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№166: How Russian Violations of the 1997 Founding Act Influence NATO-Russia Relations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The NATO-Russia Founding Act adopted in 1997 reflected the consensus within the Alliance that new security architecture in Europe should be based on three pillars: enlargement of transformed NATO, European integration and partnership with Russia. Self-limitation on the stationing and deployment of troops in the territories of new NATO members was conditioned upon Russia’s observance of the rule-based order. After the annexation of Crimea, the Allies decided to respect the spirit of the Founding Act to limit the risk of escalation and defend the security system Russia is interested in derailing. The Allies, however, should adopt a less dogmatic approach to NRFA, which would offer additional flexibility in strengthening NATO’s cohesion and influencing Russian calculations.

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№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

On the eve of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is modifying its so-far lukewarm policy towards this country. The potential for a security vacuum after 2014 has raised China’s concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and its effects on the region, including possible terrorist attacks, an influx of militants, inter-ethnic fights, cross-border crime and more, all of which may have a negative impact on China’s security and domestic stability. These possible threats have forced the PRC to adopt a more proactive approach towards Afghanistan. The scope of tools is wide, and include the appointment of China’s first special envoy to Afghanistan, and a rising level of Chinese engagement in various international mechanisms focused on regional security. It creates a chance for the EU, to cooperate with Beijing on security issues.

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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№23: How to Upgrade Poland’s Approach to the Western Balkans? Ideas for the Polish Presidency of the V4

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Ever since the European Union expressed its commitment and support to the Western Balkans states’ ambitions to join the Community, the region has for years constituted the central scene for EU enlargement and Common Foreign and Security Policy. Yet, some of the Balkan countries also wish to be included in NATO. Processes linked to accession to both organisations have shown that each country differs in its development and willingness to reform and that there are political difficulties regardless of these countries’ attitudes towards the EU or NATO. These factors make the Balkan agenda exceptionally complex and the relationship between the states and the EU and NATO filled with a range of ups and downs.

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№14: Libya: Too Hot to Handle

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The rapidly evolving events around the crisis in Libya will be the first test of this kind for the European countries that lead diplomatic efforts against Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi. France’s symbolic first strike in operation “Odyssey Dawn” was quickly followed by an American lead offensive. The American administration, deeply involved in Afghanistan and still effectively responsible for Iraq’s security, wanted to avert the impression that they were leading yet another military offensive against a mostly Muslim country. However, the crisis shows deep divisions within the international community, NATO, the EU and the arrayed coalition itself. It is a high-risk but also a possible high-gain type of operation although there is not enough evidence to suggest that Qaddafi has completely lost popular support or that the opposition speaks on behalf of the majority of Libyans. As the awakening wave is sweeping the Middle East, events in Libya set a precedent for other Arab countries and citizens, torn between their quest for dignity and reluctance to accept outside intervention.

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№6: NATO after the Georgian Conflict: A New Course or Business as Usual?

Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, unlike the European Union, could not have played a mediating role in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This was primarily dictated by the position of Russia, which was opposed to NATO involvement in the region and which saw NATO as a de facto party to the conflict. Georgia, on the other hand, has long expected an unequivocal decision by the Alliance concerning its Atlantic aspirations and membership, not to mention NATO’s immediate support for its position in the conflict. This placed NATO in an exceptionally delicate situation as a mediator, especially if one considers the Alliance’s present members’ diverging views on the question of Georgia’s NATO membership and their doubts and differing assessments of the causes of the conflict and where to lay the blame for its outbreak.

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№4: The European Army – How to Do It Right?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The current difficulties in the European Union, caused by the result of the Irish referendum, show that bold projects regarding European integration can be misunderstood and cause serious concerns. One of such initiatives is the idea of a European Army, which is likely to trigger equally ardent discussions. Hence, we propose to look at the issue from a different perspective. The idea of a European Army dates back to the beginning of the European integration process of the 1950s. Even though the Pleven plan collapsed, other projects, aiming to create joint European military capabilities, were later discussed regularly (e.g. attempts to reactivate the Western European Union in the 1980s). Today, almost a decade since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, the discussion on the EU’s military capabilities is more dynamic than ever before. The reason is simple: the actual shape of the ESDP does not live up to the growing demand for a more active European Union made by many EU member states as well as by other significant actors in international relations.

