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House Burnings: Obstruction of the Right to Return to Drvar

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

On the night of 2-3 May 1997, some 25 houses were set ablaze in the Croat-controlled municipality of Drvar, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation). The arsons occurred after an international delegation headed by Federation mediator Dr Christian Schwarz-Schilling met with local authorities and other international agencies earlier in the day to discuss the return of displaced Serbs to the area. With this report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) hopes to contribute to the international community’s as well as Bosnian authorities’ efforts to ascertain the facts surrounding the May incident, responsibility thereof, and suggests additional measures to prevent future such incidents.

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Dayton: Two Years On. A Review of Progress in Implementing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The about-turn in international policy is, in part, a product of the change in government in Britain as well as the appointment of Madeleine Albright as US Secretary of State. It also reflects a realisation that NATO forces will only be able to make a dignified withdrawal from Bosnia and Herzegovina once the groundwork for a lasting peace has been laid. Maintaining a cease-fire for two and a half years and holding elections is simply not enough to prevent the country from slipping back into war as soon as international peacekeepers pull out. While the more robust international approach to implementing the DPA has begun to pay dividends, it has also highlighted the magnitude of the remaining task necessary to rebuild Bosnia and Herzegovina after four years of war.

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A Peace, or just a Cease-Fire? The military Equation in Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper concerns three military topics that are seldom raised in relation to one another but that cannot meaningfully be assessed in isolation. Taken together, they are likely to have a decisive effect on the future of the DPA: the balance of military forces among the former combatants on a sub-regional level; the US-sponsored Train and Equip programme; and the NATO exit strategy. The balance of military forces among the former combatants, including the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and Croatia, has been the focus of a sub-regional arms reduction process monitored by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Levels were set at a ratio of 5:2:2, based on the approximate size of the populations of FRY, Croatia and Bosnia, further divided on a 2:1 ratio between the Federation and Republika Srpska. On 21 November 1997, the OSCE announced that all four parties had met their reduction liabilities by the 31 October deadline. Republika Srpska and the FRY destroyed the most weapons but remained at or near the allowed ceilings, since they had by far the largest excess of weapons at the start of the process. The Federation was only required to destroy artillery.

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A HOLLOW PROMISE? The Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In Bosnia’s local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.

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REBUILDING A MULTI-ETHNIC SARAJEVO: The Need for Minority Returns

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina’s rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, ist citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace. (ICG Bosnia Project - Report No 30)

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Brcko: What Bosnia Could Be

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The fate of the Brčko area, whether it should be in the Federation or Republika Srpska, was considered too contentious to be resolved in the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and was left to binding arbitration. The Arbitral Tribunal announced an interim decision on 14 February 1997: the Tribunal retained jurisdiction on the matter for another year; maintained the territorial status quo leaving the Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL) which divides the pre-war municipality; enumerated obligations for the parties to fulfil, including the return and reintegration of displaced person and the establishment of a multi-ethnic administration in part of the municipality held by Republika Srpska; provided for the establishment of the office of an International Supervisor to oversee the implementation of those obligations; and conditioned the final outcome of the arbitration on the conduct of the parties during the year. The Tribunal is scheduled to give a final ruling by 15 March this year

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KOSOVO SPRING (ICG Report Pristina- Sarajevo)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The report examines the evolution of relations between Serbs and Kosovars in Kosovo, the importance of the region to both communities and their competing claims. Since 1989 when Serbia forcibly stripped Kosovo of autonomy, a parallel Kosovar society has emerged within the province which exists almost completely outside the Serbian state. The report assesses the significance and sustainability of the parallel institutions, in particular the education and health care systems. It also critically analyses Kosovar politics and the policies of the undisputed Kosovar leader Ibrahim Rugova who charted the non-violent course which, until very recently, all Kosovars obediently followed. If Kosovar elections do go ahead as scheduled on 22 March, Rugova will surely be re-elected president, since he is the only candidate standing. Special sections are devoted to the economy, media and the Kosovo Liberation Army, UCK. The report considers Kosovo in its regional context, in relations to Serbia, Yugoslavia, Albania and the entire Balkan region. It examines initial diplomatic attempts to head off further fighting and find a solution. And it analyses the relative merits of the various solutions -- ranging from maintaining the status quo to full independence -- which are currently on offer. In a final section ICG presents a series of recommendations which, if taken up by policy-makers, could contribute to an eventual settlement in Kosovo. Appendices at the end include a chronology and a who’s who of Kosovo political life.

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Minority Return or Mass Relocation? (ICG Bosnia Project - Report Nº 33)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

International organisations working to help displaced Bosnians return to their pre-war homes -- arguably the most important element of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) -- have declared 1998 the “year of minority returns”. Four months into the year, however, there is the distinct possibility that 1998 may instead prove to be the “year of mass relocation”. This need not be the case. The political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has shifted in recent months and, despite major setbacks, including in Drvar, minority return success stories are already beginning to emerge. In order to turn the current trickle of minority returns into a steady flow, the lessons of past failures and successes have to be learned.

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THE KONJIC CONUNDRUM: Why Minorities have failed to return to Model Open City

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR’s approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.

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THE VIEW FROM TIRANA. The Albanian Dimension of the Kosovo Crisis (ICG Balkans Report No. 36)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania’s isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.

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THE ALBANIAN QUESTION IN MACEDONIA: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia (ICG Balkans Report N° 38)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country’s very existence may be imperilled.

