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The economic policy announced by Donald Trump, especially the introduction of restrictions on foreign trade and expansionary fiscal policy, raise many challenges for Germany’s economic interests. In response, Germany will seek to consolidate the European Union and strengthen its position in the global economy. It will not succeed without the rapid conclusion of disputes that weaken cooperation between Member States.
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On 13 November, Rumen Radev was elected president of Bulgaria. Supported by the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BPS), he received nearly 60% of the votes in the second round. He promises to strengthen cooperation with Russia and remains sceptical of NATO reinforcement in the Black Sea region. Tsetska Tsacheva, the candidate for the ruling party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), received 36% of the votes. Her loss brought with it the resignation of the Boyko Borisov government. GERB announced it would not participate in a new government coalition. BPS has limited ability to form a new coalition, meaning early parliamentary elections may take place at the beginning of 2017 and could further strengthen the pro-Russian parties.
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Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president has caused anxiety among Ukraine’s authorities, who expected victory for Hillary Clinton and are concerned about her opponent’s declarations regarding possible rapprochement between Washington, D.C. and Moscow. Still, President Petro Poroshenko and his associates will seek to establish close personal contacts and cooperation with the new U.S. administration. Ukrainian opposition parties, on the other hand, will aim to take advantage of Trump’s success to increase its own popularity and discredit Poroshenko.
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Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president has caused anxiety among Ukraine’s authorities, who expected victory for Hillary Clinton and are concerned about her opponent’s declarations regarding possible rapprochement between Washington, D.C. and Moscow. Still, President Petro Poroshenko and his associates will seek to establish close personal contacts and cooperation with the new U.S. administration. Ukrainian opposition parties, on the other hand, will aim to take advantage of Trump’s success to increase its own popularity and discredit Poroshenko.
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Regardless of recent reports of the possible re-militarisation of the Åland Islands, Finland will strengthen its ability to defend them, upholding the international agreements defining their special status. The key to the security of the archipelago will be military cooperation between Finland and Sweden. However, to enhance the credibility of deterrence of Russia in the region, including nuclear, more frequent exercises involving NATO countries, especially the U.S. and UK, will be required.
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Belgium’s Wallonia region has refused to accept CETA, the EU-Canada free trade agreement negotiated for the last seven years. Although Wallonia retains the option to endorse it in the future, it is unclear when and how that may happen. The rejection of the deal will decrease both the economic and political influence of the EU in the world.
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The offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s military, supported by Russian troops, on Aleppo—Syria’s largest city—might be successful. This large-scale operation was facilitated by the improved relations between Russia and Turkey and because the United States has only limited military options at its disposal. If Aleppo falls, Assad will have control over territory inhabited by more than 60% of Syrians. The brutality of the Russian attacks in Aleppo may, however, carry a political price in the form of new EU sanctions. The clearly harsher rhetoric of Germany, France and the U.S. toward Russia also shows that these countries will not compromise on Ukraine in return for Russian concessions in Syria.
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Staging military exercises which include certain offensive elements or deployment of ballistic missiles in direct proximity of a border of another state do not constitute a violation of the prohibition of the threat of force stipulated in Article 2, Para. 4 of the Charter of the United Nations. However, their legality could be questioned if they were accompanied by a demand of a certain conduct by other entities. It would be difficult to prove that Russian exercises held close to the borders of the members of NATO constitute a violation of said prohibition or any other treaty norms. Still, NATO member states should jointly assess Russian actions as to their compliance with the legal prohibition of threats of force as an instrument of the foreign policy.
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The military exercise “Kavkaz 2016” was the most important test this year of the combat readiness of the Russian Armed Forces. The scenarios carried out in recent months by Russia and Collective Security Treaty Organisation members included a clear political message addressed to neighbouring countries (namely Ukraine) and NATO members, evidenced by the location and scale of the manoeuvres. In “Kavkaz 2016,” the Russians demonstrated their ability to defend their hold on Crimea, occupied since 2014.
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In response to Russia’s nuclear threats, NATO has strengthened its nuclear deterrence. The Warsaw Summit aimed to send a message of resolve and readiness to face nuclear risks. The Alliance’s credibility depends, however, on its continued efforts in strategic communication, planning and exercises, and investment in maintaining effective capabilities.
