Series:PISM Bulletin

British Defence Strategy: Importance for NATO’s Eastern Flank

British Defence Strategy: Importance for NATO’s Eastern Flank

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; British Defence Strategy; Eastern Flank;

The United Kingdom has announced that it will strengthen its ability to shape global security and respond to threats from Russia. It intends to thoroughly modernise its military, although it also will permanently reduce its land forces. These changes may, in the long run, allow Britain to gain a force more effective on the modern battlefield, but before that happens, it may weaken British combat capabilities. Poland should look for new opportunities for cooperation with the UK to strengthen the common potential. A mutually beneficial form of cooperation could be Poland’s joining the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

A Vision of the Future: The U.S. Intelligence Report “Global Trends 2040”

A Vision of the Future: The U.S. Intelligence Report “Global Trends 2040”

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Intelligence Report; Global Trends 2040; security; foreign policy;

In April 2021, the U.S. intelligence community published the extensive report “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”. It analyses the main demographic, political, and strategic trends that will likely shape the world for the next two decades. The report will be intensively used by the Biden administration in the preparation of the new U.S. National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, as well as in new military doctrines. The “Global Trends” document reflects the main tendencies in American strategic thinking, such as the growing “Sinocentrism” and traditional U.S. attachment to transatlantic relations.

U.S. Economic Challenges for the Biden Administration

U.S. Economic Challenges for the Biden Administration

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Biden; economic policy; challenges; foreign policy; COVID-19;

The U.S. economy is emerging from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To maintain growth and at the same time achieve climate and technology goals, the Biden administration is pushing large socio-economic programmes. To pass them in Congress, the administration will be forced to reach compromises with factions within the Democratic Party. Biden also will need some Republican support. In foreign policy, these programmes aim to strengthen the U.S. position in its rivalry with China, something that also opens greater possibilities for closer cooperation with the EU.

Prospects for the Global Development of Small Modular Reactors

Prospects for the Global Development of Small Modular Reactors

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global development; SMR; energy; nuclear reactors; EU; energy policy;

The development of small modular reactors (SMR) creates the opportunity to use nuclear energy without extensive time- and money-consuming investments in large-scale nuclear power plants. Therefore, both exporters of nuclear technology and potential importers, as well as private investors are interested in the development of this market. The lower costs and many different applications might mean that SMR will play an important role in decarbonising economies. The spread of the technology will depend on, among others, the successful commercial implementation of the first SMR models, certification on European markets, as well as the EU’s policy toward nuclear energy.

Online Warfare: Russian Policy on International Information Security

Online Warfare: Russian Policy on International Information Security

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; policy; international information security; online warfare;

Russia in April this year updated its policy on international information security (IIS). Compared to the previous version of the document from 2013, Russia points to the possibility of an interstate conflict as a result of activities in cyberspace. Russia also promotes the concept of “sovereign internet” and aims to increase its influence in the field of global regulations concerning the development of the network. The publication of the document confirms the priority for information security in the national security strategy and in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation.

FDP Well-Positioned Ahead of the Bundestag Elections

FDP Well-Positioned Ahead of the Bundestag Elections

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: FDP; Germany; Bundestag; elections; COVID-19;

The elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate as well as the results of public opinion polls indicate that the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has a chance to increase its representation in the Bundestag after the elections in 2021. This is favoured by internal tensions within the CDU/CSU and the FDP’s image as a party guarding the liberal economy and civil liberties during the COVID-19 pandemic. The growing support for the FDP increases its chances of becoming a leading opposition party, and even a potential coalition partner in the new federal government.

The Significance of the Energy Charter Treaty and Perspective for Reform

The Significance of the Energy Charter Treaty and Perspective for Reform

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Energy charter; energy policy; reform perspective; EU;

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) allows energy companies to protect their foreign investments in fossil fuels, among others. It is controversial, though, because the treaty makes it difficult for its parties to implement ambitious climate policy and decarbonise their economies. The current debate on reforming the ECT creates an opportunity to amend the treaty to better fit the EU’s - and Poland’s - needs. However, if the negotiations are delayed further, it would be advisable to abandon the treaty.

Not only Donbas: Ukraine in German Foreign Policy

Not only Donbas: Ukraine in German Foreign Policy

Author(s): Adam S. Czartoryski,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donbas; Ukraine; Germany; foreign policy; energy; conflict;

Since 2014, the priority of Germany’s policy towards Ukraine has remained to stabilise the situation in its eastern regions. At the same time, Ukraine’s importance has gone beyond the conflict in the Donbas: it is increasingly becoming an element of the realisation of Germany’s European and global interests and a target of German investments, especially in the energy sector. This evolution will be favoured by a change of the ruling coalition in Germany, which may occur after the Bundestag elections.

