Series:PISM Bulletin

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Reform of the European Court of Human Rights

Reform of the European Court of Human Rights

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: ECHR; human rights; reform;

Protocol No. 15 to the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR), which entered into force on 1 August, was to improve the functioning of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), including by accelerating the examination of cases. However, some of the changes made by it may have the opposite effect. The protocol does not solve the problem of overloading the ECtHR with incoming complaints. The reform should be thus continued by, for example, more effective resolution by states of systemic problems identified by the ECtHR.

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EU Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: Needs and Challenges

EU Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: Needs and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Afghanistan; humanitarian aid; needs; challenges;

The Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country. Afghans are struggling now with forced displacement as well as a food and health crisis. The EU will increase its humanitarian aid, but its effectiveness will be limited by dangerous working conditions for NGOs. This requires an agreement with the Taliban to respect humanitarian law.

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Prospects for U.S.-EU Tech Cooperation

Prospects for U.S.-EU Tech Cooperation

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; EU; Tech Cooperation; AI; security;

The European Union is strengthening tech cooperation with the United States through the recently appointed Trade and Technology Council, among others. New transatlantic projects and greater coordination in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), securing supply chains, and cybersecurity are elements of a broader strategy aimed at competing with China on technology. The biggest challenge for the EU and U.S. will be in coordinating their policies towards large tech companies, including planned European competition legislation for the digital market that will impact American firms.

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The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Central Asia; region; security;

From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.

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Prospects for Belarus-Ukraine Relations

Prospects for Belarus-Ukraine Relations

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Ukraine; relations; prospects; Bilateral relations; EU;

Belarusian-Ukrainian relations began to deteriorate last August when Belarus handed over to Russia - instead of Ukraine - pro-Russia mercenaries detained in Minsk who were fighting in Donbas. Ukraine has joined the EU’s sanctions regime against Belarus and the countries have enacted mutual trade restrictions. Bilateral relations are likely to deteriorate further.

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The CCP’s Tightening of Control over China’s IT Sector

The CCP’s Tightening of Control over China’s IT Sector

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Communist Party; CCP; IT; economy;

Contrary to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) expectations that China will develop production of semiconductors, robots, and artificial intelligence (AI), the local IT sector has been most successful in creating social networking and trade-support platforms. The CCP is concerned about the growing political and economic influence of IT companies and their leaders, especially the potential of the data processed there. Consequently, it has adopted new regulations, started investigations of companies, and enacted repression of Chinese CEOs with the aim of subjugating the sector to the state.

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The Future Development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

The Future Development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Shanghai; future development; cooperation organisation; SCO; EU;

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in its 20 years of operation has not had a lasting impact on security in Central Asia, serving mainly as a forum for political consultations between Russia and China with the countries of the region. The SCO has only to a limited extent achieved the goals assumed at its creation, including stabilisation of the region and fighting terrorism and crime. Russia and China have developed other instruments to influence the situation in Central Asia, independent from the SCO. However, the organisation is an important instrument for creating legitimacy for their policies towards the countries of the region, as well as in limiting the influence of the EU and the U.S.

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Party of Action and Solidarity Gains Full Power: The Opening Record of the Pro-European Government in Moldova

Party of Action and Solidarity Gains Full Power: The Opening Record of the Pro-European Government in Moldova

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; Pro-European government; party of action;

The election of President Maia Sandu in November 2020 and the success of her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in the July 2021 parliamentary elections have for the first time given full control of the state to a party willing to implement pro-European reforms in Moldova. This creates a favourable situation in which, with the support of Poland and other active, willing countries, EU eastern policy may be more effective and result in more easily attained and tangible results in the democratic transformation of Moldova.

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Costly Neglect: The German Political Scene Grapples with Afghanistan

Costly Neglect: The German Political Scene Grapples with Afghanistan

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Germany; political scene; costly neglect; CDU;

An incorrect assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and the delayed evacuation of Germanpersonnel and their associates have contributed to the decline in CDU/CSU ratings. The ChristianDemocrats’ standing is also made more difficult by the prospect of restarting the debate onmigration policy, which is still controversial within the party. Criticism of the government’sactions by the opposition during the campaign and the low popularity of Armin Laschet, theleader of the Christian Democrats, may jeopardise the party’s victory in the Bundestag electionsin September.

