Demographic consequences of the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia
Demographic consequences of the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia

Summary/Abstract: The growing trend of the emigration abroad from the Republic of Macedonia is confirmed by different data sources. The total number of Macedonian citizens all over the world amounts approximately 630 thousands persons (2013) and the emigration rate reached around 30%. The aim of the analyses in this paper is to identify the demographic consequences of the intensified emigration abroad in the last two decades due to the manifested changes of migration contingent features. It is observed on the example of three receiving countries (Germany, Italy and Switzerland), which share in the total number of Macedonian citizens all over the world amounts more than one quarter. Considering the very high emigration rate, large permanent emigration and significant changes in the migration contingent structure, the analyses in the paper show that Macedonia is facing serious demographic consequences with long-term implications. Emigration abroad has significant consequences on the total population growth in the country, natural population increase and the process of population ageing. In order to identify the determinants of the natural population increase of the migration contingent, the CCR-LM model is applied for the period 2008-2014. The results are showing that the share of Macedonian live births in Germany, Italy and Switzerland in the total number of live births in the country, is mostly correlated with the increase of the share of total Macedonian migrants in these countries in the total population of the country, as well as with the share of Macedonian women in Germany, Switzerland and Italy in the total women population in Macedonia.

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