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Međunarodna pomoć i demokratizacija medija na zapadnom Balkanu: naučene lekcije

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): Bosnian

Ovaj policy memo sumira ključne nalaze komparativnog istraživačkog projekta koji je ispitivao vezu između međunarodne pomoći medijima i demokratske transformacije medija u pet zemalja zapadnog Balkana: Albaniji, Bosni i Hercegovini, Kosovu, Makedoniji i Srbiji. Svrha je projekta doprinos boljem razumijevanju faktora koji mogu utjecati na rezultate programa međunarodne pomoći i mehanizama kondicionalnosti usmjerenih na razvoj održivih i funkcionalnih medijskih institucija u zemljama koje prolaze kroz proces demokratizacije. Osim toga, nalazi pružaju uvid u implikacije transponiranja uvoznih institucionalnih modela u medijske sisteme društava u tranziciji na zapadnom Balkanu, te kao takvi mogu u budućnosti poslužiti kao potka sličnih programa pomoći.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.

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Letter by Four Defence Ministers about the Future of European Defence

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

On 30 May, the defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain issued a joint letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and their counterparts in the EU Member States. The letter proposes to deepen the recent reforms of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

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Wyrok Sądu UE w sprawie gazociągu OPAL

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Wyrok Sądu UE z 10 września br. przywraca sytuację prawną gazociągu OPAL - lądowej odnogi Nord Stream - do stanu z 2009 r. Oznacza to konieczność ograniczenia przez Gazprom wykorzystania OPAL o ponad 12 mld m3 gazu rocznie. Aby utrzymać poziom eksportu do UE, koncern będzie musiał zwiększyć przesył przez Ukrainę, mimo że jej ominięcie jako kraju tranzytowego jest od lat strategicznym celem Rosji. Chociaż wyrok opiera się na traktatowej zasadzie solidarności energetycznej, Rosjanie będą przekonywać, że ma charakter polityczny, m.in. dlatego, że został wydany na krótko przed zimowym sezonem grzewczym i wygaśnięciem z końcem 2019 r. kontraktu na przesył gazu przez Ukrainę.

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The Normandy Format Summit - No Real Progress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) summit, held in Paris on 9 December for the first time since 2016, did not bring any breakthrough in the negotiations regarding settling the situation in Donbas. The Russian authorities still lack the political will necessary to end the conflict.

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Wizyta Joe Bidena w Polsce

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 20-22 lutego br., po powrocie z Kijowa, prezydent USA Joe Biden przebywał w Polsce. Wizyta miała na celu podkreślenie roli Polski i państw regionu w zakresie pomocy udzielanej Ukrainie. Kolejny raz zaznaczyła też jedność sojuszu państw demokratycznych trwającą przez rok rosyjskiej agresji oraz ich gotowość do dalszego wsparcia militarnego zwycięstwa Ukrainy.

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From Vicious to Virtuous: Transforming the Ukraine Crisis - The EU can create a lasting peace by sticking to its (lack of) guns

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

Given the rising death toll in Eastern Ukraine, reports of a ceasefire deal in Minsk are a very welcome development. However, rather than merely halting the war, the EU, Ukraine and Russia need to create a lasting peace. Calls for the West to arm Ukraine – a misguided attempt to level the killing field – has overshadowed previous proposals from EU leaders to create a free trade area with Russia in the long-term. However, this is the approach that offers the greatest hope for a long-term solution that can transform the conflict, EU-Russia relations and even Russia itself. It would benefit all concerned – apart from the Putin regime – but it faces many obstacles, not least within the EU itself. The EU needs to assuage the concerns that some of its member states have about engaging with Russia and with the Putin regime. If this can be done, the EU can also begin to establish a foreign policy that adheres to its values and perhaps even begin to address its own internal crisis of confidence.

