The Success of Business Failure Prediction Using Financial Creditworthy Models

Author(s): Michal Kuběnka / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Financial creditworthy models are popular for their simplicity and fast applications. Above all, quantitative evaluation of financial health guarantees an unbiased assessment of company. On the other hand, these models do not take into account the soft factors. Probably, the most famous Czech financial models known as creditworthy are Credibility Index, Rudolf Doucha´s Balance analysis, and Kralicek´s Q-test. They were created for the purpose of assessing the creditworthiness usually without using statistical methods. Can they be used for prediction of business failure despite this drawback? What is their success rate? Which of these classic financial models achieves the highest accuracy? To find answers a dataset of financial statements of 92 companies in manufacturing industry was analysed. These companies went bankrupt between 2010-2014.

Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: Suggestions for Further Research

Author(s): Tomáš Plíhal / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The market volatility plays an important role in the world of finance and it is essential part of risk management, asset management and valuation of derivatives. Several models for volatility forecasting exist. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for further research in forecasting exchange rate volatility. The first part describes essential information about market volatility and its importance. Analysis of commonly used methods for volatility forecasting follows along with a comparison of individual econometric models. Empirical literature, which measures predicting abilities of different models on the real data from the foreign exchange market, is also examined. According to our results, one of the best model for forecasting exchange rate volatility is simple GARCH(1,1) model. However, the latest empirical evidence highlights relatively new HAR-RV model which is able to provide even better results.

Algorithmic Trading Using Markov Chains: Comparing Empirical and Theoretical Yields

Author(s): Milan Svoboda,Pavla Říhová / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This study is focused on comparing empirical and theoretical yield of business strategies applied to stock markets. We continue in our previous articles in which we deal with the short-term prediction of stock markets and with creating business strategies using Markov Chains analysis. When defining a state space we assume that the stock price moves in three types of trends: primary, secondary and minor. The object of our interest is a minor trend which usually lasts for several days. During this trend the stock price accumulates a certain profit or loss in relation to the price at the beginning of the trend. The state space is defined by the size of the accumulated profit or loss. Business strategies are formed in the way that the states in which the stock price decreases generate buying signals and the states in which the stock price increases generate selling signals. Theoretical profitability of a business strategy is modeled on the basis of a matrix of transition between states probability, a matrix of evaluation of these transitions and the expected number of transactions. We calculate the parameters of this model, as well as empirical profitability, with historical data of CEZ stock during the ten years period from early 2006 to the end of 2015. In some cases empirical and theoretical results were nearly the same, in other cases they differed significantly.

Küresel Hareketlilik Çağında Göç Kuramları ve Temel Kavramlar

Author(s): Ibrahim Sirkeci,Filiz Goktuna Yaylaci / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

Göçün açıklanmasına dönük çabaların görece çok kısa bir zaman diliminde ortayaçıktığını söyleyebiliriz. 1876 ve 1889 arasında İngiliz İstatistikçi Ravenstein’ınKraliyet İstatistik Topluluğu dergisinde yayınladığı ve iç göçe odaklı göçünprensipleri makalesinden sonra 1950’lere dek ciddi bir katkı olmamış ondan sonra dadaha çok ekonomi ve kalkınma eksenli modeller öne çıkmıştır.

Stakeholder's Concerns into the Federal Registration and Procedure Centres in Switzerland

Author(s): Marwan Alkhouli,Rémi Baudoui / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper aims to explore the administrative and accommodation process of asylum seekers in Registration and Procedure Centres (CEP) of Swiss Confederation, which are managed by the State Secretary for Migrations (SEM). It is the result of an unprecedented survey we have conducted in two federal Centres. By interviewing the three main field actors, we highlight the interactions between SEM administrative staff, management and accommodation employees and asylum seekers who are received in the CEPs for a temporary period at the beginning of the asylum procedure. We will be confronted with the hypothesis that despite the integrated reception process in these centres, the implementation of the Sectoral Asylum Plan and the acceleration of asylum procedures, as well as the varied concerns and priorities of the main actors impact the development of future federal centres (CFA) and cannot satisfy all the requirements of asylum process stakeholders.

