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Round-Table on Elements of the Security Policy - Foreign and Economic Policy -

Author(s): Bisera Turković,Milovan Blagojević,Hansjorg Kretschmer,István Gyarmati,Željko Bilbija,Mijo Anić,Jadranko Prlić / Language(s): English

Today’s round-table is a continuation of the work on the project of a state-level security policy for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Centre for Security Studies wishes to give its own contribution to the development of this important theme, considering that there exists no country that can afford to be without a security policy. In considering that the time has come for Bosnia and Herzegovina when there needs to be an open discussion, the Centre for Security Studies has decided, through a seminar an a couple of round-tables, to initiate an open and structured discussion, which would contribute through an exchange of views, to approach and discover responses to the security threats that we and the world in which we live is currently faced with. The day before yesterday, we were witness to one of the security problems that has arisen and from which nobody is safe, and that is terrorism. Unfortunately, terrorism is not somewhere very far away from us; it is a threat to us in this country as well. We naturally condemn it and express our sincere sympathies and condolences to the families of those who were killed. During the previous seminar, we spoke about the concept of security policy what is expected from such a document. What are the interests on which the security policy of Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to be based? What are the interests we wish to defend or promote? What are the priorities? What are the objectives that need to be created in the short and long term? The security policy of Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to protect the citizens, peoples and state from foreign and internal threats of any kind, taking into consideration the level of security and level of guarantees that the global Euro-Atlantic and European security system can provide. During our last seminar, among other items we spoke about the aims of Bosnian integration into the Euro-Atlantic and European security environment, taking into account the risk factors that current jeopardise the security of this country. Considering that only mutual arrangements of the citizens and peoples of this country can achieve lasting results, to point to their real interests, the Centre for Security Studies decided to hold a round-table in September, October and November – to endeavour to discuss the founding elements of the security policy about which we have agreed.

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Survey results - Dialogue on the Constitution of BiH

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Survey results - Dialogue on the Constitution of BiH

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Rezultati istraživanja - Dijalog o Ustavu BiH

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bosnian

Rezultati istraživanja - Dijalog o Ustavu BiH

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Security Sector Reform and Media in BiH - The Way Ahead to Security Sector Good Governance

Author(s): Mariangela Fittipaldi / Language(s): English

The Security Sector Reform (SSR) in BiH is proving to be a major step forward in the institutional building process. Although an ongoing development, it has recently been characterized by some important improvements, especially as far as the adoption of the new Defence Law is concerned. In order to foster changes towards security sector good governance, the role played by the main civil society sections in monitoring the reform is crucial. Thus, the forthcoming years will be particularly important with regard to the extent to which media, representatives of civil society, centres of research, and NGOs will be able to participate in the process and constantly monitor the changes in the security landscape of the country. In particular, media play a vital role in providing an essential link between civil society and government. This is even more necessary with regard to security, the supply of this public good being an essential pre-condition to economic and political development. When media are independent, regulated and developed, the effectiveness of the cited role is more likely to come into force. Consequently, the absence of these conditions would seriously impair the possibility for media to function like a «watchdog» with regard to decision-making and policies adopted. On the other hand, the model of good governance of the security sector assumes a wider participation of civil society in the evolution of the security sector. This implies that several efforts have to be undertaken in order to keep the public informed on security issues. Therefore, a full participation of media in the SSR process would contribute to make the international and local institutions in charge of defence and security matters accountable and transparent toward the public. This report analyses media's coverage of security issues in BiH. Through an assessment of the complex relationship between media and the security sector in the country, the openness of the security sector itself will be taken into account. The ultimate aim of this study is to evaluate the pace to a good governance of the security sector for BiH. The report will use two important guidelines for enquiries. On the one hand, the extent to which the security institutions in BiH are accountable, open and responsible to media will be evaluated. The issue will be considered of primary concern since a substantial part of the relation at stake depends on the structure of the security sector. The research will further focus on the extent to which media are open to security institutions and specialized in dealing with security issues, the obstacles to quality journalism and capacity to report on security-related issues being one of the central aspects of media relation to security. Finally, the report will be partly based on the theoretical model of security governance, which assumes an increasing interaction between media and the state. Although many changes have taken place in the organisation of the security sectors of the most advanced democracies, a full media involvement is far from being reached since the extent of participation is dependent on both structural and contingent limits entailing the model itself.

