The Rubik Cube of the Wider Middle East

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

Given the complexity and severity of the problems involved, this book asserts that a comprehensive regional initiative for the Wider Middle East is called for and proceeds to outline exactly what that would entail. The first-best solution would be the adoption of a convergent strategy towards the Wider Middle East by the EU and US together. The authors argue that a US policy that waged a unilateral war against Iraq and left the Israeli-Arab conflict still festering would mean counterproductive effects for the fight against Al Qaeda and huge damage to Western-Islamic relations as well as to the transatlantic alliance. At the same time, however, the EU must be prepared to strengthen both the ‘carrots’ and the ‘sticks’ in its policies in the region in any case. The point of the image of Rubik’s Cube is to stress the need for a coherent vision for all three regions of the Wider Middle East (Maghreb, Mashreq and the Gulf), for all three major vectors of policy (politics, economics and security), and for all three major external participants (the US, Europe and the international organisations).

Readings in European Security. Volume 3

Author(s): / Language(s): English,French

This volume of Readings in European Security contains the papers commissioned for presentation and discussion at the meetings of the CEPS-IISS European Security Forum (ESF) in the period from January 2003 to June 2005. They have been previously published in the European Security Forum Working Paper series, Nos. 16-20. CEPS and IISS gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum from the Compagnia di San Paolo, the US Mission to the EU and NATO.

WPŁYW POLITYKI LOKALNEJ NA WARUNKI I JAKOŚĆ ŻYCIA. PRZYKŁAD STREFY SUBURBANIZACJI TRÓJMIASTA

Author(s): Grzegorz Masik / Language(s): Polish

Książka, którą Czytelnik trzyma w ręku, wprowadza w teoretyczne zagadnienia badań nad polityką lokalną oraz jakością życia. Praca koncentruje się na analizie kompetencji samorządu gminy w podstawowych obszarach polityki społecznej, gospodarczej i przestrzennej, dzięki czemu stanowi kompendium wiedzy na temat uwarunkowań prawno-organizacyjnych prowadzenia polityki lokalnej. Autor weryfikuje decyzje podejmowane w siedmiu gminach strefy podmiejskiej, wskazując sposoby badania polityki lokalnej oraz przedstawia nowe możliwości analiz w ramach geograficznych systemów informacyjnych (GIS).Analityczno-empiryczna część pracy powstała przy wykorzystaniu ilościowych oraz jakościowych metod badawczych. Zebrane podczas badań materiały i ich wielowymiarowa analiza statystyczna oraz interpretacja jakościowa pozwoliły na identyfikację określonych typów polityk lokalnych właściwych dla badanej strefy podmiejskiej. Wyniki badań sondażowych przeprowadzonych na próbie ponad tysiąca respondentów umożliwiły określenie zadowolenia mieszkańców z działań podejmowanych przez samorządy lokalne. Wnikliwa i bogata w materiał badawczo-dokumentacyjny analiza dała podstawę do oceny jakości życia mieszkańców urbanizującej się strefy podmiejskiej oraz prowadzonej polityki lokalnej w kontekście koncepcji ładu przestrzeni publicznej.Dr inż. Grzegorz Masik jest adiunktem w Katedrze Geografii Ekonomicznej Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego. Ukończył studia magisterskie na kierunku geografia oraz inżynierskie o specjalności geodezja i systemy informacji przestrzennej. Zajmuje się przede wszystkim zagadnieniami dotyczącymi planowania przestrzennego, jakości życia, polityki lokalnej oraz percepcji przestrzeni publicznej. W kręgu jego zainteresowań znajduje się również zastosowanie geograficznych systemów informacyjnych w badaniach społeczno-ekonomicznych. W 2009 roku obronił rozprawę doktorską, za którą otrzymał nagrodę Gdańskiego Towarzystwa Naukowego i Prezydenta Miasta Gdańska. Praca ta stała się podstawą tej książki.

