Economic tendency surveys and economic policy - measuring output gaps and growth potentials
Economic tendency surveys and economic policy - measuring output gaps and growth potentials
Contributor(s): Sylwester Białowąs (Editor)
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Sociology of the arts, business, education, Economic development, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Financial Markets, Fiscal Politics / Budgeting, Globalization, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Keywords: business cycle;business tendency;survey;banks;economic policy;fluctuations; financial behaviour;households;consumption;COVID-19;monetary policy;survey data;
Summary/Abstract: Business tendency surveys provide information which is valuable to the respondents themselves as well as to economic policy makers and analysts. This is an area of special interest for economists working in governments, national banks, statistical offices and for scientists. CIRET international conferences are the meeting place for top scientists of these areas from worldwide, and they successfully integrate the academic and business communities involved in business surveys and business cycles. The book contains a selection of topics that have been discussed at 35th CIRET Conference titled Economic Tendency Surveys And Economic Policy: Measuring Output Gaps and Growth Potentials, which took place from 15 to 17 September 2021 in Poznań, Poland. See more on the global and local CIRET Conference websites. The selection is driven around two goals. In the first part, the articles are related to the research methods, as well as the use regarding a broad range of methods applied in assessing the market economic situation. The second part of the book is focused on the use of methods and situation assessment. In the presented papers, the variety within the scientific area of business tendency is shown. The work allows to prove the strong position of Polish science in this area as well.
- E-ISBN-13: 978-83-8211-129-3
- Print-ISBN-13: 978-83-8211-128-6
- Page Count: 136
- Publication Year: 2022
- Language: English
Determinants of sample selection in business climate survey within the sector of banking and financial institutions
Determinants of sample selection in business climate survey within the sector of banking and financial institutions
(Determinants of sample selection in business climate survey within the sector of banking and financial institutions)
- Author(s):Radosław Cholewiński, Stanisław Kluza
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, Economic development, Financial Markets
- Page Range:15-29
- No. of Pages:15
- Keywords:banking sector;banks;financial sector;financial institutions;sampling;methodology;
- Summary/Abstract:The aim of this study is to propose new directions of changes in research methodology, which are necessary due to the statistical quality of analysis and, at the same time, to take into account and adapt to the evolutionary changes in the Polish banking and financial sectors. An important criterion for the proposed recommendations is to maintain continuity and comparability of results in the period both before and after considering the new methodology. In this study, two subject areas are covered: (i) assessment of the sample selection, and (ii) an overview of the proposed evolution of the survey. With regards to the first area, the main focus of analysis is placed on the decrease in the number of banks in the sector (including the aspect of statistical representativeness of the study). In the second case, focus is shifted towards the rising importance of other non-bank institutions in the financial sector as well as their impacton the national economy. The development of a new survey is accompanied by three key considerations. First, it is a premise for maintaining continuity and comparability of historical data with that new. Secondly, the questions asked in the survey were reviewed and critically selected. Some questions, which were asked 20 years ago, are now not only less relevant, if not meaningless. On the other hand, recent developments in the banking sector are significantly different to the ones occurring 20 years ago. As such, it is now necessary to review the posed questions and ensure that they survey covers a wide spectrum of new issues reflecting these developments. Finally, the need to extend the sample to other financial market segments poses a challenge of unifying the survey to cover specifics of a number of individual market segments while, at the same time, obtaining comparable market data.
Use of data from Business Tendency Surveys in output gap estimation
Use of data from Business Tendency Surveys in output gap estimation
(Use of data from Business Tendency Surveys in output gap estimation)
- Author(s):Ewa Ratuszny, Konrad Walczyk
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, Economic development, Financial Markets
- Page Range:30-38
- No. of Pages:9
- Keywords:bubusiness cycle;cycle indicators;output gap;principal components;survey data;
- Summary/Abstract:In this paper, the results of empirical research are presented regarding the most commonly used macroeconomic indicators of business cycles together with the Research Institute for Economic Development (RIED) Business Tendency Surveys data in output gap estimation. As a tool for determining business cycle, principal component analysis (PCA) is used. The empirical evidence allows to confirm the usefulness of qualitative RIED indices in modelling the output gap and, at the same time, support the conclusions made by Roeger, McMorrow, Hristov and Vandermeulen (2019) that inflation and the current account balance do not perform well as indicators of the cycle in Poland. The cyclical component obtained using PCA is highly correlated with the cyclical component of the RIED barometer and real GDP change.
