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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited four African countries on 23-27 July. The aim of his tour was to break Russia’s international isolation and maintain African states’ positive neutrality towards it, as well as to promote Russia’s narrative of the West’s “responsibility” for triggering the food crisis because of sanctions.
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On 31 July, Vladimir Putin approved Russia’s new maritime doctrine. Compared to the one from 2015, this update is definitely more confrontational with the U.S. and NATO. It identifies the Arctic as the most important region in which Russian interests are to be secured. This means that Russian military activity in the Far North will increase, which, like the declared strengthening of Russia’s naval capabilities in the Baltic Sea, will create tensions with NATO countries.
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On 28 March, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for Vladimir Putin, ruled out the use of nuclear weapons during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This apparent softening of rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons does not mean, however, that Russia will stop using nuclear threats. Russia’s aim is still to maintain ambiguity regarding the actual threshold for use of nuclear weapons. While the danger of nuclear escalation would be real in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict, both NATO and Russia want to avoid such a development. The Russian threats should therefore not stop the West from increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions.
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On 7 April, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the president of Yemen, a state mired in a civil war since 2014, resigned amid a fall in support for him among the anti-Houthi forces, the deteriorating living conditions in territories under his government’s control, and pressure from Gulf states. Hadi’s resignation may lead to increased coherence among the Houthis’ opponents in the short term, but strife between the factions will resume if the peace process does not progress quickly.
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Since the beginning of April, Russia has been focusing on operations mainly in the east and, to a lesser extent, the south of Ukraine, while it has withdrawn its forces from the north of the country, including the vicinity of Kyiv. This shows that the priorities of military action have changed and are now focused on the occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, including Mariupol, and maintaining their position in the south of Ukraine. Until it attains these goals and declares its operation a success, Russia will be unlikely to suspend the hostilities.
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The Bulgarian authorities - despite the strong pro-Russia sentiments of part of the society and some political groups - condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They also have accepted war refugees. However, given its energy dependence on Russia, Bulgaria is avoiding demands for a radical tightening of sanctions, especially on Russian gas and oil. At the same time, because of its traditional policy of balancing between Russia and Turkey, it is reluctant to strengthen NATO’s presence on its territory.
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Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the alleged chemical weapons threat from Ukrainian paramilitary forces has been a significant element of Russian disinformation. These suggestions intensified with the lack of a military breakthrough and might be laying the groundwork for some use chemical weapons by Russia. The risk that Russia could do this has been indicated by U.S. administration officials, the president of Poland, and the head of NATO, among others. The next declarations of Western countries on this issue should be based on an agreed set of political and military consequences of any potential chemical attack by Russia.
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On 16 March, the third week of the war in Ukraine ended. Russian troops still have not broken through the main lines of the Ukrainian defences and captured Kyiv. For the Ukrainians to continue their staunch defence, supplies from Western countries in the form of weapons and humanitarian and economic aid are crucial.
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Mariupol has been under siege since 4 March. The city is a key port for Ukraine on the Azov Sea. For Russia, occupation of the city has both military and symbolic significance. The duration and constriction of the blockade has led to a humanitarian disaster in Mariupol. A prolonged siege of the city may lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, bearing the hallmarks of a crime against humanity.
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Serbia is the only country in Europe, excluding Belarus, that, apart from its support of the UN resolution, has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This position results from the political and economic ties to Russia as well as the sympathy of the Serbian society towards it, which is important a month before a general election. Most media in Serbia are dependent on the ruling parties and serve to maintain their power, and in general they repeat Russian propaganda.
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On the ninth day of military operations in Ukraine, Russian troops continued to focus on four directions of attack, the most important of which, politically and militarily, is Kyiv. Russian forces face considerable resistance from the Ukrainian army and the society. In the coming days, it is excepted that humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from the encircled cities will be established.
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The Russian military action against Ukraine initiated profound changes in Finnish foreign and security policy and in the society’s attitude towards Finland’s membership of NATO, which the majority of Finns now support.
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Most Arab states are trying to remain neutral towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine. While the U.S. remains a key partner for many of them, relations with Russia are an increasingly important element of the progressive diversification of their foreign policy. Growing Western pressure on them to distance themselves from Russia may result in a more intensive turn of these countries towards China, but such pressure remains necessary given their potential to, for example, replace energy imports from Russia.
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Latin American governments differed in their assessment of the Russian authorities’ actions and decision to invade Ukraine. The regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela were the only ones to clearly support Russia, but at the UN, most countries of the region expressed their opposition to the Russian aggression. Apart from Colombia, the other countries have not yet declared whether they will join the sanctions against Russia. There are concerns in the region about the negative effects of the restrictions introduced by the EU members, the U.S., and other countries. The priority for most Latin American governments is the evacuation of their citizens from Ukraine.
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The summit of the Crimea Platform, which aims for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of Crimea, was held in Kyiv on 23 August. It will not directly lead to the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula, nor to the imposition of new sanctions on Russia. However, Ukraine has managed to confirm the support of 46 states and international organisations for its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
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On 31 July to 2 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States. During his stay, the U.S. announced support for Ukraine worth a total of $117.5 million. Contrary to Ukrainian hopes, the visit did not result in any breakthrough in the key areas for Ukraine of deeper cooperation with NATO or compensation for the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).
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Slovak support for Ukraine in the war with Russia results from the attitude of the authorities, and not from cross-party or social consensus. The continuation of this policy after the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 September is uncertain, given the position of the opposition party, Direction–Slovak Social Democracy (Smer-SSD), which is leading in almost all this year’s polls. Specifically, the party announced the suspension of military and political support for Ukraine. This is in line with the pro-Russian sympathies of a large part of society. The possible co-creation of a government by this party would be a challenge for Poland and would further weaken the Central European voice on security and eastern issues.
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On 4 August, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in the port warehouses in Beirut. Given the port’s crucial importance for Lebanese trade, the explosion, which destroyed port infrastructure and parts of the city, will deepen the economic crisis in Lebanon. This may affect the decision of foreign donors to pay some of the support measures for Lebanon declared in 2018 at the CEDRE conference.
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North Korea’s cutting of all communication lines with South Korea and blowing up the liaison office in Kaesong on 16 June are part of the months-long deterioration of relations between the countries. The North’s actions may pressure the South, divert attention from internal problems and strengthen the position of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, in the North’s hierarchy.
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On 26 July, the military overthrew the democratically elected, pro-Western president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum. The regional ECOWAS bloc, followed by France, threatened military intervention. However, it turned out to be politically impossible due to the support that the junta had gained with anti-French slogans and widespread opposition in the countries that were to carry it out, especially Nigeria. Russia and jihadist groups active in the region have gained politically from the coup.
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