Several Causes and Sustainable Solutions of School Dropout in Romania

Author(s): Laura Monica Gorghiu,Roxana Constanța Enache,Ana-Maria Aurelia Petrescu,Gabriel Gorghiu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The school dropout phenomenon involves an extremely complex causality and - at the same time - represents a difficult and sensible problem faced by the contemporary society, not only in Romania, but also in the whole European area. Through this paper, we aim to identify the views of a sample of primary and secondary teachers concerning the causes of the school dropout in the Romanian school and the effectiveness of social and/or educational policies implemented so far. We also propose - following the investigative research - to identify and underline several sustainable solutions, in order to be applied in the context of the Romanian society and educational system, regarding the prevention and mitigation of this phenomenon. At macro level, it is important to increase the access to education, mostly in the case of disadvantaged students. At micro level, monitoring the students with big potential of school dropout and adopting of measures which limit this phenomenon seem to be crucial. In this format, just the primary and secondary teachers were questioned, but the research illustrated in this paper was carried out in order to justify and prepare a Grant dedicated to limit the university students drop-out, in the frame of the ROSE programme.

BÖLÜM I GÖÇ, EKONOMİ ve SOSYAL POLİTİKA - Türkiye’de Kadınların Göç Etme Sebeplerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi

Author(s): Sibel Selim,Yunus Purtaş / Language(s): Turkish Publication Year: 0

Tarih boyunca insanlar çeşitli nedenlerden dolayı sürekli göç etme eğilimindedir. Ülkeler ve insanlar bu göçten olumlu ya da olumsuz bir şekilde etkilenmektedir. İnsanların göç etmelerindeki temel neden onların daha rahat ve daha huzurlu bir yaşam sürmek istemeleridir. Ancak her zaman beklenen bu refah seviyesi gerçekleşmemektedir. İnsanlar bazen kendi istekleriyle bazen de zorunlu olarak göç etmek durumunda kalmışlardır. Bu duruma neden olan etmenler ise doğal, ekonomik, sosyal, dini ve siyasidir. Göçler bir kişi, bir grup ya da kitlesel olarak gerçekleşebilmektedir. Literatürde göçler; yerine, oluşumlarına ve niteliklerine göre farklı türlerde ifade edilmektedir. En basit anlamda göçler iç göç ve dış göç olmak üzere iki farklı türde ele alınmaktadır. Ancak bunların dışında zorunlu göç, gönüllü göç, uluslararası göç, kitlesel göç gibi farklı türleri de mevcuttur.

Participatory Practices in European Capitals of Culture

Author(s): Corina Turșie / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In the context of the growing interest of the European Capital of Culture programme in participation, meant to offer a sustainable legacy of the title, understood as community building, the paper discusses participatory practices applied by Timisoara 2021, starting from a theoretical typology of participation.

Transect urbanism and form-based codes

Author(s): Farah Nizam / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This presentation aims to provide an overview of the urban transect and the smart code approaches. It casts the light on the importance of this approach and its role in enhancing the urban life in general. Also, it presents some international examples applied in this field.

Process Management of Revitalisation Projects

Author(s): Agnieszka Goździewska-Nowicka / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Process of revitalisation is integrated and comprehensive vision and actions which lead to the resolution of urban problems and which seek to bring about a lasting improvement in the environmental, economic, physical and social conditions of an area that has been subject to change. Revitalisation should lead to the creation of new urban space and restores the unique character of old quarters and sites. Process of revitalisation has many different dimensions. In the social dimension the quality of life of the residents is intended to improve, while the economic goal of revitalisation is to initiate new impulses for the economic development and stimulate market mechanism.

Crna Gora i Evropska unija kroz percepcije i stavove njenih građana i građanki

Author(s): Daliborka Uljarević,Zlatko Vujović,Zoran Stoiljković / Language(s): Montenegrine Publication Year: 0

U okviru projekta «Evropa u mom gradu», sprovedeno je terensko istraživanje metodom «licem u lice» u devet crnogorskih opština, u periodu jul /avgust 2011, osim u opštinama Budva i Cetinje u kojima je to učinjeno u periodu avgust/septembar.

Nalazi fokus grupa u devet crnogorskih opština

Author(s): Boško Nenezić / Language(s): Montenegrine Publication Year: 0

Nakon sprovedenog terenskog istraživanja, organizovano je i devet fokus grupa - u Herceg Novom, Budvi, Ulcinju, Cetinju, Podgorici, Nikšiću, Kolašinu, Bijelom Polju i Pljevljima - radi dublje analize i provjere podataka dobijenih terenskim istraživanjem. Fokus diskusije trajale su, u prosjeku, od 1h do 2h, u prostorijama koje su za ovu priliku bile posebno iznajmljene, a vodio ih je moderator, koristeći se standardizovanim vodičem, uz uzimanje bilješki od strane asistenta.

