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Demographic projections of depopulated zones in Serbia: The example of the municipality of Negotin

Author(s): Petar D. Vasić,Vera Gligorijević / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2023

Demographic projections represent a multi-purpose instrument in predicting the population development for the purpose of spatial planning and organizing as well as local economic development. In Serbia, demographic projections are very rarely produced on territorial levels lower than regional, therefore, the projections that are depicted in this work will be focused on the municipality of Negotin with the goal of observing an exceptionally depopulated area located in Eastern Serbia. The projections have been created with a time horizon of the year 2040 by using the cohort-component method which is well-established in literature as a prevailing method of producing population projections. Population projections for the municipality of Negotin have been constructed in three variants all relying on the initial hypotheses of fertility, mortality, and migrations. This is also the first time that such projections have been made separately for a rural and urban area of the municipality of Negotin. Results have shown that by the year 2040, the population will range between 17 and 18 thousand citizens, with the depopulation rate in rural areas being twice as high as that of urban ones. With the current demographic state in mind, it is evident that only direct interventions in the domain of migrational policies could slow down the pace of depopulation. This is due to the fact that the current fertility potential is undoubtedly insufficient to slow down depopulation even in the occurrence of a complete response to pronatalist policies.

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The dynamics of population change in Eastern Serbia from the midle of the 20th to the beginning of the 21st century

Author(s): Aleksandar Knežević,Vera Gligorijević / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2023

Despite considerable natural resources and a favourable geographical location, all indicators of population trends show declining tendencies, which were indicated much earlier than they were recognized as a demographic problem. The aim of the article is to explore the dynamics and intensity of population change in Eastern Serbia, but without analytical approaches to the components of population dynamics. The chosen temporal and spatial coverage of the research is in accordance with the methodological approach, which provides for the application of the comparative-statistical method to as many spatial units as possible, in order to determine the spatial dispersion of the indicators of population growth. The data sources in this research are censuses, and the presented indicators of population growth were derived according to the methodology of demographic research. The obtained results show a weak increase in the population of Eastern Serbia from 1948 to 1961, since then the values of the growth indicators stagnate for a short time and then decrease continuously. In the whole observation period from 1948-2011, the growth index shows a 21% decrease in the population of Eastern Serbia. The average annual growth rates of the population in Eastern Serbia were lower than the average annual growth rates of the total population of Central Serbia in all intermediate census periods until 2011, and this difference is even more pronounced if the City of Niš is excluded from the total population of Eastern Serbia. Although the dynamics of population growth in Eastern Serbia in the period 1948-2011 is characterized by linearity (either in the form of increase or decrease), it is striking that not all parts of the country participate equally. Only 4 municipalities and the City of Niš recorded an increase in population, while in the other 20 municipalities the population decreased. In 10 municipalities depopulation was already recorded in 1953-1961.

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The impact of parking lots on sustainable mobility in the Mzab Valley (Algerian Sahara), preliminary results of field observations

Author(s): Chafia Bekhti,Alkama Djamel,Sofiane Bensehla / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

Sustainable mobility reduces the consumption of space and resources, facilitates access, promotes economic dynamism, and creates a sustainable environment. This paper investigated the possibility of switching to a sustainable mobility system through parking management in the Mzab Valley and the city of Ghardaia, one of Algeria's classified heritage sites. Using the quantitative descriptive approach and the road network analysis method, the current situation of parking lots shows a high diversity and characterization of parking lots. The most important factors affecting parking lots were also identified, such as population density, vehicle ownership, and the road network. The study shows medium connectivity of the road network and traffic problems with a road saturation coefficient of almost 60%, where access to parking lots increases from 5 minutes to 10 minutes when driving to the city centre. The city centre has a high concentration of parking lots (81%). Furthermore, parking frequency is 5% higher in the morning compared to the evening, with an overall capacity of 12,495 parked cars and a deficit of 10,500 parking spaces. Linking the study to the social and policy aspects, the results indicate that trips for non-compulsory reasons dominate over mandatory trips for workers, where 50% of the population owns a private car and 10% use public transport. Based on the SWOT method, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to be adjusted were identified. This research defines short- and medium-term solutions as a global vision for improving sustainable mobility in the Mazabite context or a similar region.

