The improving economic situation in Russia: reality or creative statistics?

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The indicators published in recent months by the Russian Statistics Office (Rosstat) are much more optimistic than the estimates and forecasts announced several months earlier. A significant improvement in statistical data is evident in particular regarding the figures for GDP and industrial production. According to new information, over the last two years (2015-2016) the Russian economy shrank by 3%, and not by 4.5% as previously estimated. Moreover, data compiled by Rosstat show an increase in industrial production was registered, even in the face of a decline in citizens’ income and fixed investment. In addition, the slowdown in the industrial sector was found to have ended at the beginning of 2016 and not at the end of 2016 as previously reported.The improvement of economic indicators can undoubtedly be attributed to certain objective factors, including taking into account more detailed data or a change in methodology, which is a natural element of the process of compiling statistical data. However, the scale of the change and the lack of professionalism on the part of Rosstat, including the manner of presenting the data, its failure to observe the deadlines for issuing publications and selective inclusion of data, undermine the credibility of the presented figures. Therefore, increasing caution is advised when interpreting these data. Doubts regarding the quality of the indicators presented by Rosstat make the assessment of Russia’s actual economic situation increasingly difficult. As a consequence, reservations towards the Russian statistics office seem to be all the more justified. These suggest that Rosstat is under political pressure from the Kremlin and that these new, improved statistics meet the government’s propaganda-motivated demand for information. Ahead of the upcoming presidential election planned for March 2018, the government would like to emphasise its effectiveness, such as by efficiently overcoming the crisis and stabilising the economic situation in Russia.

The stable crisis. Ukraine’s economy three years after the Euromaidan

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The economic statistics for 2016 indicate that Ukraine has managed to overcome the toughest phase of the economic crisis. For the first time in four years, the Ukrainian economy recorded a positive growth rate of around 2%[1]. This is due to the reforms launched in the first months following the EuroMaidan and of the implementation of the reconstruction programme under pressure from Western lenders, mainly the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU. In addition, the favourable situation on global commodity markets and the drop in the price of energy resources, as well as good weather conditions which enabled record high grain harvest and an all-time-high export of grains, have had a positive impact on the Ukrainian economy. Economic growth has accompanied the stabilisation of the macroeconomic situation, which manifests itself, for example, in halting the slide in the hryvnia in concert with the gradual replenishment of foreign exchange reserves, the favourable balancing of budgetary revenues and spending (the deficit of around 3% GDP), maintaining the expected level of inflation and the improvement of the situation in the banking sector.

Trading off sovereignty. The outcome of Belarus’s integration with Russia in the security and defence field

Author(s): Anaïs Marin / Language(s): English

Although the Republic of Belarus is constitutionally designated as a neutral country1, it is in fact closely connected with Russia’s own security and defence architecture. Within the Union State of Belarus and Russia, the armed forces are integrated to an extent unequalled in the world. A legacy of the Soviet division of labour, the Belarusian defence industry complex remains structurally dependent on Russia, which is its main raw material provider, outlet for exports and intermediary on world markets.Bilateral military cooperation also builds on the perception of common threats and partly shared security interests. Hence it unfolds regardless of the disputes that sporadically sour relations between Minsk and Moscow, standing out as the main achievement of the Union State – if not the only one.

Could Transnistria block Moldova's integration with the EU?

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk,Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Moldova’s progress in its negotiations on an Association Agreement with the European Union, with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) as its key element, has become a source of tension between Chisinau and the breakaway Republic of Transnistria. An almost certain refusal by Transnistria to join the DCFTA, will deprive the region of the benefits it currently enjoys under the EU Autonomous Trade Preferences (ATP) worsening its already precarious economic situation.It is to be expected that the issue will become an additional source of tension between the two sides of the Transnistrian conflict, and might also have a negative impact on the EU-Russia relationship.

