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Current state, prospects, successes and multilateral gaps of international sanctions regime against the Russian Federation

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): Ukrainian

Economic, diplomatic and other sanctions have become a standard tool for international policy. The states that implement them use sanctions as an instrument of pressure to influence the geopolitical decisions of the government of the country against which they are directed. In 2014, in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the east Ukraine, the United States, the EU, Canada, Australia and other countries have imposed sanctions againstthe aggressor. Russia has become the largest and most influential country against which such harsh sanctions have been imposed. Despite Russia's important position in the international arena, the US and the EU have stated that they will not lift sanctions regime until Russia’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements and the return of the Crimean peninsula.

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Ukraine in the face of a demographic catastrophe

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has aggravated the country’s already extremely difficult demographic situation, creating the prospect of a demographic catastrophe. Over the course of its three decades of independence, Ukraine has experienced a deepening population loss due to negative birth rates and high migration dynamics. Although Ukraine had a population of 51.5 million after gaining independence, in 2019 its estimated population size was a mere37 million. The ongoing war has resulted in a large (although undisclosed) number of both military (mostly men in their prime) and civilian casualties, and has triggered a wave of refugees whose prospects of returning to their former places of residence are unclear. The invasion has worsened the physical and mental health of Ukrainian citizens and contributed to further negative trends in the younger generations’ decisions to procreate, out of uncertainty regarding the economic situation in the near to mid-term future.

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Wagner Group Transforms in the Wake of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Composed of mercenaries, the Wagner Group is being used by the Russian government to carry out operations in Ukraine and strengthen Russia’s influence in Africa and the Middle East. Its overt participation in the war in Ukraine has forced a change in the nature of the group from an elite unit carrying out special operations tasks to an organisation utilising mass conscription of convicts sent to the frontline. Russia bears the legal responsibility for the Wagner Group’s war crimes. To limit the group’s freedom of action, the EU and the U.S. should recognise it as a terrorist organisation and extend sanctions to its affiliates.

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Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer-term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.

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What are the Prospects the U.S. Authorities will Designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In July, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called on the U.S. Secretary of State to designate the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. In response, Secretary Antony Blinken expressed scepticism as to whether such a step was needed, revealing differences between the administration and Congress on the issue. Including Russia on the list would have a number of legal and financial consequences, such as increased restrictions and opening a discussion on possible secondary sanctions against Russia.

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Ethiopia and Tigrayans Pursue a Complicated Peace

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The recognition by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that the use of force in Tigray province has been ineffective is, with international diplomatic efforts, conducive to ending the Ethiopian civil war. Preparations are underway to start direct talks between the central government and the Tigrayan leadership. EU and U.S. envoys primarily seek to unlock basic services from the Ethiopian government for the inhabitants of Tigray.

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Assessing the Perspectives on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Another armed escalation between Armenian and Azeri forces, initiated by Azerbaijan, took place in Nagorno-Karabakh in early August this year. The country’s goal is to exert maximum political pressure on Armenia during two-track peace talks under the auspices of the EU and Russia. At the moment, there is no chance of resolving the conflict, as it would not benefit Azerbaijan, which is the stronger side of the conflict, nor Russia, which is using the situation in the NK to emphasise its role as a mediator and to get the U.S. and EU countries to resume political dialogue with it.

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China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.

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A creeping annexation. Russia’s plans to partition Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Russia was forced to modify its plan after its military operation in Ukraine failed. The original intention was the rapid political subjugation of Ukraine. The new plan involves Russia consolidating its position in the territories that it has managed to seize thus far. As a result of major resistance on the part of Ukrainian society, the Kremlin has abandoned its planned implementation of a technique known from 2014 involving the creation of so-called people’s republics in the occupied Kherson Oblast and portions of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Since May 2022, Russian government officials have increasingly frequently spoken of annexing the occupied territories, making reference to the history of the Russian Empire and to the Taurida and Kherson governorates created in 1802. As concerns the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), the plan to incorporate them into the Russian Federation should be viewed as a correction of the strategy pursued following the signing of the so-called Minsk agreements in 2015, which specified that the Donbas would be granted special status within the Ukrainian state. The self-proclaimed republics and the territories that have been seized since the beginning of the war, covering more than 80,000 square kilometres, are to become an integral part of Russia. This will enable Moscow to maintain a corridor leading to occupied Crimea, to present the “special military operation” as a Russian victory and to launch another stage of the process of “uniting Russian lands”.

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Russia Threatens Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russian threats increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine, but it still appears to be remote. Such an attack most likely would be preceded by more direct signals than Putin’s ambiguous warnings. Although such a strike would not guarantee a Russian victory, Putin might still order it in an act of desperation. To counter this risk, Russia must be convinced that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will trigger a strong international response, including conventional military intervention by the U.S. and its allies.

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Eyes west! A shift in focus in Russia’s Southern Military District

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Southern Military District (SMD), which is the smallest of all the main administrative units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in terms of landmass, has been one of the most powerful districts and one of those playing the greatest roles in the armed conflicts in which Russia is engaged. In the two Chechen wars and the strike against Georgia in 2008, it bore the main brunt, and at present currently, along with the Black Sea Fleet (which is under its command), it bears the main responsibility for operations against Ukraine and for the military operation in Syria.

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The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.

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Prospects Dim for Settling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Wojtasiewicz / Language(s): English

Despite the intensification of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, no breakthrough has been achieved. The leaders of the countries, respectively, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, declare their willingness to reach an agreement, but have not come to terms on any major issue. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, guarantees for Karabakh Armenians, and the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remain unresolved, raising fears of a renewed war.

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The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

At the beginning of February, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will end support for the coalition in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia and removed its foe, Ansar Allah, from the list of recognised Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO). Attempts to persuade the Arab coalition to withdraw from Yemen, together with the promise of maintaining the partnership with Saudi Arabia in other respects, may contribute to the signing of an effective ceasefire in Yemen and strengthen the peace process.

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France-Rwanda Reconciliation Follows Genocide Report

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In March, a commission of historians commissioned by President Emmanuel Macron to study France’s role before and during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 published the results of their research. Its conclusions were critical of France and well-received in Rwanda. That paved the way for the first visit to Rwanda in a decade by the French leader. The end of more than 25 years of mutual hostility will bring political benefits to both sides. The historians’ report contributes to the discussion about the future of humanitarian interventions.

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Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey - after the EU and the U.S. - one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.

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The Potential Threat of the Ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaida

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The collapse of Afghanistan’s government and security forces might increase the terrorist threat to the U.S. and Europe. During the period before 11 September 2001, the leaders of Al-Qaida and the Afghan fundamentalists cooperated closely. According to UN estimates, there are currently between a few hundred to a thousand members of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Despite weakening since the death of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida in future might use Afghanistan to regroup and as a safe haven.

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The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.

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Prospects for ISIS in Afghanistan

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The ISIS faction Khorasan Province, ISIS-K, is using Afghanistan’s internal destabilisation to grow its structures in the region. It will mobilise supporters from neighbouring countries to challenge the strength of the Taliban and their ally Al-Qaida. ISIS-K is much weaker than them but aspires for a greater role through the escalating use of violence. By controlling part of Afghanistan, ISIS-K intends to build structures like those in Syria and Iraq in 2013-2019. The success of these plans would further threaten the security of the countries of Central and South Asia and increase the terrorist threat to Europe.

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Turkey Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s negotiations with the Taliban aim to strengthen the country’s political influence in Afghanistan, hoping that would improve its international position, help develop its strategy towards Asia, and limit the influx of Afghan refugees. Cooperation with Turkey on Afghanistan could help the EU better manage migration from the latter.

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