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Ured visokog predstavnika i reforma sigurnosnog sektora u Bosni i Hercegovini

Author(s): Denis Hadžović / Language(s): Bosnian

U post-ratnom periodu Bosna i Hercegovina je ostvarila značajan napredak u procesu izgradnje mira koji se, između ostalog, ogleda i u uspostavljanju državnih institucija u oblasti sigurnosti. Njihovo osnivanje predstavlja bitan doprinos smanjenu mogućnosti izbijanja ponovnog sukoba u BiH i pomoć na njenom putu integracije u euro-atlanske strukture. Nemjerljiv doprinos ovim ostvarenjima pružila je međunarodna zajednica, prvenstveno djelovanjem kroz Ured visokog predstavnika (OHR) u BiH, ad hoc institucije uspostavljene da nadgleda implementaciju civilnog dijela Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma. Zahvaljujući naporima OHR-a i međunarodne zajednice Bosna i Hercegovina provodi jednu od najuspješnijih reformi pravosudnog sistema u regionu i uspostavila je jedinstvene oružane snage, obavještajno sigurnosnu agenciju, graničnu službu, državnu agenciju za istraživanje i zaštitu, carinsku službu i državni sud. Ove institucije uspostavljene su ili zakonima nametnutim direktno od strane OHR-a ili indirektno, uz njegov permanentan pritisak, koji je u krajnjoj instanci vodio do kompromisa među političkim akterima u Bosni i Hercegovini. Imajući ove činjenice u vidu, namjera autora bila je da ovim istraživanjem ponudi svoj skromni doprinos praktičarima i akademskim djelatnicima koji se bave pitanjima izgradnje mira u svijetu. Jedan od primarnih ciljeva ponuđenog istraživanja je da podrži daljnji razvoj ovih procesa, te pruži uvid u iskustvo OHR-a stečeno tokom prvođenja aktivnosti na izgradnji mira u BiH, sa posebnim osvrtom na reformu sigurnosnog sektora. Ovom prilikom želim iskazati posebnu zahvalnost Ženevskom centru za demokratski nadzor oružanih snaga (DCAF) na finansijskoj podršci koja je omogućila realizaciju ovog istraživanja, kao i osoblju Centra za sigurnosne studije, Arminu Kržaliću, Jasminu Ramoviću, Sanji Mihajlović, Lani Tančici i Andrei Teftedariji koja je u tom periodu stažirala u Centru, za njihov nemjerljiv doprinos na izradi ovog istraživanja. Ujedno bih se zahvalio i svima onima koji su na direktan ili indirektan način doprinijeli provođenju istraživanja, bilo putem intervuisanja, bilo putem autorskog rada na literaturi koja je korištena za potrebe istraživanja, kao i biblioteci Centra za obuku za operacije potpore miru u Sarajevu (PSOTC – Peace Support Operations Training Centre). Nadamo se da će predočeno istraživanja, koje ujedno predstavlja i pogled iz perspektive lokalnih aktera, ostvariti svoju svrhu te pružiti doprinos raspravama koje se vode po pitanjima izgradnje mira u svijetu i reformi sigurnosnog sektora u post-konfliktnim društvima.

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Pivot to the east. Russia’s transport policy

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

As a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has been ongoing since 2014, and the ensuing Western sanctions, Russia has reoriented its foreign trade towards the East. This is a permanent shift which stems from Russia’s security objectives. Therefore, the Kremlin aims to further reduce Russia’s dependence on economic ties with Europe and to intensify cooperation with Asian countries. The reorientation of trade and the necessity to prioritise deliveries for the military have become serious challenges for the country’s transport sector. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the primary role of freight transport infrastructure is to ensure the diversification of export routes, particularly for energy resources. Consequently, the government has prioritised projects to expand the country’s railway and port networks in the Russian Far East and the border infrastructure with China. Nevertheless, Russia is striving to develop all alternative transport routes leading directly to the countries of the Global South, including the North–South Corridor and the Northern Sea Route.