Russia In Crisis: Year One

Author(s): Agata Dubas,Jadwiga Rogoża,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Belarus 2006

Author(s): Rafał Sadowski / Language(s): English

The presidential election of 19 March 2006, which Alyaksandr Lukashenka won, played an important role in developing the dictatorial political regime in Belarus. In order to ensure Lukashenka's victory, the authorities employed repressive and undemocratic methods, which since then have become permanent elements of the political system in Belarus. They included legal and administrative measures to limit the citizens' freedom, arbitrary ways of applying these measures, actions by the state security institutions intended to intimidate the public, a large-scale state propaganda campaign, and restrictions on civil liberties and freedom of speech. The presidential election strengthened Alyaksandr Lukashenka's political position, as the president extended his rule by another five years to 2011. It also reinforced the repression apparatus, consolidated the ruling group and ensured that the democrats remained marginalised. This has ensured the stability of the Belarusian regime and preserved the country's specific political and economic system.This report aims to present the situation in Belarus since the presidential election in March 2006.Part I, devoted to the internal situation, is a description of the internal political scene, i.e. the ruling camp and the opposition. It also includes a section on the prevailing moods in Belarusian society. Another section presents the economic situation in Belarus and the government's economic policy.Part II examines the foreign relations of Belarus, and consists of two sections: the first describes the Belarusian government's relations with Russia, its single most important foreign partner, and the second its relations with Western countries, i.e. the EU member states and NATO countries. Finally, the last part contains predictions of future developments in Belarus.

It’s not (only) about Erika Steinbach. Three myths in the German discourse on the resettlements

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English,Polish

The activity of the Federation of Expellees and its chairperson Erika Steinbach, including efforts aimed at establishing the Centre Against Expulsions have been and will continue to be a source of controversy in Germany’s domestic policy, as well as in Polish–German and Czech–German relations. Steinbach has become a central figure in German inter-party conflicts and in disputes with the country’s immediate neighbours. In her efforts to gain more publicity for injustice and suffering in the German past she has resorted to controversial methods and has thus latched onto another stage in the historical debate on the consequences of World War II. This time it is related to and interpreted from the point of view of the German victims. The consequences of the present debate on how Germany suffered during the war do matter and will continue to matter both for Germany itself and for Germany’s relations with its near neighbours. Contrary to popular belief, the debate, still underway and in the shape imposed by Erika Steinbach, is likely to bring some benefit to Poland.

Belarus - Russia: Whither Integration?

Author(s): Rafał Sadowski / Language(s): English,Polish

Of the re-integration processes currently taking place in the former Soviet Union, the formation of a Russian-Belarusian so-called 'Union State' is one of the most advanced. A customs union was formally announced between the two countries as early as 1995 and the process of constructing the Union State itself was launched in December 1999. However, both events were largely driven by the perceived need to match societal demands, without much concrete action and the Union State remained largely 'virtual'. Only in the last few years has the Russian initiative allowed for moving from symbolic gestures to political action and since late 2002 debate and policy have intensified on specific issues of economic and political co-operation. However, despite such advances in the integration process, its objectives remain vague and there is little or no agreement on the principles that should govern the process. Furthermore, current bilateral relations questions still dominate the dialogue. The project seems at present to be driven mainly by the political interests of both countries' presidents and also, to a lesser extent, by the interests of business, political, military and security elites, each apparently motivated by self- and group-interest in the emerging dialogue of integration. In contrast to EU integration, the societies of the two countries involved appear to have had little or no say in the process. Thus, several questions naturally arise. What is the real nature of such integration? What motivates the parties involved? What stage has the process reached? What likely future course will it take? What might be the consequences of it for Belarusian independence? Answers to these questions should ultimately determine the stance and policies of the enlarged EU in this area.

Eastern Policy of the EU: the Visegrad Countries' Perspective. Thinking about an Eastern Dimension

Author(s): Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz / Language(s): English,Polish

