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A Crash Test: EU Strategic Autonomy in the Foreign Policy of France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

France uses the idea of EU strategic autonomy as a tool in its own foreign policy. France’s aim is to redefine the Union’s partnership with the U.S. and NATO. Hence, the activity of President Emmanuel Macron in emphasising the differences between the positions of the U.S. and the EU, especially in relations with China and Russia. Macron’s rhetoric worries other European countries and hides the real problems in EU security policy, such as insufficient financing of the Common Security and Defence Policy as well as the lack of a clear definition of strategic autonomy.

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The Importance of Western Arms Supplies for Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

On 27 February, the EU made the unprecedented decision to finance arms supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces. Until now, military aid (arms, ammunition, military equipment, and supplies) had only been provided to Ukraine by some EU countries (including Poland), as well as the U.S., UK, and Canada. Recently, most EU states have joined the effort, including Germany, which had restricted such aid. Western military aid, alongside sanctions, is key to influencing the course of the conflict. Russia will seek to limit it by, among other things, disinformation and hybrid actions.

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Romania’s Reaction to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Romania unequivocally condemned the Russian invasion and is providing assistance to Ukrainian war refugees. It supported the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the European Union and has sent humanitarian aid and military equipment to Ukraine. Poland and Romania face similar challenges related to refugees from the war and share a perception of the threat of Russian aggression. Polish-Romanian intergovernmental consultations in Warsaw on 3 March provided an opportunity for better coordination of activities and positions.

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The Russian Attack on Ukraine and Risks to Nuclear Infrastructure (As of 10:45 on 4 March 2022)

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion has increased the risks for civilian nuclear infrastructure in Ukraine. Russian troops so far have captured the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant complex and Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Enerhodar. The intense use of artillery, rockets, and bombs may become a direct threat to various nuclear sector centres in Ukraine. However, the probability for contamination is low. Nevertheless, in case of such a scenario, its impact on Ukraine and its neighbours would be serious, and in an extreme case, catastrophic.

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No Reset: Biden-Putin Meet in Geneva

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on 16 June in Geneva. It was the final stop of the American president’s trip to Europe, but it did not bring a breakthrough in bilateral relations. Russia and the U.S. agreed to return ambassadors to their posts and to resume talks on strategic stability, especially arms control, and to start a dialogue on cybersecurity issues.

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AUKUS: Australia, UK, and the U.S. Strengthen Defence Cooperation

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 15 September, the leaders of Australia, UK, and the U.S. announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The deepening cooperation in this area between Australia and the U.S. will strengthen the network of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific crucial for counteracting China’s growing military potential. However, by keeping the AUKUS negotiations secret from EU allies and forcing France out of its contract to provide non-nuclear submarines to Australia, tensions in transatlantic relations have flared again, which undermines the prospects of coherent U.S. and EU policy towards the Indo-Pacific.

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The U.S. 2022 Defence Budget Request

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 28 May, the Biden administration presented a full U.S. budget request for fiscal year 2022, asking Congress for $715 billion for the Department of Defense (a nominal increase of 1.6% over the 2021 funding levels, although it would amount to a slight decrease in real terms once inflation is taken into account). The proposal emphasises strengthening deterrence of China and quality over the size of the armed forces, along with the development of new types of military capabilities.

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Slovaks' Perception of the War in Ukraine is Changing - a Socio-Political Perspective

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Slovak support for Ukraine in the war with Russia results from the attitude of the authorities, and not from cross-party or social consensus. The continuation of this policy after the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 September is uncertain, given the position of the opposition party, Direction–Slovak Social Democracy (Smer-SSD), which is leading in almost all this year’s polls. Specifically, the party announced the suspension of military and political support for Ukraine. This is in line with the pro-Russian sympathies of a large part of society. The possible co-creation of a government by this party would be a challenge for Poland and would further weaken the Central European voice on security and eastern issues.