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2023 Kosovo: Debacle of International Community in Kosovo

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Crime in Kosovo has its roots in the period of Kosovo’s government-in-exile. The epicenter of crime includes the former commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK-OVK) and (para)intelligence services (ShIK), who acted in cooperation with political structures. Although the ShIK was officially dissolved in 2008 for the purposes of establishment of the official Kosovo Intelligence Agency, it still operates unofficially. There are strong connections between the current official and unofficial opposition political leaders and the enormous amounts of money, which has been collected through various funds. The Vendlindja thrret (Homeland Calling) fund was used to collect money in Europe and is controlled by the leaders of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). The Kosovo People’s Movement Levizja Popullore e Kosoves was established in 1997-98 and it collected money from the diaspora. In 1999 the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) was established from it. In 1991, the 3% Fund was created under the control of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). Dubious activities are affiliated with the closest family members of former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi (PDK). In fact, a member of his family had a special role in the Kosovo Insurance Bureau (BKS) and controlled the overall financial system through the Central Bank of Kosovo (BQK). Kurti’s government abolished the popularly called “Thaci’s tax.”

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2023 Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria: Between Brussels (Berlin) and Moscow

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In the Republic of Bulgaria early parliamentary elections will be held on 2 April 2023. At the elections 240 representatives/deputies of the Bulgarian National Assembly will be elected according to the proportional closed-list system. There is a total of 31 electoral constituencies from which, depending on the size of the constituency from 4 to 16 representatives/deputies will be elected. The election threshold is 4%. These are the fifth elections in the past two years, as it was not possible to establish a government on the basis of the results of the previous elections.

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Putin’s War, world meetings, etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The last period has been busy with world meetings none of which have or only peripherally involved Russia because of their malign intent on Ukraine. A distinct change from reporting about the Ukrainian conflict is the football World Cup, the 4- yearly event now being hosted by Qatar, an occasion which was previously hosted by Russia in 2018, and where Putin was frequently visible. The fact that he had annexed Crimea 4 years before had been ‘forgotten’ about and he took all the praise for a successful event. However, Russia has not qualified for the current Middle East held event. They will be sorely missed! The Qatari event is taking a significant amount of airtime, not just about football, but that is another story.

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Europe of the West: Imperialism of Imagination, Geopolitics of Peter Pan

Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

Economic downturn; recession of plans and initiatives; systematically ignored calls for a fiscal and monetary justice for all; €-crisis; Brexit and irredentism in the UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Denmark and Italy; lasting instability in the Euro-Med theatre (debt crisis of the Europe’s south – countries scrutinized and ridiculed under the nickname PIGS, coupled with the failed states all over the MENA); terrorism; historic low with Moscow culminating in the unprecedented opened armed conflict of West with Russia on the territory of yet another Slavic useful idiot, ill-fated Ukraine, all this combined with a confrontational but in fact frightened and disoriented Washington administration; influx of predominantly Muslim refugees from Levant in numbers and configurations unprecedented since the WWII exoduses (with an institutionalized racism in the Western migration policy while giving to fleeing Ukrainians diametrically different treatment); consequential growth of far-right parties who – by peddling reductive messages and comparisons – are exploiting fears of otherness, that are now amplified with already urging health labour and social justice concerns; generational unemployment and sociocultural anxieties, in ricochet of sanctions; long-ago ‘prophesised’ than doctored health, post-C-19 and energy ‘crises’, oil anti-diplomacy, as well as the Sino-US trade wars, while rifting in dilemma to either letting Bolivarism or supporting Monroeism…

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2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Christian Schmidt vs. High Representative (OHR)?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

After the Russian invasion on Ukraine, which begun on 24 February 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Western Balkans region as a whole, once again became a focus of international attention. There is almost no relevant report or discussions at which Bosnia and Herzegovina is not identified as a location of possible conflict.After the Russian invasion on Ukraine, which begun on 24 February 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Western Balkans region as a whole, once again became a focus of international attention. There is almost no relevant report or discussions at which Bosnia and Herzegovina is not identified as a location of possible conflict. For more than a decade the US administration has left Bosnia and Herzegovina in the care of the European Union (EU), which has more than evidently missed the historic opportunity to make important steps forward towards a prosperous BiH. Not just that such steps have not been made but the EU has created in BiH a situation identical to that in Ukraine in the eve of the Russian invasion. The sequence of moves by EU officials towards BiH indicates a high risk of corruption, just as in the case of the possible imposition of the BiH Election Law.