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Winning the war with Russia is still possible. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine aims to subjugate or destroy Ukraine, overturn the current political and security order in Europe, and fundamentally revise the global order. The conflict is systemic in nature and will continue as long as the dictatorial Putin regime operates in Moscow. Although Russia has not achieved its strategic goals, it is not giving up on its aggressive plans. The key issue is to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war and, in the long run, to change its regime. Actions should include a short-term accumulation of pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine to enable Kyiv’s counteroffensive and a ceasefire on favourable terms. The pause in the war should be used in the medium term to weaken Russia and strengthen Ukraine. A long-term confrontation between the West and Russia in the political, economic, and security fields should lead to Moscow’s strategic defeat. This requires further consolidation of the community of Western states, acceptance of its goals by societies, and the construction of a global coalition of states defending the basic principles of the international order.

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Russia after two years of full-scale war. Fragile stability and growing aggressiveness

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk,Miłosz Bartosiewicz,Katarzyna Chawryło,Maria Domańska,Marek Menkiszak,Witold Rodkiewicz,Filip Rudnik,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The Putin regime remains stable, but this state of affairs is fragile. The Kremlin has toughened its neo-totalitarian course in domestic policy, its propaganda and government officials depict war as the natural state for both society and the state, and aggressive militarism forms the basis of indoctrination. GDP has grown, driven by war-related spending, but the power of the factors causing this growth have been diminishing. Passing the costs of the war on to business and society may lead to internal tensions. The Russian armed forces have sustained heavy losses during the two years of the invasion, but they still have considerable potential for mobilisation and are in a state of constant expansion, particularly in the western strategic direction. Foreign policy has been subordinated to the immediate goal of transforming Ukraine into a truncated entity with limited sovereignty. At the same time, Russia has moved to destroy the post-Cold War order in Europe & the wider world, and to confront the West head-on. It has stepped up its efforts to secure maximum support from those countries which are in conflict with the West, such as China, Iran and North Korea, and to ensure that countries in the Global South remain neutral. The attitude of the West and the outcome of the war in Ukraine, which may be decided over the next year or so, will be crucial for Russia’s internal stability and its ability to pursue its aggressive external objectives.

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The Middle Corridor. A Eurasian alternative to Russia

Author(s): Konrad Popławski,Sandra Baniak,Adam Michalski,Marcin Popławski / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has now been ongoing for almost two years, is not only leading to significant political re-evaluations, but is also bringing with it significant transformations in Eurasian transport routes. One of the biggest beneficiaries of this process is the Middle Corridor, which bypasses Russia. It runs from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and then one of several branches leads directly into the EU. Prior to February 2022, this route was being developed by the transit countries, but they did not have the know-how, financial resources or political support from external actors which was needed. After the Russian invasion, there has been a significant increase in getting involved in the Middle Corridor – not just from the EU or the US, but also from Beijing and global logistics corporations. It will have potentially significant consequences for the South Caucasus and Central Asian states in particular.This report examines the potential for the development of the Middle Corridor, analyses the positions of the various actors involved, and describes the long-term political implications of making the route more efficient.

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Between hope and illusion. Germany’s migration policy

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The surge in asylum applications in a situation when the state is taking care of more than 800,000 refugees from Ukraine has led to a multi-faceted crisis in Germany. Like the previous migration crisis in 2015, disputes between the federal states and the federation over funding have arisen, and the local authorities responsible for providing shelter and care to asylum seekers do not have enough places for them. However, the much more serious challenge to Germany’s political elite involves the loss of the public’s confidence in the state, combined with a prevailing conviction that the government has lost control of migration policy in its broadest sense. The fact that Germany’s leaders are constantly making demands of their citizens, combined with the immigrants’ insufficient integration into German society, have triggered public resistance. As a consequence, support for the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) party has been on the rise. At present, the AfD is the second most popular party after the Christian Democrats in polls conducted at the federal level, and it is now the most popular party in the eastern federal states, where its level of support is running at over 30%. The mounting economic crisis may further exacerbate the situation, and if this happens the authorities will face problems regarding the distribution of wealth and resources to citizens and asylum seekers.

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Making up for lost time. Germany in the era of the Zeitenwende

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż,Kamil Frymark,Michał Kędzierski,Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

The Zeitenwende, the ‘new era’ in German policy which Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, is usually associated with a radical U-turn in the areas of energy and security. However, these connotations are imprecise at least on two levels. Firstly, over time it has turned out that the shift in Germany’s political strategy has not been so decisive, as can be seen in the steps that have been taken with regard to the reform of the Bundeswehr. Secondly, the SPD-Greens-FDP government wants the Zeitenwende to encompass many other key areas of politics and the economy.

