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Arab States and the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Most Arab states are trying to remain neutral towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine. While the U.S. remains a key partner for many of them, relations with Russia are an increasingly important element of the progressive diversification of their foreign policy. Growing Western pressure on them to distance themselves from Russia may result in a more intensive turn of these countries towards China, but such pressure remains necessary given their potential to, for example, replace energy imports from Russia.

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Latin American Countries on Russia’s Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Latin American governments differed in their assessment of the Russian authorities’ actions and decision to invade Ukraine. The regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela were the only ones to clearly support Russia, but at the UN, most countries of the region expressed their opposition to the Russian aggression. Apart from Colombia, the other countries have not yet declared whether they will join the sanctions against Russia. There are concerns in the region about the negative effects of the restrictions introduced by the EU members, the U.S., and other countries. The priority for most Latin American governments is the evacuation of their citizens from Ukraine.

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The Crimea Platform Summit

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The summit of the Crimea Platform, which aims for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of Crimea, was held in Kyiv on 23 August. It will not directly lead to the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula, nor to the imposition of new sanctions on Russia. However, Ukraine has managed to confirm the support of 46 states and international organisations for its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.

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Ukrainian President’s Visit to the United States

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

On 31 July to 2 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States. During his stay, the U.S. announced support for Ukraine worth a total of $117.5 million. Contrary to Ukrainian hopes, the visit did not result in any breakthrough in the key areas for Ukraine of deeper cooperation with NATO or compensation for the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).

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Slovaks' Perception of the War in Ukraine is Changing - a Socio-Political Perspective

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Slovak support for Ukraine in the war with Russia results from the attitude of the authorities, and not from cross-party or social consensus. The continuation of this policy after the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 September is uncertain, given the position of the opposition party, Direction–Slovak Social Democracy (Smer-SSD), which is leading in almost all this year’s polls. Specifically, the party announced the suspension of military and political support for Ukraine. This is in line with the pro-Russian sympathies of a large part of society. The possible co-creation of a government by this party would be a challenge for Poland and would further weaken the Central European voice on security and eastern issues.

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Lebanon’s Economy in Ruins: Consequences of the Beirut Port Explosion

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

On 4 August, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in the port warehouses in Beirut. Given the port’s crucial importance for Lebanese trade, the explosion, which destroyed port infrastructure and parts of the city, will deepen the economic crisis in Lebanon. This may affect the decision of foreign donors to pay some of the support measures for Lebanon declared in 2018 at the CEDRE conference.

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North-South Korea Tensions Increase

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

North Korea’s cutting of all communication lines with South Korea and blowing up the liaison office in Kaesong on 16 June are part of the months-long deterioration of relations between the countries. The North’s actions may pressure the South, divert attention from internal problems and strengthen the position of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, in the North’s hierarchy.

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Niger Was One Coup Too Many in the Sahel

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 26 July, the military overthrew the democratically elected, pro-Western president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum. The regional ECOWAS bloc, followed by France, threatened military intervention. However, it turned out to be politically impossible due to the support that the junta had gained with anti-French slogans and widespread opposition in the countries that were to carry it out, especially Nigeria. Russia and jihadist groups active in the region have gained politically from the coup.

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Siergiej Ławrow z wizytą w Ameryce Łacińskiej

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjski minister spraw zagranicznych przebywał w dniach 17–21 kwietnia br. kolejno w Brazylii, Wenezueli, Nikaragui i na Kubie. W trakcie wizyt przekonywał,że cele i interesy Rosji oraz większości państw latynoamerykańskich są zbieżne. Powielał też fałszywe tezy, m.in. o powodach inwazji na Ukrainę, kreując wizerunek Rosji jako ofiary polityki Zachodu. Podczas gdy pobyt w Brazylii służył legitymizowaniu rosyjskiego przekazu, w pozostałych państwach chodziło głównie o konsolidację więzi z autorytarnymi reżimami, w tym o współpracę w omijaniu sankcji.

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Wołodymyr Zełenski na szczycie Ligi Państw Arabskich

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): Polish

19 maja Wołodymyr Zełenski na zaproszenie Arabii Saudyjskiej wziął udział w 32. szczycie Ligi Państw Arabskich w Dżeddzie. W przemówieniu do delegatów Zełenski skoncentrował się na muzułmańskiej społeczności Ukrainy i budowie wsparcia dla swojego planu pokojowego. Z perspektywy regionalnej wizyta miała przede wszystkim utrwalić rolę Arabii Saudyjskiej jako zdolnej kształtować politykę zagraniczną wszystkich państw arabskich.