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2022 North Macedonia: Country’s Future is Laid Out

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

On 8 September 2022, North Macedonia marked the 31st anniversary of declaration of independence. Year 2017 was a milestone in the modern Macedonian history. The regime of Nikola Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE), who remained in power from 2006 to 2017, collapsed. A new government headed by Prime Minister Zoran Zaev (SDSM) was established. With the signing of the Prespa Agreement Zoran Zaev and Alexis Tsipras defeated the doctrine pursued by Slobodan Milošević and Constantine Mitsotakis, with the assistance of some Macedonian political parties, which did not envisage existence of Macedonia as a state and Macedonians as a people. The full-fledged membership in NATO fulfilled century long dream of Macedonians and other citizens to have their own state whose territorial integrity and sovereignty would be guaranteed by the biggest and strongest politico-military alliance in the world- NATO. This provided for defeat of hegemonic projects that involved or included aspirations with respect to North Macedonia.

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Putin’s war – cont’d

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

We in Britain are just getting over a lengthy mourning period for Queen Elizabeth II, and saying goodbye to the longest reigning monarch in British history. Perhaps Vladimir Putin waited, as a mark of respect, before he addressed the Russian people to give them the next phase of his plans for his ‘special military operation’. It was hard to witness his drive in the streets of London in an open-topped limousine smiling, beside the Queen, some twenty years ago! Relationships with Russia have certainly soured since then.

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Ukraine 2022: Russia's nuclear sabre-rattling

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

With the Russian-Ukrainian war entering its eighth month and a stalemate along the front lines, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered on September 21, 2022, the first military mobilization in the country since World War II, warning the West that if it continued what he called its “nuclear blackmail” Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our people - this is not a bluff,” Putin said in in his speech, which was broadcast on Russian television.

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Putin’s War – 5; etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine, Putin’s war, is now over 100 days old and reaching a point of stalemate. One day the Russians have made small gains in the Donbas, the eastern border lands of Ukraine, and in the next day or so we hear that they have been stopped and pushed back. In the meantime, the promised more powerful armaments, with a bigger range, from Britain, the US and from some European countries, are coming on stream, albeit late and slowly, and these may, should push the Russians back. One hopes so that it is more than just talk. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister is not at all pleased at this development of the west’s support for what maybe in a short time a member of the EU, and warns of an escalation of activities. Perhaps that is a risk Ukraine has to take in order to take back the lands lost.

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ANALIZA NACIONALNIH KAPACITETA ZA DOPRINOS MEĐUNARODNIM CIVILNIM MISIJAMA

Author(s): Dejan Milenković,Dušan Ignjatović,Igor Novaković / Language(s): Serbian

The main goal of this in depth research analysis is to contribute to the creation of legislative framework in order for Serbia to send its civilian experts in peace support operations. This document offers a comparative legal analyses of the legal frameworks for sending civilians in peace support operations of six European countries: Estonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Germany. It also provides a short overview and clarification of what the civilian missions are and how they have evolved over time.

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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures in 2020

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Natan Albahari,Jovana Bogosavljević,Tamara Kitić / Language(s): English

This is the seventh annual report that offers a brief overview of the EU’s foreign policy declarations during 2020 and tabulation of Serbia’s compliance with each of them. The analysis gives an explanation of such foreign policy of Serbia within Chapter 31, as well as the comparative overview of other state’s alignment during 2020.

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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures: Semi-annual review for 2023

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Tanja Plavšić / Language(s): English

An Analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the EU’s foreign policy declarations and measures for period from 1st January to 30th June 2023. The Analysis provides an explanation of Serbia’s foreign policy within Chapter 31, as well as the comparative overview of other state’s alignment during this period.

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