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Mali after the Coup

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In August, a group of officers overthrew the president of Mali. This further complicated the fragile situation in the country. While the military has delegated some power to a transitional civilian government, it wants to retain influence over major decisions. The EU’s priority remains the strengthening of Malian institutions so that the state ceases to be a seedbed of jihadism and criminality that threatens Europe’s neighbourhood.

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Final Days before the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The U.S. presidential election is 3 November, but millions of Americans have already voted. The fear of COVID-19 and strong support of their chosen candidate from the early stage of the campaign prompted voters to participate in early voting. While Democratic challenger Joe Biden is indicated as the likely winner, it is possible that the polls do not reflect Donald Trump’s actual chances of re-election. At the same time, the president has signalled that he might not concede defeat because of what he has described as a fraudulent process of votes by post. The probability is high of political instability until the next president is sworn in January 2021.

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A Never-Ending Story: The Fight Against Corruption in Ukraine

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Although Volodymyr Zelensky has identified the fight against corruption as one of the most important objectives of his presidency, he has not yet achieved success in this area. A large part of the Ukrainian political elite is trying to sabotage the activities of institutions fighting corruption. They are doing this through the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU), which has paralysed the national anti-corruption system with its judgments. The success of the fight against corruption in Ukraine depends on reform of the CCU and pressure from the IMF and the EU. Poland can support these efforts to reduce the scale of smuggling from Ukraine and improve the investment climate for Polish companies.

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Second Wave of COVID-19 in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel was among the states that managed to mitigate the first wave of COVID-19. However, inconsistent actions in lifting the restrictions and a decline in social discipline have led to a sharp increase in morbidity. That forced Israel to be first country in the world to introduce a second lockdown, which is now being lifted. The political consequences of the second wave are a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increased tensions within the coalition, both of which enhance the chances of another cabinet crisis, including an early elections scenario.

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France: New Lockdown Worsens Old Crises

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

A robust increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections forced the French authorities to introduce a new lockdown from 30 October. This attempt to limit the spread of the pandemic coincides with rising apprehension after recent terrorist attacks and a worsening economy. The government of Jean Castex is only a few months old but has to cope not only with the introduction of a recovery plan but also the need to reinforce the sense of security among the people of France.

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Prospects for Unification Talks in Cyprus

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

At the beginning of November, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders met for the first time after the presidential election in the de facto state of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Politicians have declared their willingness to return to the reunification talks, but a compromise is unlikely. As a consequence, the new president of the TRNC, supported by Turkey, will strive to solve the Cyprus problem by creating two independent states. This poses a serious challenge to the European Union, which advocates the unification of Cyprus as a federal state.

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China’s Preparations for the Second Wave of COVID-19

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

A very low increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections has been recorded for many months in China. However, local outbreaks occur regularly and the Chinese authorities expect the number to rise towards the end of the year. The authorities have begun limiting the entry of foreigners to China and are speeding up the completion of work on a vaccine. China is taking advantage of the relatively stable situation to increase its influence in Central Europe, Asia, and Latin America at the expense of the U.S. and the EU. As a result, the scope for Union cooperation with China to combat the pandemic remains limited.

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Navalny’s Significance in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The attempt to poison Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny exacerbated relations between Western countries and Russia and led to increased recognition and sympathy towards him among Russians. For medical reasons, Navalny will remain abroad for the next few months; however, he has declared his intention to return to Russia to prepare the political base for elections to the State Duma, which will take place in September 2021. The significance of Navalny in internal Russian politics will increase, but it will not threaten the position of President Vladimir Putin.

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№113: Kim Jong Un’s First Decade

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.

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№115: Socioeconomic and Security Challenges to Climate Change Policy in Britain

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The United Kingdom remains one of the leaders in climate change policy in Europe and globally. The green transformation reached consensus among all major political parties and enjoys broad public support. Despite these favourable conditions, the public debate related to it has been revealing strong tensions over the costs, scale, and pace. In recent months, this debate has significantly deepened in the security dimension. Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has placed the issues of control over critical infrastructure, self-sufficiency, and security of energy supplies at the centre of the British climate debate. For these reasons, the UK is an interesting case study highlighting the challenges for the climate transformation in Poland.

