Publisher: Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

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A Fragile Vote for Europe - Pro-EU Coalition Wins Majority in Polarized Moldovan Elections

A Fragile Vote for Europe - Pro-EU Coalition Wins Majority in Polarized Moldovan Elections

Author(s): Michal Šimečka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; election; EU; integration;

Moldova stays on course toward closer EU integration after Sunday's general election delivered a narrow parliamentary majority for the ruling coalition. In a poll framed as a choice between Europe and Russia, the three pro-EU parties - the centrist Liberal Democrats, left-leaning Democrats, and centre-right Liberals - captured 46 percent of the popular vote, and 55 seats in the 101-member Parliament. But as they prepare to form a new government, electoral momentum also rests with pro-Russian forces. The Kremlin-backed Socialist party, calling for Moldova to renege on the EU Association Agreement to join the Russian-led Customs Union, surged from obscurity to win the largest share of the popular vote with almost 21 percent. The slightly more moderate Communist party finished third with 17 percent. The upshot is a polarised political environment that will require a nuanced and inclusive approach by the new government and the EU.

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All in the Same Boat - Visegrad Four Can Do More to Defend Free Movement in the EU

All in the Same Boat - Visegrad Four Can Do More to Defend Free Movement in the EU

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

Keywords: Visegrad four; EU; free movement policy; foreign policy;

Central European states, notably Czech Republic and Poland, have been vocal defenders of the Schengen-zone and the free-movement it provides. The strong, public response in both countries to the UK’s recently proposed clampdown on free movement is a welcome continuation of this tradition that can help to mitigate the threat to a key EU principle. However, the Schengen zone, which is the most important manifestation of the EU’s commitment to free movement, is also under threat in other ways. Schengen countries, including the Visegrad Four (V4), need to do more to share the uneven burdens that come from participating in the Area of Freedom Justice and Security (AFSJ). Failure to create an effective common asylum policy and to adequately support the countries bearing the brunt of migratory flows risks the dismantling of a key European achievement and the end of one of the EU’s most popular policies. The V4 can, and should, do more to defend free movement, by sharing more of these burdens than they do currently.

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EU Response to the Migration Crisis: Too Little, But Not Too Late - As it faces mounting criticism over its lacklustre response to the migration emergency in the Mediterranean, the EU needs a plan to address causes as well as symptoms of the crisis

EU Response to the Migration Crisis: Too Little, But Not Too Late - As it faces mounting criticism over its lacklustre response to the migration emergency in the Mediterranean, the EU needs a plan to address causes as well as symptoms of the crisis

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration; crisis; Mediterranean; EU;

The causes of the migration crisis in the Mediterranean are multiple and complex. Rather than just attempting to alleviate its symptoms, the EU must address them to protect migrants, safeguard the Schengen zone and act as a force for good in the world. Large flows of refugees and economic migrants who are unable to enter the EU through regular routes seek the help of people smugglers to enter the EU. Smugglers have been able to operate with impunity in the wake of Libyan state collapse and operate dangerous routes and dangerous practices of travel. Incoherent EU policies on Schengen solidarity and refugee resettlement have lead to a muddled and ineffective response, which is informed by xenophobic discourse and is an insult to the EU’s history and values. Failure to establish offshore asylum-processing and inadequate Search and Rescue (SAR) efforts have compounded the situation. After a disappointing first response, the EU needs to formulate short, medium and long term plans to address the causes of the crisis.

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Responding to Sousse: Tunisia Needs Sustainable Economic Development Not a Security Crackdown - It is time for the EU to support initiatives tackling the economic stagnation, unreformed security system and marginalization of peripheries that feed rad

Responding to Sousse: Tunisia Needs Sustainable Economic Development Not a Security Crackdown - It is time for the EU to support initiatives tackling the economic stagnation, unreformed security system and marginalization of peripheries that feed rad

Author(s): Jan Daniel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sousse; Tunisia; economic development; sustainable development; security; EU;