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Canada Increases Indo-Pacific Activity - Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Justin Trudeau’s government seeks to increase Canada’s influence on security in the Indo-Pacific with the goal of decreasing any possible risks of a crisis erupting and threatening Canada’s economic interests. The country’s engagement in the region will strengthen its position as a key ally of the U.S. However, this will occur at the cost of attention and activity in Europe, which stands in contradiction to its NATO declarations.

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Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian Federation, despite its limited abilities, has significantly strengthened its influence in Africa over recent years through the skillful use of its economic tools and ‘controlled chaos’ –a set of aggressive actions designed to stoke existing conflicts with the aim of managing them later on. This policy has helped to destabilize the continent and exacerbate its tendencies towards authoritarian rule. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated Africa’s predicament by jeopardising its food security. Africa’s disillusionment with Russia is likely to increase in the near future for this reason. Russia’s limited offer for Africa, the uneven benefits of their mutual cooperation, the Kremlin’s paternalistic attitude towards its partners and the negative consequences of its activity for regional security will all help to erode its appeal. As a result, African countries will grow more assertive towards Russia and its options will narrow, which will make it more difficult for the Kremlin to expand and maintain its influence on the continent.

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Konsekwencje buntu Prigożyna dla systemu putinowskiego w Rosji

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

Z 23 na 24 czerwca br. doszło w Rosji do buntu wojskowego Grupy Wagnera (GW), prywatnej firmy wojskowej kierowanej przez Jewgienija Prigożyna. Był to najpoważniejszy od początku sprawowania władzy przez Putina kryzyssystemu politycznego w Rosji,skutkujący osłabieniem pozycji prezydenta. Coraz trudniej będzie mu pełnić rolę arbitra między konkurującymi o wpływy frakcjami i pozostawać gwarantem bezpieczeństwa dla elity władzy.

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Najważniejsze decyzje szczytu NATO w Wilnie

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): Polish

Na szczycie NATO w Wilnie 11–12 lipca br. sojusznicy zatwierdzili nowe plany obronne, które powinny być wsparte znacznym zwiększeniem liczebności wojsk i inwestycjami w sprzęt i uzbrojenie. Sojusz przyjął też nowy pakiet wsparcia dla Ukrainy. Nie zdecydowałsię jednak na niezwłoczne wystosowanie zaproszenia dla Ukrainy do NATO.

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Rosja przygotowuje rozmieszczenie broni jądrowej na Białorusi

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): Polish

Wypowiedź Władimira Putina o przygotowaniach infrastruktury do rozmieszczenia na Białorusi rosyjskich głowic jądrowych jest kolejną próbą zastraszenia Zachodu. Ich rozlokowanie nie zmieni fundamentalnie sytuacji wojskowej w regionie. Zapowiedź jest natomiast kolejnym świadectwem agresywnego wykorzystywania broni jądrowej przez Rosję i jej kontroli nad Białorusią. Przypomina o potrzebie dalszego wzmacniania zdolności NATO do odstraszania i obrony.

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Orędzie Alaksandra Łukaszenki

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

31 marca br. Alaksandar Łukaszenka wygłosiłzwyczajowe orędzie, w którym skoncentrowałsię na zagrożeniach dla niepodległości Białorusi i uzasadniał decyzję o rozmieszczeniu rosyjskiej broni jądrowej na białoruskim terytorium. Łukaszenka powtarzał propagandowe tezy Rosji na temat wojny na Ukrainie oraz wskazywał na rzekome zagrożenie ze strony Polski i NATO. W odpowiedzi na postępującą militaryzację Białorusi NATO powinno wzmocnić swoje zdolności do odstraszania i obrony.

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Niezapowiedziana wizyta Joe Bidena w Kijowie

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): Polish

Prezydent Joe Biden udał się w niezapowiedzianą podróż na Ukrainę. Wizyta, która miała miejsce 20 lutego, kilka dni przed pierwszą rocznicą rosyjskiej inwazji, ma duże znaczenie symboliczne dla Ukrainy. Jest także potwierdzeniem, że USA pełnią rolę kluczowego ukraińskiego partnera. W Kijowie prezydent USA zapowiedział m.in. przekazanie Ukrainie nowego pakietu wsparcia militarnego. Wizyta była częścią podróży Bidena do Europy Środkowej, której ważnym elementem będzie wystąpienie i spotkania w Warszawie.