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CHANGING COURSE?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics (ICG Balkans Report N° 39)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman. Long-standing divisions between those who emphasise western Herzegovina and those who wish to secure the future of Croats throughout Bosnia have led to a split in the HDZBiH and the formation of the New Croat Initiative (Nova Hrvatska inicijativa or NHI), led by the Croat member of the joint Bosnian presidency, Kresimir Zubak. The rift in the HDZBiH widened after the death, at the beginning of May 1998, of the Croatian defence minister, Gojko Susak, which left the HDZBiH without a figure with the authority to hold together its different strands. At the HDZBiH congress in May 1998, the party's hard-liners, against Tudjman's wishes, secured the election of the Bosnian Federation's defence minister, Ante Jelavic, as party president, defeating the comparatively moderate candidate favoured by Zubak, Bozo Ljubic.

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IMPUNITY IN DRVAR (ICG Balkans Report N° 40)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar -- whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb -- offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia. In the wake of the riots, key international officials flocked to Drvar, among them High Representative Carlos Westendorp and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, General Wesley Clark, as well as the heads of most of the international organisations in Bosnia, and even several US Congressmen. All stated emphatically that violence was unacceptable, that the right of Serbs to return would be supported, and that those responsible would be brought to justice.

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KOSOVO’S LONG HOT SUMMER: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report No.41)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report examines the evolution of the UCK, its genesis, military fortunes, political impact and prospects. It considers the current humanitarian crisis. And it analyses the internal dynamics of ethnic Albanian politics in and concerning Kosovo and their impact on the options that the international community may contemplate to promote a political solution to the conflict.

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INTERMEDIATE SOVEREIGNTY AS A BASIS FOR RESOLVING THE KOSOVO CRISIS (A Discussion Paper - ICG Balkans Report N°46)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group. The legal analysis contained in this report is significant because it sets out the legal arguments that differentiate the Kosovo Albanians’ claim to independence from those of other minority groups in the region. By reference to the constitution of the former Yugoslavia, recognized principles of international law and legal precedent expressed in decisions of the International Court of Justice and various international treaties, the authors argue that independence for Kosovo would not necessarily create a dangerous precedent for the rest of the region.

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SANDZAK: CALM FOR NOW (ICG Balkans Report N°48)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic’s continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.

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BREAKING THE LOGJAM: REFUGEE RETURNS TO CROATIA (ICG Balkans Report N°49)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The position Croatia's Serbs has long been contentious. Croat nationalists have often seen the Croatian Serbs as a Trojan Horse that has been used to undermine Croatia, with the aim of carving out pieces of Croatian territory and joining them to a Greater Serbian state. In communist times there was widespread Croat resentment at perceived advantages afforded to Serbs in Croatian party bodies and institutions. Serbs for their part derived many advantages from Croatia's inclusion in Yugoslavia, which placed them in a wider union bringing together Serb communities throughout Yugoslavia. The nationalist euphoria with which most Croats greeted the assertion of Croatian sovereignty and independence in 1990- 91 caused anxiety and insecurity among Serbs which, manipulated by the Serbian leadership in Belgrade, led to an armed rebellion in regions in which Serbs formed a significant proportion of the population, and the expulsion of most Croats from those regions. Croatia's reconquest of most of those regions in 1995 met with international disapproval, due to the mass Serb exodus which it prompted and widespread atrocities against the few who remained.

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TO BUILD A PEACE: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE MADRID PEACE IMPLEMENTATION COUNCIL MEETING (ICG Balkans Report N°52)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Three years after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the country has many of the trappings usually associated with statehood such as a common flag, currency, vehicle licence plate and passport. However, these and other breakthroughs have generally required disproportionate amounts of time and effort on the part of the international community and have all too often been rammed through in spite of Bosnia’s domestic institutions. Despite visible progress towards many of the goals contained within the DPA, therefore, Bosnia’s peace still gives the impression that it is built on shifting sands. Moreover, although critical to the peace process, the scale of the international presence, which increasingly resembles a protectorate, is in some ways counter-productive to Bosnia’s long-term future. On the one hand, domestic institutions and politicians have to a large extent given up responsibility for governing their own country. On the other, the massive international stake has led key international players to declare the peace process a success, irrespective of how it is actually evolving. The international presence is also extremely expensive, costing some $9 billion a year.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Bilateralni odnosi Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije Fokus na spoljnu politiku Srbije prema BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Burdened by the legacy of conflict, imbued with a multitude of interests and motivations, the relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia represent a complex subject for analysis. The historical legacy in relations is an unavoidable factor in the current bilateral parallels, but for the purposes of this analysis, history will not represent a separate entity, but the background of different angles will be presented in the given context. thus, we intend to avoid a summary overview of the historical development of relations, which could easily introduce elements of prejudging contemporary and future relations, and could not be exhaustive and include all important aspects and events. the text that follows is the result of consideration of vital and central issues in the relations between the two countries, by no means a comprehensive presentation of absolutely total bilateral relations. The special attention that is focused on the foreign policy of the eastern neighbor helps to limit the analysis and thus somewhat deepens its scope. Other questions, which could also be worth studying, but did not find a place in this text, can be carried out in a similar way in further analyses.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Iran i Srednji istok Perspektive na starim premisama: Denuklearizacija lrana. Povratak Rusije. Strah među Arapima. Skepticizam Izraela.

Author(s): Hajrudin Somun / Language(s): Bosnian

In everything that has happened in the Middle East in the last few decades, especially since the "Arab Spring" in 2011, which turned from a mass social revolt against authoritarian authorities into its antipode - the so-called The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or Daesh as it is abbreviated in the Middle East, the political, ideological and military role of Iran could not be ignored. However, the door to the Middle East was reopened to the Islamic Republic only in the summer of 2015, after the conclusion of an agreement on its nuclear program with the five world powers on which international politics rests. The nuclear deal with Iran, in itself, could have contributed to calming tensions and regional security, so it was accepted, with more or less approval, by most Arab countries and Turkey, but Saudi Arabia and Israel rejected it and accepted it as a threat to their own existence.

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