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Germany on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

After the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the German government began work on diversifying supplies of energy resources and becoming independent from Russia, which will, however, be a long-term process. In the area of security, Germany is emphasising solidarity with its NATO allies and has announced a decision to significantly increase its defence spending. The war in Ukraine has politically strengthened Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who gained in public opinion polls after announcing a change in direction of German policy.

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The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.

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Military Coup in Burkina Faso

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 24 January, the Burkina Faso military arrested President Roch Kaboré and seized state power. The coup was the result of frustration within the armed forces over the inability of the authorities to effectively fight the jihadists. The coup will complicate the conditions of international engagement, including the EU’s, in the Sahel.

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Legal Aspects of the Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, carried out with the support of Belarus, is a violation of the norms of international law that form the basis of the international order shaped after the Second World War. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justifications of the attack are legally questionable and contradictory to facts. There are also violations of humanitarian law being committed in the course of the hostilities, especially concerning the protection of civilians. The aim of the international community should be to stop the aggression and hold accountable states and individuals responsible for these violations.

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The Social and Humanitarian Situation in Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Figures are incomplete on civilian casualties, but at least 136 civilians have been killed as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. At least hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes and evacuate to safer parts of the country or abroad. Ukrainian society has shown a high degree of mobilisation in the face of Russian aggression and is expressing its readiness to resist.

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Belarus’s Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.

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The Question of Russian Aggression against Ukraine at the UN

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, an emergency session of the United Nations(UN) General Assembly (UNGA) adopted, under the Uniting for Peace procedure, a resolution condemning this act of aggression. The UNGA called on Russia to cease hostilities and to withdraw unconditionally from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.

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The Normandy Format Summit - No Real Progress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

The Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) summit, held in Paris on 9 December for the first time since 2016, did not bring any breakthrough in the negotiations regarding settling the situation in Donbas. The Russian authorities still lack the political will necessary to end the conflict.

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From Vicious to Virtuous: Transforming the Ukraine Crisis - The EU can create a lasting peace by sticking to its (lack of) guns

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

Given the rising death toll in Eastern Ukraine, reports of a ceasefire deal in Minsk are a very welcome development. However, rather than merely halting the war, the EU, Ukraine and Russia need to create a lasting peace. Calls for the West to arm Ukraine – a misguided attempt to level the killing field – has overshadowed previous proposals from EU leaders to create a free trade area with Russia in the long-term. However, this is the approach that offers the greatest hope for a long-term solution that can transform the conflict, EU-Russia relations and even Russia itself. It would benefit all concerned – apart from the Putin regime – but it faces many obstacles, not least within the EU itself. The EU needs to assuage the concerns that some of its member states have about engaging with Russia and with the Putin regime. If this can be done, the EU can also begin to establish a foreign policy that adheres to its values and perhaps even begin to address its own internal crisis of confidence.

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Global south engagement for peace in Ukraine

Author(s): Matthias E. Leitner / Language(s): English

Precarious Conflict Trajectory - Russia and Ukraine are preparing for a spring offensive with higher levels of military involvement. Spill-over into the region has been avoided so far, despite several drone attacks on Russian bases in occupied Crimea and in western Russia as well as the bombing of Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea with Russia’s Taman peninsula in October 2022, one day after President Putin’s 70th birthday. It is not excluded that intensifying conflict or a costly prolonged stalemate can lead to escalation and actively involve NATO or one of the front-line states with Ukraine.

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Putin’s War, world meetings, etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The last period has been busy with world meetings none of which have or only peripherally involved Russia because of their malign intent on Ukraine. A distinct change from reporting about the Ukrainian conflict is the football World Cup, the 4- yearly event now being hosted by Qatar, an occasion which was previously hosted by Russia in 2018, and where Putin was frequently visible. The fact that he had annexed Crimea 4 years before had been ‘forgotten’ about and he took all the praise for a successful event. However, Russia has not qualified for the current Middle East held event. They will be sorely missed! The Qatari event is taking a significant amount of airtime, not just about football, but that is another story.

