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The constitutional referendum – another step towards a New Turkey

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

On 16 April the citizens of Turkey voted in a national referendum to amend the constitution. This will lead to a radical strengthening of the president’s power. 51.4% of the voters backed the amendments. They will come into force after the next presidential and parliamentary election (scheduled for 2019). The amendments are an important step in the thorough reconstruction of the Republic of Turkey which began in 2002. They will strengthen the position of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in legal terms, and – with all the controversies that entails – will adjust the legal status to the situation on the ground. The outcome of the referendum helps to temporarily stabilise the internal situation in Turkey and allows the country to be more active on the international arena; this includes making another attempt to thoroughly revise its relations with the EU. However, the amendment of the constitution is of a technical nature and is a means rather than an end in the process of building a New Turkey. Thus the calming of the situation in Turkey is temporary.

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Putin’s War in the Context of World Meetings

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The period October-November was busy with world meetings none of which have or only peripherally involved Russia because of their malign intent on Ukraine. A distinct change from reporting about the Ukrainian conflict was the football World Cup, the 4- yearly event now being hosted by Qatar, an occasion which was previously hosted by Russia in 2018, and where Putin was frequently visible. The fact that he had annexed Crimea 4 years before had been ‘forgotten’ about and he took all the praise for a successful event. However, Russia has not been qualified for the current Middle East held event. They will be sorely missed! The Qatari event is taking a significant amount of airtime, not just about football, but that is another story.

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2022 EU- Western Balkans: End of era of “courtship” of the West

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The European Union (EU) - Western Balkans Countries summit[2]was organized on 6 December in Tirana. It was an opportunity to discuss joint resolution of the issues that emerged as a consequence of the Russian invasion on Ukraine, intensification of the political dialogue and the enlargement policy, as well as strengthening of the security and building resilience to foreign interference, resolution of challenges posed by migration, fight against terrorism and organized crime. The summit was organized two months after the informal summit of member countries of the European Political Community in Prague, at which all European countries except for Russia and Belarus participated.

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2021 EU – West Balkans summit: EU Credibility in Western Balkans undermined?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The EU and Western Balkans countries summit scheduled to take place on 5 and 6 October 2021 in Brdo pri Kranj, Slovenia is a part of strategic cooperation between the European Union and Western Balkans. The European Union was established as a peace project after the end of World War II and it facilitated establishment of enduring peace and long-term stability in Europe. In the recent history, the Western Balkans region experienced a number of wars, after which fragile and peace and latent stability was established.

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2021 North Macedonia: Morally humiliated and disgraced EU

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

At the EU summit in Thessaloniki in 2003, a clear message on the European perspective of Western Balkan countries was sent. Eighteen years after the EU summit in Thessaloniki, only the Republic of Croatia has been coopted into the EU, two countries have begun the accession talks without much progress, two countries are hoping to get the candidate status, while Kosovo did not even get the visa liberalization regime.

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Biden-Putin summit, surprising or long-awaited

Author(s): Arben Cici / Language(s): English

The White House has prepared for President Joe Biden's first international trip since he was elected the 47th President of the United States. He started his first visit in Europe, where the welcoming climate seems, for many reasons, more positive than that to his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, but also more challenging, despite rising expectations. Anyway, this agenda will be not only busy, but also heated, like a geopolitical clash of Summits in Europe. It began with the G-7 Summit, continues on June 11-13 in the United Kingdom, then with the NATO Summit in Belgium, on June 14, and culminates and come to the end with the high-stake meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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2020 Azerbaijan – Armenia conflict: Historical conflict or conflict with geostrategic dimensions

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The strong conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in the autonomous Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh, which is under the control of Armenia, was renewed recently. The latest conflict between the two countries has escalated and there are no indications that it will calm down, at least not in the foreseeable future. The question being imposed is why is this old conflict, which was at a standstill (frozen conflict) after the serious fights between 1988 and 1994 and in April 2016, being renewed now. Armenia, which controls the disputed region, is satisfied with the status quo, while Azerbaijan, which is rich in energy resources and whose defense expenditures exceed the entire Armenian budget, now threatens to use military force to regain control over the lost region.

