Publisher: Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Continuity and Change in the U.S. Foreign and Security Policy with the Accession of President Obama

Continuity and Change in the U.S. Foreign and Security Policy with the Accession of President Obama

Author(s): Nik Hynek / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; foreign and security policy; president Obama; American administration; George W. Bush;

The question of continuity and change in the U.S. Foreign/Security Policy (henceforth USFSP) after the accession of President Obama can be constructively studied from two complementary perspectives: the thematic perspective and the procedural perspective. This method determines the structure of this analysis. In the beginning, key issues of the USFSP in the context of the change of the American administration are examined. A part of the discussion of the transition from the Republican administration of George W. Bush to the Democratic administration of Barack Obama will be an attempt to follow the continuity and change in the key issues of the USFSP and the change in the prioritization of issues. For a comparison of the approaches of Bush and Obama, one needs to approach the topic indirectly due to the fact that Obama’s presidency is still in its early stages, which means that we still cannot completely evaluate the USFSP under the current American president. It is precisely the fact that it is impossible to compare eight years of the government of George W. Bush with approximately seven months of the Obama government that is the cause of the indirect approach of this evaluation. It will be based on a combination of extrapolation from existing but still scattered early signals and defining what can be regarded a success when considering the goals of the primary issues of the USFSP on the basis of Obama’s publically known positions. Subsequently, an evaluation of the preferred procedural means of reaching the set goals in the framework of the central issues of the USFSP will tie into the perspective related to changes in thematic priorities. The main finding of the first part will be that even though Obama is seen as the president who put an end to several trends that were introduced by Bush, such a conclusion must necessarily be rejected as reductive or even misleading. In contrast to this, in the second part, the analysis will point out several shifts associated with the change of the administration.

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The Federal Republic and the Treaty of Lisbon (LS): New German Integration Policies?

Spolková republika a Lisabonská smlouva (LS): nové mantinely německé integrační politiky?

Author(s): Vladimír Handl,Barbora Veselá / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: The Federal Republic of Germany; EU; Treaty of Lisbon; integration policy; national sovereignty;

Spolková republika Německo zůstává klíčovým pro-integračním aktérem, jehož zájmy i identita jsou těsně spojeny s existencí a dalším rozvojem EU. V německé integrační politice ale převládá pragmatický přístup, soustředění na politiku malých kroků, bezprostřední zájmový horizont a realistickou kalkulaci rizik, zisků a ztrát. • Spolková republika Německo neusiluje o dominantní či hegemonní postavení v EU. Převládá snaha jednotlivých aktérů a institucí (kancléřka, její úřad, ministerstvo zahraničních věcí) uchovat si své institucionální postavení především na domácí scéně. Není v jejich zájmu výrazné posilování institucí EU a chybí ambice, usilovat v těchto institucích o vůdčí postavení. • Zároveň sílí tlak a role aktérů s právem veta (veto players – země, Spolkový ústavní soud, parlament), kteří se snaží omezit dosavadní relativní volnost exekutivy v oblasti integrační politiky. Německý Spolkový ústavní soud (dále SÚS) se navíc svým rozsudkem o LS postavil do čela snahy „zachránit národní stát“ a vnímá se jako „strážce brány“ mezi národní suverenitou a Evropskou unií. • Ke svému konci dospělo tradiční „německé“ vnímání integračního procesu jako neustálé snahy o zdokonalování, posilování a prohlubování institucionální výstavby EU. Převládá vyčerpání z procesu přijetí a ratifikace Evropské ústavní smlouvy (EÚS) a LS, chybí vůle i potřeba další institucionální vývoj byť jen zvažovat. Další reforma institucí EU tak není ve střednědobé budoucnosti ani žádoucí, ani představitelná. • Panuje obava z toho, že vytváření Evropské služby vnější akce (ESVA) v nejbližším období zostří mocenský boj v rámci EU. Opakuje se situace, kdy se v institucích EU nejlépe prosazují zástupci Velké Británie či středomořských států, kdežto relativně zdrženlivé Německo se cítí znevýhodněno. • Nová situace znamená změnu v „německém myšlení“, na niž politika není zcela připravena. Místo akcentu na institucionální rozvoj EU se do centra integračního procesu dostává obsah, programy a projekty, jež by měly současný institucionální rámec naplnit. Německá politika zejména díky odporu SÚS a vzhledem k omezování relativní autonomie exekutivy směřuje při provádění integrační politiky k účelově zaměřené spolupráci, jež bude posilovat spíše mezivládní úroveň spolupráce. Situace s sebou nese riziko, že tato spolupráce může za jistých okolností probíhat vně mechanismů EU a navíc posílí mocensko-politický aspekt ve vývoji evropské politiky – a tedy i různé projevy existující asymetrie.

