization; new government;

The adaptation of the economy and the state to new information technologies – next to the energy transformation (Energiewende) – is viewed as one of the greatest civilisational challenges Germany is currently facing. However, progress in this area is lagging behind expectations: it fails to match the level of GDP per capita in relation to Germany’s competitors in the EU, the country’s export-oriented economy or its ambition to be Europe’s economic and political leader. The problems with digitalisation are not due to financial constraints. Their causes are much deeper: the approach to innovation, the lack of specialists on the labour market, Germans’ sense of unease towards new technologies, as well as previous mistakes made during the development of the transmission infrastructure.

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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Moscow; Kyiv; Kremlin's policy towards Ukraine; geopolitics; Volodymyr Zelensky;

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

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