1. After its enlargement, scheduled for 2004, the European Union will face a completely new situation at its eastern borders. This new situation calls for a new concept of the EU eastern activities, i.e. for development of the new Eastern Policy of the EU.2. Due to a number of specific features such as geographical location, closeness of ties, direct risk factors etc., the Visegrad countries will and should be particularly interested in the process of formulating the new EU Eastern Policy. Consequently, they should be the co-makers of this policy.3. The new EU Eastern Policy should differ fundamentally from the Union's traditional eastern relations. Firstly, its scope should not cover the entire CIS area: instead, the policy should focus on some of the European successor states of the former Soviet Union, namely Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, as well as Moldova, following the accession of Romania. It does not seem advisable to exclude the Russian Federation from this policy and to develop and implement a separate policy towards it. The new Eastern Policy should be an autonomous component and one of the most important elements in the overall foreign policy of the EU.4. Secondly, the new Eastern Policy should be founded on the following two pillars: a region-oriented strategy, which could be called the Eastern Dimension, and reshaped strategies for individual countries. The Eastern Dimension should set up a universal framework of co-operation, defining its basic mechanisms and objectives. These should include: the adaptation assistance programme, JHA, transborder co-operation, social dialogue and transport infrastructures. The approach, however, should be kept flexible, taking into account the specific situation of each country. This purpose should be served by keeping in place the existing bilateral institutional contacts between the EU and each of its eastern neighbours, and by developing a national strategy for each neighbour.

Jesen pasionera

Author(s): Andrey Piontkovsky / Language(s): Serbian

Koje se kritične tačke u novom hladnom ratu mogu pojaviti, kuda nišani Navaljni, hoće li elita ponovo izabrati „vrhovnog kremaljskog dripca“ za predsednika, koga pripremaju za mogućeg naslednika i kakve veze sa svim tim ima Amerika, to su bile glavne teme ovog avgusta, a to su i otvorena pitanja koja tokom ovog septembra čekaju odgovore. Redakcija Kasparov.ru je o svemu ovome razgovarala s poznatim ruskim publicistom Andrejem Piontkovskim.

Mir s daždevnjacima

Author(s): Aleksandar Skobov / Language(s): Serbian

Roman „Rat s daždevnjacima“ Karel Čapek je napisao dve godine pre potpisivanja Minhenskog sporazuma i u njemu detaljno opisao kako evropske države, korak po korak, predaju Evropu Hitleru. Mnogima je već tada bilo jasno gde vodi takva politika.

Rusija i Evropa

Author(s): Artemy Troitsky / Language(s): Serbian

Do prošlogodišnjih ukrajinsko-krimskih događaja niko nije dovodio u sumnju „evropejstvo“ Ruske Federacije ili tačnije, nije bilo aktivnih razgovora na tu temu. Kao, sve je u redu: da, autokratija umesto demokratije, par problema s ljudskim pravima… ali na planu kulture, mentaliteta, mere civilizovanosti – odakle uopšte takva sumnja! Pa nismo li i mi Rusi pripadnici „bele rase“? A što se korupcije tiče ili već poslovičnog haosa koji u mnogim oblastima suvereno vlada, to nije samo kod nas i u Nigeriji. Obratite pažnju na neke od članica Evropske unije, recimo na Grčku ili Italiju.

Balkan kao Ahilova peta Evrope

Author(s): Ivan Krastev / Language(s): Serbian

Da li je Balkan sledeće igralište Vladimira Putina i njegove politike destabilizacije Evrope? Angela Merkel je nedavno nagovestila takvu mogućnost i ona zaslužuje ozbiljno razmatranje. Finansijska kriza iz 2008. je na neko vreme uspela da smiri strasti između zapada i Rusije. Izjave solidarnosti posle terorističkih napada u Francuskoj teško da će imati isti efekat. Putin je previše ozlojeđen, Evropa previše zabrinuta, a ni sećanja na kratkotrajno primirje od pre nekoliko godina nisu dobra: američko razmetanje „resetovanjem“ odnosa sa Rusijom završilo se aneksijom Krima.

Časni uzmak

Author(s): Ilja Miljštejn / Language(s): Serbian

Moskva je, rekao je Peskov, krajnje zabrinuta. Sličnu izjavu je dalo i rusko Ministarstvo inostranih poslova, i to je zaista ozbiljna vest. Jer ako je Moskvu nešto zabrinulo, pa još krajnje – ostaje nam samo da čekamo posledice. I još je (opet) krajnje nevažno je li tome razlog antisovjetsko Praško proleće ili sudbina naših zemljaka na Krimu. Tada intervencija koja se u takvim slučajevima jednostavnosti radi naziva „bratska pomoć“, postaje praktično neizbežna.

