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NATO Summit in Vilnius: breakthroughs and unfulfilled hopes

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska,Marek Menkiszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor,Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The main topics of the NATO Vilnius Summit held on 11–12 July were deterrence and defense, Ukraine’s future membership of NATO, and deepening relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific. The Alliance is partly returning to the defense planning processes and structures that were in place during the Cold War, but which NATO abandoned in the 1990s. The adoption of three regional defense plans constitutes a structural change in NATO’s approach to collective defense, but will require implementation and funding in the years to come.

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Israel and the Arab states: between conflict and interdependence

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

In late 2020 and early 2021, Israel established official diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (the Abraham Accords), renewed its relations with Morocco, and took steps towards establishing relations with Sudan, in a series of developments that occurred with extensive US involvement. These were Israel’s first normalisation deals since the agreements with Egypt (1979), the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO, 1993) and Jordan (1994). The following factors paved the way for this process: changes in the region related to the aftermath of the Arab Spring (the desire of Arab regimes to consolidate power, also by countering radical Islam that feeds on the struggle against Israel), the growing Iranian threat, US policy, as well as economic and energy transitions.

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Dangerous liaisons. A quick and coordinate withdrawal from Russian gas is proving hard for the EU

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The REPowerEU proposals announced on 18 May confirm the EU’s desire to end its dependence on Russian energy. Nonetheless, it illustrates the problems associated with the process of withdrawing from Russian gas, and above all with the rapid reduction of importing it. The heavy dependence which some EU countries have on Russian gas, the persistence of very high prices and the prospect of crisis and potential shortages in the coming winter make it difficult for the EU to agree internally on a significant, coordinated reduction in supplies this year. As a result, on the one hand, intra-EU discussions about sanctions on Russian gas are very difficult and increasingly rare, while on the other hand, some restraint in the European Commission’s (EC) REPowerEU ambitions regarding the level and pace of reductions in Russian imports is becoming apparent. This weakness of the EU is being exploited by Moscow. Russian counter-sanctions, including the ‘roubles-for-gas’ demand, not only lead to divisions within the EU but also reverse the previous logic of the discussion. The majority of states and companies active on the EU market, instead of thinking about ways to limit imports of Russian gas as quickly as possible, began thinking about ways to guarantee their supplies under new conditions. Therefore, the role of the European Commission in working out common principles for EU gas relations with Russia is diminishing, in favour of the individual actions of member states, which weakens the consistency of EU action. Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be taking control of the process of reducing supplies of Russian gas to the European market. While still maintaining a significant level of exports, Moscow is also maintaining an energy weapon that it could use against the EU in the context of the approaching winter.

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Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Despite the war that has been raging for more than two months, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although estimates are that the areas cultivated will be up to30% smaller than in 2021. A fuel shortage could also be a problem during this year’s harvest. Nor is it clear what the harvest will look like in the occupied territories. Currently, there is no risk of a food deficit, as the country has very significant grain stocks (about 20 million tonnes), exceeding the annual consumption for some species. However, problems may arise in this regard in the Russian-occupied areas as the occupiers have been confiscating grain. The biggest challenge for Kyiv remains the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, through which the vast majority of food (especially grains and vegetable oils) has been exported. Although the infrastructure of the most important of these ports has not suffered, it seems unlikely that they will resume operations in the coming months, even if a ceasefire was to be reached. This is because Moscow will be keen to continue the economic pressure. Ukraine will thus be forced to continue using alternative supply routes via EU countries, particularly Poland and Romania.

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The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Neither the ongoing war in Ukraine nor the rising tensions between Russia and the West and the sanctions imposed by the latter have yet translated into disruptions of Russian gas supplies to the EU. However, they are unequivocally deepening the crisis on the EU gas market, which has been evident for more than six months now. This is evidenced by the record high and volatile commodity prices, as well as the nervousness of all the market players who anticipate disruptions in supplies from Russia and react with panic to suggestions of imposing sanctions aimed at Russian gas exports. The aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant restructuring of the gas policy of the EU as a whole and most of its individual member states. There is a return to thinking in terms of security of supply – which has largely been absent in recent years – and a determination to become independent of gas and other hydrocarbons from Russia. Although at present many EU countries are not prepared to embargo imports of Russian gas, most are reforming their energy policies in such a way as to minimise their dependence on Russian raw materials.

