№058: Energy and Meat: Towards Better Polish–Saudi Relations

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska,Patrycja Sasnal,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Poland and Saudi Arabia share a counterintuitive commonality of features and interests. Both are regional “middle powers,” and Poland’s energy poor but agriculturally strong economy makes it surprisingly compatible with the energy rich, agriculturally weak Saudi Arabia. Yet bilateral relations between these nations leave a lot to be desired. There are at least three domains in which relatively little effort could bring much progress in releasing the potential of these relations.

№056: How the European Union Is Shaping the Gas Market in Poland

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Gas markets in the European Union are becoming more liberalised and integrated. But this model is rather typical only for North and Western Europe, while Poland significantly lags behind. Polish authorities only recently made some strategic decisions, but they constitute merely boundaries for a well functioning and liquid gas market in Poland integrated with the EU system. While the pace and scope of the necessary changes must be the subject of a reliable, expert debate, too much hesitation is already creating unnecessary uncertainty. Poland risks missing the opportunity to become an important player in Central and Eastern Europe.

№049: German and Polish Energy Policies: Is Cooperation Possible?

Author(s): Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Kirsten Westphal / Language(s): English

№044: Nabucco West—Perspectives and Relevance: The Reconfigured Scenario

Author(s): Anita Sobják,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The aim of the Nabucco West gas pipeline is to supply Eastern and Central Europe with gas from sources other than Russia. Initially, the most likely source for Nabucco West would be Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz Phase 2, which would be delivered through the Turkish-Azerbaijani Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). The 8 October meeting in Vienna of energy ministers from countries in the Nabucco West consortium and their counterpart from Azerbaijan suggests that the project is realistic. Nevertheless, the TANAP company has yet to choose whether to connect with this pipeline or the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which would supply the Italian market. A decision is due in 2013. This paper examines the impact that TANAP and Nabucco West could have, if implemented, on the energy security of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria.

№037: Energy Policy in the Baltic States—United or Separate?

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Energy security is a priority for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—three former Soviet republics that are still dependent on supplies from Russia. Although the three countries are often regarded as relatively homogeneous, their energy policy indicates visible differences and their priorities do not necessarily go together. At the same time, such small states with limited potential for large and expensive projects seem to be doomed to cooperate, especially that investments in infrastructure at the regional level are required. The author of this Policy Paper explains the differences in the energy policies of the Baltic States and elaborates on chances for coordinated efforts towards greater energy security.

№028: Ukraine’s First Year in the Energy Community: Restart Needed

Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s membership in the Energy Community has recently come under intense scrutiny because of apparent disconnect between the expectations of the Ukrainian authorities on the one side, and of the organisation’s representatives on the other. The paper points to the possible reasons for this disturbing divergence, highlighting in particular the difficulties in reforming the Ukrainian energy sector. Some of the delays in meeting the legal obligations resulting from the membership in the Community can be attributed to the ongoing negotiations with Russia over the prices of imported natural gas. Although Ukraine’s long-term, strategic interests in the area of natural gas transit and electricity production could help bridge the differences with the Energy Community, there is no room for complacency on either side. The author argues that progress towards Ukraine’s further integration with the EU in the energy field is not a foregone conclusion, and a rethinking of both the pace and the instruments of cooperation is urgently needed.

The 'Oil Friendship’: the state of and prospects for Russian-Chinese energy cooperation

Author(s): Marcin Kaczmarski,Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

The oil sector has been the major element of Russian-Chinese energy cooperation. The years 2013–2015 saw a significant increase in the volume of crude oil exported by Russia. In 2015, China became the main importer of Russian oil; Russia became the second largest supplier of oil to the Chinese market, after Saudi Arabia. From Beijing’s perspective, supplies of Russian oil are of strategic importance because the main supply routes are overland routes. Russia, for its part, is interested in boosting its export because of its deteriorating position on the European market, which hitherto has been considered a strategic market.Cooperation in the field of natural gas has been less advanced; so far Russia has exported only insignificant amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China. China is less dependent on the import of gas (its own production covers around 70% of the demand). Beijing has been dynamically developing its LNG infrastructure, and has at its disposal gas pipelines which connect China with producer countries in Central Asia. Additionally, all the projects carried out within the framework of Russian-Chinese gas cooperation are being hampered by the financial problems Moscow is experiencing.

