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№043: Waiting for the Fifth Generation of Chinese Leaders

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is about to enter the final phase of the transition of power to the new leadership. The process, inaugurated in the Spring of 2011, has been neither transparent, nor smooth and free from sometimes dramatic intra-party struggles. Even though it has been subject to intense scrutiny, its ultimate outcome remains an enigma. The author of the analysis takes stock of the procedural aspects of the periodic change of guard within the CCP’s core of power and influence, and confronts them with the known and alleged factional strives in an attempt to offer an early forecast of the prospects for China’s internal political development and its foreign policy in the coming decade. The fifth generation of Chinese leaders will preside over a tumultuous period in China’s interactions with the international community—one in which likely see the solidification of the country’s status as a great power.

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№042: United States’ Foreign Policy Under Obama: What Could a Second Term Bring?

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight race for the White House. If Obama were to emerge triumphant, what would that mean for America’s foreign policy? During the second term, Obama could try to capitalise on the remaining credibility among the foreign audiences, and attempt to pursue an activist, risk-averse strategy internationally. In practice, however, Obama is likely to face serious obstacles to mobilise the international community to support his agenda. Domestic circumstances—the need to focus on averting a short-term fiscal meltdown, and to address long-term challenges to United States’ economic standing and global competitiveness—would also consume a considerable amount of the president’s attention and political capital. An upcoming reshuffling within Obama’s national security team could add momentum to United States’ diplomatic activities, but it will be largely up to the president to decide whether he will seek to secure his legacy in the foreign policy domain.

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№040: Predictable Continuity: Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections 2012

Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English

This weekend’s parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be watched closely in Europe and beyond as the voting is an important step in the preparation for the battle for presidency – currently a major power centre in the country. It can also have significant influence on Ukraine’s relations with the West. The biggest country in Eastern Europe with 46-million people population remains on the crossroads between democracy and the state run by the groups of interests. If the elections are accepted as free and fair by the international community, the EU will have to look for a constructive way to cooperate with Ukrainian authorities – writes Igor Lyubashenko.

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№035: Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan: Heading Towards a Regional Crisis?

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The Middle Eastern map of political alliances, affiliations and animosities is being constantly redrawn, but certain elements endure. The revolutionary turmoil in the region, now on full display in Syria, together with mounting tensions over issues such as Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, are the most pertinent issues that are bringing to the fore the deep, structural differences inherent in the Turkish-Iranian-Azerbaijani triangle. After what seemed as a period of growing Turkish-Iranian affinity in the past decade, the relations between Ankara and Tehran are on a downward trajectory. Turkey found it impossible to continue with the policy of „zero problems with neighbours” in the light of the events in Syria—it sided with the Sunni opposition, thus antagonizing not only the regime in Damascus, but also its most valued ally, Iran. In addition, Turkey seems to have re-calibrated its position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, using it to signal the lack of support for Tehrans anti-Western policies. In case of Azerbaijan, religious affinity with Iran seems to count less than the underlying geopolitical choices. On top of that, a secular Azerbaijan finds itself in a sharp ideological conflict with a teocratic Iran, and is deeply concerned with Iran’s anti-Israeli rhetorics and actions. Whether a regional crisis will unfold is largely dependent on the ability of all three countries to forestall the escalation of the existing problems into much graver feuds.

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№027: Russia’s International Climate Policy

Author(s): Andrzej Turkowski / Language(s): English

The paper presents the determinants, goals and instruments of the Russian international climate policy. The author points to the pragmatism that characterizes the Russian approach to the climate change issue, and highlights the key drivers behind Russia’s stance during the recently-launched post-Durban negotiations.

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№022: The European Development Fund: Perspectives and the Changing Landscape of EU-ACP Relations

Author(s): Karolina Werner / Language(s): English

The European Development Fund is arguably one of the most potent tools of the European Union’s policy towards the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific region. As the member states and the EU institutions prepare to make a decision on the future shape and scope of the EDF, the following analysis lays out the intricacies of the EU-ACP relationship from its outset, and addresses the key elements of the debate within the decision-making and expert circles. The EDF is plagued by general inconsistency of the EU policy towards these regions, and suffers from all-too-familiar shortcomings such as extensive bureaucracy and ineffective programming of aid. Despite these challenges, the EDF has established itself as a fairly predictable and versatile instrument for channeling of aid, and one which adequately addresses the needs of most of the ACP countries. Still, some reforms, such as greater diversification between the three regions involved, could be necessary, all this while the EU member states stand by their commitments to development aid.

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№020: European Neighbourhood Policy: How to Reconcile EU’s Offer with Neighbour’s Expectations?

