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The Western Balkans: A Chance for the EU A Liberal Perspective on the Accession Process

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Taking a look at the map it is clear that the countries of the Western Balkans (in this paper Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) are a geopolitically crucial part of Europe that is still missing from the European Union. For political, economic and infrastructural reasons, as well as for the European identity that the Union shares with the Western Balkans, it is vital to reanimate the spirit of the accession process in the region and in the European member states. The EU accession process needs adaptations and improvements to provide more clarity, support and realistic perspectives for the aspiring members. The perspective of the Western Balkans states on the further development of the accession process is comparatively under-represented in the day-to-day debate on EU enlargement. Therefore, representatives of five liberal parties who are active in the above-mentioned states have compiled this short paper on their opinion on possible adjustments in the accession process speaking from their own experience as policy makers.

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Too green, too fast, too dear. The AfD is gaining popularity in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The popularity of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) is growing, as confirmed by its second place in the latest opinion polls, putting it on a par with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SDP, and that is raising great concern in Germany. The factors which have contributed to the AfD’s success include the public dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and the overlapping consequences of the Ukraine war and the inflation, climate and migration crises. The SPD-Green-FDP government coalition has presented different, often inconsistent approaches to these challenges. This has been coupled with Scholz’s deliberate passiveness as he shuns disputes inside the coalition in an attempt to improve his popularity ratings. This strategy has been successful up to a certain point, but is currently failing, and as a result the Chancellor is being blamed for the situation in the coalition. The AfD is benefitting from this, while also capitalizing on the fears most Germans share about the pace of the changes being implemented as part of the government’s climate policy. The party is also an advocate for voters who oppose the excessive influx of migrants to Germany and further support for Ukraine. Residents of the eastern federal states are particularly sensitive to these issues, where the AfD leads the polls with over 30%, and is viewed as a ‘catch-all’ or mass party, and not merely a fringe movement. This is particularly important given the upcoming elections to the parliaments of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia scheduled for autumn 2024, which will be the final electoral test before the Bundestag elections in 2025.

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Games between allies. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

The official visit by Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Moscow on 21–23 March was a demonstration of his country’s continued support for Russia in its conflict with the West. It also served as confirmation that Beijing and Moscow will continue to work for the revision of the international order, and therefore they regard each other as indispensable partners. The decisions on economic cooperation announced at the summit, and their intended results, point to a growing asymmetry in Sino-Russian economic relations. Economically, Russia is falling into a deep trade dependence on the PRC, its technology, and the use of the Chinese currency (RMB) for international settlements. Beijing is also showing growing ambitions to shape the security situation in the post-Soviet area, something previously reserved for Moscow.

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A tactical pause in relations with the West: China plays on hopes for peace

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In November 2022, China’s leader Xi Jinping embarked on a wide-ranging diplomatic campaign to prevent an uncontrolled breakdown of relations with the West, which should be considered a short-term success, at least in terms of reopening channels of communication with Western countries. This move has succeeded owing to Beijing’s instrumental use of the West’s hopes that it can secure China’s opposition to Russia’s possible use of weapons of mass destruction, and belief that China might be willing to mediate peace in Ukraine. The PRC’s actions have also met the expectations of its Western partners as they look for ways to stabilise relations with Beijing in the face of a looming global economic crisis. At present, we can say that the escalation has been halted, although the negative trend in China’s relations with the West –in particular with the United States – has not been reversed. Faced with economic and social challenges at home, the PRC will make further efforts to avoid economic confrontation with the West in the immediate future, by using more or less veiled suggestions of possible mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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Turkish dilemmas in the shadow of the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine forcefully evoked the question of Turkey’s international position and political strategy in its neighbourhood, but also in its relations with the West and Russia. In the first months of the aggression, Turkey reaffirmed its alignment with the West and its fear of Russian power and ambitions. The war also provided an opportunity for another attempt, not only to strengthen but also to redefine Turkish-Western relations – the lifting of sanctions imposed on Ankara and a stronger consideration of its security interests. Both the relative weakness of Russia, as revealed in the first period of the war, and the absence of the desired breakthrough in relations with the West have reinforced traditional and contentious tendencies in Turkish politics. The first is the desire to exploit Moscow’s weakness to deepen cooperation with it on better terms, which is reflected in the development of trade, including cooperation on the grain supply problems caused by the war. The second is aggressively manifesting Turkey’s interests in NATO. Included in this attitude is Ankara’s demand that some Alliance countries drop sanctions on the import of selected armaments by Turkey and adopt its counter-terrorism perspective, including on Kurdish groups affiliated to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and radical opposition organisations (including the Gülen Movement/FETO) that enjoy protection or support in the West. A demonstration of this policy was and still remains – despite the formal launch of the accession process by Sweden and Finland at the Madrid summit –Turkey’s continuing threat to block the enlargement of the Alliance by its national parliament.

