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Consequences of the Explosion on the Crimean Bridge

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 8 October, an explosion took place on the Crimean Bridge connecting the occupied Crimea with Russia. As a result, one side of the double road crossing and the railway were damaged. The bridge is key to the Russians’ supply of Crimea and the transfer of troops and weapons to the south of Ukraine. In response, Russia launched massive missile attacks against Ukraine, mainly against civilian targets and energy infrastructure. There is a growing need to support Ukraine with air defence systems.

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The Strategic and Military Situation in Ukraine After It Liberated Kherson

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 11 November, Ukraine restored control over Kherson and the right bank of the Kherson region. The recapture of this city has important political, psychological, and military significance. At the same time, intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. For the counter-offensive activities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to continue to be successful, it is necessary to maintain at least the current level of supplies of Western military equipment.

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Biden, Xi Meet in Indonesia

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The leaders of the U.S. and China met on the sidelines of the G20 summit on the Indonesian island of Bali. President Joe Biden and Chairman Xi Jinping’s primary goal was to ease tensions between the two countries. Although there has been no significant change in the relationship between the states, a revival of high-level direct communication and sectoral dialogue may help reduce the risk of conflict over Taiwan. The parties agreed to return to talks suspended after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, including discussions on combating climate change, and they agreed that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken would visit Beijing to continue the talks.

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Leaders Criticise the War in Ukraine and Pledge to Strengthen the Global Economy

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The main topic of the G20 leaders’ summit in Indonesia on 15-16 November was the war in Ukraine and its negative effects on the world economy. Most countries condemned Russia’s aggression against its neighbour, although differences persist among members of the group in this regard. The G20 also announced actions to curb inflation along with supporting groups most affected by the food crisis and taking into account the interests of developing countries.

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For the Sixth Time, Netanyahu Forms New Government

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

On 29 December, a new cabinet in Israel was sworn in, led by Benjamin Netanyahu and formed by religious and right-wing parties. The participation of far-right politicians in the government and the planned reforms, concerning the judiciary, among others, will exacerbate the divisions in Israeli politics and society. In foreign policy, the regional dimension will be the most prominent, especially normalisation with Arab states and the conflict with Iran.

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German Chancellor Takes Up the Future of Europe

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Olaf Scholz’s address on the future of Europe, delivered on 29 August at Charles University in Prague, was aimed at strengthening Germany’s status as the leader of the EU, undermined by its too passive reaction to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The balanced set of proposals for reforms reflects the ambition to play the role of architect of compromises between the Member States.

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Russian Foreign Minister Completes Africa Tour

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited four African countries on 23-27 July. The aim of his tour was to break Russia’s international isolation and maintain African states’ positive neutrality towards it, as well as to promote Russia’s narrative of the West’s “responsibility” for triggering the food crisis because of sanctions.

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Russia Adopts More Confrontational Maritime Doctrine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 31 July, Vladimir Putin approved Russia’s new maritime doctrine. Compared to the one from 2015, this update is definitely more confrontational with the U.S. and NATO. It identifies the Arctic as the most important region in which Russian interests are to be secured. This means that Russian military activity in the Far North will increase, which, like the declared strengthening of Russia’s naval capabilities in the Baltic Sea, will create tensions with NATO countries.

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Changes in Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 28 March, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for Vladimir Putin, ruled out the use of nuclear weapons during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This apparent softening of rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons does not mean, however, that Russia will stop using nuclear threats. Russia’s aim is still to maintain ambiguity regarding the actual threshold for use of nuclear weapons. While the danger of nuclear escalation would be real in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict, both NATO and Russia want to avoid such a development. The Russian threats should therefore not stop the West from increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions.

