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Russia Suspends the New START Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russia’s groundless suspension of the Russia-U.S. Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) is yet another attempt to intimidate the West with nuclear weapons. By threatening an arms race, Russia seeks to force concessions regarding Ukraine. It is unable, however, to gain meaningful strategic advantage over the U.S. in such a race. It would entail costs for both sides, but they would be more severe for Russia, which is much weaker economically and further weakened by war and sanctions.

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№94: Much Ado About Very Little? Migration-Linked Development Assistance - the Cases of Poland and Norway

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

In response to the migration management crisis that peaked in Europe in 2015-2016, the EU institutions and some European states promised to address the “root causes of migration”, with development assistance seen as an important tool in that respect. By comparing the development cooperation policies of Poland and Norway, this paper shows how the development-migration nexus has been implemented in practice by new and traditional donors alike. Despite important differences at the rhetorical level, neither state has substantially changed their development cooperation to link it directly to migration interests. This demonstrates the limited usefulness of the “root causes of migration” approach.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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№131: EU Tackles Changes in Global Economic Competition

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Shaken by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the EU has adopted a series of legal acts to reduce dependence on authoritarian powers, create new instruments to defend against unfair competition, and facilitate the modernisation of the industrial sector. The smooth implementation of the green and digital transitions will be crucial to the success of these measures, but it requires additional financial resources. Furthermore, the drive to increase self-sufficiency in strategic sectors and build a low-carbon, sustainable economy is difficult to reconcile with a liberal approach focused on deregulation and short-term profit maximisation.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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№196: “Decoupling” in Chinese: Challenges for China’s Economy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In the long-term economic development plans adopted in March this year, the Chinese authorities emphasised the need to expand China’s internal potential to reduce its interdependence on the U.S. and other partners - a decoupling. However, they tend to take a conservative approach to challenges related to indebtedness, lack of innovation, consumption, and demographic changes. Instead of proposing market reforms, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is systematically increasing its control over the economy. In foreign cooperation, they find it important to maintain the level of exports in the context of China’s share in global value chains, as well as to acquire technology. For the EU, this means the necessity to implement new market-protection mechanisms, and in the longer term transfer production from China to the EU.

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Negotiations Resume to Resolve the Crisis in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The meeting of representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition on 26 November in Mexico City marked a return to formal negotiations on overcoming the crisis in Venezuela. The parties agreed to establish a humanitarian fund and announced talks on presidential elections in 2024, among other issues. In response, the U.S. announced a conditional relief of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector. Further lifting of restrictions, depending on concessions from the regime of Nicolás Maduro, may be important for the global oil market, although only in a few years’ time.

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In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

In the annual address on the state of the Union, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced the continuation of support for Ukraine. Though the EC strives to minimise the economic fallout of the Russian aggression, it complicates the implementation of the Union’s projects and is likely to worsen citizens’ living standards.

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Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

On 20-21 June, the 7th Summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held in Riga, attended by representatives of all countries involved in this format. They focused on actions to increase the effectiveness of the TSI and the competitiveness of the region, but also discussed security issues and a commitment to Ukraine, which has been granted participating partner status in the initiative. The importance of TSI cooperation with the U.S. and Germany is also growing. During the summit, the Polish-Latvian Chamber of Commerce was unveiled.

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Deal Signed to Unblock Ukrainian Grain Exports

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

At the initiative of the UN Secretary-General, the countries of Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiye reached an agreement on 22 July to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. However, the resumption of trade is not a foregone conclusion and will depend primarily on the goodwill of the Russian side, which may sabotage the implementation of the agreement by military means.

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The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.

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EU Reaction to Russia’s Military Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 24-25 February, an extraordinary summit of the European Council (EUCO) took place in Brussels to discuss the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The EU has adopted strong economic sanctions that will reduce Russia’s financial reserves in the long term. However, they would be more effective if the EU decided to cut off Russian banks immediately from the SWIFT system, a global channel of encrypted communication between financial institutions. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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EU Financial Sanctions on Russia’s Banking Sector

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

On 2 March, the EU published further financial restrictions against Russia adopted in the scope of a third package of sanctions, including those related to the SWIFT system. Despite ambitious declarations at the European Council on 24-25 February, EU sanctions in the banking sector are selective, and the most important EU action so far has been to freeze the reserves of the Central Bank of Russia. To increase the problems of the Russian banking sector, the EU should freeze the assets of all major banks in Russia and cut off its entire sector from SWIFT. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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Kolejne przedterminowe wybory parlamentarne w Grecji

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): Polish

25 czerwca br. odbyły się drugie z kolei przedterminowe wybory do Parlamentu Grecji. Wygrała je centroprawicowa i proeuropejska Nowa Demokracja – partia Kiriakosa Mitsotakisa, premiera od lipca 2019 r. do maja 2023 r. W przeciwieństwie do poprzednich wyborów z 21 maja br. wynik obecnych umożliwił mu powołanie samodzielnego gabinetu i i27 czerwca został on zaprzysiężony. Dalsze rządy Nowej Demokracji przyniosą zapewne kolejne reformy sprzyjające rozwojowi gospodarki. Oznaczać będą także utrzymanie dotychczasowej polityki zagranicznej i obronnej Grecji.

