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№210: Forward Defence: a New Approach to NATO’s Defence and Deterrence Policy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to an unprecedented increase in the threat of a Russian attack on NATO. This requires a fundamental shift in the Alliance’s approach to its defence and deterrence policy. As part of what the Alliance calls “forward defence”, the allies should deploy forces on the Eastern Flank that are capable of stopping a Russian attack from the very beginning. To strengthen its deterrence credibility, NATO should also officially end its self-imposed restrictions on the permanent deployment of troops on the Eastern Flank.

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№207: Biden Administration and U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy: Implications for NATO

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Limiting the role of U.S. nuclear weapons to deterring and retaliating against nuclear attacks, as currently under consideration by the Biden administration, would be disadvantageous to NATO. The option of using nuclear weapons in response to non-nuclear aggression is less important for the Alliance than it was during the Cold War, but its rejection by the U.S. would be premature given the ongoing adaptation of NATO’s conventional forces to defence against Russia. Such a shift would weaken the Alliance’s political cohesion, and possibly also the credibility of deterrence of Russia.

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West Increases Heavy Arms Deliveries to Ukraine

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 20 January, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group met at the U.S. Ramstein air base in Germany for its eighth session. Participating countries announced substantial increases in deliveries of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, especially heavier equipment. No agreement was reached, however, on the transfer of Western-made tanks in greater quantity. Germany was still considering whether to send Leopard 2 tanks.

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Leopard and Abrams Tanks to be Delivered to Ukraine

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 25 January, Germany announced it will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and, as their manufacturer, allow other countries to do the same. Shortly after, the U.S. pledged to deliver Abrams tanks to Ukraine. These decisions conclude weeks of intensified discussions during which Germany was resisting Allied calls to provide Ukraine with Leopards while the U.S. was sceptical about sending the Abrams.

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Zelensky Visits European Leaders

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

On 8-9 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United Kingdom, France, Belgium - where he took part in an extraordinary summit of the European Council - and Poland. The trip was a success in terms of public relations and brought, among other things, promises of new military aid to Ukraine.

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Biden Visits Kyiv Unannounced

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 20 February, U.S. President Joe Biden made surprise trip to Ukraine. The visit, which took place a few days before the anniversary of the 2022 Russian invasion, is greatly symbolic for Ukraine and confirmation of the U.S. role as a key Ukrainian partner. President Biden announced the delivery of a new military assistance package. His visit to Kyiv was part of a wider trip to Central Europe, an important element of which will be meetings and a speech in Warsaw.

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Military Situation in Ukraine as of 10 March 2023

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the heaviest fighting has been taking place in the Donetsk region, especially in the city of Bakhmut. Its capture is important for the Russians both for propaganda and military reasons because it may facilitate a further westward offensive, among other things. The need to effectively stop the Russian actions means the importance of rapid deliveries of Western equipment to Ukraine and training of Ukrainian soldiers conducted in NATO countries is growing.

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EU Plans for Increased Ammunition Production

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 23 March, EU leaders accepted a plan to increase the delivery of artillery ammunition to Ukraine and reconstitute Member State stockpiles. This should free-up still-available reserves for Ukraine and lead to a higher level of ammunition production in Europe. It is another EU initiative for military assistance to Ukraine financed from European Peace Facility (EPF) funds. The success of the plan demands further engagement by the Member States and EU institutions to change the current operating mode of ammunition producers in Europe.

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Russia Preparing the Deployment of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Vladimir Putin’s remarks on the preparation of infrastructure to place Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus is another attempt to intimidate the West. The deployment of these weapons will not fundamentally change the military situation in the region, but the announcement again demonstrates Russia’s use of nuclear threats for aggressive purposes and Russian control over Belarus. The move thus reaffirms the need for further strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture.

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Prigozhin’s Revolt Holds Implications for the Putin Regime in Russia

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 23-24 June, Russia witnessed a military revolt by the Wagner Group, a private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. This was the most serious crisis in the political system in Russia since the beginning of Putin’s presidency and weakened him. It will become increasingly difficult for him to act as an arbiter between factions competing for influence and to remain a guarantor of security for the power elite.

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NATO Vilnius Summit Takes Crucial Decisions

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

At the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July, the Allies approved new defence plans, which should be augmented with the development of bigger and better-equipped forces. The Alliance also adopted a new support package for Ukraine, but did not offer an invitation or clear timetable for Ukraine’s membership.