Posljedice proširenja eu na zapadni balkan

Author(s): Jelica Minić / Language(s): Montenegrine Publication Year: 0

Naša tema su posljedice proširenja EU na zapadni Balkan, a djelimično ćemo obuhvatiti i politiku EU prema novim susjedima. Naime, nakon proširenja, EU je dobila nove susjede i ti susjedi nijesu nimalo beznačajni. Politika novog susjedstva obuhvata Ukrajinu, Moldaviju, Rusiju i Bjelorusiju, a u najnovijim programima proteže se i na mediteranske zemlje sjeverne Afrike, koje su pomorski susjed EU i prema kojima je do sada vođena ’mediteranska politika’. Zapravo, mi danas imamo jedan panevropski okvir razmišljanja o budućnosti EU i to je tema kojom ćemo se baviti.

Poglavlje 18: Statistika

Author(s): Vera Šćepanović / Language(s): Montenegrine Publication Year: 0

Samo pominjanje „statističke harmonizacije“ mnoge podsjeća na popularnu predrasudu o Evropskoj uniji kao birokratskoj mašini koja „premjerava krastavce“ i cjepidlači oko sličnih zanemarljivih detalja. U isto vrijeme, većina crnogorskih građana i građanki vjerovatno nije ni svjesna koliko malo pouzdanih podataka postoji čak i u najvažnijim strateškim oblastima za crnogorsku privredu, poput turizma, životne sredine ili energetike.

PRVA GODINA POBOLJŠANJA: MOŽE LI POSTATI TREND? PREZENTACIJA

Author(s): Marco Mantovanelli / Language(s): Bosnian Publication Year: 0

POTENCIJALI ZA REGIONALNU SARADNJU U PRIMJENI INOVATIVNIH METODA PLANIRANJA GRADOVA NA BAZI PARADIGME PLAVO ZELENI SAN (BLUE GREEN DREAM - BGD)

Author(s): Čedo Maksimović,Tarik Kupusović,Milenko Stanković / Language(s): Bosnian Publication Year: 0

BGD is a new paradigm for the planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance of urban water systems (blue component) and the green urban areas (green component - green infrastructure) as a synergy network, rather than as separate systems. It encourages effective solutions to improve the quality of urban life and adaptation to climate change. Innovative methodology in refreshing existing and planning new urban areas is developed and implemented by EIT (European Institute of Innovation and Technology), through its “climate” program KIC (Knowledge Innovative Communities), coordinated by the first author. The combined effects of climate change and increasing urbanization require skillful planning and remodeling of existing urban centers. BGD offers a way for the development, testing and implementation of solutions that connect science and innovation with broader development. The project opens many doors for regional and international cooperation, through a network of centers in Europe and the world, for the purpose of exchanging knowledge and experiences.

THE CITY OF SARAJEVO AS THE FOCAL POINT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPATIAL PLANNING

Author(s): Rahman Nurković / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper analyzes the city of Sarajevo as the focal point of the development of spatial planning. Thanks to its functions, the city of Sarajevo has, as often stressed, a focal significance in spatial planning. With the development of different branches of production activities, primarily industry and the production of handicrafts, cities organize the production of a variety of goods, not only within their borders but also in the wider surrounding area. A city is a specific form of human population whose size maintains the meaning of its functions in the area. In accordance with the socio-economic and other factors of development, the forms and dynamics of spatial planning of cities are different. In the city of Sarajevo, there are all the basic functions of human life (living in the community, working, supplying oneself, educating oneself, having leisure activities, and transport and communications) which affects the rapid changes in the appearance, structure and functions of spatial components. Based on the above facts, it can be seen that the area of influence of the city of Sarajevo can be differentiated into zones of varying degrees of socio-economic transformation and zones of functional connections with the city. This question is given a high priority in the world, as evidenced by the large number of scientific papers. In this paper, the attention will be devoted to the development as the focal point of regional planning of Sarajevo and its surroundings. Spatial planning is one of the most important contemporary features of the world. Space management makes it an essential element of rational and humane use of space and organization of vital functions, adjusting the planning with technical and technological development as a phenomenon of our times and the necessities of life of the population. Spatial planning is carried out on the basis of spatial and urban planning. This kind of spatial planning is the result of pronounced differences in development and lifestyle between cities and villages, hence there is the intense migration of population from rural areas to the city of Sarajevo. The increase in urban population ranges mostly within the dynamics of growth of the total population. The focus of spatial planning in terms of concentration of population, jobs and housing developments is moved to the edges and the suburban areas of Sarajevo. There also occur changes in the structure of population and degree of urbanization of Sarajevo from year to year. This primarily relates to the separation of urban settlements. It was therefore necessary to allocate these places according to the model which gives a more realistic picture of the number of urban settlements and the share of the urban population.