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Gesture Politics and the Symbolism of Compulsory Military Conscription - The Lithuanian Government sends signals to Russia and to its own public

Author(s): Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): English

Since the end of the Cold War it has been a general trend in Europe to phase out mandatory military conscription. Only thirteen European countries – including some NATO members – nowadays still retain compulsory national service. If agreed by the parliament, Lithuania, which ended mandatory army service in 2008, will soon reinstate army conscription and join the ‘European thirteen’. Starting this September, for a period of five years, 3 500 men ages 19 to 27 should be enlisted yearly to Lithuanian national service. The Lithuanian president and senior military personnel claim that this move stems from the need to counter Russia's aggressive posture in the Baltic region. While portrayed by the Lithuanian authorities as a matter of national security, re-introducing conscription can also be interpreted as a symbolic gesture directed at Lithuanian as well as Russian audiences.

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Security Tri-lemma: The UK’s Nuclear Deterrent

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

After lacklustre openings to the campaigns of the main parties, the British general election came to life last week with an ad hominem attack by Defence Secretary Michael Fallon on Labour leader Ed Miliband whom he claimed could not be trusted to renew Trident, the UK’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent. Fallon’s attack - that Miliband’s desperation for power would lead him to “stab Britain in the back” by forming a coalition with the anti-Trident Scottish National Party (SNP) - was widely condemned for its crassness, but it raised real issues that the next British government will need to address. These issues range from the cost and utility of replacing Trident to the morality of maintaining a nuclear deterrent in light of calls for disarmament, the effect of unilateral disarmament in an increasingly complex, multipolar world, and the efficacy of nuclear weapons in dealing with asymmetric threats. The nuclear issue is politically divisive in the UK, with different parties taking different views. However the parties – and the electorate – must also contend with the deeper questions they raise regarding the role that Britain wants to play in the world.

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Fortress Britain vs. Liberal Britain: Responding Effectively to Terrorism - With troops on the streets after the Manchester attack, liberal Britain is threatened by harsh (and ineffective) responses to terror

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

The attack on concert-goers and their families in Manchester has provoked heartfelt outpourings of grief and sympathy as well as widespread and vehement condemnation. Politicians and citizens alike have pledged not to let this affect the cohesion of the diverse Mancunian community or to let it change liberal ways of British life.

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G5 Sahel Joint Force: European Strategy Should Go Beyond Counter-terrorism - Mali and the wider Sahel region should be provided with more support, but is the new counter-terrorist force what is needed?

Author(s): Jan Daniel / Language(s): English

On the 2 July 2017 the leaders of five Sahelian nations, joined the French president Macron, officially inaugurated a new regional military operation. The latest initiative is supposed to bring stability to the region struggling with the aftermath of the collapse of Malian state in 2012. The 5000 troops of the G5 Sahel joint force (JF-G5S) are to be composed primarily from the nations of the G5 Sahel bloc (Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger) supported with funds, training and equipment provided by the EU, France and potentially other Western states. The force will be tasked with enhancing government control of the border areas in Sahel, strengthening the authority of the respective states and facilitating humanitarian and development operations. The first deployment (of a planned three) is expected to take place in the triborder region of central Mali, western Niger and eastern Burkina Faso, where Jihadist and criminal armed groups recently stepped up their activities. The creation of the new counter-terrorist operation provides an opportunity to curb the activity of non-state actors in the sensitive border regions, yet it needs international support and wider perspective on the roots of the local conflicts to ensure sustainable stabilization.

