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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures: Semi-annual review for 2022

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Jovana Bogosavljević,Jovan Nikolić / Language(s): English

An Analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the EU’s foreign policy declarations and measures for period from January to July 2022. The Analysis provides an explanation of Serbia’s foreign policy within Chapter 31, as well as the comparative overview of other state’s alignment during this period

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An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures: Semi-annual review for 2024

Author(s): Igor Novaković,Tanja Plavšić / Language(s): English

An Analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the EU’s foreign policy declarations and measures for period from 1st January to 30th June 2024. The Analysis provides an explanation of Serbia’s foreign policy within Chapter 31, as well as the comparative overview of other state’s alignment during this period.

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Winning the war with Russia. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is aimed at subjugating or destroying this country, upending the current political and security order in Europe and forcing a major revision of the global order. The conflict is systemic and will continue as long as Putin’s dictatorial regime remains in power in Moscow. Although Russia is failing in Ukraine, it has not abandoned its maximalist goals. It is crucial to weaken Russia’s ability to wage this war and to foster regime change. These efforts should include a short-term surge of pressure through support for Ukraine to help it achieve decisive success on the battlefield as well as a long-term strategy of confrontation with Russia based on several political, economic and security pillars. This requires further consolidation of the Western community in the political, security and economic areas, public acceptance of the strategy’s goals and the formation of a global coalition of countries to defend the basic principles of the international order.

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The paradoxes of Israeli politics. A short course

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Israel is a developed, prosperous, internationally influential and militarily powerful country. At the same time, however, Israeli political life gives the impression of being constantly in crisis or on the verge of it. Early elections, fragmented parliaments, short-lived coalitions, ephemeral factions, a plethora of leaders, criminal scandals and makeshift legal arrangements are the norm, all present against the backdrop of an almost permanent election campaign that continues to yield fresh impulses for change.This divergence, as well as the great diversity and peculiarity of Israeli politics, can make it seem difficult to comprehend from the perspective of the outside observer. The exoticism, contrasts and paradoxes attract attention, but also mean it is hard to relate Israeli circumstances to any external context, and thus to interpret, classify, compare or evaluate them.The study presents the framework in which Israeli politics plays out, its rules and the main players. In conclusion, it tries to answer the questions of how its clearly visible continuity and effectiveness is possible at all, and in which direction it is heading.

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Germany bids farewell to coal. The next stage of the Energiewende

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The phasing out of coal (Kohleausstieg) is the next stage of Germany’s energy transformation, after nuclear power plant shutdowns. Lignite and hard coal still play an important role in the German energy sector, but are also a significant source of carbon emissions. It will not be possible to reach the country’s climate policy targets without abandoning these resources. This is a major challenge in terms of energy system restructuring on the one hand, and the various, often conflicting political, economic and social interests on the other. Meeting the new, more ambitious climate goals requires the new government to clearly accelerate the decarbonisation of the economy, including the coal phase-out in particular. This report is an attempt to comprehensively address this issue as the new term of the Bundestag is about to start. It presents the role of coal in Germany’s energy sector, the context of the debate on the Kohleausstieg and the significance of a social compromise in the political initiation of this process. It includes an explanation of the coal phase-out mechanism adopted in the Act of 3 July 2020, while the issue of the restructuring of mining regions is also explored. Finally, the consequences of the transformation are set out and the perspectives of its course in the coming years are outlined.

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Israels Palestinian challenges. The state’s identity, a leadership crisis and the "new" Middle East

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The conflict with the Palestinian side is a long-term existential challenge for Israel. A resolution of the dispute or its absence will be decisive for the future ethnic character of this state and for its political system, as well as its external and internal security. This text highlights the key parameters of the dispute from the Israeli perspective and reveals what internal and external factors are shaping their approaches to the issue. In particular, it emphasises the role of interested social groups, the significance of the formation of the “government of change”, the importance of a new regional reality and the involvement of the United States. Windows of opportunity pertaining to the dynamisation and evolution of the international context of the conflict do not change the nature of the Palestinian challenges to Israel and the inevitability of confronting them. They also do not guarantee that a fundamental breakthrough will emerge within the foreseeable future.

