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№83: Schengen’s Future in Light of the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The EU actions to secure the border between Greece and Turkey in order to restrain the flow of migrants face several limitations. In this light, the increased and uncontrolled flow of immigrants into the EU has prompted some Member States to call for restoring EU internal borders up to two years. This solution does not mean dismantling the Schengen zone, but modification of Schengen for security reasons, which would not threaten the European project.

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№78: Time to Put Hungary on the EU’s Refugee Agenda

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Paradoxically, there is both a real crisis and a false alarm in Hungary when it comes to refugees. Yet, the first is over-shadowed by the second because the government’s campaign is mistakenly targeted at all immigrants, without regard to asylum seekers. This not only limits efforts invested in effective crisis management measures but also produces long-term harm in social attitudes towards foreigners. At the same time, the Hungarian claims for more attention and support from the EU are legitimate. If the debate in Brussels continues to be limited only to Italy and Greece, the EU will tacitly allow the situation along the Balkans route to worsen, with consequences for the whole Union.

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№63: European Energy Security in the Wake of the Russia–Ukraine Crisis

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

Russia’s confrontational approach towards Ukraine and the West has made energy security bells ring in many European capitals and in Brussels. This is perfectly understandable because Russia is the most important external supplier of energy to the EU, and Ukraine is the country through which more than 50 per cent of Russian gas destined for the EU is shipped. The EU learnt earlier, in 2006 and 2009, how tensions in gas relations between Russia and Ukraine may influence the situation on the European gas market. This time, however, the EU is on course to change its energy policy and relations with Russia, in order to enhance its security and limit the possibility of energy blackmail.

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№54: Russian Conservative Reawakening

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Conservatism has re-emerged in Russian political discourse. It was largely employed by President Vladimir Putin to re-assert himself on the domestic stage in the volatile post-election political environment in 2011–2012 and later to legitimise asymmetrical warfare against Ukraine. However, the conservative upsurge threatens the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia’s other neighbours as well. Moreover, it represents a normative challenge for the EU, and one that requires a powerful answer based on a renewed long-term strategy towards Russia. Not the least, while helping President Putin hold onto power, the conservative turn poisons Russian society, undermines the country’s economy and isolates Russia from the rest of world.

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№51: Careful What You Wish For: Nuclear Reductions and Conventional Deterrence in Europe after Crimea

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

As NATO contemplates changes in its deterrence posture amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, questions regarding the relationship between the Alliance’s nuclear and conventional dimensions have gained importance. Some experts propose that the Allies should spend their scarce funds on conventional instruments of deterrence rather than on the U.S. nuclear weapons based in Europe. Still, the suggested shift of emphasis from nuclear to conventional would not be that easy to implement. Even with U.S. nuclear weapons removed from Europe, strengthening conventional deterrence in parallel could result in Russia increasing its reliance on its own nuclear weapons and bringing them closer to Alliance territory, further destabilising European security. Therefore, NATO should avoid making radical changes in its nuclear posture and concentrate on a calibrated beef-up of its nonnuclear presence along the eastern flank.

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№46: Split Three Ways on Ukraine: Turkey in a Changing Regional Order

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

With its low-level involvement in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ankara repeated its customary formula of refraining from disrupting relations with Moscow, but also sought to maximise the benefits from its position, in order to recover its declining power. Yet this is not a voluntary strategy, so much as an effort by Turkey to make the best of a bad hand. The crisis between Russia and the West affects Turkey’s security concerns, economic interests and wider domestic and foreign policy ambitions. Although non-involvement has so far carried few direct costs, Turkey needs to leverage its low-profile position, not least to ensure NATO solidarity, and indeed might soften its position in internal NATO debates. And yet this might in turn create a new conflict of interests: Turkey needs to maintain its soft power capacities, not least in order to hook into the EU, while the EU needs to deepen Turkey’s integration in order to develop a cohesive answer to the new circumstances.

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№44: After Ukraine: Are Russia and Belarus Ripe for Revolution?

Author(s): Liudmyla Datskova,Anna Maria Dyner,Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English

The revolution that rocked Ukraine and removed President Yanukovych from power at the beginning of 2014 has raised the question of whether similar revolutionary moods are present in Russia and Belarus. The likelihood of civil disobedience in these countries is related to the similarities and differences between their societies, the presence or not of motivations comparable to those that led Ukrainians to protest on Maidan Square in Kyiv, the perception or not of real potential alternatives to presidents Putin and Lukashenka, as well as their economic prospects. Ultimately, it seems, all these factors indicate revolution is not to be expected in Moscow or Minsk anytime soon.