While Tunisia was widely praised for the progress it has made since the 2011 revolution, two recent terrorist attacks have reminded the world of the challenges that the country faces. Both the attack in the Bardo museum on 18 March 2015 and the shooting in Sousse on 26 June 2015 were committed by young Tunisians with links to Libyan jihadist groups and targeted mainly foreign tourists. The Tunisian government, led by the secularist party Nidaa Tounes, has responded by cracking down on radical Islamist networks and adopting a new counter-terrorism law that has been criticised by human rights groups as granting too many unchecked powers to the authorities. The nascent Tunisian democracy thus has to navigate an increasingly difficult road marked by internal challenges in the form of economic and demographic pressures, militant Islamist opposition and stalling reforms. Instability in the whole North Africa and the Sahel only exacerbate internal issues. It will be very difficult for the Tunisian government to overcome all these challenges alone and it is time for the EU to help preserve the stability of the country.

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NATO's Eastern Promises? - Demands for permanent deployment of NATO troops on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank risk divisions at a time when political unity is at a premium

NATO's Eastern Promises? - Demands for permanent deployment of NATO troops on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank risk divisions at a time when political unity is at a premium

Author(s): Michal Šimečka / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; security; troops; policy; eastern flank;

Ahead of the June 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw, Poland and other new Member States are stepping up calls for the Alliance to expand its presence on their territories. The military logic is straight-forward: permanently stationed NATO troops would dispel any doubts about the credibility of NATO's Article 5, and decrease the likelihood of Russia's provocation or outright aggression. However, in the absence of a broad political agreement on such a sensitive move in the Alliance, the initiative could prove self-defeating, driving a wedge between Western and Eastern member states and undercutting NATO's fragile consensus on Russia.

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European Re-Engagement in UN Peacekeeping? - The small and medium European states need to face the unexpected challenges to be effectively involved in UN peacekeeping missions

European Re-Engagement in UN Peacekeeping? - The small and medium European states need to face the unexpected challenges to be effectively involved in UN peacekeeping missions

Author(s): Jan Daniel,Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): English

Keywords: UN; Europe; peacekeeping; challenges;

The pledges made by many European nations at the World Leaders' Summit on Peacekeeping in September 2015 and large number of European troops in United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) both mark an important trend – the return of the European NATO armies to UN peacekeeping. With a few exceptions (UNIFIL in Lebanon and smaller units in Cyprus and the Golan Heights) European troops have been largely absent from UN operations since the termination of the missions in the former Yugoslavia. The recent withdrawal from Afghanistan and developments in European southern neighborhood have again made UN missions an attractive option for European nations both for security and capacity reasons. The European nations have decided to strengthen their presence in the Sahel region, through EU missions (particularly training and assistance missions) but also by responding to UN calls for greater contributions. This trend has culminated in the significant contributions of small and medium sized European armies to MINUSMA, which represents an important learning process for both the UN and European nations as well as paving the way for future operations.

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Fortress Britain vs. Liberal Britain: Responding Effectively to Terrorism - With troops on the streets after the Manchester attack, liberal Britain is threatened by harsh (and ineffective) responses to terror

Fortress Britain vs. Liberal Britain: Responding Effectively to Terrorism - With troops on the streets after the Manchester attack, liberal Britain is threatened by harsh (and ineffective) responses to terror

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

Keywords: Fortress Britain; Liberal Britain; terrorism; response;

The attack on concert-goers and their families in Manchester has provoked heartfelt outpourings of grief and sympathy as well as widespread and vehement condemnation. Politicians and citizens alike have pledged not to let this affect the cohesion of the diverse Mancunian community or to let it change liberal ways of British life.

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Zapad 2017: How should the West respond? - Russia’s next wargames do not mean war is coming

Zapad 2017: How should the West respond? - Russia’s next wargames do not mean war is coming

Author(s): Nicolò Fasola / Language(s): English

Keywords: West; East; foreign policy; international relations; security; war;

Russia has always conducted military drills more numerous and larger in scale than NATO’s. Zapad (“West” in Russian) is the exercise sequence that generates most concerns for NATO, not only because of its proximity but also because of memories linked with the huge 1981 iteration, the largest exercises the USSR had ever held, which showcased in all its might the power of its new operational manoeuvre groups. Zapad 2017 will be held in September and is perceived as a potential threat to the security of the region, especially by the Baltic Republics, not least because both the invasion of Georgia and that of Ukraine were preceded by major military exercises. Is the threat credible, and is the fear of an opportunistically expansionist Russia justified in this context?