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The Future of Diplomacy: European and Global Challenges

The Future of Diplomacy: European and Global Challenges

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): English

Keywords: diplomacy; globalization; geopolitics; EU; The European External Action Service;

As identified by the participants of the 1st Czech-French Forum of Young Talents, diplomacy needs to face globalization, geopolitical shifts, the call for transparency and budgetary restrictions. The diplomat has to act as a manager and interpreter of knowledge in a world characterized by an overflow of information. The need for a strong and effective EU diplomacy is not disputed but the European interest has not been clearly defined so far. The European External Action Service seems to offer an institutional setting that will help to articulate the European interest through everyday practice. The contradictory ideal of a generalist diplomat has not waned, but the diplomat must update its competences, enter the public debate and keep updated with technological progress.

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Foreign Development Cooperation in 2020: An Old Fortress, a Black Passenger, a Clever Thoroughbred, or a Good European?

Zahraniční rozvojová spolupráce v roce 2020: Stará pevnost, Černý pasažér, Chytrá horákyně nebo Dobrá Evropanka?

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: politics; Czech development; globalization; EU; international relations;

Policy paper identifikuje hlavní trendy a nejistoty, které ovlivňují českou rozvojovou spolupráci na globální, evropské a domácí úrovni. Na jejich základě nabízí čtyři scénáře vývoje do roku 2020 a obecná doporučení na třech úrovních. Na domácí úrovni se jeví jako nutná podmínka stanovení dlouhodobé vize co nejvyšší transparence zahraniční rozvojové spolupráce a vyjasnění zájmů jednotlivých aktérů. Vláda by neměla kvůli svým zdánlivým krátkodobým a střednědobým cílům bránit kolektivnímu jednání Evropské unie. Vláda by měla vypracovat koncepční dokument přístupu ke globalizaci a rozvoji, který by představil vizi české role v měnícím se globálním prostředí.

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Future Perspectives of U.S.-Czech Relations

Future Perspectives of U.S.-Czech Relations

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych,Nik Hynek / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Czech Republic; international relations; security; NATO; liberal power; human rights and freedoms; Transatlantic community;

In the area of security, the Czech Republic and the U.S. should build closer cooperation around President Obama’s Prague Agenda, NATO Ballistic Missile Defense project and in the field of post-conflict reconstruction while working together to mitigate obstacles to constructive NATO-EU relations In economic relations, they should enhance cooperation taking full advantage of the Strategic Dialogue framework both in terms of discussing global and transatlantic trade issues, and in boosting bilateral commerce Regarding values, they should cooperate more on democratic transition in Eastern Europe, including through the framework of Eastern Partnership in which the U.S. should become involved The United States and the Czech Republic are bound together by shared values, history, and global political, security and economic interests. In the words of Ambassador Eisen at Institute of International Relations, they are bound in a “permanent friendship”. The Czech Republic has seen the U.S. as a liberal power and the key contributor to security in the Euratlantic area. The United States could rely on Czech contribution towards promotion of human rights and freedoms and responding to the serious threats the Transatlantic community has faced in the recent past.

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How to continue in nuclear disarmament

Jak dál v jaderném odzbrojování

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: nuclear disarmament; Czech foreign policy; militarization of the universe; Prague agenda; transparency;

Policy paper upozorňuje na možnost zpomalení jaderněodzbrojovacího procesu, rozebírá hlavní důvody tohoto vývoje z hlediska řešení některých kontroverzních otázek a připomíná nutnost zvýšené aktivity nejaderných států k dosažení vize světa bez jaderných zbraní. S přihlédnutím k úspěšné pražské dubnové konferenci „The Prague Agenda – the Way Forward“ a získanému kreditu by proto bylo pro českou zahraniční politiku žádoucí aktivněji se zapojovat na různých odzbrojovacích fórech do vytvářených iniciativ, případně přicházet s vlastními návrhy. Oblasti možného zapojení do jaderněodzbrojovacího procesu zahrnují: sjednání smluv zakazujících použití jaderných zbraní a militarizaci vesmíru; urychlení vstupu smlouvy CTBT v platnost s důrazem na pozitivní dopad ratifikace této smlouvy Senátem USA; transparentnost, včetně vytvoření registru jaderných zbraní a štěpného materiálu Významnou úlohu by také sehrálo aktivní působení české zahraniční politiky ve prospěch svolání blízkovýchodní konference v r. 2012 s účastí všech zemí tohoto krizového regionu.

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Might have the Czech Republic a long-term strategy in a relationship with China?

