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Między Bonn a Katowicami – wyzwania globalnych negocjacji klimatycznych

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Szczyt klimatyczny w Bonn (COP23) w listopadzie 2017 r. miał przybliżyć rozstrzygnięcia w sprawie zasad monitorowania krajowych działań na rzecz ochrony klimatu. Powszechność tych działań, czyli objęcie nimi zarówno państw rozwiniętych, jak i rozwijających się, jest podstawą porozumienia paryskiego. W Bonn jednak ponownie zarysowały się podziały między tymi blokami, co utrudnia zawarcie kompromisu. Jego osiągnięcie będzie priorytetem Polski jako gospodarza kolejnego szczytu klimatycznego (COP24), w grudniu 2018 r. w Katowicach.

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Australia na globalnym rynku gazu skroplonego

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): Polish

Korzystne położenie geograficzne i zliberalizowany handel surowcami energetycznymi sprawiają, że Australia z powodzeniem konkuruje o najbardziej lukratywne i perspektywiczne rynki dostaw gazu skroplonego (LNG). Do końca dekady będzie jego największym eksporterem. Tamtejsza branża musi jednak stawić czoła wyzwaniom związanym z dostępnością odpowiedniej ilości gazu na eksport. Z punktu widzenia importerów LNG, w tym Polski, powodzenie tych starań doprowadzi do wzmocnienia sprzyjających tendencji rynkowych.

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Elektroenergetyka – kolejny cel państw bałtyckich w uniezależnianiu się od Rosji

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): Polish

Litwa, Łotwa i Estonia, chcąc ograniczyć zależność od Rosji, dążą przy wsparciu Komisji Europejskiej do synchronizacji z systemem europejskich sieci elektroenergetycznych. Osiągnięty kompromis dotyczący połączenia przez Polskę nie precyzuje jednak szczegółów technicznych. W tej sprawie państwa bałtyckie nie są jednomyślne. Dalsze wsparcie dla integracji w sektorze energii leży w interesie Polski, ale powinno być uwarunkowane zgodnością trzech państw oraz zapewnieniem finansowania z Unii Europejskiej.

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The Collapse of Oil Prices: Economic and Political Implications

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Together with the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic slowdown caused by the restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the demand for oil has fallen, followed by prices. These drops were further fuelled by the collapse of the OPEC+ summit, which was to limit output and increase prices, and the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Russia for market share. As a result, oil prices have fallen to record lows, which together with oversupply and the expected global recession, will pose a serious challenge for the biggest producers and countries dependent on oil export revenue.

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Załamanie cen ropy naftowej – konsekwencje gospodarcze i polityczne

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Wraz z pandemią COVID-19 i związanym z nią spowolnieniem gospodarczym zmniejszył się popyt na ropę naftową i jej ceny. Ich spadek pogłębiło zerwanie porozumienia OPEC+, mającego stabilizować rynek, oraz rywalizacja Arabii Saudyjskiej i Rosji o udziały w tym rynku. W efekcie ceny ropy spadły do rekordowo niskich poziomów, co – obok nadpodaży surowca i kryzysu gospodarczego – będzie poważnym wyzwaniem dla największych producentów oraz państw uzależnionych od eksportu ropy.

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Russia’s nuclear project in Hungary: France’s growing role

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki,Ilona Gizińska / Language(s): English

Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Hungarian government has declared it is fully determined to build the Paks II Nuclear Power Plant, the main contractor of which is Russia’s Rosatom. Several important decisions have been taken over recent weeks to remove the barriers to implementing the project. For example, Hungary and Russia have renegotiated the contracts that were signed nearly a decade ago and were initially accepted by the European Commission. When the German government refused to approve Siemens’ participation in the consortium supplying components to the power plant, France’s Framatome began playing a greater role in the project. According to the current plan, the construction of Paks II is set to start this year, and the first of the two units are to be completed in 2032. However, the project is still facing a great deal of technical, financial and political challenges that may hinder or even prevent it from being completed. To this end, Budapest is seeking the support of France; it hopes above all that Paris will keep resisting the proposals to impose EU sanctions on the Russian nuclear sector.

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U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy - The Consequences for Its Allies

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

The Biden administration is increasing the U.S. capabilities in countering the effects of climate change in the Arctic, an aim overlapping the rivalry with Russia and China in this region. The U.S. announced increasing investments in infrastructure projects and defence, for example, modernising the Coast Guard’s Arctic fleet. The planned measures provide an opportunity for closer American cooperation with their allies and may mark the beginning of a regional division of labour in the area of shared defence.