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Tokayev’s Perestroika. Kazakhstan in the face of internal and external challenges

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

On 5 June Kazakhstan held a constitutional referendum. Almost 80% of the voters (on a turnout of 68%) supported the adoption of a package of amendments that covered more than a third of the articles of the Basic Law (a total of 56 amendments were introduced). The declared goal of these reforms is to move the country from a ‘super-presidential’ system to a presidential republic in which the dominant position of the head of state is curbed by a strong parliament. The aim is to improve the management of the country and, in the strategic perspective, to strengthen Kazakh statehood. The fact that a new constitution was not adopted, but the existing one was modified, indicates that despite the wide range of changes, the intention of its creator – President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev – is not to build a new system, but to try to rebuild the existing one – a form of ‘perestroika’.

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Terror, pacification, occupation Russia’s actions in the occupied territories of Ukraine

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has put the problem of how to manage the territories it has occupied onto the agenda. The first phase of the land operation did not lead to the capture of any significant areas, destroy the enemy’s army, force the Ukrainian government to flee Kyiv or suppress civil resistance, so it ended in failure – not only militarily, but also politically. The plans to force the inhabitants of the occupied territories into supporting the invaders and establish so-called ‘people’s republics’ there in order to further fragment the Ukrainian state have also ended in failure. The Kremlin, acting according to its modus operandi from 2014, has once again failed to take into account the changes in the attitudes of Ukrainian society, which does not see Russia as a civilizational alternative. Despite the risks associated with doing so, the locals have been protesting in large numbers, and cases of collaboration with the occupiers have been sporadic, which has made it impossible for the latter to exert their full and undisturbed control over the captured territories. And as the invaders see that their actions are ineffective, they take revenge on the civilians: they use terror and pacification, commit war crimes, and bring about humanitarian catastrophes in the occupied towns. The results of the operation so far show that its initial aim was to destroy the civilian population in the north, and to force the Ukrainians to cooperate in the south.

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NATO member states on arms deliveries to Ukraine

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymański,Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

The NATO member states do not have a common position concerning sending arms supplies to Ukraine. In January, under increasing military pressure from Russia, it was the US, the UK, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic and Poland which decided to deliver weapons and ammunition to Kyiv free of charge. Apart from being a political demonstration of solidarity, these supplies are intended to show to Russia that further military actions against Ukraine will incur increased costs. Moreover, these deliveries will strengthen Ukrainian ground forces if the Russian military operation in Donbass is expanded, but will not play a major role in the event of a full-scale invasion or missile attacks on Ukraine. Germany and some other member states are still rejecting arms supplies to Ukraine due to the fear of a further deterioration of the relations with Moscow.

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Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s official attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict (it has shown support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, including in the UN, and provided material aid), but it has also avoided any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests (no sanctions, its airspace remains open, etc.). Turkey has officially called for a political solution to the conflict (it initiated and hosted talks between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers on 10 March). This policy resembles Ankara’s traditional approach: nurturing and protecting its extensive political, economic and military relations with both Kyiv and Moscow, while balancing and playing off the West’s and Russia’s interests without formally breaking ties with either side. In the current situation, this attitude appears as an expression of Turkey’s alarmed stance at the prospect that the conflict between Russia and the West might escalate; that the Turkish economy could collapse; and above all, that the war might have disastrous results for Turkey’s security in the Middle East.

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Under the radar of big politics: cooperation between China and Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Chinese-Ukrainian relations are still defined by the events of 2014: the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Their consequences continue to block high-level political dialogue between Kyiv and Beijing, which Washington (and to a certain extent Moscow as well) also does not want. However, Sino-Ukrainian economic cooperation is expanding rapidly, with trade as its main driver. In 2019 the PRC became Ukraine’s most important trading partner due to the rapid rise in Ukrainian exports. Beijing itself is sceptical of Ukraine’s post-2014 political transition and its turn to the West, but it is interested in Ukraine’s military technologies, raw materials and agricultural potential. Since President Volodymyr Zelensky came to power, Ukraine has clearly been seeking a new opening in its relations with China, looking to widen the foreign policy space in the game between the West and Russia. However, it remains essentially excluded from financial and investment cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. Any significant deepening of relations between Kyiv and Beijing would first and foremost require a resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. However, the existing dynamic economic cooperation ‘under the radar’ of great-power politics still has considerable potential.

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Sputnik over Europe

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Since Sputnik V was registered in Russia in August 2020, a major global promotional campaign for the vaccine has been under way with the involvement of the state authorities, led by President Vladimir Putin. Recent weeks have seen the intensification of such a campaign in the European Union, which has been backed up by disinformation activities targeting Western vaccines. However, Sputnik V production levels have been low so far, and they do not meet the needs of either Russia or the countries that have signed up for it. Russian announcements that its production would soon begin outside the country, including in Europe, have also failed to come true. Available information shows that about a third of all Sputnik V doses delivered to the market are exported. However, an analysis of the contracts signed and the volume of deliveries made places Russia at the bottom of the global list of producers and suppliers. Like other manufacturers, it has to keep choosing who to send vaccines to first (and in what quantities). In effect, Europe and Latin America have been the priority destinations for shipments abroad, although even those contracts are not being fulfilled on time. Bulk quantities of Sputnik V are unlikely to arrive in Europe before autumn 2021.

