Podejście scenariuszowe w badaniu bezpieczeństwa
Scenario Approach to Research in Security Sciences

Summary/Abstract: The article concerns the assessment of the possibility of using a scenario approach in the threats analysis. The choice of the scenario approach results from the fact that it is part of the assumptions of basic security theory and its features that best suit the nature of contemporary threats. The analysis of the scenario planning achievements has led to the identification of dominant models. Their aggregation and final selection allowed to focus on two schools. The first one approaches the scenarios in a classical way, at the beginning making valuation of factors and indicating trends, which gives the normative character to the choices made. Pessimistic, optimistic and probable scenarios are created here. The second school puts down valuation, and thus the decision, until it is actually, and not only subjectively, necessary. In this case scenarios for specific narrations occur. The choice of approach should be determined by the purpose of use and the competences of the implementers (participants).

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