Publisher: Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

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Stability, sustainability and success in the Sahel: the next steps for the Czech engagement

Stability, sustainability and success in the Sahel: the next steps for the Czech engagement

Author(s): Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň,Jan Daniel,Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

Keywords: relations of the Czech Republic with Africa; Sahel; stability and security; UN; peacekeeping mission; sustainability and economy; poverty;

As a follow-up up to the military involvement of the Czech Republic in the region since 2013 and the consequent rural development projects there, the whole-of-government strategy towards the Sahel (G5) is an expression of responsibility and responsiveness to the related security challenges for the European Union and its African partners. By subscribing to the security-development nexus, Czechia recently reinforced its diplomatic presence in the Sahel and spread its activities to the areas of health, migration and civil society. To make its contribution to the Coalition for the Sahel sustainable and complementary to the EU’s efforts, Czechia should update its national strategy to build the Sahel’s forward resilience, expand the governance and development pillars and mainstream human rights and gender. It should also improve the financial planning and mainstream the Sahel in the current budget lines to mobilise domestic expertise, gain public support for the Strategy’s long-term implementation and give credence to the Sahel as a priority during the upcoming Czech presidency of the EU in 2022.

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How should Europe address Iran’s missile proliferation activities?

How should Europe address Iran’s missile proliferation activities?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Europe; missile activities and threats; Iran’s missile programme; developing missiles;

One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.

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Building planetary defense governance: a proposal for multigenerational, financially sustainable and scientifically beneficial planetary defense

Building planetary defense governance: a proposal for multigenerational, financially sustainable and scientifically beneficial planetary defense

Author(s): Nikola Schmidt / Language(s): English

Keywords: defense governance; Planetary defense; threat;

Planetary defense is a well-established scientific program which is currently reaching its milestone through a demonstration of a kinetic impactor deflection method by the DART space craft. Besides this deflection demonstration mission, planetary defense depends on astronomical observations. However, the threat of being hit by an asteroid is a low probability but high impact natural phenomenon which requires a multigenerational, financially sustainable, and scientifically beneficial program. While the scientists might be interested in discovering asteroids, they might not be interested in following up on them for generations; nor are they experts in building global planetary defense governance. Moreover, planetary defense capabilities, which are successively being developed, will sooner or later be considered as dual-use technologies. Given this dynamic, and to continue the development of planetary defense capabilities, not only spacefaring states need a regime under which they can act if others are under threat. This paper argues that given the milestone of DART and the follow-up HERA mission, the time has come to open a serious discussion over establishing global planetary defense governance in the shape of a planetary defense security community following multilateral principles similar to those of NATO but in a significantly smaller form. Small states have capacities to contribute to such a community (the principle of diffuse responsibility); they do it already in the current scientific planetary defense programs but in case of an imminent threat non-space-faring states need assurance that the existing planetary defense capabilities will be used for their benefit (the principle of indivisibility) and not misused. The answer is to establish a security community. These communities have proved to be surprisingly successful in the past, and the current planetary defense scientific community has almost everything that is needed to begin the discussions over the governance model of how we will defend Earth as humankind if scientists can already demonstrate it.

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The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

Author(s): Artur KOLDOMASOV,Taras Prodaniuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine; Russian invasion of Ukraine; democracy; economy; European solidarity;

Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is also one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU into the role of the main guardian of the countryʼs post-war reconstruction. This paper recommendsthat the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organize a comprehensive assistance in this regard and identifies its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in the post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritizing one over the other.

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Common Fears, Common Opportunities? Czechia and Norway in the Changing International Context

Common Fears, Common Opportunities? Czechia and Norway in the Changing International Context

Author(s): Kristin Haugevik,Benjamin Tallis,MORTEN S. ANDERSEN,Mark Galeotti,Jakub Godzimirski,Jan Mazač,ØYVIND SVENDSEN,Elena ZHIRUKHINA / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czechia; Norway; disorder; institutional fear; security; NATO; energy security;

“Every change of scene requires new expositions, descriptions, explanations,” Milan Kundera once observed. With long-dominant structures in flux, European states – and perhaps smaller ones in particular – are now forced to rethink their foreign policy approaches and practices. While the changing international context has generally created anxiety and uncertainty, fear can also have productive effects. It can create opportunities – and incentives – for re-assessing as well as for diversifying and intensifying support networks and reaching out to new partners.

