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Too green, too fast, too dear. The AfD is gaining popularity in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The popularity of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) is growing, as confirmed by its second place in the latest opinion polls, putting it on a par with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SDP, and that is raising great concern in Germany. The factors which have contributed to the AfD’s success include the public dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and the overlapping consequences of the Ukraine war and the inflation, climate and migration crises. The SPD-Green-FDP government coalition has presented different, often inconsistent approaches to these challenges. This has been coupled with Scholz’s deliberate passiveness as he shuns disputes inside the coalition in an attempt to improve his popularity ratings. This strategy has been successful up to a certain point, but is currently failing, and as a result the Chancellor is being blamed for the situation in the coalition. The AfD is benefitting from this, while also capitalizing on the fears most Germans share about the pace of the changes being implemented as part of the government’s climate policy. The party is also an advocate for voters who oppose the excessive influx of migrants to Germany and further support for Ukraine. Residents of the eastern federal states are particularly sensitive to these issues, where the AfD leads the polls with over 30%, and is viewed as a ‘catch-all’ or mass party, and not merely a fringe movement. This is particularly important given the upcoming elections to the parliaments of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia scheduled for autumn 2024, which will be the final electoral test before the Bundestag elections in 2025.

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Russia is weaponising food

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The Kremlin has made further attempts in recent months to use the food market to intensify pressure on the West, primarily in order to ease the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation. For example, Moscow is again threatening to pull out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative which enables Ukrainian food to be exported through Odesa’s ports. The escalation of the Kremlin’s demands is based on false accusations that the Western coalition is blocking Russian exports of agricultural products and mineral fertilizers. Over the past few months, Russian exports of these goods have grown dynamically and the export volume has returned to the pre-invasion level; in the case of grain it is now definitely higher. Last year, despite the decline in the volume of supplies, their value increased significantly and accounted for 10% of Russia’s export revenues. This not only ensured the inflow of currency to Russia but, given that selected members of the Putin elite are among the direct beneficiaries of these exports, it enabled them to further build their fortunes. The Kremlin’s threats should therefore be seen on the one hand as a test of the West’s unity and determination to continue its sanctions policy towards Russia, and on the other as an attempt to maximize public revenues from the export of agricultural products and mineral fertilizers.

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Taliban Tightening Grip on Afghanistan One Year after Taking Power

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Since the seizure of Kabul on 15 August 2021, the Taliban have been consolidating power by recreating the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan of the 1990s. The Taliban government’s limiting of human rights, especially of women, and constant ties to terrorist organisations reduce the chances of international recognition. Afghanistan has not yet become a centre of global terrorism or a source of mass migration, but the suspension of economic support has deepened the humanitarian crisis. Western partners, including the EU and the U.S., should pursue humanitarian aid and consider unfreezing Afghan currency reserves.

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A dangerous resemblance. Moves to revise Germany’s China policy

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revived the ongoing discussion in Germany regarding the need to revise its policy towards China. Until recently, the course Berlin adopted towards Beijing and Moscow was not only convergent in many aspects, but also enjoyed a consensus among the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, who co-formed three government coalitions from 2005–2021. This resulted in the emergence of a dependence that was unfavourable for Germany. With Russia this involved the import of fuels and with China it involved supplies of components and also major investments carried out by German companies in China. Both states were viewed as priority partners, frequently at the cost of relations with other countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific, respectively. Berlin’s approach to Beijing and Moscow sparked disputes with its closest allies as well as dilemmas regarding Germany’s economic and security interests. In addition, cooperation with authoritarian regimes that violate human rights was a blot on Germany’s image in the context of its foreign policy.

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China after the 20th CCP Congress: a new stage in Xi Jinping’s revolution

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

The 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ended with the complete triumph of Xi Jinping and marks the culmination of a process of radical overhaul of the political system created in the 1980s and 1990s. It marks not only the end of collective leadership in the party, but also a redefinition of the relationship between the party and the state and the relationship between the CCP and society. The transformation of the CCP carried out by Xi Jinping over the past decade provides him with the tools to overcome institutional inertia and the resistance of middle and lower-level party-state cadres – factors that are among the elements holding back the changes in the socio-economic development model of the People’s Republic of China(PRC) that were first announced 15 years ago. Therefore, radical and rapid decisions in this sphere are to be expected in the coming years. They will bring further the Marxist-nationalist ideologisation of the PRC, the introduction of a mechanism of mass redistribution and an increase in the role of the party and the state in all aspects of the social and private life of the population. This, in turn, heralds an increase in totalitarian tendencies.