Eastern enlargement and the future of the EU27: EU foreign policy in a global world

Author(s): Attila Ágh / Language(s): English

In the early 21st century there have been basic changes in global politics generated by the global democratizations that has demonstrated at the same time the diverging EU and US foreign policies. In the 21st century the EU has appeared as a global actor with its particular profile of a civilian superpower and acted through transformative linkage politics. It means that the EU advocates not only the fusion of international relations and domestic policy as linkage politics but gives a special transformation profile to it in the form of binding conditionalities for both sides. Transformative linkage politics or - with the usual term - the enlargement policy of the EU has been one of the most influential policies that has shaped the global world and it has been the major stake and bone of contention in the global rivalry between the EU and US. The most recent result of this new policy instrument is the Eastern enlargement. EU elaborated for the Eastern enlargement “a unique model of democracy promotion through integration (…) with a particular combination of hard conditionality and soft measures” (Dimitrova and Pridham, 2004: 91). The Eastern enlargement has made the EU to a real global player. It has been a great success, which can revitalize the EU that has been suffering from a transitory identity crisis. After the Eastern enlargement the EU25 has organized a special zone as the partnership ring of Eastern and Southern neighbours, so in the nextdecades the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) will be one of the main directions in the European Foreign Policy (EFP). It has caused, again, some problems by testing the EU absorption capacity but the ENP has accelerated the dynamism of the EU’s doctrine on the effective multilateralism.

Europeanization of the Danube Region: The Blue Ribbon Project

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Blue Ribbon Project, namely the establishment of a functional macro region along the river Danube is an attractive experiment. This EU generated initiative was born in 2009 in the upper Danube city of Ulm and since then a wide range of stakeholders signed up for it. Parallel to this, research centres, think thanks, governmental and intergovernmental actors have been participating in the debate and discourse on it. The Blue Ribbon Research Centre (BRRC), established in 2009 at the King Sigismund College, Budapest and supported by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) within the framework of the No. 81553 Research Project, defines itself as part of the academic network dedicated to contribute to this new project in Europe by furnishing analyses, findings and recommendations. The multi level governance theories (MLG ) provide the overall theoretical framework for analysing and understanding the emerging macroregions. The research conducted by the BRRC aims to explore the various forms of MLG and identify and conceptualise the main challenges facing European macro-regions.

DOKĄD SIĘGAJĄ GRANICE ZACHODU? Rosyjsko-polskie konflikty strategiczne 1990–2010

Author(s): Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz / Language(s): English

From a historical perspective, the last two decades can almost be regarded as a 'golden age' of Polish-Russian relations. This is the first time in several centuries that a sovereign Poland and Russia have been able to develop mutual relations without resorting to force; moreover, they have established a bilateral legal basis and put into practice its provisions on "the inviolability of borders, territorial integrity, non-interference with internal affairs and the nations' right to self-determination.This does not change the fact that since 1990 the atmosphere between the two countries has much more often been chilly and tense. Contrary to the widely-held belief, Polish-Russian conflicts do not stem from genetic Russophobia on the part of Poland, or irrational prejudice on the part of Russia. Their substance is real and concerns strategic issues. At the deepest level, though, this is a dispute about how far the borders of the Western world extend, and about the Russian Federation's sphere of influence. However, it is not a clash between two states; moreover, Poland is certainly not the most important actor in this regard, although due to the historical context and its geographic location, it is one of the countries that lies closest to the 'line of contact', and is therefore particularly entangled in the disagreement.

The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The Ukrainian oligarchic system, which developed into its ultimate shape during Leonid Kuchma’s second presidency, turned out to be very durable. The nature of close relations between the government and the oligarchs has not undergone any major changes either as a consequence of the Orange Revolution or following Victor Yanukovych’s victory in the presidential election of 2010. Although reshuffles have taken place inside the political and business elites, nothing seems to be able to change this system, at least in the medium term.This text is aimed at presenting the network of connections existing between big business and politics in Ukraine and at pointing to the key oligarchic groups and the political forces they support. A definite majority of papers concerning contemporary Ukrainian politics as a rule disregard or deal with this subject very superficially, while it is impossible to understand modern Ukraine without understanding a number of dependencies existing between the political and business elites there.

Closing the gap? Military co-operation from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea

Author(s): Tomasz Dąborowski,Mateusz Gniazdowski,Justyna Gotkowska,Jakub Groszkowski,Andrzej Sadecki,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

The contracting defence budgets in Europe, the difficulties in developing the EU’s security policy, NATO's transformation, the reorientation of US security policy and the problems experienced by European defence industries – all together have in recent years created an increased interest in political, military and military-technological co-operation in Europe.It has manifested itself in concepts of closer co-operation within NATO and the EU (smart defence and pooling&sharing), bilateral and multilateral initiatives outside the structures of NATO and the EU (such as the Nordic Defence Co-operation or the Franco-British co-operation) and debates about the prerequisites, principles and objectives of bilateral, multilateral and regional security and defence co-operation. // The present report aims to analyse the potential for security and defence co-operation among selected countries in the area between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, i.e. the Nordic states (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden), the Baltic states (Lithuania Latvia and Estonia), Poland's partners in the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) as well as Romania and Bulgaria. The authors were guided by the assumption that those states are Poland's natural partners for closer regional military co-operation. It may complement ‘the Western’ direction of Poland's security and defence policy, i.e. relations with the partners from the Weimar Triangle and the US. Its goal is not to replace the existing security structures but rather to strengthen military capabilities in the region within NATO and the EU.

