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UN Condemns Russia’s Annexation of Ukrainian Regions

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

On 10-12 October, another meeting of the 11th emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) was held, this time on the illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions by the Russian Federation. By an overwhelming majority, the UNGA condemned the act, declaring it a violation of international law. The adopted resolution called on all UN member states and international organisations not to recognise Russia’s annexation acts and on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and end its aggression.

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Negotiations Resume to Resolve the Crisis in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The meeting of representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition on 26 November in Mexico City marked a return to formal negotiations on overcoming the crisis in Venezuela. The parties agreed to establish a humanitarian fund and announced talks on presidential elections in 2024, among other issues. In response, the U.S. announced a conditional relief of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector. Further lifting of restrictions, depending on concessions from the regime of Nicolás Maduro, may be important for the global oil market, although only in a few years’ time.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the Middle of September

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 11 September, thanks to a several-day counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to take control of the Kharkiv region. Fighting is also going on in Kherson Oblast. These actions have raised the morale of the Ukrainian army and society and increased international interest in the war in Ukraine. The further success of Ukraine’s actions will depend on its ability to replenish reserves and increasing Western military support.

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In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

In the annual address on the state of the Union, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced the continuation of support for Ukraine. Though the EC strives to minimise the economic fallout of the Russian aggression, it complicates the implementation of the Union’s projects and is likely to worsen citizens’ living standards.

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New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The parliamentary elections in Australia on 21 May were won by the opposition Labour Party, led by Anthony Albanese, who became the new prime minister. The end of the nine-year liberal-national Coalition is unlikely to mean, however, significant changes in foreign policy, including in relations with the U.S. or China. On the other hand, the new government’s more ambitious climate policy may strengthen Australia’s partnership with the European Union.

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Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

On 20-21 June, the 7th Summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held in Riga, attended by representatives of all countries involved in this format. They focused on actions to increase the effectiveness of the TSI and the competitiveness of the region, but also discussed security issues and a commitment to Ukraine, which has been granted participating partner status in the initiative. The importance of TSI cooperation with the U.S. and Germany is also growing. During the summit, the Polish-Latvian Chamber of Commerce was unveiled.

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G7 Summit in Germany - Support for Ukraine and Combating the Global Effects of Russia’s Aggression

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

On 26-28 June, a meeting of the leaders of the G7 countries took place at Elmau Castle in Bavaria. The key topics were the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy and food crisis. The summit showed the group’s consistency with regard to Russia’s aggression and global challenges, although some of the decisions made are not very ambitious. It will be important for the long-term effectiveness of the G7 to involve partners from other parts of the world, including developing countries, which is one reason for the guest participation in the meeting of the leaders of Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Senegal.

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Deal Signed to Unblock Ukrainian Grain Exports

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

At the initiative of the UN Secretary-General, the countries of Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiye reached an agreement on 22 July to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. However, the resumption of trade is not a foregone conclusion and will depend primarily on the goodwill of the Russian side, which may sabotage the implementation of the agreement by military means.

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Another U.S. Aid Package for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 21 April, U.S. President Joe Biden announced further actions aimed at helping Ukraine. The U.S. is constantly pressing its allies to take similar steps, such as the transfer of armaments, including heavy weapons, as well as financial, economic, and humanitarian aid. The U.S. seeks to forge allied unity in order to maintain Russia’s international isolation, both through sanctions and by providing Ukraine with military equipment so it can effectively defend itself.

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Germany on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

After the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the German government began work on diversifying supplies of energy resources and becoming independent from Russia, which will, however, be a long-term process. In the area of security, Germany is emphasising solidarity with its NATO allies and has announced a decision to significantly increase its defence spending. The war in Ukraine has politically strengthened Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who gained in public opinion polls after announcing a change in direction of German policy.

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The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.

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The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the European Energy Sector

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a rapid reorientation of energy policy in Western countries. Energy cooperation with Russia is now undesirable. A broad consensus has emerged on the need to reduce dependence on imports of Russian raw materials, including countries that previously regarded Russia as a reliable trading partner, such as Germany. The EU supports Ukraine, whose energy security has deteriorated significantly.

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EU Reaction to Russia’s Military Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 24-25 February, an extraordinary summit of the European Council (EUCO) took place in Brussels to discuss the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The EU has adopted strong economic sanctions that will reduce Russia’s financial reserves in the long term. However, they would be more effective if the EU decided to cut off Russian banks immediately from the SWIFT system, a global channel of encrypted communication between financial institutions. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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Russian Disinformation Regarding the Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

In preparation for the military operation against Ukraine, Russia intensified its disinformation efforts against that country and Western states. By attributing responsibility for the escalation of the situation in the Donbas to the Ukrainian armed forces and accusing them of genocide, Russia has sought to fabricate a justification for its decision to recognise the statehood of the self-proclaimed republics and the subsequent launch of its “special military operation”. The Russian invasion has been accompanied by further disinformation activities aimed at the Ukrainian public, NATO, the EU, and their member states. The aim is to create an image of Ukraine as a failed state that is unable to defend its citizens and lacks the support of the West. An increase in the intensity of Russian disinformation activities against Poland, NATO, and the EU should be expected.

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Hungary’s Reaction to the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hungary in principle limits its reaction to adopting EU and NATO decisions. However, the Hungarian government has not taken any actions to sanction Russia on the bilateral level. It does not support Ukraine with equipment and it has announced that it will not allow the EU to deliver “deadly weapons” through its territory. Hungarian state media is repeating Russian disinformation. Russia takes advantage of Hungary’s attitude to indicate divisions in the West over the war in Ukraine.

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Belarus’s Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.

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EU Financial Sanctions on Russia’s Banking Sector

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

On 2 March, the EU published further financial restrictions against Russia adopted in the scope of a third package of sanctions, including those related to the SWIFT system. Despite ambitious declarations at the European Council on 24-25 February, EU sanctions in the banking sector are selective, and the most important EU action so far has been to freeze the reserves of the Central Bank of Russia. To increase the problems of the Russian banking sector, the EU should freeze the assets of all major banks in Russia and cut off its entire sector from SWIFT. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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The Question of Russian Aggression against Ukraine at the UN

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, an emergency session of the United Nations(UN) General Assembly (UNGA) adopted, under the Uniting for Peace procedure, a resolution condemning this act of aggression. The UNGA called on Russia to cease hostilities and to withdraw unconditionally from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.

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Pro-European Opposition Candidate Sandu Wins Moldovan Presidential Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 15 November, Maia Sandu, representing the pro-European opposition, won the second round of the presidential elections in Moldova. With turnout reaching 55%, she gained 57.7% of the votes, defeating the pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon. The president’s Party of Socialists (PSRM) remains the largest power in parliament and its minority government will avoid pro-European reforms.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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