Od hladnog rata do vrućeg mira

Author(s): Slavoj Žižek / Language(s): Serbian

Ruska invazija na Ukrajinu uvela nas je u novu fazu ratovanja i globalne politike. Rizik od nuklearne katastrofe zatekao nas je u savršenoj oluji globalnih kriza koje se međusobno pothranjuju – pandemija, klimatska kriza, gubitak biodiverziteta, nestašice hrane i vode. Prilike su razotkrile bazično ludilo: u vreme kada je sam opstanak čovečanstva ugrožen ekološkim (i drugim) faktorima i kada bi rešavanje tih pretnji trebalo da bude prioritet u odnosu na sve ostalo, naš fokus se odjednom skreće – opet – na novu političku krizu. U trenutku kada je globalna saradnja potrebnija nego ikad „sukob civilizacija“ nam se vraća sa osvetničkom silinom.

Šta je Putin rekao

Author(s): Vladimir Gligorov / Language(s): Serbian

Nije uopšte potrebno tumačiti. Predsednik Rusije je Generalnom sekretaru Ujedinjenih nacija objasnio zašto smatra da je ruska vojna intervencija u Ukrajini u saglasnosti sa međunarodnim pravom. Što je ovaj drugi gotovo ispod glasa osporio. Objašnjenje je poučno.

Novi svetski poredak

Author(s): Vladimir Gligorov / Language(s): Serbian

Ovo je samo kratka primedba. Uzmimo da je poredak sa jednom supersilom, dakle unipolarni poredak, gori po svetsku i po bezbednost svake pojedine zemlje, ili bar većine zemalja, pa se teži multipolarnom svetskom poretku u kojem bi se samovolja jedne supersile ograničila ravnotežom snaga više svetskih sila, recimo takođe supersila. Koji je potreban uslov da bi zaista multipolarni svetski poredak bio bezbedniji od unipolarnog?

National Security & Defence, № 008 (2000 - 08)

Author(s): Andriy Bychenko,Leonid Polyakov,Sherman Garnett,Grigoriy Perepelytsia,James Sherr,László Nagy,György Varga,Dimitry A. Danilov,Serhiy Zgurets,Martin Malek / Language(s): English

ROUND TABLE BY CORRESPONDENCE // UKRAINE-NATO: ACHIEVEMENTS, PROBLEMS, PERSPECTIVES // HOW MUCH OF NAT0 DO UKRAINIANS WANT? // UKRAINE - NATO RELATIONS: EXPERT'S VIEW // UKRAINE AS AN INTERNATIONAL ACTOR // NATO RELATIONS WITH UKRAINE: PROSPECTS FOR PROGRESS // UKRAINE AND NATO: PROSPECTS FOR CO-OPERATION // THE FUTURE OF NATO-UKRAINE CO-OPERATION: A WESTERN PERSPECTIVE // CONTACTS BEMEEN UKRAINE AND NATO: THE VIEW FROM HUNGARY // MOSCOW AND NATO EXPANSION: READY FOR THE SECOND WAVE? // UKRAINE'S CO-OPERATION WITH NATO: ARE THERE ANY GROUNDS FOR CONCERN? A VIEW FROM MOSCOW // ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO BACK OR, ON UKRAINE'S NOT-ALLIED LIFE BVEEN NATO AND RUSSIA // NEUTRAL AUSTRIA AND NATO: POSSIBLE MODEL FOR UKRAINE?

Many Faces of Serbian Foreign Policy

Author(s): Author Non Specified / Language(s): English

The Masks Have Slipped: Serbia in a Geopolitical Pandemic

Author(s): Marko Drajić,Maja Bjeloš,Isidora Stakic / Language(s): English

A bad film might include such features as unconvincing actors, a predictable plot, forced lines, unnecessarily explicit love scenes and a nonsensical ending. In which case Serbia’s foreign policy during the state of emergency, declared in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, looks like a multiple winner of the Golden Raspberry award. Maladjusted to the new circumstances, she remained silent when she should have spoken out, spoke the wrong lines at the wrong moments, stammered and overacted only to come to the expected unhappy end – on bad terms with her most important international partners and in a firm embrace with those who are unpredictable.