Coraz dalej od Moskwy. Rosja wobec Azji Centralnej

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): Polish

Kraje poradzieckiej Azji Centralnej są dla Moskwy istotne jako potencjalne źródło zagrożeń, jako obszar jej relacji z Chinami, Zachodem i światem islamu, wreszcie jako przestrzeń objęta rosyjskimi inicjatywami integracyjnymi. Po rozpadzie ZSRR rosyjskie wpływy w tym regionie uległy daleko idącej erozji. Podjęcie przez Kreml konsekwentnych działań na rzecz budowy Unii Eurazjatyckiej, a także groźba destabilizacji regionu po zakończeniu w 2014 roku operacji ISAF w Afganistanie, przyhamowały ten proces, choć jego odwrócenie nie wydaje się realne. Obecny „stan posiadania” (instrumenty i aktywa, jakimi dysponuje Rosja) zapewnia jeszcze Moskwie minimalny poziom kontroli nad regionem, czemu sprzyja ograniczona aktywność innych światowych graczy. Sytuacja może ulec zmianie wraz ze wzrostem ich ambicji, zwłaszcza z ewentualnym zaangażowaniem Chin w obszarze „twardego” bezpieczeństwa.

W cieniu historii. Stosunki rumuńsko-mołdawskie

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): Polish

Rumunię i Mołdawię łączą bardzo silne więzy wynikające przede wszystkim z wielu lat wspólnej historii (w tym wspólnej państwowości), języka oraz dorobku kulturowego. Ta bliskość z jednej strony sprzyja budowaniu stosunków dwustronnych, z drugiej zaś stanowi dla nich także poważne obciążenie. Mołdawska państwowość oraz tożsamość budowana jest bowiem niejako w opozycji do państwowości i tożsamości rumuńskiej. Część społeczeństwa (szczególnie mniejszość rosyjskojęzyczna) obawia się bliższej współpracy z Bukaresztem, widząc w niej zagrożenie utratą niepodległości i zapowiedź zjednoczenia z zachodnim sąsiadem. Historyczny sentyment znajduje także odbicie w polityce Bukaresztu wobec Mołdawii. Oficjalnie stosunki z Kiszyniowem uważane są za szczególne, a przedstawiciele rumuńskiej klasy politycznej prześcigają się w deklaracjach pomocy i poparcia dla wschodniego sąsiada, odwołując się przy tym do wspólnoty narodowej, kulturowej i językowej. W praktyce jednak polityka Rumunii wobec Mołdawii (a co za tym idzie, także wzajemne stosunki) kształtowana jest najczęściej nie przez sentymenty, lecz przez polityczny pragmatyzm wynikający m.in. z chęci zdobycia poparcia rumuńskiego elektoratu.

№ 08 A GLOBAL FORCE FOR HUMAN RIGHTS? AN AUDIT OF EUROPEAN POWER AT THE UN

Author(s): Richard Gowan,Franziska Brantner / Language(s): English

The European Union (EU) is suffering a slow-motion crisis at the United Nations (UN). The problem is not a lack of internal cohesion, which has improved markedly since the nadir of the Iraq War. The problem is fading power to set the rules of the game. The EU’s members insist that the UN is central to their vision of international order and universal human rights – but the UN is increasingly being shaped by China, Russia and their allies. This paradox has come to the fore in 2008 as the EU has tried to work through the UN on Burma and Zimbabwe, yet been unable to get Security Council resolutions for action. These defeats come on top of previous setbacks for the EU at the UN in cases from Kosovo to Darfur. This is partially due to geopolitical shifts. But this report shows that the EU has also been the architect of its own misfortune. Europe has lost ground because of a reluctance to use its leverage, and a tendency to look inwards – with 1,000 coordination meetings in New York alone each year – rather than talk to others. It is also weakened by a failure to address flaws in its reputation as a leader on human rights and multilateralism. If Europe can no longer win support at the UN for international action on human rights and justice, overriding national sovereignty in extreme cases, it will have been defeated over one of its deepest convictions about international politics as a whole. This is particularly true in cases involving the Responsibility to Protect against genocide and mass atrocities, when the humanitarian consequences of inaction are most severe.

