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Treść i skutki ostatecznego porozumienia nuklearnego P5+1 z Iranem

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Podpisana niedawno umowa mocarstw (P5+1) z Iranem zakłada bezprecedensowe ograniczenie skali i kontrolę potencjału nuklearnego tego kraju. Konsekwentna jej realizacja zmniejszy ryzyko budowy arsenału atomowego Iranu przez co najmniej 10–15 lat. Porozumienie jest rezultatem kompromisu USA w sprawie znoszenia sankcji w zamian za zamrożenie i redukcję wszystkich elementów irańskiego programu. Ze względu na swój techniczny charakter nie gwarantuje ono jednak podjęcia przez Teheran decyzji o reformach wewnętrznych, liberalizacji gospodarki lub zmianie polityki regionalnej. Nie dotyczy też programu rakietowego Iranu, co oznacza potrzebę dalszej realizacji planów obrony przeciwrakietowej USA i NATO, w tym instalacji w Redzikowie.

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Will Equals Way: Unconventional Gas in Russia

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Sonia Boczek / Language(s): English

Although the present conjuncture is not conducive to investments in the still locally unproven and expensive methods of obtaining energy resources, Russia is developing its unconventional gas industry more and more boldly. However, catching up on the significant technological lag in comparison to other countries is not Russia’s only goal. The change in Moscow’s strategy is essential if the country is to maintain a strong leadership position among gas producers, as well as for the attainment of Russia’s geopolitical aspirations. Russia’s room for manoeuvre is limited to three options, which, while running in parallel, could each have different international ramifications.

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Chcieć to móc: gaz niekonwencjonalny w Rosji

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Sonia Boczek / Language(s): Polish

Choć koniunktura nie sprzyja inwestycjom w drogie metody pozyskiwania surowców energetycznych, Rosja coraz śmielej rozwija przemysł gazu niekonwencjonalnego. Jej celem nie jest jedynie nadrobienie istotnych zapóźnień technologicznych w stosunku do innych krajów. Zmiana strategii jest niezbędna dla utrzymania mocnej pozycji lidera wśród producentów gazu, jak również dla spełnienia rosyjskich aspiracji geopolitycznych. Aby to osiągnąć, Rosja może zastosować trzy sposoby: samodzielną realizację projektów na małą skalę, poszukiwanie partnerów na Wschodzie oraz strategiczny wybór kierunków dalszego rozwoju przemysłu gazu niekonwencjonalnego.

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Unused Potential of an EU–LAC Partnership

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

On 10–11 June 2015, the EU–Latin American and Caribbean States summit will be held in Brussels. It will be an occasion to enliven the bi-regional dialogue that due to the eurozone crisis and the growing presence of China in the Americas, among other reasons, has been latent of late. Poland and the rest of the EU have a chance to strengthen cooperation with this region. The first steps toward this goal should be to complete negotiations of the EU–Cuba Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement and to sign new trade agreements (with Mercosur) and update existing ones (with Chile and Mexico).

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Niewykorzystany potencjał współpracy UE z Ameryką Łacińską i Karaibami

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 10–11 czerwca w Brukseli odbędzie się szczyt Unia Europejska–Ameryka Łacińska i Karaiby. Dla państw UE, w tym Polski, będzie on okazją do ożywienia wzajemnych relacji, które osłabiły się m.in. ze względu na kryzys w strefie euro oraz silne zaangażowanie Chin w regionie. Pierwszym krokiem w tymi kierunku powinno być doprowadzenie do zakończenia negocjacji o dialogu politycznym i współpracy z Kubą, a także podpisanie nowych umów handlowych (z Mercosurem) oraz aktualizacja istniejących (z Chile i Meksykiem).

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A System of Unconnected Vessels: The Gas Market in the Baltic States

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

An internally integrated gas market that is independent from Russia is a permanent element of the Baltic States’ energy policies. This goal in the regional dimension was to be achieved by the launch of an LNG terminal in Klaipeda, Lithuania, at the end of 2014. However, Latvia rejects the opportunity to import gas from Lithuania, and Estonia would benefit only slightly. Instead, to cooperate effectively, including in the implementation of joint infrastructure projects, all three act individually. This hinders the creation of a regional market and the EU should actively resist it.

