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Congress Key to U.S. Support for Ukraine One Year After the Russian Invasion

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives may slow down or reduce American support for Ukraine. The problem is not only the opposition of some Republicans to the assistance itself but above all, the attempts to reduce budget expenditures and reduce the deficit. This may prompt the Biden administration to use the approved funds sparingly and provide only the most necessary elements of support for fear that Congress will not allocate additional funds before the next fiscal year.

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Cooperation despite mistrust. The shadow of Trianon in Romanian-Hungarian relations

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

On 3 November, the Romanian parliament declared that 4 June would be a new public holiday commemorating the signing of the Treaty of Trianon on that day in 1920. This document formalised the transfer of large territories then belonging to the Hungarian part of Austria-Hungary to the neighbouring countries, including Romania. These lands today constitute over 40% of Romania’s land area. Over the past two years, preparations for the 100th anniversary of the treaty’s adoption have exacerbated the relationship between Romania and Hungary, which perceives this event as a national tragedy. The two states’ widely divergent perceptions of the treaty, and the presence in Romania of a large and politically active Hungarian minority as its result, are a constant source of tensions between the two countries. The Hungarian problem, symbolised by the aforementioned document, resonates throughout society, and has traditionally been exploited as an instrument of political struggle by representatives of the main Romanian political groups. Budapest has also been willing to exploit the ‘Trianon complex’ in the Hungarian mentality for its domestic political aims. However, Hungarian politics does not constitute a real threat to the stability of Romania in the current international environment. The geographic location of both countries obliges them to cooperate, especially in the fields of economy and energy, which mitigates their historical and symbolic disputes.

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The regime’s fight to survive: 100 days of political crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The massive public protests against the rigging of the presidential election’s results which began on 9 August have led to the deepest political crisis in the history of independent Belarus. For the first time, a situation has arisen in which anti-regime demonstrations have been held for over three months, numbering over 100,000 people in the capital at the times of greatest mobilisation. Despite the fall in the number of protesters observed in recent weeks, the public’s anger is not waning, which is making it difficult for the authorities to control society. In response to the rebellion by a large number of its citizens, the regime has chosen the tactics of repression and intimidation. As a result, Belarusian authoritarianism is becoming more and more oppressive, gradually taking on the characteristics of a militia state. As he concentrates on keeping power, Alyaksandr Lukashenka has come to rely principally on the security sector, who see preserving the regime as a chance to hold onto their own privileges. In parallel to the increasing importance of the so-called siloviki in the government apparatus, Lukashenka has weakened the position of the civilian element of the nomenklatura. The regime is also pursuing an increasingly confrontational policy towards the West, to make it seem more credible that the protests have been inspired from abroad; in the economic sphere, economic reforms have been blocked as the regime focuses on controlling business. Lukashenka’s future maybe decided by Russia, which is trying to use the crisis in the Belarusian system of power to gain full domination in Belarus.

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Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Over the last few years, Tallinn has been increasingly involved in military cooperation in the EU and with France. To date, Estonia is the only country on NATO’s eastern flank to join the French-led European Intervention Initiative. The country is developing the European pillar of its security policy with a view to diversifying military cooperation, which has centred primarily around the US and UK. This is due to Estonia’s concerns about the future of their military posture in Europe. However, due to the leading role of the US and UK in NATO’s deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, working with the two countries will continue to be Estonia’s security policy priority.

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The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.

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The Upcoming Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the Challenges of Brexit and the Pandemic

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The projected victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the upcoming national parliamentary elections heralds the second independence referendum in a decade. The divergent and sometimes mutually excluding policies of Brexit and pandemic implemented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative UK government and the SNP’s Scottish government under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon are the key contexts for the coming election campaign. After the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU on 24 December 2020 and the commencement of mass coronavirus vaccinations, Johnson’s priority is to reintegrate the British union. For Poland, it is essential that the United Kingdom maintains political stability and credibility as an ally.

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Ecology and Growth: Macron’s Dilemma before Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Protection of the environment is increasingly influencing the voting preferences of the French. The initiatives put forward by the authorities, such as subsidies for zero-emission cars or the reduction of dependence on nuclear energy, aim to reconcile economic growth with a commitment to the environment. The current environmental policy of President Emmanuel Macron, although criticised both by environmentalists and business interests, may gain voter recognition and favour the development of French non-carbon technologies.