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Better Protection of the Rule of Law – Or of European Taxpayers’ Money

Better Protection of the Rule of Law – Or of European Taxpayers’ Money

Author(s): Tamás Lattmann / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rule of law; EU law; member states’ taxpayers’ money; Treaty on the Euro-pean Union (TEU);

The European Parliament has made a first decision about a new regulation, aiming for better protecting the rule of law in member states, by possibly employing financial sanctions in case of short-comings. This reflection explains the difference between the pro-posed procedure and already existing mechanisms, sheds light on the background of the new legislation and addresses some of the questions it may raise related to EU law, member state sovereignty and its possible effects.

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Will outer space be weaponized?

Will outer space be weaponized?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: use of space; Earth’s orbit; weaponization of outer space; Missle Defense Review; International law;

This essay discusses the main elements of the American security document called the Missile Defense Review 2019, which was presented by the US Ministry of Defense in January 2019. It covers the possible reasons for the postponed publication of the document and informs about the main legal documents dealing with the peaceful use of space. It compares the current document with the similar one from 2010, which was published by the Obama administration. It also focuses on the possibility of the deployment of US space-based interceptors in the Earth’s orbit. In this context it analyses the possible negative consequences of such a development, especially that it could lead to the beginning of a phase of a high risk weaponizations of outer space and the start of an arms race in that domain.

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Will the validity of the last US-Russia arms-control treaty, the new start treaty, be extended?

Will the validity of the last US-Russia arms-control treaty, the new start treaty, be extended?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: US-Russia arms-control treaty; START Treaty; US missile defense;

The official title of the New START Treaty is the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The ten-year validity of the Treaty with expire on February 5, 2021, though there is the possibility of its extension for a further five years. The key question is whether both participating countries will agree with the mentioned extension. If not, more than 90% of the nuclear weapons in their possession (out of the total number of ca. 13,900 weapons) will not be subject to any arms-control limitation for the first time since 1972.

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The conference on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

The conference on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction; security crisis;

The historically first session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction was held on 18–22 November 2019 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, pursuant to General Assembly decision 73/546. Twenty three Middle Eastern states, four observer states (Chína, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom), three relevant international organizations (the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit) and some other international organzations e.g. the LAS, the OIC and the EU, participated in the session, which was presided over by Jordanian Ambassador Sima Bahous. At the open sessions, non-governmental organizations took part as well. The United States and Israel declined the invitation to take part. In the conclusion of the conference, the participating states consensually approved the seven-point Political Declaration, which has a general and proclamatory character, and is an appendix to the Final Report (A/CONF.236/6).

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Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: New START Treaty; The Outer Space Treaty; security situation; US-Russia security relations;

If Trump’s administration refuses the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to extend the validity of the last US-Russian arms-control treaty – the New START Treaty – it could have many negative consequences. A lot of arms-control experts, including the former US and Russian Ministers of Foreign Affairs Madeleine Albright and Igor Ivanov, as mentioned in their February declaration, stressed their support of the Treaty’s extension. The New START Treaty, which restricts the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons, will expire in February 2021 but its wording enables its extension for five years more. Concerns related to the negative consequences of non-extension of the Treaty include, among others, that there could be a suppression of the strategic stability in the use of the space domain as a result of the end of the Treaty’s complex and intrusive verification system. The potential demise of the Treaty would have various negative impacts; besides the end of notifications, the exchange of telemetric and information data, on-site inspections etc., in connection with this the Treaty’s non-extension would especially have an effect on the binding principle of mutual non-interference with the national technical means (NTMs) of verification of the other party.