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System naczyń niepołączonych – rynek gazu w państwach bałtyckich

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): Polish

Dążenie do budowy zintegrowanego i niezależnego od Rosji rynku gazu jest trwałym elementem polityki energetycznej państw bałtyckich. W wymiarze regionalnym miał się do tego przyczynić terminal LNG w Kłajpedzie, uruchomiony pod koniec 2014 r. Jednak Łotwa odrzuca możliwość importowania gazu z Litwy, a Estonia skorzysta na tym tylko w niewielkim stopniu. Zamiast współpracy, w tym realizacji wspólnych projektów infrastrukturalnych, kraje bałtyckie decydują się na indywidualne działania. Utrudnia to tworzenie regionalnego rynku, czemu powinna aktywnie przeciwdziałać UE.

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The undeclared war. A new phase of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

More than two years after the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, the situation in the conflict area remains highly unstable. Despite declarations of a de facto solution to the problem, intensive peace talks and Armenia signalling significant concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the region is once again becoming a flashpoint, as manifested by Azerbaijan’s blockade of it since December. In the process, the conflict has escalated to an open dispute between the two states. Azerbaijan has been provoking Armenia with military attacks along the line of the non-delimited state border (along which there was fierce fighting last September), and suggesting it might forcibly take over transportation routes (the so-called Zangezur corridor) on its neighbour’s territory.

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Moldova Faces Down an Energy Crisis and Protests

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Western support has helped Moldova through a deep energy crisis. The crisis, manufactured by Russia by limiting gas supplies in winter, violating a contract, is part of an attempt to persuade the Moldovan public to join protests organised by the pro-Russian Şor Party. It is in Poland’s interests to ensure further support from the European Union for Moldova, as it would align with Moldovans' determination for a pro-European transformation.

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An anti-colonial alliance with the Global South. The new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

On 31 March, President Vladimir Putin signed the new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’. This is the fifth version of the document adopted by the Russian Federation, and the fourth under his rule (the previous ones were adopted in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016). The current edition is primarily of significance as propaganda. Its main purpose is to present Moscow’s conflict with the West as a defence against Western policies, which allegedly pose an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The document depicts Russia as the defender of the non-Western world against Western hegemony and neo-colonialism. The document also reflects a reorientation of Russia’s foreign policy towards its non-Western partners (primarily China, India, the ‘Islamic world’ and the Asia-Pacific region) at the expense of frozen or hostile relations with the transatlantic community, especially the United States.

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Examining Changes in Regional Cooperation in Central Europe from a Polish Perspective

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

The Visegrad Group (V4), until recently the most active and multidimensional cooperation platform in Central Europe, does not serve currently to strengthen the voice of the region on the most essential issues concerning its security. This is because Hungary’s stance on Russia’s attack on Ukraine is different than that of its partners. That is why Poland is tightening relations with the other Visegrad countries - Czechia and Slovakia. At the same time, Poland is also intensifying cooperation with the Baltic states, which has its source in joint actions on security and eastern affairs in the years preceding the war.

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A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The German economy is heavily dependent on natural gas, almost all of which it purchases from foreign suppliers. More than half of this is from Russia. For years, Germany underestimated the dangerous degree of its gas dependence on Russia because it was convinced that the two countries had common interests. The absence of the adequate diversification of supply sources has proven to be a mistake in Berlin’s energy policy. Stoked by Moscow, the European gas crisis has affected Germany and other countries. Combined with the threat of renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine, it made Germany increasingly aware of the scale of this dependence. Although the country’s energy cooperation with Russia will not change fundamentally in the short term, it is now more likely that Germany will take real action to reduce its vulnerability to similar crises in the future. Although it is likely to be only a provisional move, Berlin’s decision to freeze the certification process of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) indicates that its perception of Russia as a partner in energy cooperation is also changing.