Path to Prosperity or Road to Ruin? Shale Gas Under Political Scrutiny

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The report seeks to explore the reasons behind the stark polarization of the European debate about shale gas. Supporters of exploration and production from shale gas deposits consider it an opportunity to significantly alter the political and economic rules affecting Europe’s energy security. Critics tend to interpret the development of the shale gas industry as a threat to the environment, a challenge to the existing strategies of limiting the green-house gas emissions, or a competition to the well-entrenched economic interests.Thus the report analyzes the politics of shale gas, looking into debates in the select European countries and probing the activities of the EU institutions (the EU Council, the Commission, the European Parliament) in this sphere. The authors investigated a broad array of factors that influence the preferences of the key players: approach to the optimal energy mix, desired level of diversification of energy supplies, or the perception of natural gas imports from an energy security angle. In addition, the report highlights the significance of the North American experience with shale gas exploration and development as a crucial determinant of the European debate.

Three Seas Initiative: Benefits for Regional Gas Markets and the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Central and Eastern European countries have distinct potential for investment in gas infrastructure to meet expected growth in demand. The “Three Seas” initiative will help coordinate policy among its participants and promote the interests of the region to strengthen energy security and develop a competitive gas market. Not only will Three Seas countries benefit from this but also the EU as a whole.

Legal Issues Related to the Application of the Gas Directive to Gas Pipelines between the EU and Third Countries

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The EU gas directive in force regulates issues pertaining to the transmission of gas from third countries to the Union but is ambiguous. It can be interpreted in such a way that gas pipelines from these countries are not covered by EU energy regulations, leaving room for abuse. From the point of view of both Poland and the whole Union, it would be desirable to change the directive so that it clearly applies to EU legislation regarding gas pipelines used for the import of gas into the Union.

LNG Developing Rapidly in the Baltic Sea Region

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

In the Baltic Sea region, the liquefied natural gas market has developed dynamically and new methods of LNG transport and use stimulate infrastructure investments. Poland will compete on this market with other regional gas-importing countries and with Russia, which is developing its own LNG potential. Once the LNG terminal expansion in Poland is complete, additional volumes of natural gas can be sold to new clients needing small-scale LNG supplies and in the transport sector.

Negotiations between the European Commission and Russia on Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The European Commission has proposed that the legal status of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be settled with an agreement between Russia and the European Union, negotiated by the EC on behalf of the Member States. Support for the proposal should be conditional on the agreement confirming, without exception, the application of EU energy law to the entire pipeline. The consequence of such a position may also entail the opening of discussions on the status of Nord Stream 1.

European Commission Gives Go-Ahead to Hungary’s Nuclear Power Plant Expansion

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The European Commission has given a green light to planned work on the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. This means Russian state-owned company Rosatom can carry out the project in which it was directly awarded the construction of two new reactors. The circumstances behind the signing of the agreement, part of which is classified, may indicate the existence of broader energy arrangements between Hungary and Russia and could translate into their further strengthening political cooperation. The EC’s decision approving this use of state aid also contains guidelines Poland may use for future nuclear projects.

Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced a break with the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which in his view adversely affects business in the United States. Among his stated aims were taking the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, cutting off financing for climate protection in developing countries, and repealing federal regulations aimed at reducing emissions and the use of fossil fuels. The limitation of actions related to climate protection in the U.S. seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the global consequences will depend on the specific decisions of the new administration.

“Polish Energy Policy by 2050” in light of the EU’s Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy

Author(s): Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

The new global climate agreement struck in Paris at the end of 2015 recommends its signatories to formulate long-term greenhouse gas emission development strategies by 2020. In March 2016 the European Commission outlined a plan to start preparations of the EU’s low-carbon development strategy. The Commission’s recommendation was welcomed by the European Council. Furthermore, several EU Member States are currently developing their own long-term climate and energy scenarios. In this context Poland also should start to develop its own long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy. Ongoing work on the long-term energy scenario Polish Energy Policy by 2050, which should take into account both the EU’s and EU Member States’ climate policies, offers a good opportunity to do so.

Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

For Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, exemplary cooperation with EU countries is crucial. Because the EU’s nuclear sector is well-structured, the use of Rosatom to influence the bloc geopolitically is limited, and thus its presence on the prestigious EU market primarily serves to construct a positive image of the company. EU Member States should ensure that the nuclear relationship with Russia is also characterised by reciprocity.

