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Another U.S. Aid Package for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 21 April, U.S. President Joe Biden announced further actions aimed at helping Ukraine. The U.S. is constantly pressing its allies to take similar steps, such as the transfer of armaments, including heavy weapons, as well as financial, economic, and humanitarian aid. The U.S. seeks to forge allied unity in order to maintain Russia’s international isolation, both through sanctions and by providing Ukraine with military equipment so it can effectively defend itself.

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Germany on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

After the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the German government began work on diversifying supplies of energy resources and becoming independent from Russia, which will, however, be a long-term process. In the area of security, Germany is emphasising solidarity with its NATO allies and has announced a decision to significantly increase its defence spending. The war in Ukraine has politically strengthened Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who gained in public opinion polls after announcing a change in direction of German policy.

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The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.

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The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the European Energy Sector

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a rapid reorientation of energy policy in Western countries. Energy cooperation with Russia is now undesirable. A broad consensus has emerged on the need to reduce dependence on imports of Russian raw materials, including countries that previously regarded Russia as a reliable trading partner, such as Germany. The EU supports Ukraine, whose energy security has deteriorated significantly.

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Military Coup in Burkina Faso

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 24 January, the Burkina Faso military arrested President Roch Kaboré and seized state power. The coup was the result of frustration within the armed forces over the inability of the authorities to effectively fight the jihadists. The coup will complicate the conditions of international engagement, including the EU’s, in the Sahel.

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Legal Aspects of the Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, carried out with the support of Belarus, is a violation of the norms of international law that form the basis of the international order shaped after the Second World War. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justifications of the attack are legally questionable and contradictory to facts. There are also violations of humanitarian law being committed in the course of the hostilities, especially concerning the protection of civilians. The aim of the international community should be to stop the aggression and hold accountable states and individuals responsible for these violations.

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EU Reaction to Russia’s Military Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 24-25 February, an extraordinary summit of the European Council (EUCO) took place in Brussels to discuss the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The EU has adopted strong economic sanctions that will reduce Russia’s financial reserves in the long term. However, they would be more effective if the EU decided to cut off Russian banks immediately from the SWIFT system, a global channel of encrypted communication between financial institutions. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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Russian Disinformation Regarding the Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

In preparation for the military operation against Ukraine, Russia intensified its disinformation efforts against that country and Western states. By attributing responsibility for the escalation of the situation in the Donbas to the Ukrainian armed forces and accusing them of genocide, Russia has sought to fabricate a justification for its decision to recognise the statehood of the self-proclaimed republics and the subsequent launch of its “special military operation”. The Russian invasion has been accompanied by further disinformation activities aimed at the Ukrainian public, NATO, the EU, and their member states. The aim is to create an image of Ukraine as a failed state that is unable to defend its citizens and lacks the support of the West. An increase in the intensity of Russian disinformation activities against Poland, NATO, and the EU should be expected.

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Hungary’s Reaction to the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hungary in principle limits its reaction to adopting EU and NATO decisions. However, the Hungarian government has not taken any actions to sanction Russia on the bilateral level. It does not support Ukraine with equipment and it has announced that it will not allow the EU to deliver “deadly weapons” through its territory. Hungarian state media is repeating Russian disinformation. Russia takes advantage of Hungary’s attitude to indicate divisions in the West over the war in Ukraine.

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Belarus’s Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.

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The Question of Russian Aggression against Ukraine at the UN

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, an emergency session of the United Nations(UN) General Assembly (UNGA) adopted, under the Uniting for Peace procedure, a resolution condemning this act of aggression. The UNGA called on Russia to cease hostilities and to withdraw unconditionally from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.

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Letter by Four Defence Ministers about the Future of European Defence

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

On 30 May, the defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain issued a joint letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and their counterparts in the EU Member States. The letter proposes to deepen the recent reforms of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

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The Normandy Format Summit - No Real Progress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) summit, held in Paris on 9 December for the first time since 2016, did not bring any breakthrough in the negotiations regarding settling the situation in Donbas. The Russian authorities still lack the political will necessary to end the conflict.

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Unijny plan zwiększenia produkcji amunicji

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

23 marca przywódcy państw UE zaakceptowali plan zwiększenia dostaw amunicji artyleryjskiej dla Ukrainy i odbudowy rezerw w Europie. Dzięki temu powinno dojść do uwolnienia niewykorzystanych jeszcze rezerw i przekazania ich Ukrainie oraz zwiększenia produkcji w państwach europejskich. Jest to kolejna inicjatywa pomocy wojskowej UE dla Ukrainy finansowana ze środków Europejskiego Instrumentu na rzecz Pokoju (EPF). Jej powodzenie wymagać będzie dalszego zaangażowania państw członkowskich i instytucji UE, tak aby zmienić dotychczasowy tryb pracy producentów amunicji w Europie.

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Wizyta Joe Bidena w Polsce

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 20-22 lutego br., po powrocie z Kijowa, prezydent USA Joe Biden przebywał w Polsce. Wizyta miała na celu podkreślenie roli Polski i państw regionu w zakresie pomocy udzielanej Ukrainie. Kolejny raz zaznaczyła też jedność sojuszu państw demokratycznych trwającą przez rok rosyjskiej agresji oraz ich gotowość do dalszego wsparcia militarnego zwycięstwa Ukrainy.

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A global arms control regime on short and medium-range missiles

Author(s): Matúš Halás / Language(s): English

A global alternative to the former INF Treaty is a feasible solution to the current crisis of the arms control regime that can significantly improve regional stability in Asia. It will not harm vital interests of its signatories provided it will not limit ground-launched delivery vehicles with a range greater than 3,000 km and existing TELs. Given the shifting security environment in Europe, the EU nations should join the German-led development and procurement of an integrated air and missile defence system. The deterrence dynamics also warrant a French-led joint European development and procurement of air-launched cruise missiles with a range greater than 2,000 km.

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How should Europe address Iran’s missile proliferation activities?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.

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The Abraham Accords: a game changer for the region and Europe’s role in it?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

The normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, that were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020, have the potential to strengthen economic integration while also fostering wider regional security partnerships. The deepening of regional ties could pave the way for broader cooperation propelling joint efforts in addressing issues such as energy security and climate change. The normalization agreements present new opportunities for cooperation not only for the region but also beyond it, including for the European Union. Yet the Abraham Accords are facing a number of challenges which could constrain the expansion of the normalization process. There is a disparity in how the political elites and the broader Arab public view the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, the new Israeli government led by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu includes several members that hold extreme positions on issues such as the Palestinian question and the status of holy sites in Jerusalem. The new government is liable to take actions that could heighten regional tensions and damage the normalization process. The Abraham Accords are popular in Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and other countries in the region have a unique opportunity to influence the new Netanyahu government and the wider Israeli public by linking progress on normalization to Israel stopping harmful policies that damage the long-term prospects of peace with the Palestinians. The EU has expressed measured support for the Abraham Accords, but it should actively encourage these states and potential new signatories to the accords to condition progress on Israel stopping counter-productive policies which could lead to a serious escalation in the region.

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