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G5 Sahel Joint Force: European Strategy Should Go Beyond Counter-terrorism - Mali and the wider Sahel region should be provided with more support, but is the new counter-terrorist force what is needed?

G5 Sahel Joint Force: European Strategy Should Go Beyond Counter-terrorism - Mali and the wider Sahel region should be provided with more support, but is the new counter-terrorist force what is needed?

Author(s): Jan Daniel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sahel; G5; Europe; support; military;

On the 2 July 2017 the leaders of five Sahelian nations, joined the French president Macron, officially inaugurated a new regional military operation. The latest initiative is supposed to bring stability to the region struggling with the aftermath of the collapse of Malian state in 2012. The 5000 troops of the G5 Sahel joint force (JF-G5S) are to be composed primarily from the nations of the G5 Sahel bloc (Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger) supported with funds, training and equipment provided by the EU, France and potentially other Western states. The force will be tasked with enhancing government control of the border areas in Sahel, strengthening the authority of the respective states and facilitating humanitarian and development operations. The first deployment (of a planned three) is expected to take place in the triborder region of central Mali, western Niger and eastern Burkina Faso, where Jihadist and criminal armed groups recently stepped up their activities. The creation of the new counter-terrorist operation provides an opportunity to curb the activity of non-state actors in the sensitive border regions, yet it needs international support and wider perspective on the roots of the local conflicts to ensure sustainable stabilization.

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The Disappearance of the Battlefield in the War on Terror - The Global War on Terror’s policy of targeted killing is transforming the character of war and undercutting the means to regulate it.

The Disappearance of the Battlefield in the War on Terror - The Global War on Terror’s policy of targeted killing is transforming the character of war and undercutting the means to regulate it.

Author(s): Antoine Bousquet / Language(s): English

Keywords: war; terror; battlefield;

The classical image of the battlefield evokes a bounded physical space in which massed armies clash for a day in search of a decisive resolution. Such battles feature prominently throughout recorded history and continue to inform contemporary conceptions of the battlefield. Yet this traditional image of the battlefield was already a fading reality in the twentieth century. Over the course of two world wars, the zones of offensive operations expanded across continents and civilian populations became targets of intense aerial bombardment under the doctrine of total war. The Cold War took place against the ever-present backdrop of a possible nuclear conflagration of apocalyptic proportions, with the antagonism between the superpowers consequently displaced into a persistent state of worldwide struggle, ranging from proxy wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan to competition in the space race and the arts. The bounded, unitary battlefield is, however, facing perhaps its greatest challenge today in the context of the on-going War on Terror. Indeed, global military campaigns of targeted killing threaten to undermine the laws of war devised to regulate and constrain the use of armed force.

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The Russian Su-57 and the ‘Fifth-Generation’ Challenge - Moscow’s new ‘fifth-generation’ fighter project is an over-priced and under-competitive counterpart to US and Chinese designs, but it raises policy questions for Europe.

The Russian Su-57 and the ‘Fifth-Generation’ Challenge - Moscow’s new ‘fifth-generation’ fighter project is an over-priced and under-competitive counterpart to US and Chinese designs, but it raises policy questions for Europe.

Author(s): Michael Eric Lambert / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; aviation; Su-57; US; China; competitiveness;

Fifth-generation aircraft – characterised by being stealthy, manoeuvrable, and multi-role and possessing advanced avionics and data processing capacities – are both expensive and difficult to build, but promise massive operational advantages over previous versions. The US Air Force has been the only one with such capabilities until recently. Its F-22 Raptor is about to be replaced by the F-35, while numerous competitors are appearing, such as the Chinese Chengdu J20 and the Russian Su-57 (known as the T-50 Su-57). None of the three main European aircraft companies (Eurofighter, Sweden’s Saab and France’s Dassault) are currently able to match the theoretical capabilities of the US, Chinese, and Russian jets, and arguably there is no immediate demand to do so – but at the same time, there is the risk that European defence capabilities may be degraded and that European defence industries may lose out.

