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Following the military invasion by the forces of the Russian army launched on 24.02.2022 in Ukraine, at the level of its neighboring states and beyond, there was a massive influx of people displaced from this country, the groups of people being made up both from Ukrainian citizens and and from citizens of other states that, at the time of the invasion, were living in or transiting Ukraine. This aspect determined the creation of a mechanism for quick and appropriate measures both at European and national level to manage this phenomenon. At the European level, on 04.03.2023, the Council issued the Decision (EU) 2022/382 and activated the temporary protection provided by Directive 2001/55/EC regarding the minimum standards for granting temporary protection, in the event of a massive influx of displaced persons, and the measures to promote a balance between the efforts of the member states to welcome these people and bear the consequences of this reception, all displaced persons from Ukraine, who entered the territory of the EU after 24.02.2022, benefiting from this measure. At the national level, on 18.03.2022, it was issued the Government Decision no. 367 regarding the establishment of conditions for ensuring temporary protection as well as for the modification and completion of some normative acts in the field of foreigners, which regulated the granting of temporary protection on the territory of Romania. Temporary protection is an emergency mechanism that applies in the event of a massive influx of people and aims to provide immediate and collective protection. The aim is to ease pressure on national asylum systems and allow displaced people to enjoy harmonized rights across the European Union.
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The document presents a collection of speculative scenarios for world politics in 2012-2013, employing a scenario-building method to enrich foreign policy debate. It discusses the potential impacts of various global and regional developments on the Czech Republic and the EU, including fiscal pacts, the role of Germany in the Eurozone, Central European dynamics, EU relations with Turkey and China, the aftermath of American elections, the Iranian crisis, the situation in Afghanistan, the Asia-Pacific region, and Russian elections. The scenarios are not precise forecasts but internally consistent hypotheses that connect actors with future effects, aiming to capture key dynamics and possible consequences of otherwise conceivable actions.
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Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.
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