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Unijny plan zwiększenia produkcji amunicji

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

23 marca przywódcy państw UE zaakceptowali plan zwiększenia dostaw amunicji artyleryjskiej dla Ukrainy i odbudowy rezerw w Europie. Dzięki temu powinno dojść do uwolnienia niewykorzystanych jeszcze rezerw i przekazania ich Ukrainie oraz zwiększenia produkcji w państwach europejskich. Jest to kolejna inicjatywa pomocy wojskowej UE dla Ukrainy finansowana ze środków Europejskiego Instrumentu na rzecz Pokoju (EPF). Jej powodzenie wymagać będzie dalszego zaangażowania państw członkowskich i instytucji UE, tak aby zmienić dotychczasowy tryb pracy producentów amunicji w Europie.

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Socijalna uključenost povratnica u Bosni i Hercegovini - Razvijanje mjera za aktivno trište rada sa fokusom na povratnice

Author(s): Besima Borić / Language(s): Bosnian

Odgovoriti na pitanje koje je mjere aktivne politike zapošljavanja, sa fokusom na žene povratnice, potrebno poduzeti i predložiti, traži i odgovor na nekoliko bitnih i nezaobilaznih pitanja koja zadiru u samu bit života i rada u Bosni i Hercegovini. Događaji iz nedavne prošlosti, politička volja, ustavno uređenje, institucionalna i pravna spremnost, ekonomska razvijenost, perspektive evropskog puta i zakonske usklađenosti sa evropskim standardima, povratak kao takav, položaj žena općenito i specifično u oblasti rada i zapošljavanja, briga o ljudima, koordinacija resornih subjekata po vertikali i horizontali, itd. Sve su ovo pitanja koja utiču na ovu oblast. Ovaj rad nema ambiciju odgovoriti na sve njih niti dati rješenja za niz nezavršenih i nedorečenih, a uvezanih procesa, koji, više ili manje, bitno utiču i na pitanja u fokusu ove analize, ali ima ambiciju snano naglasiti bitnost stanja u svim nabrojanim oblastim, kao kočnice u bržem rješavanju pitanja rada i zapošljavanja povratnika, i svakako, poloaja žena u tom kontekstu. Ipak, da bi odgovorili na pitanje u fokusu, ova analiza će se pozabaviti pitanjem povratka općenito u Bosni i Hercegovini, te položajem povratnika i povratnica, kao i pitanjem (ne)zaposlenosti općenito, sa fokusom na položaj žena, a posebno povratnica, na bosanskohercegovačkom trištu rada.

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Kdy zavést euro: co nejdříve nebo co nejpozději?

Author(s): Petr Pavlík / Language(s): Czech

The paper discusses the optimal timing for the Czech Republic to adopt the euro as its currency, after joining the European Union in 2004. It argues that the country should not rush to join the eurozone, but also should not delay it unnecessarily. It identifies the main obstacle as the high public budget deficits, which require a radical reform of public finances, especially the pension and health care systems. It also stresses the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, real convergence, and economic growth in the process of nominal convergence. It concludes that the plan of the Czech National Bank and the Ministry of Finance to introduce the euro in 2009-2010 is reasonable and realistic.

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Japan and the Visegrad 4: the unsensational strategic partners

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): English

The paper points to the convergence between the Visegrad 4 (V4) and Japan that is driven by economic concerns and shared views on global political challenges. The Japanese pro-active European strategy arises from the high relevance of the EU in Japanese economic global policy, and also as a reaction to the increasing Chinese global influence, and the rising US protectionism. The Japanese European policy also reached Central Europe as Japan established a regional cooperation platform with the V4 states. This paper discusses the potential, as well as the real prospects of Japan’s rising interest in the V4 group. Japan is the leading Asian investor in Czechia and Poland. The V4 states ought to benefit from the multi-level structure of the developing ties with Japan. Promoting cooperation with Japan ought to be a theme for the Czech V4 presidency. The V4+Japan format is asymmetrical and there is no clear vision for its institutionalizing, but individual benefits from it for individual V4 states on the bilateral level are available, and the V4 states should take advantage of them. The EU-Japan level stimulating economic effect of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) is obvious, and Europe could gain more from stronger ties with Japan. Such a rapprochement, however, does not divert Japan and the EU from their understanding of China and the building of their ties with this stronger Asian stakeholder.

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Putin’s War, Extended

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

This has been going on for 6 months now and the last period has been almost a stalemate. However, there have been other events taking place elsewhere, particularly in the case of China. They were very angry with the US Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, a senior member of the administration, deigning to visit Taiwan against their wishes. They threw a tantrum and gave a military demonstration of their short-term aim to absorb the island which they consider as a breakaway province, in no way an independent country.

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2022 North Macedonia: Country’s Future is Laid Out

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

On 8 September 2022, North Macedonia marked the 31st anniversary of declaration of independence. Year 2017 was a milestone in the modern Macedonian history. The regime of Nikola Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE), who remained in power from 2006 to 2017, collapsed. A new government headed by Prime Minister Zoran Zaev (SDSM) was established. With the signing of the Prespa Agreement Zoran Zaev and Alexis Tsipras defeated the doctrine pursued by Slobodan Milošević and Constantine Mitsotakis, with the assistance of some Macedonian political parties, which did not envisage existence of Macedonia as a state and Macedonians as a people. The full-fledged membership in NATO fulfilled century long dream of Macedonians and other citizens to have their own state whose territorial integrity and sovereignty would be guaranteed by the biggest and strongest politico-military alliance in the world- NATO. This provided for defeat of hegemonic projects that involved or included aspirations with respect to North Macedonia.

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