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The current state of EU-Turkey relations and implications for Czech foreign policy

The current state of EU-Turkey relations and implications for Czech foreign policy

Author(s): Pelin Ayan Musil / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Turkey relations; Czech foreign policy; global human rights sanctions regime; immigration; climate change;

The Czech Republic should approach the EU-Turkey relationship from the perspective of how to bring back the EU’s democratizing influence over Turkey because the decline of democracy in the country is conducive to its unilateral and disruptive foreign policy in areas that are of strategic importance to the EU. The EU has recently adopted a global human rights sanctions regime that targets autocratizing regimes responsible for human rights violations, which can potentially include Turkey. Yet, some softer mechanisms contributing to democratization, such as the strengthening of the linkage between autonomous civil society organizations (CSOs) in Turkey and their European counterparts, are also worth considering as a foreign policy tool. The Czech Republic’s concern about the decline of democracy and rule of law worldwide makes it ideal that its foreign policy should employ such a soft strategy toward Turkey. It can motivate its own CSOs to increase their linkages with the CSOs that have managed to remain autonomous within Turkey’s polarized domestic setting. To this end, the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs can consider including Turkey as one of the priority countries in its Transition Promotion Program. The potential transnational cooperation between the Czech CSOs and the autonomous CSOs in Turkey can focus on less controversial issues for Turkey that still, however, constitute urgent challenges for both the Czech Republic and Turkey. Immigration and climate change are two such exemplary issues.

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The controversial US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and its international consequences

The controversial US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and its international consequences

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Iran; JCPOA; Donald Trump; Israel; US Threats; nuclear weapons;

On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump went through with his threat and, this time, has not submitted his certification of the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement to the US Congress for approval. According to Trump, the document is the “worst deal” of Obama Democratic administration. He made his negative decision despite Iranʼs positive performance in the inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

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Two important summits of President Trump and nuclear disarmament expectations

Two important summits of President Trump and nuclear disarmament expectations

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Security policy; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Russia; Nuclear arms; Kim Jong-un; denuclearization; Vladimir Putin; American-Soviet treaty INF;

Somewhat surprisingly, in a relatively short time interval, approximately over the course of one month in the middle of this year, two important meetings of the American President Donald Trump were held with the highest representatives of two countries which pose long-term security problems to the USA: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (hereinafter the DPRK) and the Russian Federation (hereinafter the RF). The meeting with the North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was held on June 12, 2018 in Singapore, and that with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 16, 2018 in Helsinki.

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Is There a Threat of a Repeated Deployment of Nuclear “Eurorockets” From the Cold War Period in Europe?

Is There a Threat of a Repeated Deployment of Nuclear “Eurorockets” From the Cold War Period in Europe?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Cold War history; INF Treaty; security; USA; Russia;

Will the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the American-Soviet INF Treaty of 1987 become a possible reality? The Treaty prohibits ground-launched shorter and the middle-range missiles (500–5,500 kms) with nuclear or conventional warheads. The Treaty´s security significance and its main parameters, the legal framework of the withdrawal and the reasons of both parties for accusing each other of violating the Treaty, are discussed in the article as well. In its conclusion the article, among other things, explains the context of the possible termination of the Treaty, and its consequences for the U.S.-Russia arms-control architecture.

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Free Willy! Japan Resumes Commercial Whale Hunting

Free Willy! Japan Resumes Commercial Whale Hunting

Author(s): Veronika Bílková / Language(s): English

Keywords: Commercial Whale Hunting; Japan; protection of whales; international law;

In late 2018, Japan announced that it would withdraw from the International Convention on the Regulation of Whaling and leave the International Whaling Commission. It did so due to its disapproval of the ban on commercial whaling, which has been in force for the Parties of the Convention since 1986, and to its decision to resume whale hunt since the summer of 2019. This reflection first gives an overview of the evolution and the structure of the international legal regime related to whaling and of the history of Japan’s relationship with this regime. It then shows that the Japan’s attempt to justify the resumption of commercial whaling by the principle of sustainable use of living marine resources cannot be successful for both practical and normative reasons.