Má mít Česká republika dlouhodobou strategii ve vztazích s Čínou?

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Czech Republic; China; relations; cultural policy; non-governmental institutions; economic diplomacy;

Čína projevuje dosud nebývalý zájem o střední Evropu, České republice se nabízí možnost zlepšení politických kontaktů. Česká republika by měla zhodnotit svou zkušenost a začít více myslet a jednat strategicky. Zatím však ještě nebyla explicitně nastolena otázka, zda by Česká republika měla uvažovat o kompromisní a definitivní formulaci dlouhodobé strategie: čeho v Číně chceme dosáhnout a jaké k tomu zvolit dlouhodobé prostředky. Českou předností, osvědčenou v zemích Dálného východu, je kulturní atraktivita. Je třeba postavit kulturní politiku jako explicitní strategii, nad rámec již existujících aktivit, a využít ji jako koncept pro branding. Česká republika nemá v ČLR vzdělanou a vlivnou lobby, je také třeba posílit kontakty na úrovni nevládních institucí, proto je třeba bilaterální agendu odpolitizovat. Ekonomická diplomacie by měla být ještě více rozvinuta do regionů uvnitř Číny a personálně posílena.

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To Catch a Fogle

To Catch a Fogle

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; USA; Ryan Fogle; FBI; meetings of “illegals” detained in the U.S.; cyber threats; EU;

The Putin regime seems to have chosen to publicly expose Ryan Fogle not simply as a “tit-for-tat” for the embarrassing release of footage by the FBI of the meetings of “illegals” detained in the U.S. (2010) with Russian diplomats, but to gesture toward domestic audiences and to humiliate the U.S. in order to weaken its position in mutual negotiations, knowing that Washington may not be in the position to retaliate. For the EU, the episode is a reminder that even in the age of cyber threats the conventional spy war is far from over.

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ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-US “Reset”

ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-US “Reset”

Author(s): Yuri E. Fedorov / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; nuclear arsenals; security and defense; geopolitics; NATO;

The Obama administration recently suggested concluding a legally binding agreement on transparency that would confirm that American BMD does not pose a threat to Russia’s deterrence forces, and also concluding a framework agreement on further cutting Russian and American nuclear arsenals. The USA may be interested in reducing the tensions with Russia over the missile defense with a view to break the deadlock on a wide complex of hard security and proliferation issues, including the hot problems of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe and Iran and the North Korean nuclear programs, and also to ensure Russia’s support in managing regional crises – these days, especially that in Syria. Moscow probably agrees that it should negotiate a legally binding agreement on transparency and confidence building measures with the USA. At the same time Russia continues in asking for legally binding guarantees that the US BMD is not aimed against its strategic forces as the sine qua none of any other talks and agreements on nuclear weapons with the US. The Kremlin also may propose some trilateral consultations between the USA, Russia, and Europe on BMD with a view to involve some European circles that are skeptical about the missile defense in the debate. In a wider geopolitical context, Russia’s policy towards the BMD issue results from Moscow’s perception of the US quest for a compromise on strategic problems as a weakness. The US quest for a compromise may and most probably is used by Moscow to question the reliability of the American alliance obligations. It cannot be ruled out that there are plans for a certain “big deal” between the two countries, at the possibility of which Moscow hints. In the context of this deal, Russia would consent to new negotiations on further reductions of strategic nuclear weapons in exchange for the USA consenting to limit its non-nuclear strategic systems, take into account the conventional arms in Europe, limit the US naval activity in the seas around Europe and accept future Russian proposals on European security aimed at enfeebling NATO.

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European Strategic Autonomy: Distant but Irresistible

European Strategic Autonomy: Distant but Irresistible

Author(s): Michal Šimečka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; security; NATO; Donald Trump; EU's identity;

Under pressure from overlapping crises, the European Union is embracing a more assertive role in security. The election of Donald Trump has added a further sense of urgency and purpose to EU defense cooperation. The pursuit of European strategic autonomy is not just a matter of upgrading capabilities, building institutions, or re-calibrating EU–NATO cooperation. It is also a struggle to re-invent the EU’s identity. The Czech Republic emerged as a supporter of the new dynamic, but Prague should do more to back its rhetorical support with tangible commitments and policy leadership.