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The G20 summit of the leaders of the biggest economies in the world was held in Hangzhou on 4–5 September. Despite ambitious plans, it did not deliver many tangible results. This could be a sign of the low effectiveness of the G20 in achieving long-term economic goals. Nevertheless, the group has succeeded in fighting international economic crises that have touched all of its members. Given the increase in global issues and the ambitions of emerging economies, G20 summits enable discussion of current economic as well as political topics.
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The failed coup in Turkey will have serious consequences for its domestic and foreign policy. It will lead to further consolidation of power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan, who will use the current situation to eliminate groups he finds to be disloyal among the prosecutor’s office, the army and elsewhere under the pretext of the fight against the Hizmet movement and its leader Fethullah Gülen, whom Erdoǧan blames for the coup attempt. In the foreign policy aspect, possible tensions in Turkey’s relations with the U.S. and the EU, which will criticise the Turkish authorities’ methods in their fight with their political opponents, may be expected. The weakening of the Euro-Atlantic ties may see Turkey move closer to other partners, including Russia.
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Donald Trump has won Republican primaries and is likely to be named the party’s official candidate for president of the United States at its convention in July. Polls indicate that he will have formidable chances to beat the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. In his statements Trump suggests that he would like to limit the role of the U.S. in Europe as well as American commitment to maintaining peace in the world. Attempts to find an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin could also be expected, as well as increased tensions in relations with China and the end of the United States’ pro-free trade agenda.
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Despite the City of London’s support for the UK remaining in the EU, financiers there are arguing about the impact of Brexit on the global role of the British financial centre. Regardless of whether the United Kingdom exits the EU or not, any further increase in the City’s importance will depend primarily on its competitiveness against emerging markets and the economic situation in the UK.
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On 26 April, the Supreme Court of Crimea banned the Majlis, the representation of Crimean Tatars, recognising it as an extremist organisation. Thus, Russia has eliminated opposition activity by the Crimean Tatars, replacing the Majlis with Russian-created structures that present the façade of representing the Tatar community. The growing Russian repression means that an entire ethnic group, which was persecuted in the days of the Soviet Union, is threatened. This implies the need for support from the international community by, among other things, monitoring the actions of the Russian authorities and condemning repression.
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The escalation of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh was caused by Azerbaijan. The authorities there want to use the conflict to distract its population from impending economic collapse and worsening living conditions as a result of the falling price of oil. The resumption of fighting has resulted in an increase in nationalist sentiments on both sides. Russia may indeed be effective in reducing the tension on both sides of the conflict, but for internal reasons it also may be interested in further escalation.
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The Swedish counter-intelligence service’s latest annual assessments highlight the growing interest of Russian intelligence in Sweden’s national security issues. Soon after the publication of the unclassified version of the report, a series of cyberattacks on Swedish media took place. The increase in hostile Russian intelligence activities has been seen as connected to a public debate about the prospects for closer relations between Sweden and NATO. The U.S. perception of the Russian threats presented by Sweden’s counter-intelligence services does not deviate from public assessments by other Scandinavian countries’ assessments. This might suggest that the increased Russian activities are part of some broader strategy concerning Northern Europe.
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Five years after the downfall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, Libya is the second most-destabilised Arab state after Syria, with multiple local centres of power, some 2,000 militias in intertwined conflict, a growing people-smuggling market and expanding terrorist organisations, namely Al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State. Located just 450 km from Europe’s shores, Libya may this year become the new centre of operations for jihadist movements, elevating the terrorist threat to Europe, as well as a major migration route should the process of forming a national unity government under the auspices of the UN fail and the Eastern Mediterranean route via Turkey and Greece be shut down.
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Regional cooperation initiatives are one of Latin American countries’ main policy tools. They have served to foster the development of member states, build common trust, and strengthen their international position. For Poland, the significance of some of the groupings mainly results from their status as EU partners. The main blocs are Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance—both include Poland’s main trading partners in the region—as well as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which represents the whole region in strategic partnership with the EU.
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With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.
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