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Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.

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The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.

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The Significance of the Energy Charter Treaty and Perspective for Reform

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) allows energy companies to protect their foreign investments in fossil fuels, among others. It is controversial, though, because the treaty makes it difficult for its parties to implement ambitious climate policy and decarbonise their economies. The current debate on reforming the ECT creates an opportunity to amend the treaty to better fit the EU’s - and Poland’s - needs. However, if the negotiations are delayed further, it would be advisable to abandon the treaty.

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Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.

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On the Training Areas of the Union State of Belarus and Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In August and September, Russia and Belarus conducted intensive military exercises. In the case of Belarus, the organisation of some of them was dictated by the post-election crisis and the desire to demonstrate that its military is ready to respond to external threats. In the case of Russia, these were planned exercises, which functioned as another signal to neighbouring countries and NATO about the high capabilities of its armed forces. Most of the manoeuvres were based on scenarios aimed at Alliance countries.

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Parliamentary Elections in Myanmar: A Challenge for EU Policy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Myanmar on 8 November are likely to be won by the currently ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the party will probably receive fewer votes than it did in 2015. A weaker electoral mandate and further isolation from Western countries will strengthen the military’s role, weaken democratisation, and will be conducive to increasing China’s influence. To prevent this, the EU may consider resuming cooperation with the civilian authorities despite accusations that it is persecuting the Rohingya minority. Greater engagement by the EU in Myanmar and closer cooperation with partners in Asia may give the Union more influence over the situation in that country than continued isolation of Aung San Suu Kyi.

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Intra-Afghan Negotiations: Peace at the Cost of Democracy?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban, launched on 12 September, are now the best chance to end the 20-year civil war in Afghanistan. It is possible, however, that the price of peace will be that the Taliban assumes a decisive role in the country, and that the present democratic system of government is dismantled. The Taliban’s position in the negotiations is strengthened by plans to end the foreign military presence in Afghanistan, internal conflicts in the democratic camp in Kabul, and the Taliban’s own growing military leverage. The support of states and organisations for the future government of Afghanistan will be crucial to preserving at least some of the achievements of the last 20 years.

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Devolution in the UK and the Combined Challenges of Pandemic and Brexit

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Brexit and the pandemic pose the two most important challenges for UK domestic politics today. While Brexit policy has been controlled by central-government institutions, the response to the pandemic has been formulated by a number of mutually independent central, national, and regional institutions. Consequently, the national and regional elections in May 2021 have been increasingly concentrating on devolved health and education policies as well as on partly decentralised economic and fiscal ones. In the pandemic context, these policies have become the most important catalysts for separatism in Britain in the last 30 years. In Scotland, the election may open the way to its independence and the destabilisation of Britain as an important ally of Poland.

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French Authorities Playing a Risky Game with Security

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The sense of insecurity among the French public amid the pandemic and terrorist threat improves the electoral chances of the right-wing opposition. As President Emmanuel Macron is seeking re-election in 2022, he has responded with laws aiming at defending the secularism of the state and boosting the role of law enforcement. Some of the proposed solutions, such as an interdiction on disseminating images of police officers, have provoked controversy. The government’s narrative may also have a negative impact on France’s foreign policy

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What will be the Consequences of Prigozhin’s Death?

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 23 August, in Tver Oblast in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin were likely killed when their airplane crashed. The ends of the leaders of the Wagner Group should be linked to the unsuccessful rebellion carried out by Prigozhin two months ago. As a result of the attack, Vladimir Putin will temporarily strengthen his position, and Prigozhin’s assets will be transferred to the president’s trusted individuals.

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New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Australia on 21 May were won by the opposition Labour Party, led by Anthony Albanese, who became the new prime minister. The end of the nine-year liberal-national Coalition is unlikely to mean, however, significant changes in foreign policy, including in relations with the U.S. or China. On the other hand, the new government’s more ambitious climate policy may strengthen Australia’s partnership with the European Union.

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Mass Protests in Kazakhstan

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The protests that erupted in the west of Kazakhstan in early January spread to the rest of the country and took on an anti-government character. The consequences of them include an escalation of violence by the Kazakh authorities and the potential for a further strengthening of authoritarian regimes in the region.

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