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The Zapad-2021 exercises. Russian strategy in practice

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

The Zapad-2021 strategic exercises, scheduled for 10–16 September, are the most important training programme yet undertaken held by the Russian Armed Forces and the Belarusian army which cooperates with them. As they involve as many as 200,000 soldiers, they will also be the largest military exercises conducted in Europe for nearly 40 years. The training phase actually began in July, and will peak during the officially announced dates. The accompanying disinformation operation began even earlier, at the end of 2020; the aim was to present the exercises as a defensive action by the alliance of Belarus and Russia against allegedly rising aggression by NATO. The Zapad-2021 (zapad meaning ‘west’) exercises are a test of how ready the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus are to conduct operations on NATO’s eastern flank, but they also represent a test of the state structures, in terms of the comprehensive security of their activities and operation in conditions of armed conflict. Particular importance should be attached to the attempt at verifying how effective both countries will beat conducting information warfare, the goal of which is to confirm the potential enemy in the belief that Russia is militarily superior, and that it is ready to use force for political purposes.

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Prospects for Unification Talks in Cyprus

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

At the beginning of November, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders met for the first time after the presidential election in the de facto state of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Politicians have declared their willingness to return to the reunification talks, but a compromise is unlikely. As a consequence, the new president of the TRNC, supported by Turkey, will strive to solve the Cyprus problem by creating two independent states. This poses a serious challenge to the European Union, which advocates the unification of Cyprus as a federal state.

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№189: India and the Emerging Alliance of Democracies: High Stakes, Hard Choices

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

President Joe Biden has raised the prospect of the formation of a coalition of democracies to protect the rules-based global order, under threat from undemocratic regimes. This sounds like an attractive proposal for India, the world’s biggest democracy, both to raise its international profile and strengthen its partnership with the U.S. and its allies, as well as to hedge against authoritarian China. Yet, India’s willingness to join it is constrained by domestic backsliding on democratic standards, its traditional apprehensions about promotion of democracy, and pragmatic links with undemocratic partners.

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Biden, Xi Meet in Indonesia

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The leaders of the U.S. and China met on the sidelines of the G20 summit on the Indonesian island of Bali. President Joe Biden and Chairman Xi Jinping’s primary goal was to ease tensions between the two countries. Although there has been no significant change in the relationship between the states, a revival of high-level direct communication and sectoral dialogue may help reduce the risk of conflict over Taiwan. The parties agreed to return to talks suspended after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, including discussions on combating climate change, and they agreed that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken would visit Beijing to continue the talks.

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New Caledonia Referendum - Too Easy A Victory for Opponents of Independence

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The third and final referendum on the independence of New Caledonia from France, held on 12 December, resulted in an overwhelming victory for its opponents (96.49%). It stemmed from a boycott of the vote by the supporters of independence. While the French authorities consider the referendum result binding and call for dialogue on the future status of New Caledonia, separatist leaders intend to use the successful boycott to question the legitimacy of the last vote.

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Kosovo 2023: Is ‘Serbian resistance’ feasible in Kosovo?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Numerous multilateral meetings have convened to discuss the Kosovo situation. Recently, the European Political Community Summit took place in Granada. Kosovo was in focus, albeit only declaratively, as no substantive steps were taken to overcome the existing crisis and reduce tensions. The forthcoming Berlin Process Summit in Tirana is unlikely to yield a solution for Kosovo, as Germany is primarily part of the problem in Kosovo, rather than a part of the solution.

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2023 Ukraine Crisis: Has the “Great Game” between the West and China already begun?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Historians and geopolitical experts usually seek major shifts to understand and explain the developments in the world, believing they will find answers in any major militarypolitical development. The shifts in the last century included a number of major events, each of which was considered a “milestone” towards a new phase in international relations. Maybe the most prominent of all the events were the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 on the United States of America, which constituted the first foreign attack on US soil since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (US port on Hawaii’s island of Oahu). The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, with major human losses, followed. However, they did not inform the geopolitical situation in the world in the 21st century, which remained the same as we knew it since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early nineties of the 20th century- dominance of the West in the decision making processes at the global level, despite the Russian and Chinese opposition to certain issues. Namely, it was only limited opposition, as seen in the case of the war in Iraq.

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2023 Ukraine Crisis: Implications of Russia-Ukraine War on Middle East

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for 16 months already, has generated significant implications of the political scene of the Middle East, where the war has exposed the complexities of the calculations with which the states of the region are faced as a result of the escalation of international relations and the siding of the countries world-wide with one of the two groups – the group of the US and its western allies on one side and the Russian and China–led group on the other. The war also had repercussions on the geopolitical orientation of the states, as well as bilateral relations between the countries of the region and global powers.

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