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Bromance. Turkey’s activity in the Western Balkans

Author(s): Marta Szpala,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

At the beginning of September 2022, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid a visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Serbia and Croatia. The trip was the culmination of Turkish diplomatic activity towards the region in recent months. Earlier, in June 2022, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu visited Serbia, Croatia, BiH and Kosovo, in August 2022 he attempted to act as a mediator during the escalation of the Serbian-Kosovan conflict, and on 2 September2022 he attended the summit of the Serbian-led Open Balkan initiative held in Belgrade. These activities are consistent with Ankara’s policy that involves fostering its image as both an influential actor, and at the same time a neutral mediator in the Western Balkans – one that is able to contribute to a resolution of bilateral disputes and to the region’s stabilization. Turkey has pursued this policy for more than a decade. In addition, it has been consistently expanding economic influence in the Balkans, accompanied by the development of its retinue of soft power instruments based on shared religious and historical background. However, Turkey’s cooperation with the region’s states is also riddled with challenges. These include Ankara’s close collaboration with Moscow, which raises concern in some Balkan capitals; increasing tension in its relations with the EU and the US; as well as multi-faceted intra-regional disputes.

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A tactical pause in relations with the West: China plays on hopes for peace

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In November 2022, China’s leader Xi Jinping embarked on a wide-ranging diplomatic campaign to prevent an uncontrolled breakdown of relations with the West, which should be considered a short-term success, at least in terms of reopening channels of communication with Western countries. This move has succeeded owing to Beijing’s instrumental use of the West’s hopes that it can secure China’s opposition to Russia’s possible use of weapons of mass destruction, and belief that China might be willing to mediate peace in Ukraine. The PRC’s actions have also met the expectations of its Western partners as they look for ways to stabilise relations with Beijing in the face of a looming global economic crisis. At present, we can say that the escalation has been halted, although the negative trend in China’s relations with the West –in particular with the United States – has not been reversed. Faced with economic and social challenges at home, the PRC will make further efforts to avoid economic confrontation with the West in the immediate future, by using more or less veiled suggestions of possible mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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The calm before the storm: the state and prospects of Russia’s oil sector

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have serious consequences for the health of the Russian oil sector, which is one of the most important branches of the country’s economy. Although its production and export performance, and consequently its budget revenues, remained high in2022, the situation began to worsen in December, and the negative trend is likely to continue in the coming months. The main reason for this state of affairs is the sanctions introduced by Western countries, in particular the European Union’s embargo on imports of Russian oil and petroleum products. Russia’s government and companies have taken adaptive measures, such as reconfiguring the directions of oil exports; however, economic, infrastructural and political constraints may make it much more difficult to follow through with the plan for sustainable market diversification. Thus, the EU embargo may lead to a significant reduction in oil production in Russia over the coming years, which will worsen the country’s financial and economic health. The ultimate effect of the restrictions will depend on the determination of Western countries and the pace at which they implement sanctions, as well as the attitudes of Moscow’s other trading partners.

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Germany: how the gas sector changed in the crisis year of 2022

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the mounting energy and gas crisis in Europe,2022 saw a spell of permanent crisis management in the German energy sector, in particular gas. The structure of Germany’s imports has changed significantly: shipments from Russia, its former principal supplier, have ceased; and Germany has had to launch extremely costly emergency measures to find alternative suppliers on the global market. The war has pushed Berlin to take numerous steps to diversify its supplies, in particular to develop its LNG import infrastructure at a rapid and unprecedented pace. A significant reduction in gas consumption, mild weather and LNG supplies have all enabled Germany to fill its gas storage facilities and avoid the risk of gas shortages this winter. Major changes have also occurred in the management and ownership structure of the German gas sector: Berlin has nationalised the SEFE (Gazprom Germania) and Uniper companies, which has enabled the German state to seize control of the country’s key gas infrastructure and its strategically important gas importers. All these factors have contributed to a major weakening of Germany’s energy ties with Russia.