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№43: When Symmetric and Asymmetric Threats Converge—A New (and Grim) Prospect for NATO

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Terrorism has never disappeared from NATO’s list of security concerns. Nonetheless, its stature visibly diminished in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden and the notional end of the so called Global War on Terror. In early 2014, however, the Alliance is faced with a different type of terrorism that seems to have morphed into an element of a traditional, territorial threat as it emanates from two entities situated on NATO’s eastern border: the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in the South-East, which launches terrorist operatives into Turkey, and the Russian Federation, which utilised asymmetric means to annex Crimea and now stands accused of exporting terrorism to Ukraine. NATO’s Eastern members are now concerned with the threat that Russia may use similar means, including terrorism, in order to foment instability on their territories, and the Alliance should now enhance its capabilities in helping them respond to it.

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№36: Trade Agreements across the Atlantic: What Lessons from CETA for TTIP?

Author(s): Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English

Negotiations are ongoing for two of the most significant trade and investment agreements that the European Union has ever entered into. Both the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the U.S. are set to be ambitious agreements, and are already causing controversy beyond the limits of the negotiating table. Given that the CETA talks are more advanced, they can provide some valuable and much-needed insight for TTIP, both in terms of process and substance. Nevertheless there are some issues, linked to the heftier geopolitical weight of TTIP, that CETA cannot help resolve.

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№31: Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Opportunities for Polish Companies

Author(s): Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English

Africa is rising, and attracting investment flows from around the world—particularly from emerging markets. Despite some ongoing risks, the investment climate is improving, and returns on investments can be substantial. Polish companies, whose trade and investments focus almost exclusively on the EU, would do well to explore Sub-Saharan markets, particularly in countries with a Polish presence and which display political stability, economic growth, and an attractive investment climate. Promising sectors for Polish investment include natural resource extraction, infrastructure, ICT, agriculture and services. In order to boost Polish investment in Africa, Poland’s government should optimise its presence on the continent and extend its existing economic programmes there. Polish companies should establish a physical presence, seek out investment niches, get to know the African investment climate and adapt to local specificities.

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№21: Poland-India: Potential for a Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The intensity and quality of political and economic cooperation between Poland and India have not reached their full potential in the past 20 years, despite largely positive historical relations between these nations. Both are among the top twenty world economies, and are among the political leaders in their respective regions, so Poland and India must now explore ways to upgrade bilateral cooperation in the emerging multi-polar world. The success of economic transformations initiated in the early 90s, and stable economic growth experienced in both countries in recent years despite the global financial crisis, alongside the growing political influence of Poland in the European Union on the one hand and India’s rise on the world stage on the other, suggest a complementary relationship between these countries and promise extra benefits from closer links. The idea of a strategic partnership – an instrument deliberately employed in both countries’ foreign policies in recent years – now deserves to be given serious consideration in New Delhi and Warsaw.

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№17: Institutions and Externalities: Two EU Strategic Dilemmas

Author(s): Leszek Jesień / Language(s): English

The European Union is at a turning point in the process of the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty. Assuming a calming of EU internal economic affairs (the euro and the fiscal crises), it may gradually enter the path towards real EU responsibility on a global stage, of course within the limited competence given by the treaty. For member states, it may indicate a need to adapt to a new way of exercising political leadership within the EU, as well as a necessity to introduce changes in the operation of their administrations and procedures used for the sake of their foreign policies.

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№9: New Lisbon Strategy after 2010: Governance Reform

Author(s): Marcin Koczor / Language(s): English

The year 2010 will mark the end of a 10-year implementation period of the Lisbon Strategy (LS), which in the meantime has undergone a series of changes, both in terms of its scope and its implementation structure. The LS’s original version was flawed due to a plethora of largely incoherent goals, an unclear division of responsibilities among the various entities involved, and an inefficient implementation structure. All these factors affected the Lisbon Agenda’s poor results after its initial five years, which led to its re-launch in 2005.

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№7: Reduce US Nukes in Europe to Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and Nuclear). A View from Poland

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

The nuclear dimension of NATO is rarely front page news, and this is no less the case in Poland than it is in other member states. While prominent as the central subject of a number of heated intra-Alliance debates during the Cold War, in recent years the question of nuclear weapons has disappeared from the NATO agenda, dominated as it is by issues of enlargement, military transformation, and the Alliance’s increasing involvement in out-of-area operations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of the citizenry of all NATO countries would be surprised to learn of the existence of any nuclear element in the Alliance, including the citizens of those European allies whose air forces have been training to drop US-made thermonuclear gravity bombs in wartime.