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Karabakh’s Twenty Years Crisis: The EU Should Do More

Karabakh’s Twenty Years Crisis: The EU Should Do More

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno Karabakh conflict; EU; foreign and security policy; 1994; Azerbaijan and Armenia; peace;

Twenty years have passed since an armistice in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict was concluded. EU can and should do more to facilitate its resolution. The Union’s security interests are at stake (energy), and it can use the hitherto neglected conflict to boost credibility of its foreign and security policy (CFSP) in the context of the Ukraine crisis which additionally makes the conflict parties (Armenia, Azerbaijan) uneasy of Russia’s intentions, a fact that the EU can use to its advantage. The EU can notably mobilize its comprehensive approach to address the conflict, promote a conciliatory narrative of history and future of peaceful coexistence, and declare readiness to assume peacekeeping tasks under the CSDP. Twenty years ago, on 12 May 1994, a ceasefire came into effect that ended the war in Nagorno Karabakh. Ever since, uneasy truce exists between parties Azerbaijan and Armenia, parties to the conflict. Inflammatory rhetoric has proliferated; and periodical skirmishes along the line of contact have cost more than 3,000 lives. The EU, while designing an ambitious agenda to create a ring of peaceful and prosperous states in its neighbourhood, has so far eschewed more direct engagement. This policy paper argues that it should eschew it no longer, and outlines how it can do so without excessive commitment on its part.

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Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?

Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?

Author(s): Anes Makul / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU enlargement; political and economic performance; Member States; EU accession; public opinion; Visegrad countries;

The EU enlargement has been questioned since the first enlargement round. Also, since the start of the global economic crisis, public support to further enlargement decreased significantly. Whether a turnaround in this trend will occur depends on whether there will be changes in several main dimensions. The EU and its member states, as well as the candidate and potential candidate states, need to improve their economic performances and provide opportunities and perspective to their younger generations. The political and economic performance of the newest member states, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, is a significant indicator that can shape the public opinion on further enlargement. The candidate and potential candidate states should be further encouraged and supported in their fulfilling of the accession criteria. The EU institutions and national governments should develop policies to explain to citizens the implications of further enlargement.

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What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections

What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections

Author(s): Zoltán Egeresi / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkish presidential elections; 2014; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; centralization of power; presidential system; EU;

The 2014 Turkish presidential elections have demonstrated that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP were able to overcome their previous political crises during the last, one-year-long eventful period, and they were successful in continuing to mobilize their electorate. Erdoğan’s victory at the presidential elections of 10 August 2014 may lead to the introduction of a presidential system and further centralization of power in Turkey. However, it can also be an overture for changes in the opposition. The EU has to keep being involved in Turkish domestic politics, especially in the democratization process, and support the emergence of a more plural Turkish political community.

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Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Author(s): Nikita Odintsov / Language(s): English

Keywords: developments in Afghanistan; 2014; terrorist groups; security and defense; refugee crisis; NGOs;

The prospects of stability in Central Asia after the 2014 withdrawal will be influenced by the developments in Afghanistan. Yet the overall fragility of the states in the region necessitates taking preventive measures. The previous strategies of the terrorist groups in the region allow us to identify a few focal points of strategic importance which must be protected. To achieve this, it is necessary to use private military companies and return Russian border guards to Tajikistan. Also, the Collective Security Treaty Organization must prepare for possible massive security and refugee crises. The implementation of state social policies can be outsourced to NGOs, which shall refrain from any political activity.

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Is there a civil war in Ukraine?

Odehrává se na Ukrajině občanská válka?

Author(s): Vít Beneš / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Czech Republic; EU; NATO; ethnic conflict; Russian minority; Ukraine; war;

Rozpad SSSR se dostal do fáze národnostního konfliktu (jugoslávský scénář). Česká republika, EU a NATO by proto neměly podceňovat riziko rozšíření etnického konfliktu i do dalších zemí s ruskou menšinou. Důležitou roli při iniciaci a eskalaci konfliktu hráli ruští nacionalisté / příslušníci ruských bezpečnostních složek (Girkin a spol.). Česká republika a EU by proto měly veřejně vyzvat Rusko k jejich vydání ke stíhání na Ukrajinu. Separatističtí velitelé nejsou reprezentanty Donbasu. Česká republika a EU by proto měly podpořit zapojení zákonných zástupců Doněcké a Luhanské oblasti do vyjednávacího procesu. Rusko se definitivně zdiskreditovalo jako údajný ochránce slovanských národů. Česká republika by proto měla rehabilitovat myšlenku slovanské vzájemnosti v její liberální podobě, očištěnou od nacionalistických a panslavistických bludů. Ve snaze porozumět současné válce na Ukrajině se často uchylujeme k historickým analogiím. Válka na Ukrajině bývá přirovnávána k minulým horkým, studeným i zamrzlým konfliktům. Svérázným způsobem se do této debaty zapojil i prezident Miloš Zeman. Nejdříve na Rhodosu označil ukrajinskou válku za pouhou „chřipku“, o týden později ukrajinský konflikt přirovnal k španělské občanské válce. Bohužel, doposud používané analogie se míjejí s realitou ukrajinské války. Čím tedy ukrajinská válka není? A čím může být?