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Russia: export restrictions and mobilisation – more blows to the economy

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

In Q3 2022, the economy of the Russian Federation increasingly suffered negative consequences from the sanctions imposed on Russian exports. A ban on imports of a substantial part of Russian steel and iron into the EU came into force in mid-June, followed by a ban on imports such as cement and wood on 10 July, and a ban on coal imports on 10 August. The mood among business and the public soured further with the military mobilisation announced on 21 September, which also had a negative impact on the domestic outlook. As a result, the Russian budget is coming under increasing strain.

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Orbán’s fifth government: full power overshadowed by crises

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

Upon attaining a fourth consecutive election victory, Viktor Orbán’s new government is sticking to its usual methods of operation: the concentration of power, control of the narrative, and ‘unorthodox’ economic policies, such as additional taxation on large profits. The cabinet functions in comfortable intra-political conditions, holding full power and facing a defeated and divided opposition. However, it faces its biggest challenges in years with the deteriorating economic situation and the unstable international environment. The government has no clear reform aspirations and is rather promising to manage the crisis permanently, while looking after its business base and further tightening its grip on media coverage. In view of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it will be increasingly difficult for Budapest to benefit from balancing between East and West. In this area, it is likely to attempt a rapprochement with the Western states that are more accommodating towards Moscow, while at the same time looking for ways to maintain the relations with the US and its partners in Central Europe, albeit these are the frostiest they have been in decades. Orbán is trying to postpone a reorientation in foreign policy until the result of the Russian-Ukrainian war is known. Should the West return to dialogue with Russia, he is counting on the benefits of a developed cooperation with the Kremlin, especially in the energy sector and, should Russia enter into a situation of protracted isolation, Orbán will seek to ensure that any reduction in this cooperation will see Hungary amply compensated by its Western partners.

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Turkish dilemmas in the shadow of the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine forcefully evoked the question of Turkey’s international position and political strategy in its neighbourhood, but also in its relations with the West and Russia. In the first months of the aggression, Turkey reaffirmed its alignment with the West and its fear of Russian power and ambitions. The war also provided an opportunity for another attempt, not only to strengthen but also to redefine Turkish-Western relations – the lifting of sanctions imposed on Ankara and a stronger consideration of its security interests. Both the relative weakness of Russia, as revealed in the first period of the war, and the absence of the desired breakthrough in relations with the West have reinforced traditional and contentious tendencies in Turkish politics. The first is the desire to exploit Moscow’s weakness to deepen cooperation with it on better terms, which is reflected in the development of trade, including cooperation on the grain supply problems caused by the war. The second is aggressively manifesting Turkey’s interests in NATO. Included in this attitude is Ankara’s demand that some Alliance countries drop sanctions on the import of selected armaments by Turkey and adopt its counter-terrorism perspective, including on Kurdish groups affiliated to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and radical opposition organisations (including the Gülen Movement/FETO) that enjoy protection or support in the West. A demonstration of this policy was and still remains – despite the formal launch of the accession process by Sweden and Finland at the Madrid summit –Turkey’s continuing threat to block the enlargement of the Alliance by its national parliament.

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Separatism and gas: Russian attempts to destabilise Moldova

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

As the price crisis in Moldova has worsened in recent months, Moscow has taken steps destabilize the country. These are particularly evident in the autonomous Gagauzia, which has traditionally orientated itself towards Russia and where anti-government and pro-Russian economic protests regularly occur. The sense of insecurity is reinforced by frequent false bomb warnings (more than 50 in July alone), triggered mainly in Chisinau by individuals from Russia and Belarus territories. The uneasy situation persists in Moscow-controlled breakaway Transnistria, which has accused Moldova and Ukraine of complicity in carrying out a series of “attacks” on civilian and military facilities. There is no doubt that by fuelling Moldova’s economic crisis with high energy prices and supporting pro-Russian forces, the Kremlin is counting on the outbreak of mass protests as early as autumn and winter and also that the opposition Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BECS) will seize power in the country. The public’s deteriorating financial condition and continuing unrest are negatively affecting the popularity of the ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). According to a June 2022 poll, it can count on only 22.6% of the vote, despite winning more than 52% in the snap parliamentary election just one year ago.