№ 12 A POWER AUDIT OF EU-CHINA RELATIONS

Author(s): John Fox,François Godement / Language(s): English

Europe’s approach to China is stuck in the past. China is now a global power: decisions taken in Beijing are central to virtually all the EU’s pressing global concerns, whether climate change, nuclear proliferation, or rebuilding economic stability. China’s tightly controlled economic and industrial policies strongly affect the EU’s economic wellbeing. China’s policies in Africa are transforming parts of a neighbouring continent whose development is important to Europe. Yet the EU continues to treat China as the emerging power it used to be, rather than the global force it has become. A “power audit” we have conducted shows that the 27 EU Member States are split over two main issues: how to manage China’s impact on the European economy and how to engage China politically. We assigned scores to Member States’ individual policies and actions towards China, and the chart overleaf translates this evaluation on to a horizontal axis for politics and a vertical axis for economics.

The EU Strategy for the Danube Region. The implications for Poland and the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Mateusz Gniazdowski,Tomáš Strážay / Language(s): English

The Danube strategy is the second example, after the Baltic Sea strategy, of the growing importance of macro-regions in the EU. The regional policy is being more and more often looked at through the prism of not only ensuring internal cohesion but also promoting better connection for a country with its external – both EU and non-EU environment. Poland is a Baltic Sea strategy contributor, but has not been incorporated into the inner circle of states preparing the Danube strategy. The challenge for the Visegrad Group is to define a position on the role of macro-regional strategies in building the cohesion of Central Europe and the harmonic development of the whole EU. Demands for a better co-ordination of EU policies and funds in order to pursue macro-regional strategies should also be treated as a call for closer co-operation between Poland and its southern neighbours who are directly involved in the Danube strategy.

The Fourth Annual Conference of the National Defence College Romania in the New International Security Dynamics

Author(s): / Language(s): English

new national security agenda. Our conference focuses on shaping security by identifying three layers of building national resilience: (1) promoting security, (2) cultivating strategic leadership and (3) prospecting the future of security. Therefore, the conference holds three sections. The first section is named Security – between challenges and opportunities and opens these proceedings. The section starts from a symbolistic approach, as Brexit is debated in 2019 – the year when the British University of Aberystwyth celebrates 100 years since creating the first department of International Relations in the world. The magnitude of the centennial celebration of International Relation becomes somehow a robust occasion for resetting the timer in International Relation theory and Security Studies. We encouraged authors to analyze the theoretical changes in the domain, but also the challenges and case studies of an international, regional and national practice of security. Papers referring to Romania’s position in regional and international relations and papers referring to national security sector reform were also encouraged. The second chapter of the conference holds the title Good governance and strategic leadership: thinking, acting and influencing in international politics. The section had as a central idea the good governance as a way of building a more accurate and performant crises management and security system. We encouraged authors also to analyze how acting and influencing in national security is possible. Papers analyzing training and mentorship cases from public authorities were also welcomed. The third section is named The future of international security dynamics: prospects and results. The section starts from the assumption that it’s hard to say what the future will look alike. But one thing is certain, that we should prepare for its effects. This is why some organizations have refined fresh methodologies for prospecting the future, by identifying Weak Signals or Wild Cards. Others just stick to the facts, by building resilience through a complex scenario development process. We encouraged authors to analyze the future of European security and to search for possible scenarios for current conflicts and crises. Papers analyzing the theoretical foundation of prognosis, foresight and strategic planning were also welcomed.

Wielka Brytania i Wspólnota u progu XXI wieku. Przeszłość, teraźniejszość, perspektywy

Author(s): / Language(s): English,Polish

Oblicza współczesnej propagandy. Przypadek chińsko-tajwańskiej wojny informacyjnej