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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

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The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

A year after the end of the second Karabakh war, the situation in the South Caucasus evades simple definition. On the one hand, it seems relatively stable: most of the provisions of the tripartite Statement that gave rise to the end of the fighting are being implemented. Moreover, apart from a defeated and weakened Armenia, all the actors involved in the war have reasons to be satisfied: Azerbaijan has regained control of most of the disputed territories and has proved its strength; Turkey, which supported Baku, has reaffirmed and expanded its influence in the region; Russia has strengthened its position as a regulator of the conflict, as mediator and guarantor of the agreement. On the other hand, however, the region is much more ‘deregulated’ and unstable than it was before the war: the ceasefire on the Karabakh front is based on a document of low formal status, as the real peace process is still frozen; the sense of satisfaction among all the participants (especially Baku and Ankara) is at an unsatisfactorily low level in relation to the ambitions awakened within their societies. Finally, the impression that the entire regional order is being undermined is not waning as the Turkish-Russian rivalry grows and – on the other hand – the role of the West and Iran, which played practically no role during the conflict or the year since its end, is marginalized.

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High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

NATO’s northern flank plays an increasingly important role in the security of the Euro--Atlantic area. Russia’s forces in the Northern Military District pose not only a conventional threat to Norway, but also a nuclear threat to the whole NATO, including the United States and Canada due to submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian Federation has been consistently increasing its military presence in the Arctic and its military activity along Norway’s borders. Deterring Russia in the High North, in increasingly close cooperation with the allies, is thus a key task for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Oslo is gradually lifting Cold War restrictions in the defence sphere and intensifying military cooperation with the US, which is stirring up political controversy in the country. From the US perspective, NATO’s northern flank is becoming more vital for containing Moscow. That is why they signed the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement with Norway, expanding US troop access to military infrastructure there.

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A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

On 24 August 1991, Ukraine proclaimed independence, and a few months later (together with Russia and Belarus) it brought about the dissolution of the USSR. At the time of its foundation, the Ukrainian state was a continuation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; on the one hand, this delayed the de-Communisation of the organisational and legal system, but on the other, it saved the country from having to build up state institutions from scratch. After nearly a quarter of a century, the hour of its greatest trial arrived – revolution and war with Russia. Ukraine passed this test: it did not unilaterally implement the political part of the Minsk agreements which posed a direct threat to it, nor has it fallen into the group of ‘failed states’. The main threat to its future is not so much the ongoing conflict in the Donbas or the weakness of the economy, but rather demographic collapse: during its nearly thirty years of independence, it has lost a fifth of its population.

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№123: Breaking Down Russian and Chinese Disinformation and Propaganda About the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Russia and China use a convergent narrative about the reasons for the war in Ukraine. Both accuse the West, mainly the United States, of provoking Russia, and as a result, the indivisibility of European security has been undermined. Despite the similarities, the Chinese narrative is not entirely the same as Russia’s. China formats its messages about the war in such a way that it attempts to create the perception of it as a still-neutral partner, restraining Russia’s actions. The European Union should pay more attention to Chinese disinformation, which can more effectively reach people and groups not susceptible to Russian narratives.

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Reaction of Tech Companies to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, many global technology companies have taken action against Russia. Restricting the functioning of Russia-based accounts by some social media platforms or impeding the export of technology to Russia by other companies (in addition to sanctions imposed by states) represent a new level of involvement of private actors in international conflicts. Increasing pressure from Western states may contribute to further steps weakening Russian disinformation on social media and Russia’s economic potential due to limited access to high technology.