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The EU should live up what it stands for: We might be all Hong Kong tomorrow

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

On 26 June 1963, the then-President of the United States John F. Kennedy delivered his famous “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech, underlining the support of the Free World for West Berlin and West Germany. 47 years later, the Special Procedure 50 of the UN Human Rights Council has issued a statement denouncing Beijing’s repression of Tibet and Hong Kong. The statement came just before the National Security Law in Hong Kong was approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.

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2020 Eastern Mediterranean: New episode of political tensions

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The Eastern Mediterranean region is currently experiencing a new cycle of tensions between Turkey and Greece, which belong to the same system and are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO. While the dispute revolves around natural resources, such as natural gas, it essentially boils down to flaring up of old historical enmities rooted in the agreement that established the current borders of the Republic of Turkey after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Namely, the Turkish government wishes to rectify that historic (in)justice. As historical memory still leaves a trace on the presence, the current tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, between Turkey and Greece, are not related just to the natural resources discovered over the past few years, but have roots in historical disputes dating back almost an entire century.

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Turkey and the UAE’s Dangerous Collision Course

Author(s): Antonio Occhiuto,Giorgio Cafiero / Language(s): English

It is impossible to deny that tensions between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are escalating. Although relations between these two powers have been worsening since the “Arab Spring” uprisings of 2011, this year the Turkish-Emirati “Cold War” is heating up significantly. Abu Dhabi and Ankara are challenging each other across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)—from Libya to Qatar and Syria to Yemen—while other regions such as the Balkans, Central Asia, and the Horn of Africa are also theaters for their competition. In May 2020, Ankara’s chief diplomat, Mevlut Cavusoglu, accused Abu Dhabi of sowing chaos through its military interventions in Libya and Yemen. These words from Cavusoglu were a response to a joint statement made by Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, and the UAE, which condemned Ankara’s military intervention in Libya that has severely weakened the Emirati-sponsored General Khalifa Haftar’s power. “If you are asking who is destabilizing this region, who is bringing chaos, then we would say Abu Dhabi without any hesitation,” said Turkey’s top diplomat. “It is a reality that they are the force that has unsettled Libya and destroyed Yemen.”

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The UAE’s Growing Role in Central Asia: Geopolitical Inroads to Challenge Turkey and Iran

Author(s): Kristian Alexander,Giorgio Cafiero / Language(s): English

Since the Soviet Union imploded in 1991 and the Central Asian republics gained their independence, a host of countries have competed for geopolitical influence in this resource-wealthy region. Along with Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, the US, and a number of EU member states, the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been actively working to strengthen their clout in this region, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) taking the lead.

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Thoughts of Romania’s Foreign Policy on the Background of the European Foreign Policy

Author(s): Corneliu Pivariu / Language(s): English

In the last decade the strategic, political, economic, military, energy and technological balances were strongly affected by global challenges, strategic, political, juridical and technological disruptions each one impacting on one or several fields. Human society is in a evolutionary crisis which the main international traditional players are not able yet to manage properly and each one of them seeks to position itself as profitable as possible in anticipation of a new world order in a globalized world. The developments are fast and often momentous, and as one of the attendees noted – important geopolitical events that occurred in the last two months are equaling the ones that took place in the last decade.

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The Russian-Ukrainian conflict over Crimea

Author(s): Anton Bebler / Language(s): English

For the last four decades security in Europe has been burdened by armed violence accompanying the disintegration of a number of states in the Eastern Mediterranean, Western Balkans and the territory of the former Soviet Union. They have resulted in the creation of many new internationally recognised states, unrecognised state-like entities and unresolved ‘frozen’ conflicts. A probable newcomer to the last type appeared in spring 2014 – the Ukrainian-Russian conflict over Crimea. Most of the international community does not recognise its annexation by Russia and considers that Crimea still belongs to Ukraine. The annexation and related attempted secessions and armed hostilities in Eastern Ukraine have worsened the West’s relations with Russia and the general political climate in the EuroAtlantic area. The political and legal stand-off between Ukraine and Russia has created an additional ‘frozen’ conflict in Europe.