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Wrestling in Greenland. Denmark, the United States and China in the land of ice

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

International interest in Greenland has been growing for several years. This trend is a result of the increasing global competition between the US, China and Russia (including in the Arctic)and the acceleration of climate change, which is opening the region up to commercial and military activity. The independence aspirations of the island’s inhabitants are also of note in this context. Copenhagen seeks to maintain sovereignty over Greenland because it strengthens Denmark’s significance in the world and provides access to the Arctic. The US has increased its visibility in Greenland due to Chinese investments, and has even considered buying it. For Beijing, the island represents a potential area of economic expansion, providing a valid argument for China to become a major player in the Arctic. This growing interest pleases Greenlanders, who see balancing between Denmark, the US and China as an opportunity for new investments and building the economic foundations of sovereignty.

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Belarusians on Poland, Russia and themselves. Analysis of a public opinion poll commissioned by the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Belarus is the only country in Europe where public opinion polls are not published on a regular basis. This is a result of repressive policy of the Belarusian government, which has effectively banned sociological research related to politically ‘sensitive’ topics such as political ratings. This means that little is known about the attitudes of the Belarusian people or their views on political issues. At the request of the OSW and on the basis of questions it prepared, Belarusian interviewers conducted a telephone survey between 26 November and 16 December 2020 with a representative sample of1000 respondents, the aim of which was to examine Belarusian opinions about selected countries, including Poland and Russia. It should be emphasised that no one has conducted a similarly comprehensive public survey for many months.

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The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance

Author(s): Mateusz Chudziak,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The Nagorno-Karabakh war of autumn 2020 and the military parade organized in Baku after its end, which was jointly hosted by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighted the potential of the alliance between both countries. The close ties between Baku and Ankara result from a strategic choice made almost three decades ago. The diverse activities they have undertaken to strengthen their cooperation have varied in intensity over that period, but their overall direction has remained unchanged. As a result, Azerbaijan has gradually distanced itself from Russia, and through its cooperation with Turkey, it has moved closer (albeit mainly economically) to the West. Ankara, on the other hand, has strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. This has led to the formation of an Ankara-Bakuaxis, which presents a challenge to Moscow because it limits Russian influence in the region. However, the Turkic duo has been taking care not to antagonize Russia directly; one expression of this approach is their acceptance of Moscow’s key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

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Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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A global arms control regime on short and medium-range missiles

Author(s): Matúš Halás / Language(s): English

A global alternative to the former INF Treaty is a feasible solution to the current crisis of the arms control regime that can significantly improve regional stability in Asia. It will not harm vital interests of its signatories provided it will not limit ground-launched delivery vehicles with a range greater than 3,000 km and existing TELs. Given the shifting security environment in Europe, the EU nations should join the German-led development and procurement of an integrated air and missile defence system. The deterrence dynamics also warrant a French-led joint European development and procurement of air-launched cruise missiles with a range greater than 2,000 km.

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How should Europe address Iran’s missile proliferation activities?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.

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The Abraham Accords: a game changer for the region and Europe’s role in it?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

The normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, that were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020, have the potential to strengthen economic integration while also fostering wider regional security partnerships. The deepening of regional ties could pave the way for broader cooperation propelling joint efforts in addressing issues such as energy security and climate change. The normalization agreements present new opportunities for cooperation not only for the region but also beyond it, including for the European Union. Yet the Abraham Accords are facing a number of challenges which could constrain the expansion of the normalization process. There is a disparity in how the political elites and the broader Arab public view the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, the new Israeli government led by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu includes several members that hold extreme positions on issues such as the Palestinian question and the status of holy sites in Jerusalem. The new government is liable to take actions that could heighten regional tensions and damage the normalization process. The Abraham Accords are popular in Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and other countries in the region have a unique opportunity to influence the new Netanyahu government and the wider Israeli public by linking progress on normalization to Israel stopping harmful policies that damage the long-term prospects of peace with the Palestinians. The EU has expressed measured support for the Abraham Accords, but it should actively encourage these states and potential new signatories to the accords to condition progress on Israel stopping counter-productive policies which could lead to a serious escalation in the region.

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Czech and Norwegian perspectives on resilience in a post-invasion-of-Ukraine context

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Eskil JAKOBSEN,Jan Daniel / Language(s): English

The resilience thinking in the Czech Republic and Norway has been significantly influenced by the membership of both countries in NATO; however, a closer inspection reveals some significant differences between them and opens a space for their mutual learning. Norway should pay attention to which aspects of national security resilience are strengthened by the membership in the EU as well as the longer debate on the resilience to disinformation in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic could learn from the Norwegian thinking about the coordination of civil and military efforts in addressing security and military threats.

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