Nord Stream 2 dzieli Zachód

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Rafał Bajczuk,Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): Polish

W ostatnich tygodniach nasiliła się amerykańska ofensywa przeciw projektowi Nord Stream 2. Waszyngton naciska na Berlin, by wycofał poparcie dla projektu i grozi użyciem coraz mocniejszych instrumentów – w tym objęciem sankcjami europejskich firm zaangażowanych w realizację gazociągu. Narastający spór pomiędzy USA i Niemcami dotyczący Nord Stream 2 wpisuje się w kontrowersje w Unii Europejskiej dotyczące projektu i pogłębia podziały pomiędzy państwami członkowskimi. Uwypukla różnice w podejściu do współpracy gazowej z Rosją i rozwoju strategicznych rosyjskich projektów gazociągowych. Podczas gdy w optyce Niemiec, ale też Austrii, Holandii i kilku innych państw dominuje podejście komercyjne, Polska, państwa bałtyckie, Dania oraz USA łączą projekt także z kwestiami bezpieczeństwa, nie tylko energetycznego. Konflikt o Nord Stream 2 wpisuje się też w rozgrywkę o przyszły kształt rynku gazu w Europie, rolę poszczególnych dostawców zewnętrznych (głównie Rosji, ale w coraz większej mierze także USA) oraz koncernów, w tym Gazpromu i jego europejskich partnerów. Sprawa Nord Stream 2 stała się poważnym wyzwaniem dla spójności UE oraz jej stosunków z USA i Rosją.

Ekspansja na koszt państwa: Novatek motorem rosyjskiego sektora LNG

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): Polish

24 maja podczas Międzynarodowego Forum Gospodarczego w Petersburgu zostało podpisane porozumienie o zakupie przez francuski koncern energetyczny Total 10% udziałów w projekcie Arktyczny LNG 2 za 2,55 mld USD. Przedsięwzięcie to, przewidujące budowę zakładu skraplania gazu na Półwyspie Gydańskim, jest realizowane przez rosyjską spółkę Novatek – największego prywatnego producenta gazu w Rosji. W grudniu 2017 roku firma uruchomiła pierwszą linię produkcyjną terminalu LNG na Półwyspie Jamalskim – projekt Jamał LNG. Ponadto zamiar realizacji własnych projektów LNG podtrzymują wciąż Gazprom i Rosnieft’.

№33: How to Fix the European Shale Gas Debate? Lessons Learned from Public Consultations on Unconventional Fossil Fuels

Author(s): Agata Gostyńska,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

The European shale gas debate is out of balance, making it increasingly difficult to conduct an across the board, fact-based assessment of the pros and cons of tapping into unconventional hydrocarbon deposits. EU Member States are divided in their approaches to the issue. Their attitudes range from an almost unchecked enthusiasm to deep wariness towards the shale gas industry. In addition, the European public has recently shown it is locked between the demands for more information about the specifics of shale gas development, and a static, often outdated image of the industry. EU institutions to date have largely either aggravated this polarisation or have failed to introduce solutions that would make the debate less toxic. However, as the authors of the paper argue, the European Commission could become a lynchpin in making the most of the ongoing efforts of the EU Member States and creating robust lines of communication with industry stakeholders.

Nowa strategia energetyczna Rosji – optymistyczne plany w niepewnych czasach

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): Polish

On April 2, the Russian government adopted the Russian Federation's Energy Strategy until 2035. Is this is the third edition of the document adopted in the last two decades and at the same time the most synthetic. On the one hand, subsequent versions were intended to present the condition of the Russian the energy sector and its main challenges and, on the other hand, were a political signal for foreign partners, encouraging them to develop energy cooperation with Russia. The latest energy strategy was approved with a delay of six years, for which were influenced by both economic factors - dynamic changes in the energy markets - as well as political - Russia's conflict with the West in connection with the aggression against Ukraine or the growing instability in the Middle East. The new strategy articulates the challenges more clearly than the previous ones internal and external facing the national energy sector. It is also new a closer alignment of energy policy objectives with the priorities set by Vladimir Putin under the so-called May decrees, adopted after the 2018 presidential election The document is also an illustration of the current balance of power in the Russian energy sector, he points out on the growing importance of Novatek and the LNG projects developed by the concern, while at the same time maintaining Gazprom's privileges (maintaining a monopoly on gas exports via the pipeline system). At the same time, the document indicates the limited possibilities of strengthening the position of others, less influential market participants. Although the assumptions of the new strategy are more realistic than the indicators projected in its previous version, however, they still have very ambitious shape (especially in relation to exports of coal, oil and gas). So there are serious ones doubts as to whether, in the face of the dynamically changing situation on the energy markets, no they will become obsolete in the next few months.