Automatic identification of turning points with HMM-based indicator
Automatic identification of turning points with HMM-based indicator
(Automatic identification of turning points with HMM-based indicator)
- Author(s):Michał Bernardelli
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, Economic policy, Economic development
- Page Range:39-55
- No. of Pages:17
- Keywords:indicator;hidden Markov model;Viterbi path;turning point;business tendency survey;Christiano-Fitzgerald filter;Bry-Boschan algorithm;
- Summary/Abstract:In this paper, the issues of constructing early warning indicators, as well as the business cycle turning point detection, are raised. Following the original procedure presented by Bernardelli (2020), modification and simplification of one of the procedure stages were proposed. The stage with turning point identification was replaced by a combination of well-known and recognise dasymmetric Christiano-Fitzgerald filter and the Bry-Boschan routine of cyclical turning point selection. Presenting improvement in the procedure was the key objective of this article. The basic idea of the remaining part of the HMM Signature Indicator procedure lies in the definition of the signature, which captures the pattern in the considered time series, just before the peak or trough. In the presented approach, the following concepts were exploited: the hidden Markovmodel (HMM), Viterbi path (VP) and Monte Carlo simulations (MC). However, the value-added characteristic of this article is not only the proposition of a new,highly parametrisable method for quantitative representation of the business cycle. An integral part of the research was the validation of the presented approach. The data from the business tendency survey in the Polish manufacturing industry conducted by RIED SGH was used to design 2 different HMM Signature Indicators. Each of the them was constructed on the basis of different input time series. Despite this, both demonstrated leading properties, and therefore, effectiveness of the proposed solution was proved. In the majority of cases, the turning points were properly caught in reasonable advance. This means that the presented method can be successfully used for the construction of early warning indicators.
Monetary policy under continuous market sentiment regimes
Monetary policy under continuous market sentiment regimes
(Monetary policy under continuous market sentiment regimes)
- Author(s):Michał Chojnowski
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, Financial Markets
- Page Range:56-67
- No. of Pages:12
- Keywords:economic sentiments;non-linear, vector autoregression;monetary policy;
- Summary/Abstract:In this article, an econometric method is proposed for the analysis of monetary policy under regimes that include unobserved agents’ economic sentiments. In the non-linear LVSTAR model, market sentiments do not directly influence monetary policy, however, agents’ actions may change over the sentiments providing different reactions to economic shocks. The results indicate differences in the effectiveness of the monetary policy between the high and low economic sentiment regimes, while both countries react in a similar way to the sentiment. In general, during the low level of economic sentiment conducting monetary policy can become more challenging as the reaction time for the economy increases and the changes in monetary policy need to bemore vital to take effect.
Do survey responses in manufacturing fluctuate with business cycle? Evidence from Poland
Do survey responses in manufacturing fluctuate with business cycle? Evidence from Poland
(Do survey responses in manufacturing fluctuate with business cycle? Evidence from Poland)
- Author(s):Emilia Tomczyk
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Business Economy / Management, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Sociology of the arts, business, education, Economic development
- Page Range:71-84
- No. of Pages:17
- Keywords:business cycles;survey data;expectations;manufacturing industry
- Summary/Abstract:As we are entering a post-SARS-CoV-2 slump in the economic activity, up-to-date analysis of the dynamics of economic phenomena during expansion and contraction phases of business cycles poses a very current and very important research problem for applied economists. In this paper, literature on dating Polish business cycles is briefly summarised, chronology of expansion and contraction phases is proposed on the basis of turning points established in previous research, and statistical properties of observed and expected changes in 8 fields of economic activity are presented and interpreted. It is found that during contraction phases, absolute values of balance statistics are both lower, as measured by mean and median, and less volatile, as measured by standard deviation, than during expansion phases. This finding suggests that, in hard times, enterprises are less likely to form opinions or expectations much different from the consensus. As far as the depth of the downturns is concerned, the contractions associated with the financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the second half of 2012 appear worse, both with respect to observed and expected changes, than the slowdown of 2000–2002. Generally, excessive volatility (high-standard deviations, as compared to measures of central tendency) is noted in expansion phases, more often for observed changes than in the case of forecasts. Lower uncertainty is visible in contraction phases, particularly the one associated with the financial crisis of 2008–2009. The results presented in this paper allow to suggest that the observed and expected balances tatistics of survey responses exhibit different statistical properties depending on the phase ofthe business cycle. This finding could assist future research concerning the impact of the SARSCoV-2 virus on the dynamics of economic activity.