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Spatial distribution patterns of hotspot and relationship between hotspot and vegetation indices in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Author(s): Patiya Pattanasak / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

This work focused on Chiang Mai Province, Thailand, had 2 targets which were 1) to analyse spatial distribution patterns of hotspot and 2) to analyse a relationship between hotspot and vegetation indices in the area. The hotspots data of 2016 - 2020 which had a significant level > 70% were gathered from MODIS satellite images, was provided by Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). An analyse method was performed by Nearest Neighbour Index (NNI) with Moran’ s I to present spatial distribution patterns and density of hotspot. Analysis of Getis - Ord Gi* statistic was for identify heat of hotspot comparing with surrounding area. Moreover, vegetation indices values (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index: NDVI, Soil Adjustment Vegetation Index: SAVI and Normalized Difference Water Index: NDWI) was examined by satellite images of the same period from Landsat 8 OLI to analyse a relationship between hotspot and each vegetation index. The results illustrated that there were different number of hotspots over 5 studying years, especially in 2016 which had the most hotspot. The spatial distribution of hotspot patterns was classified as clustered type (Getis - Ord Gi* statistic with Z-Score > 1.96) with different hotspot density in each year. The area which had high heat was found in upper and west area with medium to high hotspots density. The hotspot and NDVI had relationship in contrast by a correlation coefficient value at -.887 (r = -.887) with a significant level at .05. However, SAVI and NDWI had no relationship with hotspot.

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Assessment of tourist climate comfort on the example of Novi Sad

Author(s): Nina Čegar,Sandra Vukašinović,Milica Dobrić,Uroš Durlević / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2023

Climate elements are one of the most important factors for tourism development. This study aims to show the values of the tourist climate comfort index based on monthly values. For the needs of the research, the method of tourist climate comfort (TCCI) was used, on the example of the city of Novi Sad. Meteorological data for the climatological period of 30 years (1991-2020) from the meteorological station Rimski Šančevi were analysed. Meteorological data that were observed, analysed, and statistically processed are: mean monthly air temperature, monthly temperature amplitude, mean monthly humidity, monthly insolation, and number of rainy days. The obtained results indicate that May and September are the most climatologically suitable months for tourist activities. Data on the number of tourist arrivals and their overnight stays in this area covers the period from 2004-2020. In this paper, a linear correlation between the value of climate comfort and the number of tourists has been made in order to provide local authorities and tourism organizations a more precise overview of the perception and valorisation of climate elements for the improvement of tourist potential.

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Study of spatial configuration and social behaviour in corridors housing in Blida, Algeria

Author(s): Zahra Haddad,Najet Mouaziz Bouchentouf / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between spatial configuration and social behaviour in corridor housing. It seeks to understand the effects of the dwelling, the corridor as a space, and the inhabitant as a user on one another, through the case study of the Ourida housing estate in Blida, Algeria, which was built in the post-war period by Atbat-Afrique under the direction of Candilis. The methodology triangulates three data collection methods: systematic observation, a mixed qualitative and quantitative survey of a sample of 180 user (56% of total residents), and measured drawings of 40 out of 60 dwellings. The finding reveals a connection between the social behaviour of inhabitants and the spatial configuration. This corridor housing configuration required specific socio-spatial behaviours from the inhabitants of Ourida while failing to accommodate their lifestyle needs. Moreover, territoriality, control and surveillance, privacy, and the creation of defensible area, are the expression of social behaviour in space. Additionally, the layout of Ourida housing does not promote neighbourly interactions and activities. The results of this study highlight the importance of considering needs, lifestyle, and culture in space configuration.