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The breadbasket of the world. Agricultural development in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the light of the act on introducing an agricultural land market adopted in March 2020, which partially came into force in mid-2021 and will fully enter into force in 2024. It will allow, for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the free and legal trade in agricultural land. This will have far-reaching consequences both for local agriculture and for the country as a whole. The development of the agricultural sector, which has already progressed at an impressive rate in recent years, can be expected to accelerate further still. It should be remembered that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe in terms of area (excluding the Russian Federation) and more than half of its territory is covered by very fertile soils. The vast majority of the country has a climate favourable for agricultural production – the land is characterised by a long growing season for plants, plenty of sunshine and no problems with shortages of water for agriculture. The state thus has excellent conditions for this type of economy.

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The Beijing-Moscow axis. The foundations of an asymmetric alliance

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz,Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

The asymmetric alliance between Russia and China is the product of a long and unevenly paced process of relation-building that was launched by both sides shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was driven by the mutually felt necessity to regulate bilateral contacts (including the resolution of border disputes, adjustment of spheres of influence in the common neighbourhood), find common answers to global strategic challenges and, above all, a shared sense of a structural conflict with the United States.The Beijing-Moscow axis is, however, not merely an alliance between two states, but primarily an alliance between two authoritarian regimes that define their national interests in terms of maximising their chances of survival, to which end they have been striving to revise the existing world order. Both the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai see the international environment as the main source of threats to the political stability of their rule. Therefore, they share a common interest in shaping a global order that would provide the best conditions from the point of view of their continued existence. The fear of the West and of its ideological influence on their own societies serves to strengthen the alliance even further. To the Russian and Chinese elites, it is not any specific policy of the US or the European Union that poses an existential threat to them, but the very existence of a democratic alternative to their systems of government.

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Assisted assertiveness. Changes in Bulgaria’s policy towards Russia

Author(s): Mateusz Seroka / Language(s): English

In March 2021, during the run up to the parliamentary elections, the Bulgarian counter-intelligence cracked a Russian espionage network that had been collecting information, including on Bulgaria’s activity in NATO. This was not the first blow Russian intelligence has received in recent years. Since tensions began in 2019, Sofia has expelled nine Russian diplomats. The intensity of the disputes between the two countries contrasts with the traditionally good relations between them. In Bulgarian historical memory, Russia appears most often as a close ally in the fight against the Ottoman Empire. The Kremlin’s great influence was also preserved after the fall of communism due to Bulgaria’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Unexpectedly, however, after 2014 a series of tensions arose between Sofia and Moscow, which seem to indicate that the two countries are growing apart. This publication analyses to what extent the strains result from the internal evolution of the Bulgarian public, and to what extent they are caused by the pressure on the country from its Western partners.

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Drought in the Czech Republic. The political, economic and social consequences

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

The Czech Republic is an example of a state in which drought has become a key issue in public debate. In the Czech Republic, 2020 was the seventh consecutive year of a drought that is considered the most severe in 500 years, and which differs from the previous ones in that it is more prolonged and is characterised by considerably higher temperatures. At its peak, every fifth municipality was exposed to the risk of water scarcity, which was particularly evident in southern Moravia and in north-western regions. The situation is further complicated by the fact that for many years Prague was focusing on the construction of a flood control system and on the mitigation of the consequences of floods. At present, the Czech Republic has the smallest freshwater resources of all the inland EU member states. Despite a gradual improvement in the situation, recorded since May 2020, the problem involving groundwater scarcity has not been fully eliminated, and experts – taking account of long-term climate change trends and structural problems faced by the Czech agricultural and forestry sectors – are expecting a recurrence of an even more severe drought in a couple of years at the latest. A closer look at the Czech Republic’s struggle with drought may prompt more comprehensive analyses regarding the water management policy pursued in Central Europe, a region which is becoming increasingly affected by recurrent droughts.

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Cinderella became the Empress. How Merkel has changed Germany

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English

Angela Merkel is the first woman to climb to the top of German politics. Step by step, to the surprise of her male rivals inside the party, she took over the leadership on the political scene of Germany, and then of the European Union. Efficiency was the leitmotif of her four terms. As a technocrat with a social ear, she turned out to be a master in dominating the political centre. Because of her, Germany’s Christian Democrats underwent an ideological evolution. She also greatly contributed to a significant weakening of the SPD and to the creation of the Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany. For an aging and wealthy German society, she was the embodiment of stability and predictability. Her rule, overshadowed by the global economic crisis, provided the citizens of Germany with what is most valuable: prosperity and security. Despite her successes in defending the German status quo, Merkel did not prepare the state and society for the inevitable changes in the international environment. The growing inequalities in the eurozone, the successes of political populism, migrations, the destructive policies of Russia and China, the backlog in the digitisation of education and industry will be described as phenomena and processes with which her governments largely failed.