Anti-inflation policy in Poland’s economy during the period of transformation and integration
Anti-inflation policy in Poland’s economy during the period of transformation and integration
(Anti-inflation policy in Poland’s economy during the period of transformation and integration)
- Author(s):Ryszard Barczyk, Zuzanna Urbanowicz
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Politics, Economy, National Economy, Economic policy, International relations/trade, Economic development, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Financial Markets, Fiscal Politics / Budgeting, Globalization
- Page Range:85-102
- No. of Pages:18
- Keywords:inflation;fiscal policy;monetary policy;stabilization policy;
- Summary/Abstract:The aim of the article is to analyse the origin, course of inflation and scope of operation concerning the instruments of monetary and fiscal policy applied by the anti-inflation policy, as well as to evaluate their effectiveness for Poland’s economy in the years 2000–2021. To measure the relationship between decisions in the area of stabilisation policy and inflation, the authors carried out an econometric analysis using the dynamic autoregressive model with distributed lags. The parameters of the model confirmed that among the applied tools of monetary and fiscal policies, an anti-inflation nature was found between the monetary policy instruments and prices, and also linking budget expenditures with price level. Changes in budget incomes, according to the obtained results, were not conducive to price stabilisation in our economy. Anti-inflationary policy was dominated by monetary policy instruments. The anti-inflationary significance of fiscal policy has been much smaller since the beginning of the transformation of the Polish economy. Its anti-inflationary role increased in the period of difficulties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular at the time of a strong increase in budget spending in the environment of rising price level.
Relationship between cyclical fluctuations in the banking and the services sector in Poland
Relationship between cyclical fluctuations in the banking and the services sector in Poland
(Relationship between cyclical fluctuations in the banking and the services sector in Poland)
- Author(s):Robert Skikiewicz
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Economic development, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment
- Page Range:103-112
- No. of Pages:10
- Keywords:banking sector;services sector;cyclical fluctuations;business tendency survey;
- Summary/Abstract:The aim of the paper is to explore the relationship between the business tendency survey indicators for the banking sector and the sections and divisions of the services sector in Poland. In the paper, the results are presented of analyses conducted on the basis of data from the business tendency surveys. The time range of analyses covers the period from the first quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2020. The data for the banking sector stem from the survey which is carried out quarterly by the Department of Market Research and Services of the Poznań University of Economics and Business. The data for the eleven sections and two divisions of the services sector (according to the Polish PKD code classification) were obtained from the survey conducted by Statistics Poland on a monthly basis. The monthly data were transformed into quarterly with the use of two formulas. In the paper, the results are presented of cross-correlation analysis, in which the maximum length of lags and leads equal four quarters was adopted.
Financial behaviour of households in European Union countries—similarities and differences in the 2004–2016 period
Financial behaviour of households in European Union countries—similarities and differences in the 2004–2016 period
(Financial behaviour of households in European Union countries—similarities and differences in the 2004–2016 period)
- Author(s):Sylwester Białowąs, Robert Skikiewicz
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Economic development, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:113-125
- No. of Pages:13
- Keywords:financial behaviour of households;economic sentiment;
- Summary/Abstract:Household financial behaviour reflects preferences concerning inter-temporal choice and strongly influences the whole economy. Allocating consumption, in time, households balance their exposure to liquidity risk and modify their ability to withstand financial shocks. Consumer sentiment is the main factor summing up all the preferences that shape the decision-making processes of households. The financial services sector has been internationalised over the past few decades, gradually leading to unification of the supply and further, to the unification of the financial behaviours of households. However, even within the EU, important differences in financial behaviour can be anticipated between consumers living in various countries. The aim of the paper is to estimate the relationship between economic sentiment and the shaping of household saving rate and household debt-to-income ratio. The ESI (EconomicSentiment Indicator) was used as a measure of cyclical fluctuations in the economy. Another aim of the paper is to find similarities and differences of financial behaviour in the case of households in European Union countries. We find that country segments are highly interpretable. Our conclusions feature implications, both academic and managerial, and directions for future research. The data used in analysis stem from Eurostat and the European Commission. The analyses cover only 19 of the European Union countries due to the limited availability of data for some countries. Analyses include the 2004–2020 period. We used the following statistical methods for analysis: correlation analysis, Ward methodand ANOVA.
The propensity of Polish households to consume and save within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
The propensity of Polish households to consume and save within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
(The propensity of Polish households to consume and save within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic)
- Author(s):Jacek Jankiewicz
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Economy, Business Economy / Management, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Economic development, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Socio-Economic Research
- Page Range:126-136
- No. of Pages:11
- Keywords:propensity to save;consumption;COVID-19;uncertainty;
- Summary/Abstract:The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the propensity to consume and to save in Polish households by means of qualitative indicators of consumer sentiment. The available data made it possible to observe the evolution in attitudes over the course of more than 20 years in Poland including the period of COVID-19 pandemic. The presented results also include an analysis of the changes in the level of household uncertainty, which can be observed in the assessments and forecasts of both their own financial situation and the country’s economic condition. Taking into account the fact that consumer demand is the most important element of GDP, the obtained results do not indicate a quick return of the Polish economy to a path of dynamic growth. Among households, not only has the willingness to buy durable goods decreased, but at the same time, the uncertainty related to their own financial situation has grown.
