Demographic Processes and their Impact on Rural Areas: The Example of the Southwest and South-Central Regions
Demographic Processes and their Impact on Rural Areas: The Example of the Southwest and South-Central Regions

Author(s): Julia Doitchinova, Albena Miteva
Subject(s): Social Sciences, Economy, Micro-Economics, Sociology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Demography and human biology, Rural and urban sociology, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: demographic processes; economic activity; rural territories
Summary/Abstract: In a context of rapidly declining populations and deteriorating demographic characteristics, research on the development of implications and causes of spatial disparities is expanding to encompass more and more factors and characteristics of regions. The aim of this paper is to assess the demographic trends in the Southwest and South-Central statistical regions and their implications for rural development. The subject of the study are the territories of the two most populated regions in Bulgaria, which include diverse rural areas – mostly mountainous and semi-mountainous with natural re-sources and potential for economic diversification. They include the two largest cities with characteristics of agglomeration areas, but also the municipalities with the lowest population density. The object of the study are the demographic processes and characteristics and their impact on rural development. A complex methodological approach is applied, which uses and combines quantitative and qualitative methods and thus assesses the impact of the recorded demographic processes and changes. The study was carried out on the basis of information from the population censuses con-ducted in 2011 and 2021, current information of the National Statistical Institute and expert assessment of 57 surveyed specialists in the field of regional development, municipal administration and agrarian economy. The results are analyzed for the nine districts with rural areas in the Southwest and South-Central regions (NUTS3 level). The first part of the report presents and evaluates the changes in the number of the population, as well as some basic characteristics such as educational structure, coefficients of demographic dependence, economic activity, etc. A number of negative trends in the ongoing demo-graphic processes have been assessed, which are most pronounced in the remote and border areas of the territory. In the second part of the report, the expert assessments of the respondents, recruited through a survey conducted in the period September 2023 – April 2024, are presented. They are divided into several areas: assessment of the educational and health infrastructures; assessment of the effects of educational and age structures on the development of rural areas; the impact of migration processes in direction to cities and abroad, etc. A four-point Likert scale was used. The prevailing opinion of the experts is that the level of income, the deteriorating educational and health infrastructures are among the main reasons for the negative demographic processes. They adversely affect entrepreneurial activity, the administrative capacity of local authorities and, in general, the quality of the workforce in rural areas. At the same time, the impacts are more pronounced in remote and border sparsely populated rural areas in the districts of Kardzhali, Smolyan, Kyustendil, Pernik and Blagoevgrad.

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