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Wagner Group Arrives in Belarus - Potential Threats to Poland

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

More than a dozen convoys with Wagner Group mercenaries have already arrived in Belarus and their numbers in the country are estimated at between 3,000 and 5,000. Officially, the task of the Wagner troops is to train the Belarusian army. However, Alexander Lukashenka’s statements suggest that they could be used for border provocations against countries on NATO’s Eastern Flank. Poland should strengthen the protection of its eastern border and consider recognising the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation. The country may also seek to develop a common NATO approach to the organisation.

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Saudi Arabia Hosts International Consultations on Peace in Ukraine

Author(s): Sara Nowacka,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

International consultations on peace in Ukraine were held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on 5-6 August. They were attended by representatives of 40 countries, including those from Africa, South America, and Asia. Russia was not invited to the talks. The meeting was a platform for efforts to build support for a peace plan emphasising the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity among countries that have not yet taken a firm stance on Russian aggression.

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Russia Conducts Pseudo-Referendums in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

On 23-27 September, in the occupied territories of Ukraine, Russia held what it called referendums on annexation of the territory. The aim of these illegal referendums is to consolidate power in the occupied regions and to try to prevent Ukraine from reclaiming them. Russia is also sending a signal to the EU and NATO countries to refrain from military assistance to Ukraine under the threat of using nuclear weapons.

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European Political Community Meets for the First Time

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The European Political Community (EPC) summit took place in Prague on 6 October. The aim of this format, proposed in May this year by the French presidency of the Council of the EU, is to strengthen Europe’s security and stability through EU cooperation with countries crucial to its military and energy security. However, there is a risk that such a broad cooperation format will fail to agree on concrete objectives, while some countries will not be favourably disposed towards pursuing common agreed priorities.

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Consequences of the Explosion on the Crimean Bridge

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 8 October, an explosion took place on the Crimean Bridge connecting the occupied Crimea with Russia. As a result, one side of the double road crossing and the railway were damaged. The bridge is key to the Russians’ supply of Crimea and the transfer of troops and weapons to the south of Ukraine. In response, Russia launched massive missile attacks against Ukraine, mainly against civilian targets and energy infrastructure. There is a growing need to support Ukraine with air defence systems.

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Belarus Announces the Formation of a Regional Forces Group with Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 10 October, Alexander Lukashenka announced the first-ever formation of a Regional Forces Group (RFG) of Belarus and Russia on Belarusian territory. At the same time, he announced a test of the combat readiness of the Belarusian armed forces and a state of increased terrorist threat. These actions may prove that Lukashenka does not want the direct involvement of Belarusian troops in the war in Ukraine. Although he emphasised the need to respond to the perceived threat posed by NATO countries, especially Poland, Lukashenka may refuse to send his forces into battle. However, the Regional Forces Group poses an additional challenge to the Ukrainian defence and may be used by Russia to escalate tensions with NATO.

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The Strategic and Military Situation in Ukraine After It Liberated Kherson

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 11 November, Ukraine restored control over Kherson and the right bank of the Kherson region. The recapture of this city has important political, psychological, and military significance. At the same time, intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. For the counter-offensive activities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to continue to be successful, it is necessary to maintain at least the current level of supplies of Western military equipment.

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For the Sixth Time, Netanyahu Forms New Government

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

On 29 December, a new cabinet in Israel was sworn in, led by Benjamin Netanyahu and formed by religious and right-wing parties. The participation of far-right politicians in the government and the planned reforms, concerning the judiciary, among others, will exacerbate the divisions in Israeli politics and society. In foreign policy, the regional dimension will be the most prominent, especially normalisation with Arab states and the conflict with Iran.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after 11 Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

In recent days, the most severe fighting has taken place in eastern Ukraine, mainly in the vicinity of Kharkiv where the Ukrainian defenders conducted an effective counteroffensive, pushing Russian forces towards the border. The Russians maintain positions in the south of Ukraine and are shelling Odesa from the Black Sea. In the near future, Russia will focus on maintaining the areas it has occupied in the southeast of Ukraine and on further offensives in Donbas, while Ukraine will concentrate on defence and additional counter-offensives where possible.

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