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The Russian street. The place and significance of immigrants from the former USSR in Israel

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

The arrival of more than one million immigrants from the former USSR back in the 1990s and post-2000 has resulted in a surge in Israel’s demographic and economic potential, sealed the domination of right-wing parties on the Israeli political scene and in public discourse, left its mark on Israel’s historical policy, and finally, contributed new elements to Israel’s cultural mosaic. Russian-speaking newcomers from the former Soviet republics have retained their language, customs and contacts with their countries of origin, and have adapted to the new reality in their own unique manner, while maintaining many elements of their former identity. Despite the fact that three decades after the break-up of the USSR, the Russian-speaking Israelis continue to be less affluent and underrepresented in many spheres of life, struggle with negative clichés and in some cases are still not fluent in Hebrew, they should be viewed as a group which has largely been well-integrated into society and (as a general rule) manifests ardent patriotism towards their new homeland. This text is an attempt to sum up the process of the Russian-speaking immigrants’ adaptation to Israeli society (and vice versa); to assess this group’s place and importance in the Israeli state’s life; to determine how it has changed the country; and finally, how it has affected Israel’s relations with the newcomers’ countries of origin.

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Tell me more. Russia on Macron’s détente initiatives

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

French President Emmanuel Macron has proclaimed the need to engage in dialogue with Russia and work with it to build an architecture of trust and security in Europe; he has managed to partially revive the channels of communication (especially in the political sphere) between the two countries, and also to deepen and intensify it (mainly on the issues of regional conflicts and advanced technology). Macron has also tried to give this policy a European dimension. However, there has been no positive breakthrough in bilateral relations, and talks have failed to produce significant results. This is due to the attitude of Moscow, which has welcomed the initiatives of the French president, but at the same time has not made his efforts any easier, as it hopes to be able to exploit the divisions within the Western community. Instead it has continued its aggressive foreign policy, with no intention of making concessions in order to normalise relations. Paris’s unwillingness to violate solidarity with its allies, together with its continued participation in the sanctions against Russia, have led to growing exasperation in the Kremlin. Despite this, it appears that Macron will not abandon his attempts to bring about détente in relations with Moscow, which is likely to maintain a passive-reactive attitude towards his efforts.

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New ideas for total defence. Comprehensive security in Finland and Estonia

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

In recent years, the Nordic and Baltic region has witnessed a growing interest in the concept of comprehensive security, which hails from the Cold War doctrine of total defence. This originates from the regional pivot to territorial defence and countering hybrid threats. A comprehensive approach to security is considered a driver for enhancing national resilience and for ensuring the best possible operational environment for armed defence. It incorporates military and non-military aspects of national security, and crisis management. Finland and Estonia stand out with respect to a comprehensive security strategy. Among the Nordic countries, Finland has the longest continuous tradition of a comprehensive approach to security, rooted in its strategic culture and societal background, while Estonia was the first of the Baltic states to begin building a comprehensive security system (already in 2008). The aim of this report is to present the concepts for comprehensive security in the Nordic and Baltic states, focusing on Finland and Estonia as case studies, and to analyse the practical ways in which comprehensive security is achieved in the two countries.

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The non-strategic partnership. Belarus-China relations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Relations between China and Belarus have been developing intensively over the past decade. This process has been fuelled by Beijing’s growing global ambitions as well as Minsk’s efforts to modernise the Belarusian economy and to partially reduce its dependence on Moscow. Given China’s great economic potential and desire to develop cooperation, it became the main non-European partner for Minsk at the beginning of the 21st century. Beijing decided to use Minsk’s great openness to cooperation and turned Belarus into an important laboratory for the Belt and Road Initiative, which was presented as one of the greatest successes of Xi Jinping’s flagship project. However, the two sides had quite different expectations as to the principles of their cooperation. In turn, the extremely ambitious visions were not filled with real content. The development of relations with China has not led to a structural transformation of the Belarusian economy. Instead, its trade deficit and foreign debt have increased. As a result, along with the growing disappointment with cooperation with Minsk, the Chinese administration and experts are again showing increasing interest in Ukraine, which is considered a much more attractive economic partner.