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Europe of the West: Imperialism of Imagination, Geopolitics of Peter Pan

Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

Economic downturn; recession of plans and initiatives; systematically ignored calls for a fiscal and monetary justice for all; €-crisis; Brexit and irredentism in the UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Denmark and Italy; lasting instability in the Euro-Med theatre (debt crisis of the Europe’s south – countries scrutinized and ridiculed under the nickname PIGS, coupled with the failed states all over the MENA); terrorism; historic low with Moscow culminating in the unprecedented opened armed conflict of West with Russia on the territory of yet another Slavic useful idiot, ill-fated Ukraine, all this combined with a confrontational but in fact frightened and disoriented Washington administration; influx of predominantly Muslim refugees from Levant in numbers and configurations unprecedented since the WWII exoduses (with an institutionalized racism in the Western migration policy while giving to fleeing Ukrainians diametrically different treatment); consequential growth of far-right parties who – by peddling reductive messages and comparisons – are exploiting fears of otherness, that are now amplified with already urging health labour and social justice concerns; generational unemployment and sociocultural anxieties, in ricochet of sanctions; long-ago ‘prophesised’ than doctored health, post-C-19 and energy ‘crises’, oil anti-diplomacy, as well as the Sino-US trade wars, while rifting in dilemma to either letting Bolivarism or supporting Monroeism…

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Putin’s war – cont’d

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

We in Britain are just getting over a lengthy mourning period for Queen Elizabeth II, and saying goodbye to the longest reigning monarch in British history. Perhaps Vladimir Putin waited, as a mark of respect, before he addressed the Russian people to give them the next phase of his plans for his ‘special military operation’. It was hard to witness his drive in the streets of London in an open-topped limousine smiling, beside the Queen, some twenty years ago! Relationships with Russia have certainly soured since then.

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Ukraine 2022: Russia's nuclear sabre-rattling

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

With the Russian-Ukrainian war entering its eighth month and a stalemate along the front lines, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered on September 21, 2022, the first military mobilization in the country since World War II, warning the West that if it continued what he called its “nuclear blackmail” Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our people - this is not a bluff,” Putin said in in his speech, which was broadcast on Russian television.

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Ukraine 2022: The war in Ukraine or “the special military operation in Ukraine”?

Author(s): Corneliu Pivariu / Language(s): English

On February 24 2022, around 5 AM Moscow time, on Vladimir Putin’s order the Russian army launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. There is no chance for us to fall into Kremlin’s propagandistic trap and accept circumventing the term war for this aggression and use Moscow’s expression. The re-invasion Russia launched on ground, from the air and from the sea is the largest attack of a state against another state in Europe after the WWII. The 2014 invasion should not be forgotten and that is why we used the term re-invasion which is, otherwise, coming across in the international media.

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Unmasking War Propaganda against Russian Aggression: An Investigative Approach

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

Since its unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine, Russia has inundated the world with misinformation and disinformation in efforts to justify its military operations and to claim its strict observance of the rules of warfare. Unsurprisingly, many of these efforts have often been penetrated due to the poor and blatant construction exposed by the mainstream Western mass media that perhaps interact closely with the intelligence circles.

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Putin’s War – 5; etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine, Putin’s war, is now over 100 days old and reaching a point of stalemate. One day the Russians have made small gains in the Donbas, the eastern border lands of Ukraine, and in the next day or so we hear that they have been stopped and pushed back. In the meantime, the promised more powerful armaments, with a bigger range, from Britain, the US and from some European countries, are coming on stream, albeit late and slowly, and these may, should push the Russians back. One hopes so that it is more than just talk. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister is not at all pleased at this development of the west’s support for what maybe in a short time a member of the EU, and warns of an escalation of activities. Perhaps that is a risk Ukraine has to take in order to take back the lands lost.

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Ukraine 2022: A Test for the EU and NATO

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The aggression of Russia on the Ukraine is an event that will mark the future of Europe as well as the global international order. A week after the beginning of the aggression on the Ukraine by Putin’s regime, some of the aspects and characteristics of this military expedition are very obvious and noticeable, along with their international dimensions, reactions and parallels from history. The most important is the fact that a military operation, a war, is going on, what is without comparison in the modern European history after the end of the Cold War. The aggression and the consequent war present a ruthless, brutal and consciousness breach and neglect of a range of international legal, humanitarian and other rules that regulate relations between sovereign and independent states in international relations. Hence, the aggression is a military act, a precedence that has to be stopped and brought to a standstill, the international mediation and negotiation should be introduced, peace agreement has to be concluded and the responsible persons have to be brought to justice, processed for military crimes they did. European and world political, diplomatic, legal and military history have many tools at disposal for these actions. Here, also lessons learned from the recent past from the dissolution of former Yugoslavia, are highly useful for processing war criminals, as the International Court of Justice in the Hague can serve.

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