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№103: “Unable to Leave”: Refugee Management and the Forgotten Refugee Crises in the Lake Chad Basin

Author(s): Viljar Haavik,Alessio Iocchi / Language(s): English

The refugees in the Lake Chad Basin are at the very bottom of a hierarchy shaped by the inability of the international community to handle the global refugee crisis. Unable to leave, the Lake Chad Basin refugees have become nearly invisible as they are situated in poor and vulnerable states bearing the brunt of the crisis with little to share.

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№108: Norway’s and Poland’s Experience with Migration: A Comparative Perspective

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Norway transitioned from a net emigration to a net immigration country decades earlier than Poland. However, as Poland rapidly undergoes this transformation, it seems particularly important to draw on the experience of other countries in shaping national migration policy that enables benefits both for the host country and immigrants. In this context, Norway may be seen as a source of inspiration in developing a national reception and integration system for migrants, as well as in programming development assistance. As a Schengen and European Economic Area member, Norway is also a partner in implementing EU migration policy.

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№183: Austria’s Modus Operandi: Variable Neutrality in Action

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Austria’s 65-year-old neutrality has been preserved through political consensus and growing public support. Over the years it has been a source of prestige for the country but also intense internal debate, especially before entering the EU or the establishment of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). Nowadays, it serves not only as a catchphrase for politicians but also as a political tool used internally and externally to secure Austria’s interest. In the internal dimension, it is used to legitimise various policies while in the latter case, its aim is to influence global affairs or to force better relations with other states, even at the expense of the country’s reputation as “permanently neutral.”

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Greece Votes in Early Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The pro-European, centre-right New Democracy party led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has led Greece since 2019, decisively won the early parliamentary elections on 21 May. However, the party will not form new cabinet but will seek new early elections, which will be held according to a new electoral law. New Democracy hopes that the result will enable it to govern on its own. The temporary political crisis and rule by a technical government will be short-lived and will not change Greek foreign policy.

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“V4 for Citizens” - Czechia Assumes Presidency of the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Czechia’s presidency of the Visegrad Group (V4), which began on 1 July, comes amid the biggest crisis in the functioning of this format in years. In the face of clear differences in reaction to the Russia-Ukraine war, the government of Petr Fiala proposes minimalist functioning of the V4. The Group is likely to focus on social cooperation, with low dynamics in other areas. Thus, the Czech presidency will resemble the previous Slovak one.

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An Easy and Quick Re-election for the President of Austria

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Alexander Van der Bellen won 56.7% of the vote in the elections in Austria on 9 October, and thus was re-elected in the first round for the next six years. This means in domestic politics a continuation of restraint in interfering in inter-party disputes, and in foreign politics, further verification of Austria’s continued relations with Russia and moderate involvement in the development of regional cooperation.

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Distrust Reigned at COP27

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The COP27 climate summit, which took place on 6-20 November 2022 in Sharmel-Sheikh, Egypt, led to one important conclusion. The parties to the Conference approved the creation of a loss and damage fund for countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, the decision making process and the course of the negotiations make it difficult to talk about the success of the climate summit. The future implementation of the provisions of COP27 is also questionable, as countries that previously promised to provide funds for adaptation and mitigation have not yet fulfilled their obligations.

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Local and Regional Elections in Russia in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The three-day regional and local elections in Russia concluded on 11 September. Through blocking and intimidation of independent candidates and electoral manipulation, the victory went to the party in power, United Russia. The Russian authorities failed, however, to hold referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine, citing “security reasons”, coinciding with the effective counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region.

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The Political and Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned. This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.

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Emmanuel Macron Re-elected as President of France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election on April 24, 2022, obtaining 58.54% of the vote. While Macron's advantage is higher than expected, it was achieved with a lower turnout, which is evidence of a declining interest in political life in France, especially among young people. The newest challenges for the president will be to maintain the majority in the National Assembly after the June elections, and to continue reforms to increase the competitiveness of the French economy in the difficult macroeconomic conditions.

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