Publisher: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych

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The ICJ Judgment on Preliminary Objections in Ukraine v. Russia

The ICJ Judgment on Preliminary Objections in Ukraine v. Russia

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: ICJ; judgement; Ukraine; Russia; Crimea; annexation;

The 8 November judgment by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the first one in a series of proceedings before major international tribunals initiated since 2014 by Ukraine against Russia. The proceedings are related to the Russian authorities’ support of illegal armed groups in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.

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Collapse of the “Grand Coalition” in Moldova

Collapse of the “Grand Coalition” in Moldova

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; Grand Coalition; Collapse;

On 14 November, the Moldovan parliament voted in the new cabinet of Ion Chicu, who is directed behind the scenes by President Igor Dodon, affiliated with the Socialists. It comes after the collapse of Maia Sandu’s government, led by the pro-European ACUM bloc, just two days earlier. The transition of the bloc to the opposition and takeover of power by an informal alliance of the Socialists and Democrats may result in delays or avoidance of pro-European reforms in Moldova.

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Opposition Candidate Wins Presidential Election in Sri Lanka

Opposition Candidate Wins Presidential Election in Sri Lanka

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sri Lanka; president; elections; opposition candidate; Gotabaya Rajapaksa;

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s victory in the presidential election in Sri Lanka (16 November) could lead to an end to the political crisis and improvement in security. However, the likely withdrawal from cooperation with UN bodies seeking accountability for crimes committed during the civil war may worsen Sri Lanka’s relations with the EU and allow China to increase its influence there again.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Indicted

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Indicted

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; prime minister; Benjamin Netanyahu; Indiction;

Israel’s Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit on 21 November charged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with corruption, breach of trust, and fraud. The indictments exacerbate the political crisis in Israel but do not necessarily mean the swift removal of Netanyahu from office.

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Left-Wing Candidates Victorious in SPD Leadership Election

Left-Wing Candidates Victorious in SPD Leadership Election

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; SPD; Left-Wing; results;

Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans won the leadership election of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). In the second round, the respective SPD deputy to the Bundestag and former finance minister of North Rhine-Westphalia won the support of 53,06% of the group’s members, beating the favourites, Olaf Scholz, the current finance minister of Germany and deputy chancellor, and the Klara Geywitz, a former member of the Brandenburg parliament. The election result is a signal that party members want the grouping to have a more left-wing profile.

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NATO Leaders Meeting in London

NATO Leaders Meeting in London

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; leaders; meeting; London; security; policy;

The meeting of NATO heads of state and government in London on 3-4 December confirmed that on its 70th anniversary, the Alliance is still fundamentally important to its members. The Allies managed to overcome political tensions, related mostly to remarks by the presidents of the U.S., France, and Turkey, and adopt a joint declaration on further NATO adaptation to current threats and challenges. At the same time, divisions within the Alliance remain visible and may eventually weaken the implementation of the London decisions.

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The Normandy Format Summit - No Real Progress

The Normandy Format Summit - No Real Progress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Donbas; Normandy Format Summit;

The Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) summit, held in Paris on 9 December for the first time since 2016, did not bring any breakthrough in the negotiations regarding settling the situation in Donbas. The Russian authorities still lack the political will necessary to end the conflict.

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Political Deadlock in Israel

Political Deadlock in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; politics; elections; deadlock;

An attempt to build a coalition majority after the second elections this year in Israel have failed. Without concessions from the leaders of the major political forces, the next election, scheduled for 2 March 2020, may not resolve the unprecedented stalemate.

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Decisive Victory for the Conservatives in the 2019 UK General Election

Decisive Victory for the Conservatives in the 2019 UK General Election

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; General Election; Conservatives; Victory;

The Conservative Party won the 2019 general election with their strongest mandate to govern since Margaret Thatcher’s success in the 1980s and backed by the largest parliamentary majority since Tony Blair in 2001. The results should provide enough votes for the swift ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement and the opening of talks on the EU-UK future relationship in February. The Tories’ success was possible due to the fierce competition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The results also increase the likelihood of independence and unification referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland, respectively.

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Still No Deal in the Belarus-Russia Integration Negotiations

Still No Deal in the Belarus-Russia Integration Negotiations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; integration; negotiations; gas; oil; prices; tax;

Despite the extension of negotiations, on 20 December in St. Petersburg, the presidents of Russia and Belarus did not sign documents deepening economic integration of the countries because of a lack of agreement on the prices for gas and oil and arrangements related to their tax codes.

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Latest Yuan Depreciation Escalates U.S.–China Dispute

Latest Yuan Depreciation Escalates U.S.–China Dispute

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; China; Yuan; Depreciation;

The U.S. and China are escalating their trade conflict despite negotiations to resolve it. In response to new tariffs to be imposed by the U.S., the Chinese authorities allowed their currency to depreciate below the symbolic value of 7 yuan per dollar on 5 August, which led to plunges in major global stock exchanges, among other effects. The protracted and escalating dispute, now expanded to currency issues, will negatively impact the global economy, including the EU’s.