Author(s): Monika Arcipowska,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The paper diagnoses the key challenges faced by the European Union as it re-calibrates its policy towards its immediate neighbours to the east and to the south, spurred by the recognition of inadequate progress in the former case, and by a tectonic shift in the socio-political landscape in the latter case. The authors argue that the EU needs to urgently address the disconnect between its own objectives in the neighbourhood, and the expectations of its partners, who are themselves a hugely heterogenic group. The EU has no better choice but to increase the conditionality behind its initiatives, and to introduce greater differentiation among their addressees. The institutional, structural and financial constraints of the EU’s neighbourhood policy only add to the challenge, but the EU has too much to loose in terms of its own credibility as a foreign policy actor to allow them to prevail.

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№009: The Egyptian Revolution and its Aftermath

Author(s): Mohamed Elegati / Language(s): English

Zespół autorski kreśli przebieg wydarzeń, które przejdą do historii jako Rewolucja 25 Stycznia – proces zakończony ustąpieniem z urzędu wieloletniego prezydenta Egiptu, Hosniego Mubaraka. Nie mniej istotne jest to, jak potoczą się wypadki na dynamicznej egipskiej scenie politycznej i jaką rolę odegrają najważniejsi aktorzy – armia, związki zawodowe oraz ugrupowania religijne, uznawanym za nieprzewidywalne, a przez to niebezpieczne, Bractwem Muzułmańskim na czele. Analizę zamyka ocena postawy społeczności międzynarodowej wobec wydarzeń, których symbolem stały się wypadki na placu Tahrir w Kairze, oraz rozważania na temat perspektyw procesu zapoczątkowanego przed pięcioma miesiącami.

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№008: The Limits of British Leadership—Test Case Libya

Author(s): Gareth Chappell / Language(s): English

Artykuł kreśli panoramę czynników, które wywarły wpływ na stanowisko Wielkiej Brytanii wobec kryzysu libijskiego, poczynając od motywów humanitarnych, poprzez interesy bezpieczeństwa, wymiar wewnętrzny relacji brytyjsko-libijskich, a na interesach gospodarczych kończąc. Autor dowodzi, że choć rząd brytyjski wykazywał się dużą aktywnością w obliczu kryzysu, jego działania tylko w ograniczonym stopniu miały decydujący wpływ na bieg wypadków, zwłaszcza po uchwaleniu rezolucji RB ONZ nr 1973. Wprawdzie postulat siłowej reakcji na wydarzenia w Libii zwykło się przypisywać ścisłemu współdziałaniu Francji i Wielkiej Brytanii, ale kryzys libijski trudno uznać za miarodajną podstawę prognozowania współpracy francusko-brytyjskiej w przyszłości. Mimo że ich reakcja wobec kwestii libijskiej była co do zasady zbieżna, to działania władz Wielkiej Brytanii i Francji wynikały z odmiennych przesłanek.

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VisegrAid 4 Moldova report: Effectiveness by Collaboration

Author(s): / Language(s): English

By 2014 Moldova has become the priority Eastern Partnership country in terms of bilateral aid for each of the V4 states. Yet without a European mechanism to coordinate bilateral aid for Moldova, such efforts often overlap with respect to priorities. Offering an overview of bilateral aid of each V4 state and assessing the needs of Moldova itself, the report also formulates concrete recommendations on how to counter the increasing in-country aid fragmentation in Moldova and enhance the efficiency of the distributed aid.

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Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs has published the third issue of the “V4 Papers” titled “Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation”. The volume edited by Dr Kacper Rękawek of the Polish Institute of International Affairs analyses past experiences and prospects for V4 cooperation while combatting non-military threats like international terrorism and organised crime to the region.The publication is a part of a project "Creating a Sphere of Security in Wider Central Europe: Sharing V4 Know-how in Cooperation on Security with the Neighbouring Regions" supported by the International Visegrad Fund.

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Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Although the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is one of Turkey’s closest partners, Ankara disapproved of this week’s independence referendum. Yet, Turkey did not take actions that would have forced the Iraqi Kurds to postpone or cancel the vote. That suggests Turkish politicians’ stance on the referendum was dictated by domestic political considerations and will harden only if the situation with Iraqi Kurdistan constitutes a threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity.

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China’s Internet Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China treats the internet as an arena for global competition. It believes that EU and U.S. support for unrestricted access to information on the global level endangers the stability of its political regime. China has strengthened control over internet usage within its borders to restrict information flow. It also uses the economic expansion of Chinese IT companies abroad to make its position on cyberspace stronger and its draft International Code of Conduct for Information Security is contradictory to the EU and U.S. concepts. China’s actions require EU resistance to defend global open internet and economic freedom.