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The leader is gasping for breath. Germany's climate policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

For years, Germany has claimed to be the leader of global climate policy and has continued to raise the issue of global warming on the international forum. All over the world, Germany is associated with the transition to renewable energy sources. The German word for this transition, Energiewende, has become a permanent entry in the glossary of terms used by energy experts. Since the last decade, Germany’s ambitious goals and its ‘green’ image have increasingly clashed with numerous problems faced by this transition. Measures carried out by successive governments were inconsistent with what had initially been declared. The German authorities lacked the determination to implement solutions which could potentially undermine the interests of influential industrial, business and social groups. Germany’s cautious attitude to the EU’s climate policy reform resulted in it being referred to as a ‘brake’ on the progress of this policy. Instead of positioning itself as an active leader, Berlin took up the inconvenient role of an actor responding to external initiatives.A sine qua non for Germany to be able to maintain its lead in international climate policy will involve it regaining its credibility as the leader of actions to combat global warming. This can only happen once Germany resolves its problems with Energiewende and embarks on a path to emissions reduction in line with the adopted targets.

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Digitalisation under surveillance. The development of the 5G network in Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

The digital transformation has become one of the Russian government’s economic priorities during Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term. At its core has been the development of ICT infrastructure, and especially the deployment of fifth-generation mobile networks (5G). The development of the digital sector has been dominated by security issues, which are seen as more important than technical or financial efficiency. It is expected that Russia’s 5G infrastructure will rely on Russian technologies, software and devices, and state bodies have been heavily involved in its implementation. As a result of a fierce rivalry between the main actors vying to influence the course of the digital transformation, its master plan is still in the process of being formulated. As regards the 5G network, the dispute centres on two issues: the choice of the operator market model (with the government opting for an infrastructure monopoly) and the choice of radio frequencies (with the security agencies opposing the release of the most prospective bands).

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Opposites put together. Belarus's politics of memory

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2014 became a turning point in Belarus’s historical narrative and forced the regime to emphasise Belarusian distinctiveness from Russia more than before. The activation of the politics of memory, which had previously been conducted in a very conservative manner, became one of the key tools to accomplish this task. In order to strengthen the foundations of an independent Belarus, the government began to highlight the elements of the past that point towards an independent path for national development, and which at the same time allow for Russian dominance to be weakened. Changes have been manifested by reaching beyond the framework of the Soviet tradition to a greater extent and more frequent references to events that had previously been ignored or distorted. The government resorted to the historical narrative of the opposition and independent historians, which it had formerly opposed, yet this shift was carried out very cautiously. The process of shaping the politics of memory is not yet complete and is likely to evolve further in the coming years. Both the direction and the pace of change will depend on the nature of the political regime and its evolution.

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The Gordian knot of the Caucasus. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is the ‘mother’ of all post-Soviet conflicts. It is the oldest of them, it involves the largest number of actors (including mediators and intermediaries), and also covers the most dimensions: military, political, economic and social. The Karabakh issue has come to dominate the post-Soviet history of Armenia and Azerbaijan, shaping their modern statehoods; left a lasting mark on the region, including its transport infrastructure; and has become an instrument of control over the South Caucasus for Russia. Despite the fact that the present significance of the conflict has decreased since the wars in Georgia and Ukraine, it remains an important element of politics at the junction of post-Soviet Eurasia and the Middle East. Each decision made in this connection will set a certain standard for the area of ​​the former USSR and for Moscow's relations with the former Soviet republics.A possible new war would violate the security system in this part of the world. Such a scenario is unlikely, but not unrealistic. It is made more likely by the fact that the current state of political suspension does not represent a ‘freezing’ of the conflict, but is rather a form of ‘stable instability’: armed incidents occur every day, and people are killed regularly.This report is intended as a handy compendium of the conflict. It has been produced more than 30 years after its outbreak and over 25 years since the end of the Karabakh war. It describes its changing dynamics over time, the interests of the participants and external actors, the course of the peace process, the current state of affairs, and the prospects for the future.

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A European Defence Union. The EU's new instruments in the area of security and defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Since 2016, efforts to increase cooperation in the EU’s security and defence policy have accelerated. New initiatives have been undertaken in the military, industrial and civilian dimensions under the label of a European Defence Union. So far, nothing indicates that the enhanced cooperation of the EU member states will lead to an integration of their defence policies or to building an alternative to NATO. The new EU instruments, even if they are actively used by the member states, will to only a small extent increase European military capabilities, lead to innovation in the European defence industry or improve the capacity of the military and civilian crisis management missions. This report presents and analyses the EU’s instruments, as well as the opportunities and challenges they present to those EU member states that form NATO’s eastern flank at the same time.

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