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Assessment of the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) change on depth runoff: Case study of Skikda floods event

Author(s): Lamia Leulmi,Youcef Lazri,Brahim Abdelkebir,Sofiane Bensehla / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

Land use and land cover changes in coastal cities can influence drainage sys-tems in ways that affect surface overflows and the infiltration potential of a land surface, making flooding one of the drivers. This research aims to demonstrate the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC and their combined impact on rainfall and flood height in Skikda, Algeria. The research uses remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) to determine the type and location of LULC changes in Skikda. The supervised classification methodology used the maximum likelihood technique (MCL). Changes were identified in five categories: built-up areas, green spaces, bodies of water, agriculture, and vacant land. In Q-GIS 3.28.2, Landsat 4-5 (TM) data from 1984 and 2004 and Landsat 8-9 (OLI)/TIRS data from 2019 were used based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The results show that the impervious built-up area has changed significantly (44.01%) due to massive urbanization and rapid industrialization, which would affect heavy rainfall activity and increase flood height due to the intense imperviousness of the affected soil (from 27% to 44%). The precipitation and flood height were examined and compared with observations to investigate the impact of the LULC model modification during the flood. The comparison of three flood events (1984, 2004, and 2019) revealed that the change in the LULC model is the main factor increasing flood risk in the study area. This study demonstrates the importance of considering temporal changes in land use, land cover, rainfall, and flood height when mapping floods in urban cities.

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Assessment of the quality of public spaces in the new city of Ali Mendjeli in Constantine (Algeria)

Author(s): Mehdi Kaghouche,Imane Benkechkache / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

The contemporary city is built around open spaces, which have always contributed to the improvement of the image of the city and the living environment of its inhabitants. These open spaces, also called public spaces, remain neglected spaces in urban planning in Algeria. Our article focuses on the assessment of public spaces based on a multi-criteria analysis able to provide a comprehensive assessment of the quality of open spaces. Using structured observations throughout the day over a period of 15 days following an observation grid, we calculated a Public Space Index (PSI) across five dimensions, including inclusiveness, meaningful activities, safety, comfort, and pleasurability. The Public Space Index (PSI) is constructed from 45 variables to assess the five dimensions of public space. Our choice focused on the new city (Ali Mendjeli) located at Constantine, Algeria, a city that has been built recently (about thirty years). In this city, we have neglected the issue of public spaces in its planning. Recently, there has been a growing awareness of the need to improve the image of the city and the living environment of its inhabitants. So, the aim of this research is to assess the quality of its public spaces. The results of our research showed that the design of its public spaces had not taken into consideration many things in relation to the users of the space. Despite this, the public space studied meets the quality criteria for the five dimensions studied with a score of 69 out of 100.

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Spatial planning systems in Europe

Author(s): Branka Tošić,Zora Živanović / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2023

The paper aims to present the most significant classifications of spatial planning systems and territorial management in Europe. After the first attempts, from the end of the last century, at the beginning of the new millennium, extensive analyses of the spatial planning system were carried out through several ESPON projects. Their results were based on the dominance of one of four approaches: urbanism, land use, regional-economic or comprehensive integrated planning. Some countries have a combination of two or three approaches. The second research also refers to the development trends observed in the national systems of territorial management and spatial planning. Recent research include the classification of states according to the way of management, the level of integration of sectoral policies, the degree of adaptability in planning, as well as the degree of engagement of citizens in the planning process. Knowing the basic characteristics of the spatial planning system, as well as the classifications based on them, creates a clearer perspective of spatial planning as a socially important activity and makes it easier for every country to review and improve its planning practice.

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Stay of highly educated youth in Serbia as a chance for even development of regions

Author(s): Milica Cvetanović / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2023

The bad economic situation in Serbia has been initiating the intensive leaving of young people abroad for years, most often due to a lack of finding a job in their own country. Serbia remains without highly educated young people who, with their knowledge and modern skills, could affect the development of their home regions. This paper is an attempt to establish a connection between brain drain and the development of the NUTS 3 regions of Serbia, or whether the stay of highly educated youth could affect the even development of the regions. Development problems and reasons for migration are theoretically present-ed. After that, the results of the research conducted through a survey that included 320 respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 (students and those who already have university degrees) were given. The results of this research are quite negative, and therefore it was determined that the position of youth in Serbia is unsatisfactory. By comparing it with previous research, it is concluded that the situation has been getting worse over the years. Based on the responses of the respondents, certain steps were suggested that should be taken in order to achieve positive results.