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Prospects for a Modification of EU Fiscal Rules

Prospects for a Modification of EU Fiscal Rules

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; fiscal rules; prospects; modification; COVID-19;

Confronted with the economic crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU Member States decided to increase public spending which, due to low interest rates, they could finance through debt on attractive terms. These circumstances favour the calls for reform of EU fiscal rules that impose limits related to deficit and public debt. Modifications will most probably focus on making more room for growth enhancing spending (green and digital transitions, education).

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Discrepancies between Poland and Germany on Nuclear Energy

Discrepancies between Poland and Germany on Nuclear Energy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Germany; nuclear energy; discrepancies;

Poland and Germany have different views about nuclear energy. In Poland, it is meant to be the key to decarbonisation. Germany, though, has been phasing out nuclear energy and transitioning to other sources. German politicians also encourage other countries to abandon nuclear, reflecting German society’s anti-nuclear sentiments and the country’s economic interests. The Bundestag elections will not change this view, but the growing power of the Greens might intensify this course.

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Zapad 2021: Comprehensive Drills Aimed at NATO Countries

Zapad 2021: Comprehensive Drills Aimed at NATO Countries

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; West; 2021; NATO; USSR;

The active phase of the Belarusian-Russian Zapad 2021 exercises ended on 16 September. They were the largest manoeuvres in Russia’s western strategic direction since the collapse of the USSR. They were accompanied by hybrid actions aimed mainly at the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank, and they will continue after the manoeuvres. It was also another demonstration of Russia’s readiness to use force against the Alliance and a presentation of the high degree of interoperability of the armed forces of both countries. For NATO, the deepening military integration of Russia and Belarus requires an update of the Alliance’s defence plans and continued reinforcement of its Eastern Flank.

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Arab Gulf States and the Situation in Afghanistan

Arab Gulf States and the Situation in Afghanistan

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arab Gulf States; Afghanistan; situation; EU;

Arab state authorities are refraining from making unequivocal declarations about the future of relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. The priority of the Arab leadership in the Persian Gulf will be to prevent the destabilisation of Afghanistan and to influence the Afghan government policy towards terrorist organisations. Given the convergence of EU and Arab state goals related to countering the threat of terrorism in the country, the Union could include them in the announced regional platform for cooperation on Afghanistan.

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The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa

The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Africa; military missions; situation; impact;

The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.

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Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latin America; Vaccines; COVID-19; diplomacy; vaccine;

The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.

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A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Saudi Arabia; foreign policy; new government; region;

Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.

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Cautious Triumphalism: China on Afghanistan

Cautious Triumphalism: China on Afghanistan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Talibans; China; EU; USA; foreign policy; military policy;

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the end of the U.S. military mission is being used by China as evidence of the failure of American interventionism. Chinese propaganda emphasises the advantage of its own model of relations with other countries, marked by the declared lack of interference in their internal affairs. The Chinese authorities do not want to engage economically in Afghanistan for the time being, as they do not believe that the Taliban will provide efficient administration or security for possible investments. China instead will focus on political support and limited humanitarian aid in cooperation with regional countries, as well as with the EU.

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Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations

Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Armenia; relations; normalisation; prospects;

The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.

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Prospects for ISIS in Afghanistan

Prospects for ISIS in Afghanistan

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; ISIS; destabilisation; security; governance;

The ISIS faction Khorasan Province, ISIS-K, is using Afghanistan’s internal destabilisation to grow its structures in the region. It will mobilise supporters from neighbouring countries to challenge the strength of the Taliban and their ally Al-Qaida. ISIS-K is much weaker than them but aspires for a greater role through the escalating use of violence. By controlling part of Afghanistan, ISIS-K intends to build structures like those in Syria and Iraq in 2013-2019. The success of these plans would further threaten the security of the countries of Central and South Asia and increase the terrorist threat to Europe.

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Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Taliban; Afghanistan; governance; security;

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighborhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.

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