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№2: ISAF Operation in Afghanistan and the Future of NATO – Time for Change

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

It is often stated that the mission in Afghanistan cannot be won using only military means. It can surely be lost, however, due to a failure of military performance by NATO and due to unrealistic operation goals. The Alliance currently faces two major challenges. The first has to do with the reluctance of some of the Allies to commit troops to counter-insurgency tasks. Without a major change in the Afghan policies of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece, NATO will face a series of ‘blackmail crises’, when countries engaged in the south and east of the country threaten to withdraw their forces unless they are replaced or given additional support. It seems certain that NATO is going to manage successfully its first blackmail crisis, caused by Canada’s justifiable demand for an additional 1,000 troops for Kandahar (it appears that support has been offered by the United States, France and Poland). However, the ability to placate the displeased Allies on an ad hoc basis is limited, and a more fundamental change of policy is necessary.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

For several decades, NATO has been developing crisis-management mechanisms to cope with natural disasters, humanitarian crises, and pandemics. However, during the first weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, the Alliance decided to focus on maintaining its capacity to defend territory and deter adversaries. Although this is NATO’s primary task, the lack of a visible response to the crisis may reduce public support for the Alliance, diminish its significance, and ultimately weaken its ability to conduct its collective defence mission.

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Pandemia COVID-19 – konsekwencje dla NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): Polish

NATO od kilku dekad rozwija mechanizmy zarządzania kryzysowego, w tym także na wypadek katastrof naturalnych, kryzysów humanitarnych czy pandemii. W pierwszych tygodniach pandemii COVID-19 za priorytet uznało jednak utrzymanie zdolności do odstraszania i obrony. Chociaż jest to głównym zadaniem NATO, brak widocznej reakcji na obecny kryzys może zmniejszyć społeczne poparcie dla Sojuszu, spowodować spadek jego znaczenia i w efekcie osłabić zdolność do prowadzenia wspólnych misji.

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Foreign Military Presence in Iraq in Light of the Iran-U.S. Rivalry

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Iraq remains an area of rivalry between the U.S. and Iran. The latest example was the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad by the U.S. in January. The Iraqi parliament then demanded the withdrawal of all foreign military troops. However, the fear of the resurgence of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) and continued protests against Iranian influence, ongoing since October 2019, may lead the Iraqi authorities to alter their position. An alternative option to request a NATO mission to take over some of the activities of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS may be a good solution.

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Prospects for a Revival of ISIS

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The terrorist group calling itself Islamic State (ISIS), after losing most of the territory it had overrun, has reformulated its strategy, basing it now on asymmetrical terrorist and insurgent operations. ISIS’s priority in Syria and Iraq is to use the destabilisation within these countries to free fighters and sympathisers from prisons and use them to create organised cells. The U.S. limiting troops in northern Syria and the escalating rivalry with Iran over Iraq is weakening the effectiveness of the international anti-terrorist coalition and facilitates the rebuilding of ISIS cells.

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Perspektywy odrodzenia tzw. Państwa Islamskiego

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): Polish

Tzw. Państwo Islamskie (PI) po utracie terytorium przeformułowało swoją strategię, której podstawą stały się działania asymetryczne – terrorystyczne i partyzanckie. Priorytetem PI w Syrii i Iraku jest wykorzystanie wewnętrznej destabilizacji tych państw, uwolnienie zwolenników organizacji i zasilenie przez nich jej komórek. Ograniczenie obecności wojsk USA w północnej Syrii oraz eskalacja rywalizacji między USA i Iranem na terenie Iraku osłabiają skuteczność działań międzynarodowej koalicji antyterrorystycznej oraz ułatwiają reorganizację struktur komórkom PI.

