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№79: Eurozone Enlargement Frozen: The Deepening Crevasse between Central Europe and the EU

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

As of 2015, the eurozone has been the same for a long time. Central European “pre-ins” will not join the eurozone quickly because some simply are not willing and others are unable to do so. The resulting friction not only will impact the economic situation of both the existing members and “pre-ins” but also will produce tensions in the other fields, eventually leading to a negative state of division between the sceptical newcomers and the better-integrated Old Europe.

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№61: Współpraca regionalna kluczem do strategicznego partnerstwa Polski i Chin

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska,Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): Polish

Podpisanie w 2011 r. deklaracji o strategicznym partnerstwie między Polską i Chinami świadczy o coraz lepszych i intensywniejszych relacjach tych państw. Jednak aby w pełni wykorzystać ten potencjał, nie wystarczą działania na szczeblu centralnym. Najwięcej możliwości praktycznego pogłębiania współpracy oferują bowiem polskie i chińskie władze lokalne. Dlatego polskie samorządy powinny zacieśnić relacje z zachodnimi regionami Chin, w większym stopniu zastosować istniejące już narzędzia, takie jak bezpośrednie połączenia kolejowe, umowy partnerskie czy biura regionalne, oraz położyć nacisk na to, by korzyści z partnerstwa były obustronne.

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№61: Regional Cooperation Key to Polish–Chinese Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska,Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Upgrading Polish–Chinese relations to a strategic partnership in 2011 became a symbol of closer cooperation between the two countries. However, the relations at the top level are not sufficient to exploit the full potential of the partnership. The local administration is best positioned to stimulate the development of practical cooperation. Hence, Polish local governments should pursue closer relations with China’s western regions, use existing tools (direct railway connections, partnership agreements, regional offices) more effectively, and advocate cooperation based on mutual benefits.

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№57: Granica w czasach Schengen: szanse i wyzwania polsko-czeskiej współpracy transgranicznej

Author(s): Vít Dostál,Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): Polish

Chociaż tereny przy granicy Polski i Czech charakteryzują się podobnym poziomem rozwoju gospodarczego oraz bliskością kulturową i językową, wciąż istnieją liczne ograniczenia, które utrudniają porozumienie między obydwoma sąsiadami. Problemem są nie tylko bariery infrastrukturalne, ale także podziały natury mentalnej i historycznej. Eksperci Polskiego Instytutu Spraw Międzynarodowych i czeskiego Stowarzyszenia Spraw Międzynarodowych, którzy przeanalizowali najważniejsze szanse i wyzwania związane z dialogiem transgranicznym, sugerują większe niż do tej pory zaangaŻowanie władz centralnych i lokalnych w przełamywanie barier między krajami.

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№57: Hranice v dobách Schengenu: příležitosti a výzvy česko-polské přeshraniční spolupráce

Author(s): Vít Dostál,Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): Czech

Ačkoli se území podél hranic Polska a České republiky vyznačuje podobnou úrovní hospodářského rozvoje a kulturní a jazykovou blízkostí, stále existují četná omezení, která brání dohodě mezi oběma sousedy. Problémem nejsou pouze překážky v oblasti infrastruktury, ale také odlišná mentalita či výklad dějinných událostí. Experti Polského institutu pro mezinárodní otázky (PISM) a Asociace pro mezinárodní otázky (AMO), kteří analyzovali nejdůležitější příležitosti a výzvy spojené s přeshraničním dialogem, naznačují, že odhodlání ústředních a místních orgánů zapojit se do překonávání bariér mezi zeměmi může být větší než doposud.

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№53: Linking National and European Governance: Lessons for Poland and Norway

Author(s): Jakub Godzimirski,Agata Gostyńska,Pernille Rieker,Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English

Influencing the EU’s governance poses both a challenge and an opportunity to mid-size countries like Poland and Norway. As an analytical approach, “experimentalist governance”—with its focus on the utility of learning in a multilevel system—should offer both countries clues about influencing the European regime. Yet, the relevance of the theory to policy areas of most interest to both countries— security, energy and migration—remains unclear. As part of the GoodGov project, this paper assesses the applicability of experimentalist learning to these three fields and highlights the need for both countries to strengthen horizontal cooperation with state and non-state actors if they are to exploit it.

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№52: V4–Latin America and the Caribbean States: New Partners?