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The Regional Format 16+1: Early Rusting, Still Alive and Expanding Into 17+1

The Regional Format 16+1: Early Rusting, Still Alive and Expanding Into 17+1

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): English

Keywords: 16+1 format; 17+1; EU-China competitive tension; USA; CEE;

The sub-regional multilateral format of China and 16 post-communist states (16+1) proved that it could last seven years and that it has the potential to absorb new members. Consequently, the European Union is increasingly concerned about its potentially divisive effects on the EU’s unity. The expected economic benefits of 16+1 for the European partners have been scarcely relevant; still, the European states exploit the 16+1 format for strengthening their bilateral agendas with China. Amidst the trade war with China, the US regards China’s rising influence in Central Europe as a political issue. Beijing’s priority in Europe is to calm down the tension with the EU, Germany, and France over the 16+1 platform. However, the accession of Greece to the enlarged format of 17+1 in the recent 16+1 summit in Dubrovnik and the gaining of support for the Belt and Road Initiative in Italy enable China to establish its foothold on the European South’s doorstep in connection with the 17+1 regional platform.

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The Syrian Safe Zone and International Law

The Syrian Safe Zone and International Law

Author(s): Bríd Ní Ghráinne / Language(s): English

Keywords: International law; Safe-zone; Turkey; Syria; returning refugees;

On Wednesday 9 October 2019, Turkey launched a cross-border operation in Northern Syria. Turkey justified its actions as a response to an ‘imminent terrorist threat’ from Kurdish-led forces. Its operation was directed at pushing back these groups from its border and creating a ‘safe zone’ in Syria where up to two million Syrian refugees can be resettled. This reflection aims to assess (i) whether the Turkish operation to establish the safe zone was lawful; and (ii) whether the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the safe zone is in conformity with international law.

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Covid-19, Border Closures, and International Law

Covid-19, Border Closures, and International Law

Author(s): Bríd Ní Ghráinne / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid-19; International law; pandemic; border issues; refugees;

Covid-19 pays no heed to borders. Globalisation has carried the virus from a market in Wuhan, China, to almost every country in the world. In response to the virus, some governments have closed their borders to refugees and/or have pushed back refugees from their territories, even though they are well-aware of the dire circumstances that have caused these people to flee their homes. This reflection sets out the compatibility of such practices with international refugee and human rights law. It argues that while states may put in place measures to restrict the spread of the virus (such as health screening, testing, and/or quarantine) vis a vis refugees, such measures may not result in refoulement or in denying them an effective opportunity to seek asylum.

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Biden's Administration and Its Security Policy as Regards Nuclear Weapons

Biden's Administration and Its Security Policy as Regards Nuclear Weapons

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joseph Biden; security policy; nuclear weapons; New START Treaty; Open Skies Treaty;

The reflection deals with possibilities of finding at solution to the main nuclear arms control and nonproliferation issues in the wider international context from the point of view of President Joe Biden's Democratic administration's declared new approach as regards security policy. The closing part pays attention to some matters which could complicate and/or halt the implementation of the planned steps. There is a certain hope that the new administration will assume a more cooperative stance as regards the reduction and elimination of nuclear weapons and other security matters. The process of the extension of the ten-year validity of the last arms control treaty, the US-Russia New START Treaty, for five more years has been launched successfully. The international community also expects, besides the continuation of the US-Russia arms control talks, the renewal of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) and the continuation of the dialog on denuclearization with the DPRK. The Biden administration's position as regards the historically important the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which entered into force at the beginning of this year, will be in the centre of attention due to the US intention to renew its leading position in the arms control and nonproliferation process. The supporters of the international measures to strengthen the trust and security within the Euro-Atlantic space would particularly welcome the renewal of the USA's membership in the international Open Skies Treaty (OST).

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