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The OPAL pipeline: controversies about the rules for its use and the question of supply security

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The record volumes of gas supplied via the OPAL and Nord Stream pipeline in recent weeks have been accompanied by controversy over the rules for utilisation of the OPAL pipeline’s capacity. There has long been uncertainty as to the actual content of the decision taken by the European Commission at the end of October 2016, the full text of which was published on 9 January 2017. Both the clash of interests between companies and states about how to use the gas pipeline, and the different interpretations of the impact of Gazprom’s increased utilisation of OPAL due to the new EC regulations on the situation on the gas markets in the EU, including in Central Europe and Poland, have been revealed. Uncertainty concerning the principles of the pipeline’s use has also been increased by Poland’s formal challenge of the EC’s decision.

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The European Commission enables increased use of the OPAL pipeline by Gazprom

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

In response to a request by the German energy regulator, on 28 October the European Commission announced its decision setting out the rules for increased utilisation by the Russian gas company Gazprom (and possibly other companies) of the onshore leg of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, i.e. the OPAL pipeline. This decision raises a series of questions as to its content, its publication procedure, the context of its adoption and its potential consequences. These doubts are aggravated by the lack of clarity of information regarding both the OPAL pipeline itself and the initial rules governing its utilisation (including its exemption from the third party access rule – TPA), and the present decision by the European Commission. As a consequence, the Commission’s decision is provoking conflicting reactions. On the one hand, it is being received (for example by the Polish and the Ukrainian side) as one that enables Gazprom to increase its access to the European market, which could compromise the security of gas supplies to Central Europe and the transit of gas via Ukraine. On the other hand, it is being interpreted as a decision which does not meet the expectations of Gazprom and the OPAL pipeline operator, which sought increased opportunities to book the pipeline’s capacity in the long term. Therefore, it is not known if and when the rules concerning the of OPAL as proposed by the EC will be implemented and, as a consequence, whether the EC’s decision will put an end to the process of negotiating the rules for the German pipeline’s use that has been ongoing for many years.

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UNDP - HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007 – KOSOVA. Energy for Development

Author(s): Kathryn Lisa Stokes / Language(s): English

Instead of an Abstract/Summary here, please refer to the Introduction PDF-file, which includes the Executive Summary

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Will the construction of a nuclear power plant in Belarus exacerbate the country’s energy dependence on Russia?

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

During Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev’s working visit to Minsk on 18 July, Russia and Belarus signed a general contract for the construction of a nuclear power plant in Belarus. The signature brought to an end the complex negotiations which had been underway since January 2009 involving the leadership in Minsk, the Russian government and Atomstroyexport, the Russian company that will be the main contractor of the investment.However, the power plant’s future ownership structure, management arrangements and terms and conditions of profit sharing remain unclear. The Belarusian leadership hopes that with the launch of the nuclear power plant, it will be able to reduce gas imports from Russia, gas being the main resource used in producing heat and electricity in Belarus. This should in turn reduce the costs of energy generation. In addition, Minsk expects that the new investment will allow it to export electricity surpluses to the European Union, including Poland. Agreements concerning the power plant have been concluded over the last year or so and, according to these, Russia has acquired partial control of the Belarusian electricity grid, especially with regard to the transmission of energy to foreign markets. Russia is also the sole creditor and contractor for the investment, and the sole future provider of nuclear fuel. Therefore, implementation of the project will exacerbate Minsk’s already significant dependence on Moscow in energy and political terms.

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Southern Gas Corridor managed by Azerbaijan and Turkey

Author(s): Aleksandra Jarosiewicz / Language(s): English

The Southern Gas Corridor is a European Commission initiative with the aim of facilitating the diversification of the routes and sources of gas imported into Europe in the hope of reducing the EU’s dependence on Russia. Although the Southern Gas Corridor – alongside the EU’s flagship Nabucco project, which constitutes a part of the Corridor – was originally conceived as a means of furthering the interests of the West (officially the EU but in practice also the US), the implementation of the project has become possible almost exclusively thanks to measures taken by Azerbaijan and Turkey.Consequently, a project which the EU had hoped would protect its political interests has indirectly given Azerbaijan and Turkey considerable influence over the EU, since it is those two countries that have effectively begun to define the shape of the Southern Corridor. This became particularly clear when the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) agreement was signed on 26 June 2012. If the EU wishes to ensure that the implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor project retains at least some of its original design, Brussels has little choice but to take into account the preferences of Azerbaijan and Turkey at the expense of its own original plans.