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

In a crisis-hit and multipolar world, non-traditional partners have started to partner up. For the V4 and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) states, renewed interest in the economic sphere has not translated yet into an expansion of bilateral relations in other areas. To intensify cooperation, the V4 countries could think on increasing political dialogue with specific countries (e.g., Brazil, Mexico) or subregional groupings (e.g., Mercosur or the Pacific Alliance) and invest more in “track-two” diplomacy, which is generally a low-cost but high-return investment. The prospects for further intensification of relations suggest the dynamically developing LAC countries are potentially interesting partners for political, economic and scientific cooperation for members of the V4.

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№50: Zakarpattia: A New Powder Keg in Ukraine?

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English

Some features of Ukraine’s southwestern Zakarpattia Oblast—geographical exclusivity, poor historical links with Ukrainian statehood, independence of local politicians, and ethnic groups’ aspirations for autonomy—could suggest similarities to Crimea. However, a key factor that rules out a repeat of the Crimean scenario is the limited influence of Russia in the oblast. It does not mean that the region is not exposed to any decentralization movements. It seems that now the biggest challenge to the central government in Kyiv regarding Zakarpattia are the ambitions of local elites who have both sufficient financial independence and political tools in the form of non-regulated Hungarian and Ruthenian issues to take part, in the most pessimistic assumption, in the region’s destabilization.

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№49: Towards a More Energy Independent EU: Exploiting Indigenous Potential in the Gas Sector

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered anxiety in the EU over the stability of gas imports from its main supplier, Russia. Improving the EU’s self-sufficiency in terms of energy has already been indicated in the recent European Energy Security Strategy (EESS). Therefore, the EU should realise that it must not only diversify its gas supplies sources, but also exploit indigenous energy sources and develop up to date gas technologies. In the longer term, these efforts could contribute visibly to the EU’s energy security, and to its economic competitiveness, but they do require significant financial investment and firm commitment.

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№41: Understanding EU Action during “Euromaidan:” Lessons for the Next Phase

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

During Euromaidan, a lack of cohesion between Member States left the EU pursuing a basic “tipping point” approach: rather than offering Ukraine a large-scale transformation package, the EU tried to apply targeted pressure on the players involved (Moscow, Washington, Ukraine’s politicians and society), and to tip each onto a positive course. The approach was weak, and only last-minute political intervention from a trio of Member States prevented Ukraine’s wholesale descent into chaos and violent repression. Analysis of the political dynamics behind this fragmented response should, however, allow the EU to take a more coherent position, on Ukraine and in the wider region, in the future. Poland is well-placed to lead that approach.

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№38: Europe and Its Institutions: Towards a Renewed Polish Approach to the EU

Author(s): Agata Gostyńska,Roderick Parkes / Language(s): English

Poland seems on the cusp of winning for itself the status of a leading EU Member State. Over the course of the sovereign-debt crisis, it has successfully held its own in an increasingly intergovernmental EU. That now creates a temptation to ditch its traditional “hedging” approach to the European Commission and Parliament and strike out more on its own. Yet, Poland’s real success in this intergovernmental EU has been in securing the continued openness of EU rules and the integrity of its institutions. Since Poland is still at risk of being sidelined by exclusive forms of intergovernmental cooperation, it needs to find ways to renew the protective influence of the bloc’s supranational institutions rather than to abandon them.

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№37: Return to the Future: France’s New Flirtation with Afro-Realism

Author(s): Nathan Dufour / Language(s): English

France’s latest bout of interventionism in Africa in 2013 (Mali, Central African Republic) has led to harsh internal public scrutiny of Françafrique and its strategic rationale. France’s continued economic and security role in Sub-Saharan areas is out of step with its limited ability to sustain a standalone approach. To answer this shortfall, France appears more than ever committed to a multilateralisation of its actions, not least through a Europeanisation and Africanisation of its historical responsibilities in Africa. Its approach is likely to strengthen Africa’s status as a focus of European Security and Defence Policy and may push Poland to initiate a strategic reflection of its own interests in that part of the world.

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№35: Copper Opens the Way to a New Beginning in Polish–Chilean Relations

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

Even though Poland and Chile have not been priority partners for each other in the past, a recent investment by Polish mining company KGHM in Chile could be a game-changer. Cooperation on copper production may form the grounds for the further development of economic and scientific ties, and for stimulating people-to-people contacts.

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№22: Not As Smart As It Could Be: the NATO Smart Defence Initiative—Chicago and Beyond

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Prompted by austerity-driven cuts in defence budgets and calls by the U.S. to distribute the burden for common defence more evenly across the Atlantic, for the last 15 months NATO members have been developing the Smart Defence Initiative. Launched by Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in February 2011, the initiative aims to “pool and share capabilities, to set the right priorities, and to better coordinate our efforts”. In other words, it is about seeking opportunities for more intense and cost-effective defence cooperation amongst the Allies. The NATO summit in Chicago delivered the first results as a multitude of cooperative projects was endorsed by the Allies in the so-called “Chicago Defence Package”. It involves the exchange of experiences and lessons learnt, joint education and training of forces, the bundling of military assets such as airplanes, as well as joint NATO-wide investment programmes to develop state-of-the-art defence systems.