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Servant of the People Party Wins Absolute Majority in Ukrainian Parliament

Servant of the People Party Wins Absolute Majority in Ukrainian Parliament

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; parliament; People Party; elections; majority;

Servant of the People, a party associated with President Volodymyr Zelensky, won early parliamentary elections in Ukraine with 43% of the votes in the proportional part and 129 out of 199 seats in single-mandate districts. The party is the first in modern Ukrainian history to gain an absolute majority in the Verkhovna Rada.

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Kim-Trump Meet in Panmunjom

Kim-Trump Meet in Panmunjom

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Kim Jong Un; meeting; foreign policy;

On 30 June, U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met for the third time, in a meeting notable for Trump walking into North Korea. The event was mainly an image-building opportunity for both leaders but they did agree to revive working-level negotiations on denuclearisation and sanctions. For North Korea, the meeting is another step in overcoming political isolation. For South Korea, whose president Moon Jae-in accompanied both leaders, it was a chance to regain significance as an intermediary in the U.S.-North Korea talks.

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G20 Osaka Summit Outcome Similar to Last Year’s Meeting in Buenos Aires

G20 Osaka Summit Outcome Similar to Last Year’s Meeting in Buenos Aires

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: G20; Osaka; Summit; economy; trade; USA; China;

In the conclusions of the G20 summit in Osaka on 28–29 June, the leaders warned of risks to economic growth and expressed support for free trade and reform of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). However, the most important event of the summit was the meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. They confirmed the resumption of trade negotiations, which could lead to the withdrawal of the tariffs and counter-tariffs imposed due to the ongoing trade conflict and greater opening of the Chinese market to U.S. companies.

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Xi Jinping’s Visit to North Korea

Xi Jinping’s Visit to North Korea

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; North Korea; Xi Jinping; Kim Jong Un; visit; foreign policy; trade; denuclearisation;

On 21–22 June, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited North Korea where he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It was the first visit of the Chinese president to North Korea in 14 years and the fifth summit of the leaders in 15 months. Xi and Kim used the meeting to put pressure on the U.S. to continue the talks with the North on denuclearisation and negotiate with China on trade.

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Tokayev Elected President of Kazakhstan

Tokayev Elected President of Kazakhstan

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kazakhstan; president; elections; Kassym-Jomart Tokayev;

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, as expected, won the presidential elections in Kazakhstan on 9 June with almost 71% of votes in the first round. His victory marks the culmination of the first stage of the succession of power after Nursultan Nazarbayev and ensures the continuation of the country’s domestic and foreign policy. However, the scale of protests during the elections is a challenge for the country’s stability.

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End of The INF Treaty

Koniec traktatu INF

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear weapons; security; treaty; foreign policy;

Stany Zjednoczone wystąpiły 2 sierpnia br. z Traktatu o całkowitej likwidacji pocisków rakietowych krótkiego i średniego zasięgu (INF) z 1987 r., wskazując na wieloletnie łamanie go przez Rosję. Administracja Donalda Trumpa chce rozwinąć technologię i wprowadzić do służby zakazane wcześniej wystrzeliwane z lądu pociski manewrujące i balistyczne o zasięgu 500–5500 km. Będzie dążyła do rozmieszczenia takich pocisków, wyposażonych wyłącznie w głowice konwencjonalne, w Azji, a być może także w Europie. Będzie to jednak zależało od dynamiki politycznej w USA i ustaleń z sojusznikami.

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Parliamentary elections in Denmark

Wybory parlamentarne w Danii

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Denmark; parliament; elections; 2019;

Wybory parlamentarne w Danii 5 czerwca br. wygrali socjaldemokraci stojący na czele nieformalnego „czerwonego bloku”, który zdobył nieznaczną większość. Oznacza to utratę władzy przez dotychczasową koalicję centroprawicową. Nowy rząd prawdopodobnie zwiększy zaangażowanie na rzecz państwa opiekuńczego, lecz niekoniecznie złagodzi dotychczasową politykę migracyjną.

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United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus in Exile Active in Its First Year

United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus in Exile Active in Its First Year

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; United Transitional Cabinet; Exile;

During its first year of activity, the Belarusian transitional cabinet formed in exile by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya consolidated its political position, worked on reform projects and sought support from other countries for Belarusian independence. The Belarusian authorities see this as a threat and have taken a number of steps to obstruct the actions of the interim government in the international arena. It is therefore necessary for Western countries to provide systemic support to the Tsikhanouskaya cabinet so that it can continue to function and prepare a comprehensive reform plan.

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Niger Was One Coup Too Many in the Sahel

Niger Was One Coup Too Many in the Sahel

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Niger; Sahel; Coup;

On 26 July, the military overthrew the democratically elected, pro-Western president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum. The regional ECOWAS bloc, followed by France, threatened military intervention. However, it turned out to be politically impossible due to the support that the junta had gained with anti-French slogans and widespread opposition in the countries that were to carry it out, especially Nigeria. Russia and jihadist groups active in the region have gained politically from the coup.

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