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An inexhaustible source of income? The significance of Belarusian refineries and the outlook for the future

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

Belarus generated a surplus at US$1.9 billion in foreign trade in goods and services in the first four months of 2012 as compared to a deficit of US$2.8 billion for the same timeframe a year earlier. Minsk owes this, its highest positive trade balance since 1991, mainly to a significant increase in exports of petroleum products manufactured by the refineries in Navapolatsk and Mazyr.This is a consequence of the favourable contract for supplies of Russian oil until 2015 which Belarus signed in December last year. This contract has resulted in a de facto resumption of Russia subsidising Belarus. The favourable conditions of Russian oil supplies will allow the Belarusian refineries to remain the driving force of the country’s economy, and the Belarusian government will not allow them to be privatised, which Russia has been seeking for years. The two refineries initiated an ambitious modernisation programme, which is aimed at increasing their output and improving the quality of their production. Owing to this, their share in the market of petroleum products in the region, including on the Polish market, may grow within the next few years.

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The expensive energy revolution in Germany. The implementation of the Energiewende is behind schedule

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż,Konrad Mazur / Language(s): English

One year after the events of Fukushima the implementation of the new German energy strategy adopted in the summer of 2011 is being verified. Business circles, experts and publicists are sounding the alarm. The tempo at which the German economy is being rearranged in order that it uses renewable energy sources is so that it has turned out to be an extremely difficult and expensive task. The implementation of the key guidelines of the new strategy, such as the development of the transmission networks and the construction of new conventional power plants, is meeting increasing resistance in the form of economic and legal difficulties. The development of the green technologies sector is also posing problems. The solar energy industry, for example, is excessively subsidised, whereas the subsidies for the construction of maritime wind farms are too low. At present, only those guidelines of the strategy which are evaluated as economically feasible by investors or which receive adequate financial support from the state have a chance of being carried through. The strategy may also turn out to be unsuccessful due to the lack of a comprehensive coordination of its implementation and the financial burden its introduction entails for both the public and the economy. In the immediate future, the German government will make efforts not only to revise its internal regulations in order to enable the realisation of the energy transformation; it is also likely to undertake a number of measures at the EU forum which will facilitate this realisation. One should expect that the German government will actively support the financing of both the development of the energy networks in EU member states and the development of renewable energy sources in the energy sector.

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Natural resources on the Russian continental shelf: Foreign investors sought… on Russian terms

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, Rosneft, a Russian state-owned oil company, has signed co-operation agreements with three Western corporations: America’s ExxonMobil, Italy’s Eni, and Norway’s Statoil. In exchange for access to Russian oil fields on the continental shelf as minority shareholders, these Western investors will finance and carry out exploration there. They will also offer to Rosnieft technology transfer, staff exchange and the purchase of shares in their assets outside Russia (for example in the North Sea or in South America).

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Gazprom’s position on the Russian gas market weakening

Author(s): Ewa Paszyc / Language(s): English

As the difficulties Gazprom has faced in recent years on the European market have multiplied, so more and more symptoms have appeared which may suggest that the company’s dominant position is deteriorating. The decision made by the Russian government in June 2011 to double the tax Gazprom has to pay on the extraction of gas, which was later approved by parliament, was the first time in many years when the company’s fiscal privileges were withdrawn.The process of Gazprom’s assets being taken over by private companies and business partners from within Vladimir Putin’s closest circle is underway. More and more frequently attempts are being made to challenge the company's monopoly in areas of key importance for the functioning of the entire gas sector, such as Gazprom’s exclusive right to dispose of the Russian gas transportation system and its exports monopoly. Competition from independent gas producers on the domestic market is growing, and Gazprom is gradually being pushed out of some of that market’s most profitable segments (industrial clients).

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German companies strengthen their cooperation with Russian gas suppliers

Author(s): Konrad Mazur / Language(s): English

Germany’s decision to give up the use of nuclear energy will force it to find a conventional low-carbon energy source as a replacement; in the short term, in addition to coal, this is likely to be gas. Due to their continued high debt and the losses associated with the end of atomic power, German companies will not be able to spend large funds on investing in conventional energy. First of all, they will aim to raise capital and repay their debts. The money for this will come from selling off their less profitable assets; this will include sales on the gas market. This will create opportunities for natural gas exporters and extraction companies such as Gazprom to buy back some of the German companies’ assets (electricity companies, for example). The German companies will probably continue to seek to recover the costs incurred in the investment projects already underway, such as Nord Stream, the importance of which will grow after Russian gas imports increase. At the same time, because of their debts, the German companies will seek to minimise their investment costs by selling some shares on the conventional energy market, to Russian corporations among others; the latter would thus be able to increase their stake in the gas market in both Western (Germany, Great Britain, the Benelux countries) and Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic). It is possible that while establishing the details of cooperation between the Russian and German companies, Russia will try to put pressure on Germany to give up competing projects such as Nabucco. However, a well-diversified German energy market should be able to defend itself against attempts to increase German dependence on Russian gas supplies and the dictates of high prices.