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The Importance of the UK’s Withdrawal Bill in the Brexit Negotiations with the EU

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill 2017–2018 is the highest-level UK government document concerning the legal and administrative dimension of Brexit. The legal importance of the bill is grounded in its designed influence on the UK legal system. Its political importance stems from the UK’s demonstrated readiness to leave the EU without a deal and from the polarisation of the country’s politics on the issue. In the background of the legislative works are UK government efforts to persuade its EU partners to open talks on the future model of the EU-UK relationship.

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Trump’s Trade Policy: Protectionism Bluster

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

The Trump administration’s trade policy is mostly bluster. The declarations of withdrawal from international agreements or threats to introduce protectionist measures are meant to serve the U.S. president to achieve economic and political benefits. However, these threats are voiced too often, have become unreliable, and have had only limited effect. While America’s partners need to be prepared in case Trump’s declarations are enacted, the stability of the U.S. economy, the strength of its alliances, and pressure from business and politicians—including Republicans—reduce the likelihood they will be pursued.

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Romania’s European Policy

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Delivering his State of the European Union speech, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker asked Romania, which will hold the presidency of the Council of the EU in 2019, to organise an extraordinary EU summit in Sibiu—the first one after the UK’s withdrawal if it proceeds according to schedule. He also appealed to the Member States for accept Romania in the Schengen area immediately. Increasingly, EU partners are seeking Romanian support at a time of debate on the Union’s future. Romania has avoided confrontation with the EU institutions and the bloc’s largest Member States, and has declared its intentions to join a mainstream of closer integration, while Poland—the regional point of reference in the Polish neighbourhood until recently—is not active on this issue.

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14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi Strengthens Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The EU-India Summit in New Delhi on 6 October showed an increasing convergence of views on major regional and global issues and boosted the strategic partnership established in 2004. Yet, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations of the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) proves it remains a major challenge, along with the negative effects of Brexit, on EU-India relations. If the negotiations are protracted, the EU may consider a separate deal on investments alone. Poland should consider more actively participating in shaping EU policy on India and using existing mechanisms of dialogue to strengthen its bilateral cooperation.

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The International Aspects of Vladimir Putin’s Re-election Campaign

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

In December, the campaign for president of Russia will officially begin in anticipation of the vote in March 2018. Vladimir Putin and his allies will use the tensions in Russia’s relations with the U.S. and the EU to build a climate of danger and to convince voters about the potential of interference in Russia’s electoral process. This will be Putin’s response to the concerns of Russians who see him as the guarantor of the security and international standing of the state.

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Strengthening Deterrence in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s development of its offensive capabilities in the Black Sea region could pose a threat to NATO. Yet Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey each have different perceptions of the threat, making it difficult for the Alliance to strengthen deterrence policy in the regional dimension. Although NATO is gradually adjusting its forces in response to the new strategic situation, the credibility of deterrence depends on the rotational presence of U.S. troops.

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S-400 dla Turcji. Eskalacja kryzysu w stosunkach turecko-amerykańskich

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): Polish

Na przełomie maja i czerwca w finałowe stadium realizacji wszedł kontrakt na zakup przez Turcję rosyjskich zestawów rakietowych obrony powietrznej dalekiego zasięgu S-400. Potwierdzają to zarówno zdecydowane deklaracje władz tureckich, jak też przeszkolenie w Rosji pierwszej grupy wojskowych (operatorzy systemu) i zapowiedź przyjazdu do Turcji rosyjskiego personelu technicznego odpowiedzialnego za montaż. Pierwsze zestawy S-400 mogą trafić do Turcji już w lipcu (przyspieszenie realizacji o około pół roku). Jednocześnie USA – które od lat blokowały tureckie próby zakupu systemów obrony powietrznej w Rosji i Chinach – eskalują presję na Turcję, w tym zapowiadają uruchomienie bezprecedensowych sankcji przygotowanych w ostatnim roku na wypadek realizacji kontraktu rosyjsko-tureckiego. Spór wokół S-400 jest przejawem narastającego od lat głębokiego kryzysu w stosunkach turecko-amerykańskich, a szerzej turecko-zachodnich i de facto oznacza jego istotne pogłębienie. Obustronny brak woli do ustępstw sprawia, że osiągnięcie kompromisu między Ankarą i Waszyngtonem należy uznać za mało prawdopodobne. Stawką są spójność NATO, obecny i przyszły charakter przywództwa USA i miejsce Turcji w relacjach z Zachodem i Rosją – tym samym pozycja Rosji zainteresowanej osłabieniem NATO i USA.

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