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Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

More than six months after the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian exports of oil and petroleum products, Russia’s oil sector has adapted to the new reality. Having found new markets, the industry has managed to cut crude production by only 5% while avoiding a reduction in oil processing. Moreover, sales of oil and petroleum products have increased. However, the fact that drastic production cuts have been avoided represents only a partial success. Firstly, the current structure of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products is marked by instability and a heavy dependence on sales to two customers, India and China, which account for up to about 80% of Russia’s total sales. Secondly, following the EU and G7 countries’ introduction of a price cap on Russian oil, some exports have been discounted while the transport of crude has generated additional costs as a result of the sanctions. This allows Russia to sell more oil, but it also reduces its budget revenues. Thirdly, the Russian government has pushed through reforms to the taxation of this sector, but these have failed to increase budget revenues, and have also spurred further capital outflows from Russia and weakened incentives to investment. By choosing not to slash crude production, the government has seemingly given priority to keeping its level stable at the expense of budget revenues. Therefore, the reduction of these revenues shows that the West has achieved the objectives of its sanctions, while also avoiding disruptions to supplies on global oil markets. However this situation may change in the second half of 2023, when an anticipated global oil deficit and a subsequent increase in the price of oil are set to boost Russian revenues from sales of crude and fuels.

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The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Less than a decade ago, both Russian and Indian analysts would have described the relations between Moscow and New Delhi as problem-free from a political perspective. No other power was as convenient a partner for Russia as India. The first cracks in the relationship between the two countries began to emerge in the mid-2010s as a result of China’s growing power (India is in conflict with China) and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. Other factors included the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation and the ongoing rapprochement between India and the US. At first glance, it may seem that the full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has served to further strengthen the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the foundations of the Russian-Indian ‘specially privileged strategic partnership’ have been eroding, due to several factors, and this erosion is likely to continue.

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Balking the Blunders in the Balkans: The Western Strategy

Author(s): Jan Havránek,Filip Tesař / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the West was obliged to deal with several crises in the Balkans and pledged to a complete reconstruction of the post-war situation in the region. During this demanding process, the Western countries however maximised their traditional stereotyped attitudes towards the Balkan countries. Both the European Union and the United States have typecast the Balkan states according to the extent of the internal problems of these states, and according to their own ability to deal with such issues. Despite the good intentions behind the acting of the West, this process resulted in a mixture of shambolic strategies that have made the Western presence in the region very complicated. The West has been gradually loosing its military and managing respect, given its reluctance to pursue the proclaimed objectives. Such disinclination to act has played into the hands of the local bosses, who very soon found out how the system can be abused in order to satisfy both their electorate and the Western custodians. Nowadays, it is clear that such a hesitant attitude of the West towards the Balkans is no longer sustainable. A significant change in the Western strategy towards the Balkan countries is required, should the integration of the Balkans into the Western structures (i.e. NATO, EU) be successful.

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The importance of verification and transparency in the nuclear arms-control, nonproliferation and disarmament process

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Since the Cold War period the importance of the importance of verifying the treaty obligations, which is one of the main parts of the strengthening of the common trust, has been continuing until the present. At the same time, in the areas of arms-control and international security, the role of nuclear transparency, with the verification of provided data and treaty obligations as its integral part, has been increasing. The necessity of maintaining predictability, mainly between both of the nuclear superpowers (the US and the RF), which possess about 90% of all nuclear weapons in the world, is connected with the need to maintain the arms-control process and an effective verification procedure in cases of other negotiated treaty instruments being concluded. Nuclear disarmament verification procedures should above all take into consideration political and technical challenges connected with the current decreasing numbers of nuclear weapons while taking into account the protection of sensitive data as well. At all relevant security forums, especially at the 10th NPT Review Conference in 2020, the Czech Republic should support the EU initiatives and all other initiatives in favour of maintaining the US-Russia arms-control architecture, especially the proposed extension of the New START Treaty’s validity and verification mechanism in 2021. The possible participation of Czech experts in various verification initiatives would be highly welcomed as well.

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Time to exist and resist: the European Union and Russian political war