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Total defence. Six months of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

After six months of war, Ukraine can celebrate success – due to the mobilisation of its entire population to fight, and to unceasing reconnaissance and logistics support from the West, it continues to successfully defend itself. Russia, in turn, has failed to attain its initial objectives, including the “denazification” and “demilitarisation” of Ukraine and the intention to seize control of the country. The armed confrontation has already lasted far longer than the Kremlin had anticipated, which suggests that the first six months of war can be viewed from Russia’s perspective as a failure. Since the end of March 2022, when Russia decided to withdraw its troops from northern Ukraine and from portions of Mykolaiv Oblast, and when a frontline was formed in the south and in the east, Russian aggression has shifted from a phase of manoeuvre warfare to that of trench warfare. Since then, the strategic situation has not changed significantly and remains largely static. However, Russia continues to possess the initiative and any changes happening at the front are the consequences of its actions. The aggressor’s troops have maintained a relatively stable land bridge with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army back from its positions in the Donbas, which continues to be the main area of fighting. For the time being, the counter-offensive announced by Kyiv continues to form part of an information strategy aimed at boosting the defenders’ morale. Ukraine continues to lack sufficient manpower and adequate means, i.e. mainly heavy weaponry of an offensive nature, to attempt to recapture the occupied territories.

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An abundance of gas ports. The emergency diversification of gas supplies in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The LNG terminal projects planned so far in Germany could not be implemented due to unfavourable regulatory and market conditions. The ability to opt for cheaper Russian gas, imported via pipelines, was one of the main obstacles since the German government saw no need to invest in securing supplies, mistakenly believing that it shared common interests with Russia as part of the two countries’ energy alliance. The aggression against Ukraine has revealed these beliefs to be myths and has become a catalyst for a profound revision of the approach to cooperation with Russia. Aware of the risk of cutting off gas supplies and the ensuing serious economic consequences, Germany has intensified its efforts and is taking emergency measures to develop LNG import infrastructure. In the short term, Germany will have four floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) which, combined with other measures to diversify supplies, will enable Germany to become independent of gas imports from Russia in 2024. This, however, does not automatically mean that Germany will decide to totally and permanently discontinue the imports of Russian gas.

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Having your cake and eating it. Georgia, the war in Ukraine and integration with the West

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Georgia’s reaction to the war in Ukraine can be called ambivalent. Although Tbilisi condemned the aggression, it has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions. Indeed, according to Kyiv, Georgia has been violating them and allowing Russia to circumvent them, although so far there is no hard evidence of this. Georgia’s stance of ‘benevolent neutrality’ towards the aggressor maybe partly explained by the fear of a Russian threat; objectively, however, this stance means de facto support for Moscow. In the context of the cooling of relations between Georgia and the West (i.e. the EU & US) observed over the last few years, this raises the question of whether Tbilisi is not carrying out a creeping reorientation of its foreign policy from pro-Western to pro-Russian – something which the Georgian opposition has accused the government of doing. It seems that although at the moment there is no question of a deliberate geopolitical shift, the drift towards Moscow is setting a new tone, and it is becoming increasingly inconvenient for Washington and Brussels to support Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

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The West’s rearguard: Israel’s stance on the war

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine is taking place far from Israel’s borders and does not affect it directly. However, it poses a serious political problem for the government in Jerusalem, for at least two reasons. First of all, the war is distracting the attention of the world (and above all American) public opinion from the Iranian threat, which for Israel is the most important issue (and at the same time, it has not yet been decided whether a new nuclear agreement with Iran will be concluded). Secondly, the confrontation between Moscow and the West is compelling Israel to maneuver between these two forces. It views both of them as necessary to guarantee its national interests. As a result, since 24 February, the country has been balancing between the expectations of its most important ally, the United States, and the interests of Russia, whose favour determines the security of Israel’s northern flank. In practice, it has been implementing the minimum demanded by Western policy (condemnation of the aggression, humanitarian aid, etc.), but it has also carefully avoided any actions that could antagonise Moscow. Relations with Ukraine are good and multifaceted. However, considering the circumstances, they have been given a lower priority and, despite the Israeli public’s strong sympathy for the country under attack, they do not have a key impact on the state’s policy.