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Russias Belarusian army. The practical aspects of Belarus and Russia's military integration

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

In the 2010s, Minsk lost the remnants of its independent defence capabilities and completely ceded the initiative to Moscow in this regard, remaining content with the appearance of sovereignty. The process of Belarusian-Russian military integration is one-sided; its aim is to adjust the military potential of Belarus to the standards and operational needs of the Russian Armed Forces in the western strategic direction. This process is now so advanced that Belarus cannot be perceived as an independent player in the regional security situation, and should now be considered an integral part of the Russian security space, and its army and arms industry as an element of the Russian instrumentation.The possible use of all or part of Belarus’s military potential will depend on Moscow’s military commitment, the next manifestation of which will be the ‘Zapad-2021’ exercise planned for September this year. From the perspective of Poland, and of NATO more broadly, this means that the actual border of Russia’s military activity is no longer at the Smolensk heights, but just a few dozen kilometres east of Białystok.

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Swedens security. The long way towards total defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Since 2008, Swedish security policy has drawn keen interest from the countries of the Nordic and Baltic states, NATO, as well as the US and Russia. The allied member states have hoped to see Sweden join NATO, while Russia has sought to convince the Swedish government and public that it would be better to abandon integration with the trans-Atlantic security structures. Sweden, confronted with the increasingly aggressive policy of the Kremlin, has faced a major challenge in the last decade: how to pursue the security and defence policy of a non-aligned country with limited military capabilities? For a country that is part of the West, but not NATO, would the option of returning to its Cold War neutrality be viable? Or would it be possible for Sweden to become a member of the Alliance?Stockholm has found its own answer to the security dilemmas. It is currently neither neutrality nor accession to NATO. Sweden is weaving an ever tighter network of military cooperation with the Alliance, the US, its Nordic neighbours and others to complement the limitations in defence capabilities of the Swedish Armed Forces, and restoring the ability of its society and economy to function in times of crisis and war. While this is admittedly not an optimal answer, it is nonetheless satisfactory given the domestic political circumstances.

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Nine dashes. Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Territorial disputes occur in the South China Sea, which is a major hot spot in East Asia and to a large degree also globally. Due to its fundamental importance for global maritime transport, its natural resources and its strategic location, the South China Sea has become an area of interest for the world’s greatest powers. Although the importance of the South China Sea cannot be overestimated, territorial disputes affecting it have remained unsettled since the end of World War II. Since its establishment, People’s Republic of China has sustained its territorial claims to a major part of the South China Sea and, since the 1970s, it has been making active attempts to impose its jurisdiction over the region. This is accompanied by China challenging and ignoring international legal regulations in an unprecedented manner. For China, achieving domination in the South China Sea is a means of proving its superpower status. It is also one of many elements of China’s rivalry with the US for supremacy in East Asia. As a consequence, China is provoking not only the region’s states but most importantly the US and its allies to action. For these states, curbing China’s attempts is tantamount to defending both international law and their credibility as the guarantors of the international order. Since the beginning of the 2010s, the dispute has been mounting in proportion to the deepening political and economic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic is lending this conflict a new dynamic.

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The long shadow of the Treaty of Trianon. Hungary's struggles with the past

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

The 1920 Peace Treaty of Trianon, which sealed Hungary’s loss of two thirds of its territory, is regarded as the country’s greatest national tragedy. The disintegration of the multinational Kingdom of Hungary, which left large Hungarian populations in neighbouring states outside Hungary, was a key event in shaping Hungarian national identity, as well as the country’s internal and foreign policy in the century that followed. While Hungary responded to the Treaty of Trianon by developing various concepts aimed at reclaiming its former territories, it also strived to build good relations with its neighbours and develop policies towards the Hungarian minorities in other countries.While territorial revisionism as a political agenda plays a marginal role in Hungary today, Viktor Orbán has nonetheless raised the profile of the Treaty of Trianon commemorations, and the idea of the nation’s unity across state borders, since coming to power in 2010. The growing acceptance of revisionist symbols, which has been particularly apparent during the Treaty of Trianon’s centenary year, has been fuelling controversy in Hungary’s neighbours and may destabilise regional co-operation in Central Europe.Andrzej Sadecki has worked as an OSW analyst in the years 2012–2018. Currently he conducts research on the Hungarian politics of memory as part of an international project at the University College London and the Charles University in Prague.