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Changes in air temperature and precipitation in Banjaluka in 1961-2022

Author(s): Tatjana Popov,Slobodan Gnjato,Goran Trbić,Marko Ivanišević / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

Study analyses climate change in Banjaluka. It provides understanding of long-term trends (1961-2022) and shifts between last two standard thirty-year climatological periods: 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. Results showed significant warming; mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures displayed significant upward trends, at the annual level (0.51°C/10yr, 0.63°C/10yr, and 0.50°C/10yr, respectively) and in all seasons (strongest in summer; 0.68°C/10yr, 0.80°C/10yr, and 0.64°C/10yr, respectively). Emergence of heat extremes was apparent in last decades. Highest magnitude of trends was obtained for TXx (0.73°C/10yr), TN90p (14.8 days/10yr), TX90 (12.4 days/10yr), SU25 (7.6 days/10yr), TX30 (7.1 days/10yr), WSDI (4.8 days/10yr). Changes in precipitation were mainly insignificant, however suggest redistribution of precipitation within the year (decrease in summer season and increase in autumn), increasing precipitation intensity and drying tendency (particularly in summer).

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Geographical characteristics of the distribution of the population of the Kosanica region - correlation with the development of tourism

Author(s): Vojkan Bojović / Language(s): English,Serbian Issue: 2/2023

The goal of this research is the analysis of the geographical features of the population distribution of the Kosanica settlement. The centre of the analysis is the geographical area of the Kosanica region and the changes in the demographic structure of the settlement caused by two socio-economic processes: economic emigration to the city centre of Kuršumlija, or to the larger city centres of Serbia on the one hand, and on the other hand a diametrically opposite process - the development of tourism in spa settlements. Population projections are related to the implementation of population policy, that is accepting the inevitable situation, changing what can be changed, which means changing the demographic dynamics and trends in order to harmonize with the expected socio-economic processes. In the conclusion of this work the author predicts a moderate growth in spa settlements and stable fertility to a level that, as a minimum, ensures population renewal through the development of tourism, while in other rural settlements and in the city centre of Kuršumlija, the demographic structure of the population is getting worse.

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Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff process using SWAT model in Bouhamdane watershed, Algeria

Author(s): Brahim Abdelkebir,Mourad Guesri,Elhadj Mokhtari,Bernard Engel / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

The current research examines the runoff response in the Bouhamdane watershed in Algeria using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The SWAT model is applied for the Bouhamane watershed, which includes three sub-watersheds and 45 Hydraulic Response Units (HRUs). To assess the ability and effectiveness of the model, one-gauge station in the basin (sabat) was chosen. Monthly discharge flow data are sourced from Algeria's National Water Resources Agency (NWRA). The soil and water assessment tool calibration uncertainty programs (SWAT-CUPs) with the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI 2) algorithm were used to calibrate and validate the model. The model was run from 1985 to 2004, with a calibration period between 1985 and 1994 and a validation period between 1995 and 2005. The model's runoff simulation efficiency has been improved by adjusting watershed input parameters. The SWAT model's performance was assessed statistically (coefficient of determination [R2], Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient [NSE], and Percent BIAS [PBIAS]). The monthly calibration R2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.89, 0.68, and 43, respectively, and the monthly validation R2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.78, 0.76, and 10.4, respectively. These results support that the SWAT model is an effective tool for simulating the surface runoff of the Bouhamdane watershed.