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German arms deliveries to Ukraine – the SPD’s controversial course

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

For some time now, Germany has been vigorously discussing military aid deliveries to Ukraine. The German government, which made a landmark decision in the first days of the invasion to start supplying Kyiv with weapons, became more cautious about extending military support in the following weeks of the war. Domestic pressure from the coalition parties and public opinion, as well as from Ukraine and NATO countries, have forced Chancellor Olaf Scholz to reluctantly extend its scope. German support still remains far behind that of the main NATO countries, however. The Social Democrats, who are responsible for the course of government policy, justify their restrained approach with a number of reasons. Nevertheless, it seems that behind this stance lies a conviction that Ukraine cannot fully win this war and Russia cannot completely lose it and risk being pushed to a political and economic collapse. According to the SPD’s prevailing opinion, this would lead to some potentially risky scenarios – escalation of the conflict by the use of weapons of mass destruction or the implosion of the Russian state, with unforeseeable consequences for Europe. According to the Social Democrats, the war will have to end sooner or later with peace talks, and limiting German military support for Ukraine should enable Berlin to return to its traditional role as an intermediary between Moscow and Kyiv. However, such a strategy on the part of the Chancellery is leading to a loss of Germany’s credibility in the EU and NATO, and in Ukraine also.

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China’s challenges in the Indo-Pacific in the shadow of Russian aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

The PRC has been in a difficult international position since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war and the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Moscow are accelerating polarisation in the world. The US global alliance system has worked effectively and there has been not only a consolidation of NATO, but also the establishment of cooperation between US pacific allies – such as Japan and Australia – and European partners. They have also delivered aid to Ukraine, which must raise concerns in Beijing that they could rely on NATO members for support in the event of an Indo-Pacific conflict. Chinese propaganda since the beginning of the war has reproduced the Russian narrative that the Alliance and Washington are responsible. The PRC is not abandoning its long-range strategic goals in the region, but the course of the aggression against Ukraine and the Western response require it to accept new realities. Above all, Beijing must recognise that the incorporation of Taiwan, which remains its priority, will not happen in the near term by means of a local ‘special operation’, but would escalate into a major international conflict for which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will not be prepared in the near future. Recognition of this fact has already resulted in a relative reduction in the current number and intensity of incidents across the Taiwan Strait for the time being.

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Slovakia: strategic dilemmas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

The centre-right government in Bratislava decided to discontinue its long-standing policy of avoiding antagonizing Russia. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia has found itself in the vanguard of the countries most involved in providing military and humanitarian aid to Kyiv. Bratislava has expelled 35 Russian diplomats, has closed several pro-Russian websites and intensified the activity of the secret services targeting collaborators of Russian intelligence. Nevertheless, these unprecedented attempts to rid the country of Russian influence are encountering increasing resistance in Slovakia. The opposition, which leads in the polls, is calling for Slovakia to return to the policy of avoiding ‘superpower conflicts’ and is taking increasingly open pro-Russian positions. This way it meets the mood of a large section of the Slovak public who are distrustful of the US. Inside the government, there are concerns about how a rapid end of the reliance on supplies of Russian raw materials will affect the domestic economy and this is making it difficult to reach a consensus on how quickly this should proceed. Halfway through its term in power, the centre-right parties are facing strategic decisions that will also determine their chances of re-election. If the current approach towards Kyiv and the Kremlin is maintained, Slovakia’s position in the EU will strengthen and Russia’s influence in this country may also weaken in the long run. The government, which is not very popular, will have to face the challenge of continuing the effort to become independent of Russian raw material supplies amid an economic downturn and the strong polarisation of public sentiments at home. An alternative may be the continuation of military and humanitarian support for Kyiv, while only simulating activities aimed at energy diversification.

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