DAVANJE PREDNOSTI PRVOM GRADU: KOMPARATIVNA ANALIZA ODABRANIH ZEMALJA SEE REGIONA

Author(s): Marijana Galić,Jasmina Osmanković,Ensar Šehić / Language(s): Bosnian Publication Year: 0

This analysis is to explain the effects of urbanization processes that took place in 1990 in some countries of Southeast Europe. Namely, it is necessary to examine whether the position of capitals in emerging countries has changed in comparison to the time when these cities were the “first” cities - the largest cities and administrative centers of individual republics within Yugoslavia. The analysis will be conducted at several cross sections: 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1990, 2011 and 2013, depending on the availability of data. The analysis is done in a way that the population of the first and the second city is placed in relation to the population of each of the six former republics, ie. present time states. Results obtained by extrapolation of census results made in Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia in the period from 1953 to 1991, and the censuses done in 2003, 2011 and 2013, will be compared to empirical checks for some European cities and cities in developing countries (Todaro and Smith, 2006: 308), with the aim of establishing harmonization. For the purposes of this paper, analysis covered the issue of unemployment, or whether the observed cities faced the problem of urban unemployment.

ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE CITY OF KRAGUJEVAC

Author(s): Jasna Dimitrijević,Petar Veselinović / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Kragujevac economy is mainly based on metal-processing complex, and within it, the production of transport equipment and weapons. Loss of markets and cooperative relationship following the dissolution of the former SFRY in 1991 and the UN embargo in 1992, and the bombing of significant facilities in the business system “Zastava” in 1999, caused a negative impact on the socio-economic development of the city. In addition to the technological lag behind developed countries, the city was faced with the problem of unemployment, so that in June 2004 it was named one of 13 devastated areas in Serbia. After that, the city is making significant progress in economic development through the creation of a favourable business environment (adopted Local Economic Development Strategy 2007– 2012, based on modern standards and defined set of stimulus measures for investors in productive activities; infrastructure supplied to industrial zone, support for self-employment and other), which resulted in bringing significant companies (“Fiat”, “Sigit”, “HTL”, “Promo Magnieti”, “Johnson Controls”, “TPV”, “Metro”, “Mercator”, “Idea”, “DIS”, “Plaza”, “Supernova”, “TUŠ” and others) and promoting economic activity in the city. The creation of the joint venture “Fiat Automobiles Serbia” created the opportunity, together with local cooperation, to gradually start the engine of development, not only of the city but of the whole of Serbia. These results influenced the fact that in 2007, before the arrival of “Fiat”, Kragujevac gained recognition of Club of Business Journalists: “City of the Future” Silver Cup. In 2008 the city was awarded the Golden Cup “City of the Future” and certification as a city with a favourable business environment, which was awarded by the National Alliance for Local Economic Development (NALED) and the Ministry of Economy and Regional Development. Important economic development objectives of the city of Kragujevac include the following: infrastructure improvements; economic development and entrepreneurship; environment; rural development; improvement of health and social care; promotion of education and culture; development of sport and tourism.

Education for the future in a European perspective

Author(s): Dan Roger Sträng / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Every nation has its own distinctive character. Sometimes we take the complexity of explaining and understanding the characteristics of other nations and ethnic groups too lightly. Knowledge and competence equalize differences between groups and increase young people’s opportunities to choose career and achieve quality of life (Giota, 2014). Without knowledge, we find it harder to relate to the world around us, and our positions on various issues may appear vague and ambiguous. Categorizations and preconceptions lead to prejudice and widening gaps between people. One way to define equality is people’s right to education.