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Orędzie Putina - rok wojny w oblężonej twierdzy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

21 lutego br. Władimir Putin wygłosił orędzie przed Zgromadzeniem Federalnym (połączonymi izbami rosyjskiego parlamentu). Powtórzył oskarżenia wobec NATO i USA, które rzekomo odpowiadają za wojnę na Ukrainie. Wystąpienie było skierowane głównie do wewnętrznych odbiorców. Miało ich nastawić na długotrwałe zmagania o zwycięstwo Rosji na Ukrainie, a zwykłych Rosjan zniechęcić do kontaktów z Zachodem.

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Wizyta Alaksandra Łukaszenki w Chinach

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 1-2 marca 2023 r. Alaksandr Łukaszenka przebywał z oficjalną wizytą w Chinach. W jej trakcie podpisano szereg dwustronnych deklaracji politycznych i gospodarczych. Mimo braku oficjalnych komunikatów na ten temat jednymiz ważniejszych wątków rozmów były też kwestie bezpieczeństwa. Bliższa współpraca Białorusi i Chin będzie korzystna dla Rosji z perspektywy jej agresji na Ukrainę.

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The significant political declaration and the forthcoming 10th NPT review conference

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (the jubilee of this conference series) will be held at the UN Headquarters in New York from 27th April until the 22nd May, 2020. The importance of its being held has been underlined by not just the escalation of the security situation due to the continued dismantlement of the US-Russia arms-control system and the growing threat of the nuclear arms-race, but also the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the important NPT Treaty as well. On this occasion fifteen ministers of foreign affairs of the NPT’s non-nuclear weapon states, united in The Stockholm Initiative on Nuclear Disarmament, have published the Political Declaration with an Annex in February 2020. The annexed document, above all, appeals to all of the NPT’s participating states to negotiate and accept some measures recommended in the Annex to advance the nuclear disarmament process. The Annex’s list of recommended measures, the so-called stepping stones, is not exhaustive one, as stressed by the authors. However, according to the ministers their implementation could contribute to the deflection of the current dangerous development in the security situation and to the step-by-step implementation of the generally approved vision of the creation of a world without nuclear weapons. The Political Declaration’s appeal, in relation to the necessity to implement all past commitments of previous Review Conferences which remain valid, has been directly focused on five so-called declared nuclear-weapon states (France, Great Britain, the PRC, the RF and the US) and their lacks in the area of nuclear disarmament commitments. One of the main reason for the different position of the majority of the NPT’s non-nuclear weapon states to the solving of nuclear disarmament matters has been the continuation of the modernization of nuclear warheads and their means of delivery, which the nuclear-weapon states has been justified by pointing to the necessity of nuclear deterrence.

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The conference on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The historically first session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction was held on 18–22 November 2019 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, pursuant to General Assembly decision 73/546. Twenty three Middle Eastern states, four observer states (Chína, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom), three relevant international organizations (the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit) and some other international organzations e.g. the LAS, the OIC and the EU, participated in the session, which was presided over by Jordanian Ambassador Sima Bahous. At the open sessions, non-governmental organizations took part as well. The United States and Israel declined the invitation to take part. In the conclusion of the conference, the participating states consensually approved the seven-point Political Declaration, which has a general and proclamatory character, and is an appendix to the Final Report (A/CONF.236/6).

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The present development in the nuclear arms control

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The reflection highlights the need to increase the international nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control efforts, particularly in the wake of the security crisis development triggered by the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it examines the courses and results of two important conferences dealing with nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, that were organized this year. These conferences were the first Meeting of the States-Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna in June and the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which took place in August at the UN Headquarters in New York. The conclusions contain some expected courses of action to reduce the risk of a nuclear war and a nuclear arms race.

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