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Security Challenges in Relations between Poland and Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The collapse of the security system in Europe as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has particularly affected Belarus. The country fears the growing tensions between Russia and NATO that have been exacerbated, among others, by the termination of the INF regime and the strengthening of both the Alliance’s Eastern Flank and Russia’s Western Military District. Although Poland and Belarus have partly different security interests that pose a challenge in bilateral relations, the countries have the potential to cooperate in this sphere.

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Wyzwania bezpieczeństwa w relacjach Polski i Białorusi

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Załamanie się dotychczas funkcjonującego systemu bezpieczeństwa w Europie, spowodowane agresją Rosji na Ukrainę, w szczególny sposób dotknęło Białoruś. Państwo to obawia się rosnących napięć w relacjach rosyjsko-natowskich wynikających m.in. z upadku reżimu INF, wzmacniania wschodniej flanki Sojuszu i Zachodniego Okręgu Wojskowego FR. Choć częściowo odmienne interesy bezpieczeństwa stanowią wyzwanie w relacjach polsko-białoruskich, oba państwa mają potencjał współpracy w tej sferze.

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The Tactics and Strategic Consequences of the Attack on Oil Installations in Saudi Arabia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Cruise missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil installations suggest that Iran is implementing new tactics and a riskier strategy toward the U.S. and its regional allies. The attacks are the latest escalation of tensions by Iran, which are aims to show the failure of U.S. “maximum pressure” policy. The strikes revealed gaps in Gulf Arab countries’ defence systems and highlighted the vulnerability of oil exporters to different forms of attack. The Aramco attacks should be viewed in the context of Iran gradually over-stepping limits on its nuclear programme. The whole European Union (not just France, Germany and the UK) should take a tougher stance on consequences for Iran should it continue to escalate the situation.

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Taktyka oraz konsekwencje strategiczne ataku na instalacje naftowe Arabii Saudyjskiej

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Atak rakietami i dronami na saudyjskie instalacje naftowe sugeruje, że Iran przyjął nową taktykę i bardziej ryzykowną strategię wobec USA i ich regionalnych sojuszników. Jest to najnowszy element eskalacji przez Iran napięć, które mają wykazać fiasko polityki ,,maksymalnej presji” USA. Uderzenie wykazało luki w systemach obronnych arabskich państw Zatoki oraz podatność eksporterów ropy na różne formy ataków. Atak na Aramco, jednoczesny ze stopniowym łamaniem limitów programu nuklearnego, wymaga usztywnienia stanowiska całej UE (a nie tylko Francji, Niemiec i Wielkiej Brytanii) w sprawie konsekwencji eskalacyjnych działań Iranu.

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Afghanistan Ahead of the Next Turbulent Presidential Elections

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The U.S. cancellation of peace talks with the Taliban means that the presidential election in Afghanistan planned for 28 September will take place in an environment of an escalating civil war. The most important challenge for the authorities is to ensure the security and credibility of the electoral process. Although the elections carry the risk of deepening the internal political crisis, they can also strengthen the position of the new president in possible government negotiations with the Taliban, which would give the country a chance to launch an intra-Afghan peace process. Western partners can support this approach by confirming their support for the new authorities and intensifying military pressure on the Taliban.

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Afganistan przed wyborami prezydenckimi

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Zerwanie przez USA rozmów pokojowych z talibami oznacza, że planowane na 28 września wybory prezydenckie w Afganistanie odbędą się w warunkach eskalacji wojny domowej. Najważniejszym wyzwaniem dla władz jest zapewnienie bezpieczeństwa i wiarygodności procesu wyborczego. Choć wybory niosą ryzyko pogłębienia kryzysu wewnętrznego, mogą też doprowadzić do wzmocnienia pozycji nowego prezydenta w ewentualnych negocjacjach rządu z talibami. Taka sytuacja dawałaby szansę na uruchomienie wewnątrzafgańskiego procesu pokojowego. Zachodni partnerzy mogą wspomóc ten proces, potwierdzając wsparcie dla nowych władz i nasilając presję militarną na talibów.

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