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№18: Shades of Grey: Poland’s Example for a Middle East in Transition

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

It is not at all clear if or how a country’s experience in systemic transition—from authoritarian to democratic rule—can serve as a lesson to another country in transition. Positivists would claim the 20th century provides a plethora of examples about how to conduct a transition. Sceptics would point at differences in each and every case: in the character and condition of the economy, a lack of adequate political structures or different cultural and historic backgrounds. Tunisia and Egypt, however, are at this extremely precarious point where they will understandably want to make decisions on their own but will be at the same time looking carefully at the experience and competence of others because the democratization process inevitably requires many practical solutions.

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№15: Strategic Vacuum in Central Asia—a Case for European Engagement?

Author(s): Tomasz Sikorski / Language(s): English

An interesting phenomenon in Central Asia—Halford Mackinder’s pivotal area of the heartland—can be observed. The great political powers, when it comes to action in the region, seem to lack power at all. The U.S. assigns all its attention to the war in Afghanistan. Russia, painfully hit by the economic crisis, recognises that it is terribly difficult to rebuild its erstwhile zone of influence. Also China is not warmly welcomed in the region. What is then left? It seems that in the foreseeable future Central Asia is not going to be a scene of the so-called New Great Game. On the contrary, the region will be somewhat abandoned by the main political powers. The purpose of this paper is to prove the abandonment thesis, predict what is going to happen and propose recommendations for the European Union to act effectively in the new situation.

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№11: A Broker, not a Banker: How the EU Can Help the Middle East Peace Process

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The peace process in the Middle East is about to collapse. When at the beginning of 2009 it seemed that the major force – the United States – was coming back into play, expectations rose. However, 11 months into Barack Obama’s presidency there is little, if any, hope left that the strategy of the new American administration can wield any positive results. This diplomatic standstill is detrimental to the international community’s interests because it serves extremists and, if sustained, could soon lead to an escalation of tensions. The US, weakened by the economic crisis and intensely engaged in Afghanistan, would benefit from renewed involvement by the European Union. The way forward in the Middle East peace process is to bring additional mediators onto the field to act in concert with the US. There are no guarantees of success, but so far the EU’s potential to impact the Middle Eastern situation has never been seriously tested.

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№8: South Caucasus – the Case for Joint Commitment of Turkey and the EU

Author(s): Adam Szymański / Language(s): English

Turkey, despite many constraints, is attempting to play a more active role in the South Caucasus. Hence, it has become an important partner for the European Union, whose interest in the region has been growing over time. While a number of problems remain, Turkey and the EU can work together towards reaching the shared goal of creating an area of security in the South Caucasus, an outcome instrumental to the development of economic projects (with a special emphasis on energy issues).

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Viktor Orbán’s Fourth Government at the Halfway Point

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The opposition’s good results in the 2019 local elections did not weaken the government of Viktor Orbán. On the European stage, the extended suspension of the ruling party Fidesz’s membership in the European People’s Party (EPP) allowed it to avoid an escalation of its dispute with the EPP. Due to the foreseen economic slowdown, the government will focus in the remaining two years until the election on the permanent mobilisation of its electorate. In its European policy, it is preparing for both a split with the EPP and remaining in the EU mainstream. Similar views of Hungary and France on the EU’s future relations with Russia and the U.S. facilitate the fulfilment of the second scenario.

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Czwarty rząd Viktora Orbána na półmetku

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): Polish

Dobry wynik opozycji w wyborach samorządowych w 2019 r. nie osłabił rządu Viktora Orbána. Na scenie europejskiej przedłużenie zawieszenia w prawach członka w Europejskiej Partii Ludowej (EPL) pozwoliło Fideszowi uniknąć eskalacji sporu z tą partią. W związku z prognozą spowolnienia gospodarczego w dwóch latach pozostałych do wyborów rząd skupi się na ciągłej mobilizacji swojego elektoratu. W polityce europejskiej przygotowuje się zarówno na zerwanie z EPL, jak i na pozostanie w mainstreamie UE. Zbieżności w spojrzeniu Węgier i Francji m.in. na przyszłość stosunków UE z Rosją czy USA ułatwiają realizację drugiego scenariusza.

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