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Bulgarian-Russian games in the energy sector: an outcome is getting closer

Author(s): Tomasz Dąborowski / Language(s): English

Bulgaria and Russia are entering the final phase of setting the conditions of their co-operation in the energy sector. A new gas contract is being negotiated because the currently applicable agreements will have expired by the end of 2012. The fate of two major energy projects – whose implementation depends on good co-operation between Sofia and Moscow: the Burgas–Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the construction of a Bulgarian nuclear power plant in Belene with Russian participation – is currently being decided. Another issue ever-present on the agenda is the future of the South Stream gas pipeline promoted by Russia, which is to run through Bulgarian territory. The outcome of all the aforementioned discussions and negotiations will determine for years the model of Bulgarian-Russian relations and may strongly affect the shape of the oil, gas and electricity markets in South-Eastern Europe.

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Forerunners or scaremongers? Germany to abandon nuclear power

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English

The German government’s final decision to abandon nuclear power as of 2022 has been expected for months. However, instead of calming the waters, providing solutions and answering the question ‘What next?’, it has only fanned the flames. Even the adoption of legal amendments enforcing the government’s decision by the German parliament (both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat) in late June and early July has not calmed the situation. It is more than apparent that these decisions have been made under emotional pressure: there was not enough time for accurate calculations to be made and consideration to be given to the consequences of Germany abandoning nuclear power. Chancellor Angela Merkel has so far been unable to fully convince the public that the ‘energy shift is a huge opportunity’ and that this process will be carried out on condition that ‘the supplies remain secure, the climate protected and the whole process economically efficient’. German economic associations have warned against a politically motivated, ill-judged and irreversible abandonment of nuclear energy. They are anxious about an increase in electricity prices, the instability of supplies and environmental damage. The government believes, however, that green technologies will become a new driving force for the German economy and its main export commodity. Before that happens the industry will have to increase its use of electricity produced from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas imported from Russia. This may be exploited by Gazprom which will try to strengthen its position on the German market, and thus in the entire EU.

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The EU internal market – a stake or a tool in European-Russian gas relations

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Since 2010 we have observed a new quality in EU energy policy. It is related to the European Commission’s more or less direct engagement in the bilateral gas relations of a part of the new member states – Poland, Bulgaria and Lithuania – with Russia. Although the long term outcome of this activity of the EC is as yet unclear it seems to be important for several reasons. Firstly it might increase the possibilities of the enforcement of the EU’s directives liberalising the internal gas market and specifically their implementation in individual gas agreements with suppliers from third countries (Gazprom). The consistency and determination of the EC in this field may be decisive for the future direction and depth of the liberalisation of the EU gas market. Furthermore, present developments may lead to an increase in EU and specifically EC competence in the field of energy policy, especially its external dimension.

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Rethinking the external dimension of the European Energy Policy

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The external dimension of the EU Energy Policy, the question about the challenges regarding the effectiveness of the actions in this field and the search for innovative solutions are now one of the key-issues being raised during European energy policy discussions. The European Commission brought up the issue in the "Energy 2020 - A strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy" and questions about the most important directions, goals and tools of the external energy policy are the subject of public consultations announced in December 2010 by DG Energy (the final effect of the consultation and the EC’s work in this field is to be published by in 2011). The external dimension of the EU’s energy policy is also set to be one of the priorities of the Polish Presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2011.

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Gazprom’s expansion in the EU: co-operation or domination?

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The energy sector, especially with regard to the gas trade, is one of the key areas of co-operation between the EU and Russia. However, the form this co-operation has taken has been giving rise to some concern, both in Brussels and in the EU member states. Questions arise as to whether the EU has not become excessively dependent on Russia for energy, and whether the presence of the Russian gas monopoly in the EU does not enable Russian interference with the development of EU energy policy. The objective of this series of OSW reports is to provide facts which will permit an accurat answer to these questions to be formulated.

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Nord Stream on the liberalising EU gas market

Author(s): Łukasz Antas,Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Nord Stream increases Gazprom’s flexibility as far its export routes are concerned; it enables them to be changed with regard to the market or political situation. Nevertheless, this expensive pipeline may contribute to a further drop in the price competitiveness of Russian gas. Accordingly, increasing the attractiveness of Russian fuel and ensuring profitable sales is steadily becoming the main challenge for Gazprom in the EU against a backdrop of increasing competitiveness on the market.

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Енергетична безпека України: методологія системного аналізу та стратегічного планування

Author(s): O. M. Sukhodolya,Yurii M. Kharazishvili,D. G. Bobro,A. Yu. Smenkovsky,G. L. Ryabtsev,S. P. Zavgorodnya / Language(s): Ukrainian

The analytical report examines the problems of assessing and strategizing the level of energy security. A model for assessing the state of energy security in the national security system is proposed, a set of indicators for assessing energy security is formalized, calculations of the state and threats to energy security of Ukraine are performed according to the modern methodology of integrated assessment. Strategic scenarios of energy security development in the context of sustainable development are substantiated. Recommendations for legislative regulation of the activities of entities in the field of energy security have been developed. // Designed for experts, scientists, specialists in the fields of energy, economics, national security, government entities, energy market actors, representatives of public organizations, as well as anyone interested in energy security. The study will be useful in the formulation of energy policy, strategic planning in the field of economic and energy development, energy security, the formation of energy and national security assessments, development and adoption of regulations governing legal relations in this area.