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Impacts of rainfall variability in Gharb plain: Morocco

Author(s): Driss El Karfa,Jamal Al Karkour,Mouhcine Batchi,Hommane Boudine / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

The Mediterranean climate is characterized by irregular rainfall, leading to both severe droughts and occasional flooding. This research aims to examine the changes occurring in the rainfall regime of the Gharb plain over thirty-three years, with specific attention given to three sites: El Menasra, Bel Ksiri, and Sidi Slimane. A range of methods were employed to understand the dimensions and impacts of rainfall in the study area. These methods include trend detection, testing for breaks, analysis of reduced annual anomalies, utilization of the Hyrfan Plus software, calculation of the Martone aridity index, assessment of the standardized rainfall index, and mapping flood zones. The findings of this study revealed that the Gharb Plain experienced periods of rainfall deficits, resulting in drought conditions during years with below-average rainfall. Conversely, years with above-average rainfall exhibited severe flooding, indicating the occurrence of two extreme phenomena that necessitate effective hydraulic management strategies. The main results showed that the rainfall trend is regressing, as the Nicholson, Martone, Emberger, and standardized precipitation indexes justify this regression. In addition, the plain has received an immense quantity of water from the Rif and Atlas Mountains, with the result that the study area has from time to time experienced severe flooding, as shown by the return periods detected, The Gharb plain has therefore experienced a rainfall deficit (drought) in years with below-average rainfall, while years with above-average rainfall have seen severe flooding, putting the country under two extreme phenomena requiring hydraulic management.

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Approaches to the study of tourist service (on the case of the Ural mountains)

Author(s): Aleksander I. Zyrianow,Inna S. Zyrianova,Svetlana E. Myshliavtseva,Irina O. Shchepetkova / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

Mountain have long been areas of tourist interest. In connection with the rapid development of the service, the range of tourist activities in the mountains is increasing. The study area is mountainous part of the Ural economic region, the most economically developed part of the Ural Mountains. The paper attempts to structure the tourist service by types of tourism - medical and recreational, skiing, nature-based, industrial, event. As a result, it was revealed that a number of types of tourism form their own service system and are clearly localized in space (health, ski, nature-based tourism), other types of tourism (industrial, event) are not so strictly determined. Medical tourism is the most inert type of tourism. The geography has not undergone significant changes over a long period of time due to the complete dependence on the infrastructure base of the sanatorium-resort complex. Ski tourism is a dynamically developing type of tourism in the region under consideration. Despite the need for significant investment, the network of ski resorts is growing and the range of their tourist services is expanding. Nature-based tourism, natural recreation is the most common type of tourism due to the widespread creation of tourist service facilities with the widest range - recreation centers and tourist bases, guest houses, glamping, campsites, etc. These objects gravitate towards natural attractions, picturesque outskirts of populated areas, points and banks of reservoirs, sustainable tourist routes.

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Social vulnerability analysis at municipal level: Case study of the province of Chlef, Algeria

Author(s): Ahmed Zemmar,Moussadek Benabbas,Djamila Djaghrouri,Stephane Cartier / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

This paper explores the empirical assessment of social vulnerability in the Algerian context using the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The SoVI is applied at the municipal level in the province of Chlef. The assessment aims to map the geographical variability of social vulnerability for the 35 municipalities of the study area. While following the original SoVI methodology, some adjustments were made to the variables to adapt them to the context. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on a set of 40 selected variables resulting in six vulnerability factors. After as-signing a sign (negative, positive, or absolute) to each factor, they were summed to calculate the overall SoVI score. The resulting maps highlight the most vulnerable municipalities in the province, and their interpretation was aided by geographical maps depicting the natural and human characteristics of the territory.