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Yemen President’s Resignation: An Opportunity for the Peace Process

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

On 7 April, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the president of Yemen, a state mired in a civil war since 2014, resigned amid a fall in support for him among the anti-Houthi forces, the deteriorating living conditions in territories under his government’s control, and pressure from Gulf states. Hadi’s resignation may lead to increased coherence among the Houthis’ opponents in the short term, but strife between the factions will resume if the peace process does not progress quickly.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Seven Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of April, Russia has been focusing on operations mainly in the east and, to a lesser extent, the south of Ukraine, while it has withdrawn its forces from the north of the country, including the vicinity of Kyiv. This shows that the priorities of military action have changed and are now focused on the occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, including Mariupol, and maintaining their position in the south of Ukraine. Until it attains these goals and declares its operation a success, Russia will be unlikely to suspend the hostilities.

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Bulgaria’s Reaction to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The Bulgarian authorities - despite the strong pro-Russia sentiments of part of the society and some political groups - condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They also have accepted war refugees. However, given its energy dependence on Russia, Bulgaria is avoiding demands for a radical tightening of sanctions, especially on Russian gas and oil. At the same time, because of its traditional policy of balancing between Russia and Turkey, it is reluctant to strengthen NATO’s presence on its territory.

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The Potential Use of Chemical Weapons by Russia

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the alleged chemical weapons threat from Ukrainian paramilitary forces has been a significant element of Russian disinformation. These suggestions intensified with the lack of a military breakthrough and might be laying the groundwork for some use chemical weapons by Russia. The risk that Russia could do this has been indicated by U.S. administration officials, the president of Poland, and the head of NATO, among others. The next declarations of Western countries on this issue should be based on an agreed set of political and military consequences of any potential chemical attack by Russia.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Three Weeks of War

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 16 March, the third week of the war in Ukraine ended. Russian troops still have not broken through the main lines of the Ukrainian defences and captured Kyiv. For the Ukrainians to continue their staunch defence, supplies from Western countries in the form of weapons and humanitarian and economic aid are crucial.

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The Situation in Mariupol

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Mariupol has been under siege since 4 March. The city is a key port for Ukraine on the Azov Sea. For Russia, occupation of the city has both military and symbolic significance. The duration and constriction of the blockade has led to a humanitarian disaster in Mariupol. A prolonged siege of the city may lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, bearing the hallmarks of a crime against humanity.

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Serbia on Russia’s Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Serbia is the only country in Europe, excluding Belarus, that, apart from its support of the UN resolution, has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This position results from the political and economic ties to Russia as well as the sympathy of the Serbian society towards it, which is important a month before a general election. Most media in Serbia are dependent on the ruling parties and serve to maintain their power, and in general they repeat Russian propaganda.

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The Course of the Hostilities in Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On the ninth day of military operations in Ukraine, Russian troops continued to focus on four directions of attack, the most important of which, politically and militarily, is Kyiv. Russian forces face considerable resistance from the Ukrainian army and the society. In the coming days, it is excepted that humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from the encircled cities will be established.

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Finland’s Response to Russia’s Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The Russian military action against Ukraine initiated profound changes in Finnish foreign and security policy and in the society’s attitude towards Finland’s membership of NATO, which the majority of Finns now support.

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Arab States and the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Most Arab states are trying to remain neutral towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine. While the U.S. remains a key partner for many of them, relations with Russia are an increasingly important element of the progressive diversification of their foreign policy. Growing Western pressure on them to distance themselves from Russia may result in a more intensive turn of these countries towards China, but such pressure remains necessary given their potential to, for example, replace energy imports from Russia.

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Latin American Countries on Russia’s Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Latin American governments differed in their assessment of the Russian authorities’ actions and decision to invade Ukraine. The regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela were the only ones to clearly support Russia, but at the UN, most countries of the region expressed their opposition to the Russian aggression. Apart from Colombia, the other countries have not yet declared whether they will join the sanctions against Russia. There are concerns in the region about the negative effects of the restrictions introduced by the EU members, the U.S., and other countries. The priority for most Latin American governments is the evacuation of their citizens from Ukraine.

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