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A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences

A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences

Author(s): Yury Fedorov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; violation; Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty; NATO; nuclear weapons; military growth;

Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) confirms that Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a robust tool preventing NATO from militarily opposing the Russian military expansion in the strategic rim stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. If Russia adds intermediate-range missiles to its armory the INF Treaty will collapse, thus challenging the USA and NATO with a dilemma: they could either to be reconciled with Russia’s growing military threat to Europe, or neutralize this threat by stationing American nuclear missiles near Russian borders. The countries of Central-Eastern Europe have to support deployment of new US nuclear weapons in Europe since it could be the only way to prevent a dangerous deterioration of the security landscape in the region.

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Why should the Visegrad Group support the Iranian Nuclear Deal?

Why should the Visegrad Group support the Iranian Nuclear Deal?

Author(s): Erzsébet N. Rózsa / Language(s): English

Keywords: Visegrad Group; The Islamic Republic of Iran; foreign policy and relations; nuclear weapons; security;

The Islamic Republic of Iran as a state format is a modernization experiment which bears all the formative identity elements of Iranianness, Shiite Islam and modernity in the European sense. Meanwhile, in its foreign policy and its relations to the world at large and to its region, the one and only aim is to ensure the survival of the system. In trying to achieve this aim, besides propagating its “universal” ideology (Iran is to be an Islamic Republic, and not a Shiite Islamic Republic) Iran tends to behave as an empire. The Iranian nuclear program is a derivative of both of these tendencies. The nuclear deal acknowledges Iran’s status and gradually terminates the sanctions against it, but cuts off the ways to an eventual nuclear weapon capability for Iran. The Visegrad countries should support the Iranian nuclear deal, as they have economic (diversification of energy resources and the opening of a 75 million market to which they so far have limited access) and security interests (migration of people from farther east to Europe as well as nuclear arms control and disarmament) related to the reintegration of Iran into the international system.

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Let's use more Czech public diplomacy in China!

Využijme více českou veřejnou diplomacii v Číně!

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: Czech Republic; public diplomacy; China; bilateral relations; soft power; economic growth; NGOs;

ČLR je dlouhodobě strategickou destinací českých národních zájmů. České bilaterální vztahy s Čínou dosáhly momentálně historicky nejvyšší úrovně a jsou stále na vzestupu. Vedle bilaterální agendy s ČLR je Česká republika ještě přítomna v multilaterálních formátech strategického partnerství EU–ČLR a regionálního sdružení 16 postkomunistických států s Čínou 1+16. Přesto hlavní váha české politiky stále spočívá na bilaterální úrovni. Českou předností je silná soft power ve východní Asii. Využijme ji ještě více, posilněme veřejnou diplomacii zaměřenou na podporu dobrého jména ČR v Číně. Efektem bude rostoucí ekonomický úspěch České republiky v Číně a posílení kontaktů na nevládní a individuální úrovni.

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Lost Hopes: Where to Go after the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?

Lost Hopes: Where to Go after the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); UN; the building blocks; Czech Republic; Israel;

The 9th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held from 27 April to 22 May 2015 at the UN Headquarters in New York, but it failed. The Czech Republic should engage in urging other countries to achieve progress in nuclear disarmament through a compromise approach known as “the building blocks”. In parallel, it should also actively support the process of emphasizing the humanitarian consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. Also, the Czech Republic’s good relations with Israel should focus on the support for holding a Middle East conference on the creation of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, a project enjoying long-term EU support. It would also be desirable for the Czech Republic to continue with its strong support for the achievement of the NPT’s universality, the early entry of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty into force and the start of a substantive debate about the main points at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

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Turmoil in Egypt: a Proxy Cold War among the Gulf States?

Turmoil in Egypt: a Proxy Cold War among the Gulf States?

Author(s): Máté Szalai / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arabian States; development of Arabian spring; Egyptian politics; cold war; Gulf agreement; Muslim Brotherhood;

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have played a huge role in the unfolding developments of the Arab Spring, especially in Egypt. Based on many pieces of evidence, we can set up an analytical framework for investigating the transformations of Egyptian politics between 2011 and 2013, according to which the turmoil was basically a proxy cold war fought by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait on one hand, and Qatar on the other. Although the Gulf agreement signed in April 2014 clearly shows the inevitability of the defeat of Qatar, Doha will remain an important player in the region, while the rebound of the Muslim Brotherhood is now unimaginable without the support of the tiny country.

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