Author(s): Robert Rajczyk / Language(s): Polish

The book „Contemporary propaganda. The case of the Chinese-Taiwan information war” depicts the oldest propaganda conflict in the world. The first three chapters of the monograph relate to the theory of propaganda in international communication. The next ones review the role of mass as well as social media in creating contemporary propaganda narratives. In the fourth chapter, Taiwan’s propaganda activities are analyzed, taking into account the specific situation of this non-recognized state. The last chapter consists of the analysis of the propaganda activities of the People’s Republic of China in relation to the Taiwanese issue. The research on the narratives and propaganda actions of both countries presents their strategic goals, directions, and adapted methods and techniques. The particular attention was focused on the role of traditional media as well as on the new media. The analysis shows that while the propaganda strategies and actions of both countries are determined by the changing political and economic conditions of both entities, they are also mutually dependent. The Taiwan’s propaganda aim is to create its own image as the „only one Chinese democracy” and to develop favourable economic and cultural relations. On the other hand, continental China promotes the idea of one China (one China policy), and the propaganda activities are focused on strengthening the country’s political and economic position in the world. The future of Taiwanese propaganda will be shaped primarily on the basis of new media focused on the important role of the e-image of the state and the intensive protection of its own information sphere. The future of Chinese propaganda will be related to the development of the international broadcasting of information programmes by the state-financed television stations having a global reach, and the expansion of state-supported Chinese private capital to dominate ownership in media organizations that operate in the media markets within the areas of the political and economic interests of the People’s Republic of China.

The People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation as Strategic Allies

Author(s): Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova / Language(s): English

China’s foreign relations are known for their reliance on the ‘friendship’ narrative, and its relations with Russia have been no exception. Still, the Sino-Russian ties lay beyond what could be considered diplomacy-as-usual from the Chinese perspective. Official documents make reference to “the tradition of friendship between the peoples of Russia and China, passed down from generation to generation”. The history of interactions, however, suggests otherwise, as both nations were effectively cut off from each other from late 1950 and until 1989, and mutual enmity peaked during the 1969 border conflict on the Ussuri river. [...]

Arctic Narratives and Political Values: Arctic States, China and NATO

Author(s): Iona Allan,Elizabete Auniņa / Language(s): English

Over the last five years, mainstream political interest and global media attention towards the Arctic region has grown rapidly, from alarmist headlines declaring a ‘global battle for the Arctic’ and the beginning of a new ‘Cold War’ to more bleak warnings about the irreversible environmental changes taking place above the Arctic Circle. From an economic and resource perspective, the Arctic has also taken on a truly global significance in recent years. With almost 30% of the world’s undiscovered remaining natural gas supply and 13% of undiscovered oil located under the Northern Polar ice, many countries, both within and outside the region, are now looking towards the Arctic as a region of great untapped economic potential. After the record-breaking summer ice melts of 2007 and 2012, previously impassable stretches of Arctic waters became ice-free and navigable for the first time, allowing oil companies to send drilling ships northward and begin the first phases of oil and gas extraction.

Wyzwania polityki rozwoju regionalnego w Chinach. Formułowanie-implementacja-adaptacja

Author(s): Marek Świstak / Language(s): Polish

Chiny inspirują do miana państwa o największej gospodarce i potencjale rozwojowym, co wymaga wykształcenia i ciągłego podtrzymywania zdolności modernizacyjnych w wymiarze gospodarczym, społecznym, politycznym czy technologicznym. Zamiar ten może okazać się próżny, jeżeli nadal w Chinach obecne będą tak znaczące dysproporcje rozwojowe jak dotychczas, także w układzie regionalnym. Polityka rozwoju regionalnego stanowi specyficzny przykład koegzystencji interwencji publicznej i wykorzystania mechanizmów rynkowych. Powyższemu towarzyszą polityczna centralizacja i gospodarcza decentralizacja.We wdrażaniu polityki rozwoju regionalnego Chiny podążają drogą inwestycji, które w założeniu mają budować konkurencyjność słabiej rozwiniętych regionów. Strategia ta przyczyniła się do niebywałej rozbudowy infrastruktury, wciąż jednak bez przełożenia na sukces w zakresie spójności. Dysproporcje nadal stanowią wyzwanie nie tyle dla autorytarnego systemu sprawowania władzy, ile dla rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego kraju jako całości.

Режим Путіна: перезавантаження-2018

Author(s): Maxim Rozumniy / Language(s): Ukrainian

The current state of domestic and foreign policy of the Russian Federation is considered. The resources that can be used to keep the current leadership of the Russian Federation in power, the main trends of socio-economic and domestic life of Russia, its foreign policy are analyzed in respect of its political interests and means of achieving geopolitical goals. The main scenarios for the Kremlin's policy of restoring imperial status, including the reintegration of the post-Soviet space, confrontation with the West, and Russia's expansion in strategically important regions of the world, have been identified. The publication was prepared by the Center for Research of Problems of the Russian Federation of the National Institute for Strategic Studies.