Author(s): Mark Galeotti / Language(s): English

Russia is waging a political war campaign of active measures intended to divide, distract, and dismay European states, not as a prelude to any direct military aggression but as a substitute. The institutions of the European Union have made very patchy and often reluctant responses to this campaign, in part as a result of a lack of consensus among member states, in part because the necessary measures – which often focus on cohesion, legitimacy, and more effective counter-intelligence activity – are controversial, complex, long-term and expensive. A primary issue, though, is the dramatically different strategic cultures and operational codes of the EU and Russia. Moscow subscribes to an essentially confrontation, zero-sum perspective that at best interprets the EU’s more inclusive approach as naive, at worse as a pose, concealing malign intent. The EU and member states need to appreciate and understand the nature, scale and objectives of Russia’s political war, and specifically the lack of any set doctrine or “playbook.” This will require deeper investment in expertise within the institutions of the Commission, as well as broadening European understandings of “security.” Addressing issues of corruption, institutional legitimacy, social cohesion and governance is a crucial security concern. Countries at most risk from the ‘legitimacy gap’ are more vulnerable to Russian interference and subversion. The EU must appreciate that as an alliance, weaknesses in the counter-intelligence capacities of one state is a vulnerability for all. There needs to be greater effort on this, and a consensus on the minimum level of acceptable spending on this. The immediate challenge is to act more decisively and collectively to reduce the effectiveness of the instruments used by Moscow in its political war, especially those not simply operating on direct instructions but “adhocrats” seeking to please Moscow. This requires more detailed intelligence gathering, analysis and sharing, which could fall within the remit of INTCEN.

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Stability, sustainability and success in the Sahel: the next steps for the Czech engagement

Author(s): Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň,Jan Daniel,Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

As a follow-up up to the military involvement of the Czech Republic in the region since 2013 and the consequent rural development projects there, the whole-of-government strategy towards the Sahel (G5) is an expression of responsibility and responsiveness to the related security challenges for the European Union and its African partners. By subscribing to the security-development nexus, Czechia recently reinforced its diplomatic presence in the Sahel and spread its activities to the areas of health, migration and civil society. To make its contribution to the Coalition for the Sahel sustainable and complementary to the EU’s efforts, Czechia should update its national strategy to build the Sahel’s forward resilience, expand the governance and development pillars and mainstream human rights and gender. It should also improve the financial planning and mainstream the Sahel in the current budget lines to mobilise domestic expertise, gain public support for the Strategy’s long-term implementation and give credence to the Sahel as a priority during the upcoming Czech presidency of the EU in 2022.

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The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

Author(s): Artur KOLDOMASOV,Taras Prodaniuk / Language(s): English

Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is also one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU into the role of the main guardian of the countryʼs post-war reconstruction. This paper recommendsthat the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organize a comprehensive assistance in this regard and identifies its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in the post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritizing one over the other.

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Czech and Norwegian perspectives on new security threats concerning Russian war on Ukraine. Energy security

Author(s): Jan Mazač,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Lukáš Tichý,Martin Laryš,Zbyněk Dubský / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted the world’s energy system. The most urgent need was to phase out the EU’s dependence on Russian energy imports and find a quick replacement. In this joint paper, we approach the issue from two different perspectives of the Czech Republic and Norway, looking for intersections and identifying opportunities to strengthen cooperation and facilitate the accelerated energy transition and diversification. We conclude that both countries have taken immediate action in addressing the most pressing energy-related risks. The potential for closer cooperation is obvious. Both countries should maximise the level of collaboration by taking advantage of existing institutional frameworks (NATO and EU/EEA). In the energy dimension, the key to cooperation in the short term is gas (investment in production in Norway, development of export pipelines or protecting critical sub-sea infrastructure). In the longer term, both countries should jointly cooperate on developing of hydrogen market, including production and transportation.

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Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2017)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

Držíte v rukou závěrečnou studii vznikající v rámci projektu TA ČR Scénáře mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí. Uzavírá se jí tříletý cyklus kolektivních spekulací týmu soustředěného v Ústavu mezinárodních vztahů o možnostech vývoje tohoto prostředí. Projekce, které vznikly jako výstupy těchto spekulací, nemají ambici být přesnými předpověďmi. Vysoká komplexita mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí jako systému, kde dochází k dynamické interakci množství předem daných skutečností, hybných sil a kritických neznámých, možnost takové předpovědi téměř vylučuje. Naše scénáře sledují jiný cíl: kombinací prediktivního (jaká budoucnost bude) a explorativního (jaká budoucnost může být) přístupu a záměrnou vícečetností podobně pravděpodobných projekcí vývoje v každém sektoru bezpečnostního prostředí být nástroji tvořivého promýšlení možných budoucností, rozšiřování horizontu úvah o tom, jak přispět k naplňování jejich z hlediska české zahraniční politiky nejvýhodnějších variant a zkoušení zažitých předpokladů o tom, co bezpečnostním prostředím, ve kterém se Česká republika nachází, hýbe.

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