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At a crossroads. Crisis in the German automotive industry

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

The German automotive sector’s strong global position is one of the country’s greatest economic success stories. In 2018, two out of the three top global automakers achieving the highest sales volumes originated from Germany, and 80% of all premium class cars produced were German brands. Therefore, it is not surprising that the automotive sector was the key driving force of the economy that helped the country recover so quickly from the global financial crisis and achieve the position of the EU’s unquestioned leader.However, dark clouds are gathering over the automotive sector today. The new era in international relations, where politics and trade are filled with tension, is having an especially strongly impact on the system based on global supply chains built by the German automotive industry. German carmakers’ managers are also concerned about the vision of autonomous electric cars that may lead to the ruin of the traditional model of automobile industry based on the combustion engine.This paper analyses the causes of the crisis in the German automotive industry and lists its potential consequences for Central Europe.

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Rosgvardiya. A special-purpose force

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

Rosgvardiya is the largest internal security structure in Russia. It has been assigned independent functions (policing and intervention, critical infrastructure security, oversight of security contractors and private gun owners), and auxiliary functions in support of the other government departments dealing with security, including the Ministry of Defence (participation in combatting non-military threats and in border protection and territorial defence).Widely divergent views have been expressed about Rosgvardiya since its establishment in 2016: for some it is the key to understanding the nature of the Russian regime, while for others it is a model structure of the state’s military organisation. Both views appear to be well founded. The ‘militarisation’ of the Russian internal security force has been progressing in parallel to its modernisation, re-arming and the enhancement of interoperability through joint drills. Externally, this serves to demonstrate the readiness and agility of the institutions of force, and internally it strengthens the force-based governance mechanisms of the state, its security and citizens under the pretext of preparations for extraordinary situations. This stabilises the current power elite in Russia.

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Endangered heritage. Polish cultural goods in Ukraine and Belarus

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

As a result of the changes of borders in the 20th century, a large proportion of Poland’s cultural heritage found itself on the territory of present-day Belarus and Ukraine. Over the centuries, many cultural goods were created on the erstwhile eastern territories of Poland which the contemporary Polish state, like the other two countries, considers part of its national heritage. This consists mainly of architectural and artistic monuments, archives, libraries and cemeteries. It is difficult to determine in detail how much of the Polish cultural heritage created before 1945 remained in Belarus and Ukraine, but certainly without it, the history of Polish culture and knowledge about it cannot be complete. In fact, no other countries in the world (except Lithuania) are as important to the Polish cultural heritage as Ukraine and Belarus.This report gives a comprehensive overview of issues related to Polish cultural goods in Belarus and Ukraine. It discusses the significance of the cultural assets located within the territories of these two countries in the context of preserving the heritage of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, while also presenting the state of their preservation and how it is perceived by the respective authorities and societies. The publication also contains an analysis of Poland's activities towards Polish cultural goods in Belarus and Ukraine over the past three decades and a discussion of issues related to cataloguing cultural assets, the extent of financial commitment to their restoration, as well as the organisation of the Polish public institutions responsible for the activity in this field. The final part of the report includes recommendations concerning some possible solutions and potential directions of policy that Poland could try to implement in the subsequent years.

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Strangers like us. Germans in the search for a new identity

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English

The decision to leave the borders open, the influx of more than one million people to Germany and the resulting migration crisis in late 2015 and early 2016 were formative experiences for the current political class in Germany and have exacerbated the country’s social and political crisis. The latent, protracted dispute about the character of Germany as a migration state resurfaced with renewed force and will divide the German public for many years to come, since Germans’ sense of national identity lies at the centre of the dispute.German decision makers already know that one of the key consequences of the migration crisis is that they need to make the entire German public realise that Germany has irrevocably become a migration state. A debate is still ongoing about what particular form the German version of such a state should assume and how citizenship should be defined. The divisions in this dispute run across the political divide and different social strata, both within the electorate and among politicians. The only common view seems to be that migration and integration constitute a challenge to maintaining the status quo, which has been relatively favourable for Germany and its people. The realisation is now dawning that the integration of migrants will only be successful if Germans have no complexes when approaching their national identity, because it is not possible to integrate with a nation that constantly questions it.

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