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№5: Syria-Israel Talks: High Stakes and Low Expectations

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Following more than a year of behind-the-scenes contacts, on May 21, both Syria and Israel as well as their facilitator Turkey made an identically worded announcement of the resumption of indirect talks between the conflicted parties. Syria, a key actor in major regional conflicts, and Israel, the greatest military power in the Middle East, did not suddenly decide to make peace. Having calculated all pros and cons, they came to the conclusion that indirect talks are what would best serve each of their interests, both internally and internationally. It was pragmatism and cold calculation, as usual. The same guiding principle applies to the continuation and results of the talks. Ultimately, Syria will be interested in sustaining this process as long as there are prospects for American involvement, whereas Israel will seek a more cooperative Syrian role in the region. It remains to be seen whether each party’s decision is of a strategic or a tactical character, but it nevertheless marks a conspicuous change in each country’s foreign policy. For the most part these changes are driven by the new dynamics in the Middle East: a reshuffling of alliances, a relocation of focal points and a change of tactics. The indirect talks require the EU’s participation in order to keep the momentum going until the new American administration decides on the merits of its direct engagement in brokering peace.

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№1: EU External Energy Policy – Between Market and Strategic Interests

Author(s): Ernest Wyciszkiewicz / Language(s): English

The EU external energy policy is still in the making and the ultimate outcome is as yet uncertain. The process was launched by the European Commission in 2006 under the catchy slogan “to speak with one voice” on issues regarding relations with the major oil and gas producers, consumers and transit countries. In order to reach this ambitious goal two obvious preconditions will need to be met: (1) achieving genuine coherence between the relatively well-developed internal and the underdeveloped external aspects of energy policy, and (2) overcoming national discrepancies to allow member states to internalize Community objectives and interests. True unity does not depend on intergovernmental political consensus solely. Many technical, physical, economic, regulatory and legal conditions regarding the shape of the energy system and the market have to be met as well. That is why a well-functioning, competitive internal market is seen as a prerequisite for the emergence of a real external energy policy. Equally important is the establishment of an effective common foreign policy within the EU governed by a proper institutional and legal framework. Otherwise, any effort to integrate policies where national interests prevail would inevitably fail. The likely result would be an imitative policy based on the lowest common denominator, and sensitive and troublesome issues would be put aside.

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Russia and COVID-19

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Since only mid-March, the official number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus in Russia began to rise significantly. The impending crisis has accelerated the ruling elite’s decision to allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to stand again in the presidential election in 2024. But the likelihood of worsening economic situation because of the pandemic will make it difficult for Putin to fulfil his social-spending promises and may soften public support for the proposed constitutional changes. At the same time, Russia will use the pandemic to try to weaken the EU and NATO to get sanctions lifted.

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Rosja wobec pandemii COVID-19

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

W Rosji dopiero od połowy marca br. oficjalna liczba zakażonych wirusem SARS-CoV-2 zaczęła wyraźnie rosnąć. Zbliżający się kryzys związany z epidemią przyspieszył decyzję elity władzy o umożliwieniu Władimirowi Putinowi ponownego kandydowania w wyborach prezydenckich w 2024 r. Nadchodzące problemy gospodarcze, które utrudnią Putinowi spełnienie obietnic socjalnych, mogą osłabić społeczne poparcie dla proponowanych zmian w konstytucji. Jednocześnie Rosja będzie starała się wykorzystać sytuację wokół pandemii do osłabienia UE i NATO oraz zniesienia sankcji.

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Economic Challenges for Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Overdependence on cheap Russian energy resources, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lack of reform are the biggest challenges that could lead to the collapse of the Belarusian economy. Russia may use economic problems to make Belarus more dependent on it. Poland, other EU countries and the U.S. can support the Belarusian authorities in diversifying sources of crude oil supplies, negotiations on joining the World Trade Organisation, and possible efforts to obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

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Gospodarcze wyzwania dla Białorusi

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Zbytnie uzależnienie od tanich rosyjskich surowców energetycznych, pandemia COVID-19 oraz brak reform mogą doprowadzić do załamania białoruskiej gospodarki. Rosja może wykorzystać problemy ekonomiczne Białorusi do jeszcze większego uzależnienia jej od siebie. Natomiast Polska, inne państwa UE oraz USA mogą wspierać białoruskie władze w dywersyfikacji źródeł dostaw ropy naftowej, a także wspomóc proces negocjacyjny w sprawie przystąpienia do Światowej Organizacji Handlu oraz ewentualne starania tego państwa o pozyskanie kredytu z Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego.

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