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The significant political declaration and the forthcoming 10th NPT review conference

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (the jubilee of this conference series) will be held at the UN Headquarters in New York from 27th April until the 22nd May, 2020. The importance of its being held has been underlined by not just the escalation of the security situation due to the continued dismantlement of the US-Russia arms-control system and the growing threat of the nuclear arms-race, but also the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the important NPT Treaty as well. On this occasion fifteen ministers of foreign affairs of the NPT’s non-nuclear weapon states, united in The Stockholm Initiative on Nuclear Disarmament, have published the Political Declaration with an Annex in February 2020. The annexed document, above all, appeals to all of the NPT’s participating states to negotiate and accept some measures recommended in the Annex to advance the nuclear disarmament process. The Annex’s list of recommended measures, the so-called stepping stones, is not exhaustive one, as stressed by the authors. However, according to the ministers their implementation could contribute to the deflection of the current dangerous development in the security situation and to the step-by-step implementation of the generally approved vision of the creation of a world without nuclear weapons. The Political Declaration’s appeal, in relation to the necessity to implement all past commitments of previous Review Conferences which remain valid, has been directly focused on five so-called declared nuclear-weapon states (France, Great Britain, the PRC, the RF and the US) and their lacks in the area of nuclear disarmament commitments. One of the main reason for the different position of the majority of the NPT’s non-nuclear weapon states to the solving of nuclear disarmament matters has been the continuation of the modernization of nuclear warheads and their means of delivery, which the nuclear-weapon states has been justified by pointing to the necessity of nuclear deterrence.

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The conference on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The historically first session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction was held on 18–22 November 2019 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, pursuant to General Assembly decision 73/546. Twenty three Middle Eastern states, four observer states (Chína, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom), three relevant international organizations (the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit) and some other international organzations e.g. the LAS, the OIC and the EU, participated in the session, which was presided over by Jordanian Ambassador Sima Bahous. At the open sessions, non-governmental organizations took part as well. The United States and Israel declined the invitation to take part. In the conclusion of the conference, the participating states consensually approved the seven-point Political Declaration, which has a general and proclamatory character, and is an appendix to the Final Report (A/CONF.236/6).

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The present development in the nuclear arms control

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The reflection highlights the need to increase the international nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control efforts, particularly in the wake of the security crisis development triggered by the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it examines the courses and results of two important conferences dealing with nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, that were organized this year. These conferences were the first Meeting of the States-Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna in June and the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which took place in August at the UN Headquarters in New York. The conclusions contain some expected courses of action to reduce the risk of a nuclear war and a nuclear arms race.

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Who lost the battle, and who will win the great war?

Author(s): Dejan Azeski / Language(s): English

We are steadily approaching the beginning of the third year of the war in Ukraine, referred to by the Russian side as a Special Military Operation. Up to this point, we have witnessed a duel between the best weapons and tactics of both Russia and the NATO alliance, unfortunately resulting in hundreds of thousands of fatal casualties on both sides. We have seen numerous sacrifices and the uncompromising struggle of both armies, yet what remains elusive is the current outcome of the battles and any indication of who might emerge as the clear victor in this clash of civilizations, and whether there will ever be one. As things stand currently, the Russian military holds a more advantageous position. Not only have they withstood a six-month offensive by the finest NATO arsenal with almost no loss of captured territory, but they now seem poised to launch their own offensive. However, this does not necessarily signify a definitive outcome, as the scale and stakes in this war are so immense that a single battle cannot alter the course of such a vast conceptual showdown between two opposing sides of our planet.

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Putin’s War, ramifications for China

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Thirteen months into the war in Ukraine and it is effectively stalemate, although there remains bitter confrontation around the town of Bakhmut as well as an almost daily arrival of missiles or armed drones, although most of these are shot down before they cause harm. Four people were killed in the last foray in the Kyiv surrounds. Putin cannot win the war in this way, which he knows. He has just had a visit from President Xi Jinping of China to show that he still enjoys Xi’s support, except in the form of direct military assistance, which he needs. China is ostensibly trying to broker a peace deal. They are embarrassed by this war; it is affecting China’s trade, not just with Ukraine, but other countries as well, particularly if these nations have sympathy for Ukraine. However, a peace deal usually would require a measure of compromise on behalf of the warring parties. And Ukraine has, with some justification, says that Russia has to withdraw entirely from any Ukrainian lands they have taken. Russia would therefore have no land-take as a result for all the trouble and damage, never mind acts of genocide that some of their troops have perpetrated.

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2023 Ukraine Crisis: Implications of Russia-Ukraine War on Middle East

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for 16 months already, has generated significant implications of the political scene of the Middle East, where the war has exposed the complexities of the calculations with which the states of the region are faced as a result of the escalation of international relations and the siding of the countries world-wide with one of the two groups – the group of the US and its western allies on one side and the Russian and China–led group on the other. The war also had repercussions on the geopolitical orientation of the states, as well as bilateral relations between the countries of the region and global powers.

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