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Sustainable tourism in the context of sustainable territorial development (the case of Kaliningrad Oblast)

Author(s): Eleonora G. Matyugina,Olga V. Vusovich,Irina L. Vanina / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2023

In the presented article it is examined the relationship between “sustainable tourism” and “sustainable territorial development” on the material of Kaliningrad Oblast. The summary of native and foreign scientists` views allowed for differentiation of opinion concerning the dominance of certain sustainable development sphere, to present and substantiate the author`s vision. By examining a set of relationship between economic, environmental and social spheres of sustainable development the prevalence of the first one has been proven on the materials of Kaliningrad Oblast as confirmed by the analysis of the institutional framework for the regulation of the tourist sector and socio-economic development of the region. Procyclical nature of the development of the tourist sector of the territory is determined which emphasizes the importance of the last one and the urgency of regulating it in close connection with economic dynamic. The analysis of the State Program of Kaliningrad Oblast “Tourism” and of the Strategy for Socio-economic Development of Kaliningrad Oblast was carried out in terms of identifying the manifestation of the above-mentioned relationship (targets, main activities of the Program; the goals of the Strategy for Socio-economic Development (the goal is “development of the tourism sphere.

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Морфолошко-генетска класификација земљишта Бачке и њихова географска дистрибуција

Author(s): Nikola Milentijević,Milana Pantelić / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 2/2023

U radu je analizirana klasifikacija zemljišta Bačke na osnovu morfološko-genetskog kriterijuma. Klasifikacija pedološkog pokrivača Bačke obuhvata tri reda i deset klasa: a) automorfni, b) hidromorfni i v) halomorfni red zemljišta. U automorfnom redu zemljišta černozem predstavlja najdominantniji tip zemljišta (94,5%), zatim ritska smonica (2,67%) i rigosoli (1,26%). Černozem je u Bačkoj formiran na lesnim zaravnima, lesnim i aluvijalnim terasama. Hidromorfni red zemljišta je predstavljen livadskim crnicama (66,9%), aluvijalnim zemljištima (19,1%) i ritskim crnicama (13,1%). Livadske crnice u Bačkoj zauzimaju aluvijalne ravni autohtonih bačkih reka i odlikuje ih znatan broj podtipova. U halomorfnom redu zemljišta solončaci imaju dominantno učešće (57,7%), solonjeci (32,1%) i solođi (svega 10,1%). Njihov areal distribucije u Bačkoj obuhvata fosilne rečne i lesne terase. Povoljna struktura i distribucija plodnih tipova zemljišta omogućava planiranje održive poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Bačkoj.

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Ochrona mokradeł w Polsce

Author(s): Wiktor Kotowski,Ewa Jabłońska / Language(s): Polish Issue: 2/2024

Wetlands, once considered wastelands and annihilated in large-scale land reclamation programmes, have now become the subject of international policy. This is due to a growing awareness of their role in mitigating climate change, combating droughts and protecting biodiversity. Wetlands are affected by many of the EU’s climate and nature conservation policy commitments. Their fulfilment requires a fundamental change in the existing drainage-based management of these areas. On the occasion of World Wetlands Day, celebrated on 2 February, the anniversary of the signing of the Ramsar Convention, we provide key facts about the environmental importance of wetlands, the consequences of their degradation and the expected methods for their protection and restoration.

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HOW REAL IS MIGRATION'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE POPULATION CHANGE IN MAJOR URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS?

Author(s): Konstantin Chernyshev,Ivan Alov,Yuheng Li,Tamara Gajić / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2023

Migration acts as a growth driver for urban agglomerations, posing a difficult methodological task of its statistical accounting as well as further assessment of migration’s impact on the economy of agglomerations. The paper analyzes the contribution of migration to the change in population during the intercensal interval 2010–2021 in 20 urban agglomerations of Russia identified as promising centers of economic growth by the Russian Federation Government Decree “On Approval of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025”. The study showed that the most underestimated net migration rate was demonstrated by the agglomerations of Krasnodar, distantly followed by Krasnoyarsk and the capitals (Moscow and Saint Petersburg). The leader in terms of the absolute value of unrecorded migration is the Moscow agglomeration. In Nizhny Novgorod and Perm agglomerations, indirect assessment of net migration showed that migration balance was overestimated as per the registered migration data. The identified differences in the volume of net migration between the two sources indicate the unreliability of the data, thus questioning in some urban agglomerations the alignment of the demographic potential with economic development goals.

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