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European Electricity Market Reform Faces Dilemmas

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

The electricity market reform proposed by the European Commission (EC) on 14 March is part of a structural response to the energy crisis. It continues the trend of further integration of the European energy market and seeks to provide stable conditions for the development of RES. The legislative proposals is currently being negotiated by the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of the EU. Reconciling the interests of Member States, the electricity sector, investors and consumers remain a challenge. There is little chance that the postulates regarding the extension of the capacity mechanisms, which are important from Poland’s perspective, will be taken into account.

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Small Island Developing States: A Strong Interest Group on Climate

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are an important and formalised group of interests in international climate negotiations. Although they contribute very little to climate change, they are the most vulnerable to its effects. That is why they urge developed countries to take responsibility for this global problem and to increase financial aid to its victims. Although SIDS face opposition to their position, their consistent lobbying may lead to a modification of perceptions of climate change.

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The Energy Crisis in France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The global energy crisis has highlighted the weakness in the French energy sector. The nuclear branch, which was supposed to ensure the state’s independence, is struggling with technological problems, the state-owned EDF group is heavily indebted, and production from renewables remains below expectations. The initial government reaction has been aimed at preventing an uncontrolled increase in fuel and energy prices. Now, doubts have been raised about the French president’s ambitious plan for the structural recovery of the energy sector, presented on 10 February, over its financial and technical feasibility.

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Russia’s Use of Gas Blackmail Against the EU

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Russia has cut gas supplies to the EU to force concessions on the status of Donbas and the security architecture in Europe, leading to a deeper energy crisis in the EU. If these supplies are stopped, which is unlikely, LNG imports probably would be insufficient to meet the demand. With Germany halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline, Russia is likely to keep supply level slow, risking a more serious energy crisis in winter 2022/23 due to difficulties in building up sufficient gas stocks over the summer.

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The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU’s Arab Neighbourhood

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short-term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.

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New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.

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Prospects for the Diversification of Natural Gas and Oil Supply Sources to Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government opposes the imposition of EU sanctions on the import of energy resources - especially gas - from Russia. The authorities explain this decision with Hungary’s high level of dependence on these resources and lack of alternative sources that are not more expensive. In fact, this stance is a consequence of Hungary’s long-standing policy towards Russia of closer political relations and energy cooperation since 2010, and the related lack of investment in the diversification of energy sources. Even if there is political will, which the authorities have not shown so far, it will be difficult for Hungary to free itself from Russian gas in the short term. The possibilities of giving up Russian oil are higher, but Hungary is unlikely to support an embargo on it this year.

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Biogases: An Element of EU Energy Security

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The development of European biogas is one way to make the EU independent of Russian gas supplies. It also would make a significant contribution to the implementation of the ideas underpinning the European Green Deal, including the energy transition and circular economy. The current limitations on the growth of this sector, such as financing issues, have become less important in the face of the consequences of the war in Ukraine. From Poland’s perspective, it is important to maximise the benefits for Polish businesses when developing the EU’s biogas potential.

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The EU’s Difficulties with Increasing Gas Imports from Arab States

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In mid-June, the EU signed an agreement with Egypt and Israel as part of an effort to increase gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa. However, among the obstacles to replacing Russian supplies with gas from this region are the limited infrastructure and the high demands of exporting countries. To increase the chances of success in this area, the EU may propose to combine gas purchase contracts with investments in the development of local renewable energy sources and new technologies.

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States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.

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IPCEI Gaining Momentum in the Development of European Industry

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

To sustain the dynamic development of new technologies and the accelerating transformation of the EU economy, the mechanism of important projects of common European interest, IPCEI, is gaining importance. Created as a special form of public aid to strengthen European industry, IPCEI can contribute to the implementation of breakthrough solutions, including in the production and storage of hydrogen as energy or the development of battery technology, and to strengthen the global competitiveness of the Union. Its potential for disturbing competition in the internal market, though, remains a challenge.

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Surviving the Winter: France’s Preparations for a New Energy Crisis

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Faced with the threat of a cut-off of gas supplies from Russia and the temporary shutdown of a large number of reactors, the French government has begun to encourage citizens and businesses to reduce their gas and electricity consumption. The most effective savings incentive would be a partial price release, but the resulting social discontent and recession could destabilise the political situation in the country, including undermining French support for Ukraine. The authorities are therefore promising to further limit price increases, while seeking alternative sources of electricity and gas supply.

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Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.

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