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Russia’s Reaction to the NATO Summit in Madrid

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The NATO Madrid summit decisions were described by the Russian authorities as confirmation of the Alliance’s hostile policy towards Russia. At the same time, their reaction was subdued, which does not mean, however, that they are disregarding the decisions made by the Alliance. In response to NATO increasing deterrence and defence capabilities on the Eastern Flank, Russia is likely to further strengthen the Western Military District and deepen its military integration with Belarus. The dislocation of more Russian troops to Belarusian territory will create new challenges for regional security.

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NATO Missile Defence in the Context of Russia’s War with Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Russia is widely using its conventional missile arsenal against Ukraine. The intense use of these weapons against targets in the western part of the country raises the risk of accidental strikes on NATO territory, although the possibility of intentional strikes cannot be excluded. NATO has implemented a few steps to strengthen missile defences on its Eastern Flank, but a much better explanation of its capabilities is needed to reassure Alliance publics, as are augmented capabilities to deter Russia from regional escalation.

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Xi-Biden Meeting: China Maintains Support for Russia

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The online meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Chairman Xi Jinping on 18 March confirmed China’s readiness to strengthen cooperation with the Russian Federation in the context of the war in Ukraine. In response to the U.S. warnings against supporting Russia, Xi claimed the U.S. was responsible for the outbreak of the war and called on it to negotiate with Russia. He also expressed concerns about the stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, accusing the U.S. of supporting groups backing Taiwan’s independence.

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Special NATO Summit in Brussels

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

An extraordinary NATO leaders summit on the war in Ukraine was held on 24 March in Brussels. The allies decided, among others, to strengthen the NATO military presence on the Eastern Flank and to increase military support for Ukraine. The Alliance is also working on long-term adaptation to the threat posed by Russia, but decisions on this issue are to be approved at the June summit in Madrid.

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Changes in Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 28 March, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for Vladimir Putin, ruled out the use of nuclear weapons during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This apparent softening of rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons does not mean, however, that Russia will stop using nuclear threats. Russia’s aim is still to maintain ambiguity regarding the actual threshold for use of nuclear weapons. While the danger of nuclear escalation would be real in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict, both NATO and Russia want to avoid such a development. The Russian threats should therefore not stop the West from increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions.

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EU-China Summit: The EU warns China against further support for Russia

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

During the EU-China virtual summit on 1 April, representatives of the European Union presented to Chinese leaders the consequences that China may suffer by providing Russia with economic and military support. Bilateral issues were also discussed, including Chinese economic restrictions on Lithuania. The summit confirmed China’s reluctance to change its confrontational policy.

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Iran’s Attitude to Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Iran’s cautious approach towards Russia’s war with Ukraine, and its lack of condemnation, are a result of the “strategic partnership” between Russia and Iran, and of hostility to the United States. Iran will not actively support Russia, despite two decades of this partnership and both countries’ claims that the war is the fault of the U.S. and NATO. Regional concerns in the context of an anticipated reduction in Russia’s military presence in Syria and Armenia, and prospects of the removal of U.S. sanctions (with the possible renewal of nuclear deal conditions) are crucial influences on Iran’s attitude.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Seven Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of April, Russia has been focusing on operations mainly in the east and, to a lesser extent, the south of Ukraine, while it has withdrawn its forces from the north of the country, including the vicinity of Kyiv. This shows that the priorities of military action have changed and are now focused on the occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, including Mariupol, and maintaining their position in the south of Ukraine. Until it attains these goals and declares its operation a success, Russia will be unlikely to suspend the hostilities.

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Slovakia’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia has supported its neighbour diplomatically with humanitarian aid and military resources. The war in the country next door, particularly the inflow of refugees, is a logistical challenge for the Slovak authorities as well as politically because of ongoing internal disputes. However, it represents another political and social breakthrough in terms of defining Slovakia’s national security and the perception of Russia in the country.

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Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine and the Threat to Cultural Heritage

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The shelling and bombing of Ukrainian cities threaten the cultural heritage of Ukraine, including the most important sites inscribed on the UNESCO list. International law provides for the protection of cultural property, and the provisions of the relevant conventions are applicable during this war. Given the scale of the Russian attacks, the international community should join Ukraine’s efforts to preserve endangered assets.

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Canada’s Reaction to the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

During his trip to Europe on 6-11 March, which included a visit to Warsaw, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tightened cooperation with NATO allies (Germany, Latvia, and the UK) on support for Ukraine. Following Russia’s attack, Trudeau announced subsequent shipments of military equipment for Ukraine, including lethal weapons. The goal of his trip also was to coordinate economic sanctions and humanitarian aid for refugees. Closer cooperation with Poland on issues of delivering humanitarian help and evacuating Ukrainian refugees from Poland and Central European countries to Canada will be crucial.

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Belarusian-Russian Cooperation During the War with Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were cooperating closely militarily and politically. Although the Belarusian army has not taken part in the fighting, Russia is using Belarus as a base to conduct hostilities in Ukraine. Maintaining such cooperation with Russia will mean further political and economic losses for Belarus.

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No-Fly Zone over Ukraine?

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Ukrainian authorities have been appealing to the international community and NATO to introduce a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Ukraine. NATO is not willing to do that because of the risk of direct conflict with Russia and the threat of a nuclear escalation. However, the allies can support Ukraine in a way that seriously limits the effectiveness of Russian air attacks.

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The Potential Use of Chemical Weapons by Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the alleged chemical weapons threat from Ukrainian paramilitary forces has been a significant element of Russian disinformation. These suggestions intensified with the lack of a military breakthrough and might be laying the groundwork for some use chemical weapons by Russia. The risk that Russia could do this has been indicated by U.S. administration officials, the president of Poland, and the head of NATO, among others. The next declarations of Western countries on this issue should be based on an agreed set of political and military consequences of any potential chemical attack by Russia.

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A Watershed Moment: Denmark on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Faced with Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Denmark declared its intention to fulfil its NATO commitment to allocate 2% of GDP to defence spending. Due to the deteriorating security situation in Europe, the country also wants to add an EU component to its defence policy based on NATO membership and partnership with the U.S. It intends to become involved in the Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy, in which it has not participated so far.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Three Weeks of War

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 16 March, the third week of the war in Ukraine ended. Russian troops still have not broken through the main lines of the Ukrainian defences and captured Kyiv. For the Ukrainians to continue their staunch defence, supplies from Western countries in the form of weapons and humanitarian and economic aid are crucial.

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The Situation in Mariupol

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Mariupol has been under siege since 4 March. The city is a key port for Ukraine on the Azov Sea. For Russia, occupation of the city has both military and symbolic significance. The duration and constriction of the blockade has led to a humanitarian disaster in Mariupol. A prolonged siege of the city may lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, bearing the hallmarks of a crime against humanity.

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A Change in NATO’s Approach to Deterrence

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The special meeting of defence ministers on 16 March and the special summit of NATO leaders on 24 March indicate that the Alliance is accelerating work on strengthening its defence and deterrence. According to the NATO Secretary General, the Alliance must redefine its approach to deterrence in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

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The Course of the Hostilities in Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On the ninth day of military operations in Ukraine, Russian troops continued to focus on four directions of attack, the most important of which, politically and militarily, is Kyiv. Russian forces face considerable resistance from the Ukrainian army and the society. In the coming days, it is excepted that humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from the encircled cities will be established.

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Turkey’s Response to Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, calling it a gross violation of international law and a serious threat to world security. It also called for an end to the hostilities and expressed support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Turkey also suggested it might close the Black Sea straits to ships of the Russian Navy, which would be a clear political sign of support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.

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