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WAR BY OTHER MEANS. Kremlin’s Energy Policy as a Channel of Influence - A comparative assessment and case studies from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Romania and Hungary

Author(s): Ana Otilia Nuțu,Sorin Ioniță / Language(s): English

The EU has been increasingly caught up in its own internal struggles over the past years - migration, populism, Brexit - and is facing fundamental challenges to its core principles and values from problematic member states such as Poland, Hungary or Romania. Russia stands only to benefit from such internal divisions. As usual, Moscow has its instruments to exert significant political influence in its “near abroad”, but also to expand it in the formerly communist Central Europe and further towards the West. As the prospects to finalize Kremlin’s pet energy projects Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream loom ever closer, this report is meant to ring the alarm bells: excessive reliance on Russian energy is a real threat, not only to energy security of Central and Eastern Europe, but also for the broader, fundamental objective of improving governance across the region, as many of the Eastern Partnership countries can testify. The five case studies we present in this report cover a broad range of problems and very different situations.

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Poland in the eyes of Germans

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The overall goal of this project, the results of which are presented in this report, was to obtain an up-to-date picture of public attitudes and sentiments toward Poland and its people, as well as the level of familiarity with Polish history and the present state of affairs. At the same time, the research attempted to assess German public perceptions on the scale of convergence concerning Polish and German interests in the political, security and economic spheres.

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Kako do podjele BiH na statističke regije?

Author(s): Mirela Hodović,Denis Hadžović / Language(s): Bosnian

Proteklih mjeseci politička agonija u BiH doživljava svoj vrhunac, a ovakvo bezizlazno stanje donosi najviše poteškoća na planu evropskih integracija. Opravdan je strah javnosti da bi, sa ovako negativnim trendom kretanja, BiH mogla izgubiti i ono malo stečenog kredibiliteta i kvalifikacija na putu integrisanja u EU. Na jednom od sastanaka predstavnika Evropske komisije i institucija BiH, najviše primjedbi upućeno je na dio Sporazuma o stabilizaciji i pridruživanju vezano za obavezu podnošenja brojčanih pokazatelja po glavi stanovnika u BiH. Tačnije, radi se o takozvanom nivou NUTS II, čiji je krajnji rok za realizaciju juli 2013. godina. Ovo pitanje je jedna od obaveza koju EU zahtijeva od svih kandidata za punopravno članstvo, a ujedno i osnov za definisanje statističke regionalizacije države, putem koje se stvaraju pretpostavke za značajnije povlačenje sredstava iz EU fondova. Svedoci smo da je Hrvatska tek nedavno usaglasila ovo pitanje sa EU, ispunjavajući time i jedan od zadnjih uslova pristupanja Uniji, planirano za juli naredne godine. Za Hrvatsku, pitanje statističke regionalizacije bilo je i više nego značajno, pa je tek u zadnjem momentu odlučila da umjesto dosadašnje tri statističke regije uspostavi novu podjelu na dvije regije, tzv. kontinentalnu i jadransku. Ova odluka bazirana je na procjeni da prethodno uspostavljeni model od tri regije ne bi predstavljao najbolje rješenje za povlačenju novca iz strukturalnih i kohezionih fondova EU. Treba napomenuti da je Hrvatskoj trebalo punih pet godina da se usaglasi o ovom pitanju, pa iz toga proizilazi bojazan koliko će vremena trebati BiH da postigne dogovor o podijeli na statističke regije. Pitanje regionalizacije u BiH je moguće pokrenuti tek po okončanom popisu stanovništva koji se treba provesti naredne godine, ali političku i javnu raspravu bi bilo potrebno pokrenuti što prije. Ovo ističemo, prije svega, jer je poznato koliko iscrpni i dugotrajni znaju biti dogovori u BiH, a još je i za pristupanje statističkoj regionalizaciji potrebno uvesti i decentralizovani sistem upravljanja, koji je, iako iniciran prije pet godina, proces koji još uvijek nije okončan.