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The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Security policy; USA; Russia; Nuclear arms control; Jo Biden; North Korean nuclear and missile program; Iranian nuclear program;

The reflection deals with the current state of the nuclear arms control and disarmament process with a stressing on the role of the Biden administrationʼs security policy. The policy follows the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) of March 2021 till the summaries of the new relevant security documents, i.e. the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), will be published early next year. The reflection deals also with the US-Russia strategic dialogue, the current development in the effort to reach the Korean Peninsulaʼs denuclearization and the restoration of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). The final part of the reflection pays attention to some of the main factors of the USʼs internal and international policy that could influence the implementation of the declared intentions of the above mentioned security documents.

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Can Anonymous Be Prosecuted? A Reflection Under International Law in the Framework of the Current Armed Conflict in Ukraine

Can Anonymous Be Prosecuted? A Reflection Under International Law in the Framework of the Current Armed Conflict in Ukraine

Author(s): Federica Cristani / Language(s): English

Keywords: International law; Armed conflict in Ukraine; Cyber-criminal law; Anonymous;

This reflection offers a concise analysis under national and international law of the cyber-operations carried out by Anonymous in the context of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. It is highlighted that each one of the individuals acting as Anonymous is subject to the relevant national (cyber-criminal) law jurisdictions. Moreover, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, they can be subject to the law of armed conflict. If their cyber-conduct amounts to “direct participation in hostilities”, they can even become targetable according to international humanitarian law. Also, when Anonymous directly participates in hostilities from a state that is not party to the armed conflict, the neutrality of non-belligerent countries can be challenged.

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The present development in the nuclear arms control

The present development in the nuclear arms control

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear arms control; security crisis; States-Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW); USA; Russia; Ukraine; New START;

The reflection highlights the need to increase the international nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control efforts, particularly in the wake of the security crisis development triggered by the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it examines the courses and results of two important conferences dealing with nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, that were organized this year. These conferences were the first Meeting of the States-Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna in June and the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which took place in August at the UN Headquarters in New York. The conclusions contain some expected courses of action to reduce the risk of a nuclear war and a nuclear arms race.

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International law with Chinese characteristics. The South China Sea Territorial Dispute

International law with Chinese characteristics. The South China Sea Territorial Dispute

Author(s): Sardor ALLAYAROV / Language(s): English

Keywords: South China Sea Territorial Dispute; International law; China; Geopolitics;

China actively participated in the drafting of the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and ratified it in 1996. The domestic legal system of China also contains a set of laws such as the Law on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone (1992), and the Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the Continental Shelf (1998).

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The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nuclear arms dilemma; AI and nuclear weapons; USA; Russia; Chinese nuclear capacity;

Nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity, as are the increasingly intense manifestation of climate change. The Reflection describes more broadly the main risk factors of this threat, including artificial intelligence (AI). In this context, it highlights the impasse which the US-Russian arms control process and strategic dialogue have reached as a result of their strained relations and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also analyses the expected developments in the nuclear weapon field, taking into account the US Pentagon’s warning about the possible growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. In particular, it concludes by noting the main dilemmas for further development in this area: either the initiation of arms control and risk reduction negotiations by the major nuclear powers or the growing spiral of a costly and security-risk-laden nuclear arms race. The possibility of an ethical and moral commitment by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the so-called P5 (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK), to “responsible nuclear behaviour“, which is promoted by the US administration, appears as a temporary solution to this security crisis.

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World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Scénáře světové politiky 2012–2013

Author(s): Tomáš Weiss,Vít Střítecký,Lucia Najšlová,Petr Kratochvíl,Michal Kořan,Nik Hynek,Vladimír Handl,Rudolf Fürst,Jan Eichler,Mats Braun,Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Germany; Central Europe; EU; Turkey; Cyprus; China; USA; Iran; Bahrain; Afghanistan; Russia; Elections; Geopolitics;

The document presents a collection of speculative scenarios for world politics in 2012-2013, employing a scenario-building method to enrich foreign policy debate. It discusses the potential impacts of various global and regional developments on the Czech Republic and the EU, including fiscal pacts, the role of Germany in the Eurozone, Central European dynamics, EU relations with Turkey and China, the aftermath of American elections, the Iranian crisis, the situation in Afghanistan, the Asia-Pacific region, and Russian elections. The scenarios are not precise forecasts but internally consistent hypotheses that connect actors with future effects, aiming to capture key dynamics and possible consequences of otherwise conceivable actions.