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Енергетична зброя у геополітичній стратегії Росії

Author(s): O. M. Sukhodolya / Language(s): Ukrainian

Is energy an element of the national security system? Is energy used as a tool to achieve political goals? Were the causes of various "energy crises" in the post-Soviet space really purely economic? // Does Russia have a strategy to use energy weapons to realize its geopolitical ambitions? These questions have often been raised in the political, economic, and security discourses of various actors in world politics. For Western countries, they are rather a manifestation of curiosity and theoretical discussion about various possible developments in distant Eastern Europe. At the same time, for the countries of Eastern Europe themselves, the possible answers influenced the formation of policies and the consolidation of national security priorities. Moreover, the principal choice of the direction of integration processes was actually determined. // For Russia, on the other hand, energy has always been an instrument of politics, not economics. This position is clearly traced in the conceptual developments of scientists, strategic documents in the field of national security and practical actions of various institutions to implement the latter. For Russia, the use of energy weapons focused only on finding the most effective methods, tools and instruments for its use. // In recent decades, Russia has enriched the experience of using energy as a political weapon and formed new tools for its use in a hybrid confrontation with the West. Obviously, from now on this will become a constant source of risks to the stability of life in many countries around the world and will require constant monitoring of new types of threats generated by the use of energy weapons. The proposed study is aimed at understanding the conceptual foundations and organizational aspects of energy implementation in the system of ensuring the realization of Russia's national interests in the international arena.

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UNDP - HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2008 – CROATIA. A Climate for Change

Author(s): Seth Landau,Susan Legro,Sandra Vlašić,Čedo Branković,John Callaway,Jakov Dulčić,Marjana Gajić-Čapka,Branko Glamuzina,Inge Heim,Vladimir Kalinski,Dražen Šimleša / Language(s): English

Both the Government and citizens are concerned and interested in the climate change issue. The Governmentis already pursuing several strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing the Human DevelopmentReport to focus on identifying key gaps and to provide specific recommendations on “climate-proofing”human development strategies. In addition, the Report can help to address public concerns: in a recent survey, 8 out of 10 Croatians felt that climate change was really happening, and of that group, 4 out of 10 thought itworse than experts were saying. // While this Report is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change, it does reflectthe breadth and depth of research that has been done in many sectors to date, and it provides a link between aglobal phenomenon and the everyday human development issues facing Croatia. The research and analysis in thisHuman Development Report indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to human developmentin Croatia, it also has the potential to bring several beneficial opportunities. The “climate for change” thatcurrently exists in Croatia will provide the country with the motivation it needs to rise to the challenge.

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The Ungheni-Chișinău Gas Pipeline: Outlook for Before and After 2020

Author(s): Denis Cenușă,Otilia Nuţu,Sergiu Tofilat / Language(s): English

Politically, the Moldovan authorities must prioritize the construction of the pipeline to Chișinău, where the demand for energy is located. One must put aside the negative political attitudes towards Romania and the European Union (EU), and political decision-makers and institutions must focus on facilitating and accelerating the connection to the Western gas market. The volatility of the regional context does not allow for any stop or delay on political grounds and requires swiftness in finding solutions to technical barriers, within the national legal framework. At the investment level, it is necessary to secure the construction operations of the Romanian company Transgaz SA, both in Romania and in Moldova, against the negative impact of the budgetary and fiscal policies of the Romanian authorities, which may affect the budgets allocated for construction. At the same time, priority is given to co-opting the European resources available to facilitate construction operations. Under no circumstances should the Romanian company receive exclusive treatment contrary to Moldovan legislation in the field of public procurement, environmental protection, etc. In technical matters, starting and finishing the construction requires compatibility between the European (European) construction standards used by the company and the (still) obsolete technical standards in Moldova. Also, there is a risk of a shortage of construction capacities, both for materials (pipelines) and labor force (qualified personnel - welders, site managers, etc.). As a horizontal issue for the whole interconnection project, it is essential to ensure a high level of transparency of the procurement process for the private land along the Ungheni-Chișinău pipeline route and for the actual construction of the infrastructure. On one hand, it is necessary to prevent arbitrary and disputable decisions in the land acquisition process, which could cause opposition to the construction of the pipeline. On the other hand, the up-to-date monitoring of the construction steps will ensure the identification of bottlenecks and their removal as swiftly as possible, in line with existing regulatory requirements.

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