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Western Balkans: EU enlargement trough the 'Little Bang'

Author(s): Denis Hadžović,Marija Vishinova / Language(s): English

Although the Western Balkan countries followed a similar historical path under socialism, replaced by an exhausting period of political and economic transition, they are not equally prepared to be members of the European Union. With the divisions of the countries among the frontrunners and lagers, as repeated at the Sofia Summit, the process of EU enlargement will result with many fierce consequences and will lead to additional years of isolation and decades of strained relations. On the Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Kosovo road towards EU integration precedes deep and complex constitutional settlement, in which creation EU played one of the major roles. Even though the regatta principle is a current mechanism on which each of the countries is assessed on its process of integration, it seems that a common WB6 entrance in the EU is the most feasible scenario. In that way, for a more prosperous and unified Western Balkans and for a secure and finally completed European Union, Catch-all, or a Little Bang Approach is the best solution for the stakeholders.

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Zapadni Balkan: Proširenje EU kroz 'Mali prasak'

Author(s): Marija Vishinova,Denis Hadžović / Language(s): Bosnian

Iako su zemlje Zapadnog Balkana imale sličan historijski put u vrijeme socijalizma, nakon čega je uslijedio iscrpljujući period političke i ekonomske tranzicije, evidentno je da one trenutno nisu podjednako spremne da postanu članice Evropske unije. Podjela zemalja na predvodnike i one koje zaostaju, ponovno naglašena na Samitu u Sofiji, daljnji proces proširenja EU bi obilježila mnogim neželjenim posljedicama te vodila dodatnim godinama izolacije i desetljećima napetih odnosa. Na bosanskohercegovačkom, makedonskom i kosovskom putu ka integraciji u EU, ispriječila su se zahtjevna i kompleksna ustavna rješenja, pričemu je EU imala jednu od glavnih uloga u kreiranju istih. Uprkos tome što je princip regate trenutno mehanizam na osnovu kojeg se procjenjuje napredak države u procesu integracija, čini se da bi zajednički ulazak šest zemalja Zapadnog Balkana (WB6) u EU bio najprikladniji scenario. Za prosperitetniji i ujedinjeniji Zapadni Balkan, ali i za sigurniju i konačno cjelovitu Evropsku uniju, zajednički ulazak ili pristup 'Malog praska' najbolje je rješenje za sve aktere.

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What have we learned from the COVID-19 crisis in terms of Sino-Serbian relations? China’s influence in Serbia will grow as much as the EU allows it to

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić,Miloš Janjić / Language(s): English

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Serbian and international expert community has become alarmed by Serbia’s overwhelming emphasis on China in its fight against the virus. Coupled with a statement proclaiming the end of European solidarity by the Serbian President as a result of the EU’s untimely assistance, recent developments in Sino-Serbian relations warrant attention - especially from the perspective of Serbia’s EU accession process. The concern is so great that some are worried that China might misuse the situation to continue expanding its political influence in Serbia, while weakening the EU’s regional position. Others also warn that the boost of public support for China will diminish the already-fragile support of Serbian citizens for the EU. The basis for these fears can be found in the fact that Serbia indeed already stands out from the rest of the Western Balkan countries in terms of its level of political and economic cooperation with this Asian giant.

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Political Priorities of Serbia in 2024: Between Trans-Atlantic, Sino-American, and EU-China Relations

Author(s): Đorđe Dimitrov / Language(s): English

In the face of looming global challenges, Serbia finds itself navigating a complex and uncertain landscape. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with heightened tensions in the Western Balkans region, have placed the country in a precarious position. The past year has been particularly turbulent for Serbia, marked by widespread anti-government protests and snap elections in December 2023, which were characterised by allegations of electoral fraud, both on national and local levels. On a foreign policy level, developments such as the United Nations Srebrenica resolution and developments regarding Kosovo’s Council of Europe membership application have further inflamed public discourse and increased political tensions in Serbia. Meanwhile, exactly a decade since the start of the accession talks, Serbia’s journey toward the EU shows no encouraging signs of the necessary change.

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