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World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mitchell Belfer,Mats Braun,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Nik Hynek,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Lucia Najšlová,Vít Střítecký,Tomáš Weiss / Language(s): English

Keywords: Fiscal policy; Germany; Central Europe; EU; Turkey; Cyprus; China; USA; Iran; Bahrain; Afghanistan; Asia-Pacific Area; Russia; Presidential elections; Geopolitics;

Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.

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Scenarios of the development of the international security environment (2020)

Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2020)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Transatlantic space; European Union; Central Europe; Russia and the Eastern Neighborhood of the EU; Middle East; North and Sub-Saharan Africa; China;

The document discusses the complexity of the global security environment and the emergence of hyper-risks due to interconnected anthropogenic systems. It suggests increasing resilience against hyper-risks by dividing existing systems into smaller units and creating circuit breakers to prevent cascading global reactions. The publication explores creative thinking about the future without precise probabilistic predictions, acknowledging the sudden and unexpected nature of significant events in complex systems, famously termed "black swans" by Nassim Taleb. It also examines geopolitical risks, the relative decline of US power, and the potential for a G-zero World scenario. The project's methodology is based on the complexity of the security environment, rejecting precise probabilistic forecasts and instead offering internally consistent hypotheses about future developments to aid in strategic thinking.

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Scenarios of the development of the international security environment (2016)

Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2016)

Author(s): Lukáš Tichý,Vít Střítecký,Petr Kratochvíl,Michal Kořan,Vladimír Handl,Rudolf Fürst,Jan Eichler,Tomáš Dopita,Marek Čejka,Mats Braun,Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Transatlantic space; European Union; Central Europe; Russia; post-Soviet space; Middle East; North and Sub-Saharan Africa; China; East and Southeast Asia; Pacific;

Leitmotivem nedávného kolektivního výhledu Strategic Trends (2015), redigovaného Oliverem Thränertem a Martinem Zapfem z ETH Zürich, je krize normativního řádu světové politiky, tedy krize norem jednání – ne vždy dodržovaných, ale přesto sdílených. Tak či onak tato krize sehrává ústřední roli i v projekcích mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí předkládaných v scénáristické studii, kterou právě držíte v rukou. A byť je tato krize řádu často vnímána jako cosi vysoce abstraktního, nekonkrétního a neuchopitelného, její regionální efekty jsou jasně zřetelné: od „zelených mužíků“ zabírajících území svrchovaného státu ve východním sousedství NATO a EU až po protostátní fundamentalistické aktéry jako ISIL s ambicemi překreslit politickou mapu Blízkého východu a okolí.

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Scenarios of the development of the international security environment (2017)

Scénáře vývoje mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí (2017)

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mats Braun,Marek Čejka,Tomáš Dopita,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Vít Střítecký,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Transatlantic space; European Union; Central Europe; Russia; post-Soviet space; Middle East; North and Sub-Saharan Africa; China; East and Southeast Asia; Pacific; World Political Order;

Držíte v rukou závěrečnou studii vznikající v rámci projektu TA ČR Scénáře mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí. Uzavírá se jí tříletý cyklus kolektivních spekulací týmu soustředěného v Ústavu mezinárodních vztahů o možnostech vývoje tohoto prostředí. Projekce, které vznikly jako výstupy těchto spekulací, nemají ambici být přesnými předpověďmi. Vysoká komplexita mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí jako systému, kde dochází k dynamické interakci množství předem daných skutečností, hybných sil a kritických neznámých, možnost takové předpovědi téměř vylučuje. Naše scénáře sledují jiný cíl: kombinací prediktivního (jaká budoucnost bude) a explorativního (jaká budoucnost může být) přístupu a záměrnou vícečetností podobně pravděpodobných projekcí vývoje v každém sektoru bezpečnostního prostředí být nástroji tvořivého promýšlení možných budoucností, rozšiřování horizontu úvah o tom, jak přispět k naplňování jejich z hlediska české zahraniční politiky nejvýhodnějších variant a zkoušení zažitých předpokladů o tom, co bezpečnostním prostředím, ve kterém se Česká republika nachází, hýbe.

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