Strengthening the EU’s Role in Cybersecurity

Strengthening the EU’s Role in Cybersecurity

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

The ongoing pandemic has increased the use of digital technologies and intensified the threats they pose. Therefore, the EU faces the need to strengthen its ability to detect and respond to hostile cyber activities. New initiatives should, above all, improve the cooperation of EU institutions with Member States and private entities. However, their effectiveness will be limited by low and dispersed financing.

The Future of French Nuclear Energy

The Future of French Nuclear Energy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nuclear energy; France; policy; future; EPR;

Although nuclear energy is one of the leading branches of French industry, its development prospects remain unclear. This is due to divergences in opinion about the shape of the French energy sector after the energy transition, technical problems of the European Pressurised Reactor (EPR), and difficulties in adjusting to EU competition rules. Failure to address these issues could adversely affect the credibility of France’s offer for exports of civil nuclear technology.

Bulgaria Prepares for New Elections

Bulgaria Prepares for New Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; elections; National Assembly; GERB;

On 12 May, President Rumen Radev dissolved the National Assembly, elected a month earlier, and scheduled new elections for 11 July. Anti-establishment parties may do even better then the last elections in April when their success interrupted a decade of rule by the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. GERB’s credibility continues to decline as a result of disclosed abuses and U.S. sanctions on oligarchs associated with it. If the new parties form a stable coalition, they may undertake reforms to bring Bulgaria closer to membership in the Schengen area, which issupported by Poland.

EU Proposes Artificial Intelligence Regulation

EU Proposes Artificial Intelligence Regulation

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU: AI; regulation;

The proposed regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) on the EU market is primarily intended to protect fundamental rights and values. As the first regulation of this type in the world, it may set the standard. However, the new requirements in practice might hinder the access of foreign entities to the internal market and reduce the competitiveness of EU businesses.

United Opposition: The “Government of Change” Against Netanyahu

United Opposition: The “Government of Change” Against Netanyahu

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Netanyahu; government; opposition; security policy; foreign policy;

On 13 June, a coalition formed of eight opposition parties won a vote of confidence in the Knesset. This marks the loss of power by Benjamin Netanyahu, who was replaced as prime minister by Naftali Bennett. The new cabinet has a slim parliamentary majority and includes parties with a very diverse ideological profile, which will reduce its effectiveness and stability. In matters of security, the government will maintain the current policies, and in foreign affairs it will pursue an improvement in relations with the Biden administration and the EU.

The Central Five: Wrapping Up the Forum’s First Year

The Central Five: Wrapping Up the Forum’s First Year

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Five; Forum; first year; C5; V4;

The cooperation platform Central Five (C5), involving the ministers of foreign affairs of Austria, Czechia, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Hungary, launched in June 2020, was intended to improve coordination related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual functioning of the Central Five shows, however, that the cooperation has been extended to new topics and partners in the “C5+” formula. It is in Poland’s interest that the issues discussed within the Central Five become the subject of closer consultations in the Visegrad Group, and that Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary are not involved in the work of the C5 at the V4’s expense.

Prospects for V4-Japan Cooperation

Prospects for V4-Japan Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: V4; Visegrad; Japan; cooperation; foreign policy;

Japan is updating and strengthening the political dimension of its cooperation with the countries of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It was prompted by China’s growing involvement in the Balkans and the EU’s preparation of its Indo-Pacific strategy. In both cases, Japan counts on the support of the V4, which would benefit from tightening multidimensional cooperation with an Asian partner that does not raise objections in the EU. However, the V4 members’ inconsistent approaches to China may undermine the coordination of the political dialogue between Japan and the Visegrad states, although it is unlikely to have a negative impact on economic cooperation.

Lithuania’s Plans to Strengthen Security Policy

Lithuania’s Plans to Strengthen Security Policy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; security; policy; plans; defence policy;

The Lithuanian government has announced increased security activities related to its desire to improve the country’s defence capabilities and various responses to new conditions, which include the change of U.S. president, EU defence policy, and Russia’s actions against Belarus and Ukraine. The intensification of Lithuania’s security efforts has the potential to strengthen the bilateral cooperation with Poland.

Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; policy; Turkey; foreign policy; Russia; relations;

The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey - after the EU and the U.S. - one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.

Belarus and Russia: Accelerated integration

Belarus and Russia: Accelerated integration

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Russia; foreign policy; security; presidential elections;

Over the past few months, Belarus and Russia have stepped up talks on the conditions for further integration. Russia wants to take advantage of Belarus’ international isolation after the rigging of last year’s presidential elections as that country is increasingly dependent on it. The deepening integration of the countries will not only reduce Belarus’ sovereignty, but will have consequences for regional security.

Schengen After the Crises: New Strategy and Challenges

Schengen After the Crises: New Strategy and Challenges

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Schengen; Crises; EC; migration policy; COVID-19;

After the shocks caused by the migration-management crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Commission (EC) initiated reforms in Schengen. The new strategy aims at rebuilding trust between states and gradually lifting border restrictions. This process will be hampered by the continued public health threat, as well as the deadlock in the discussion on reform of migration policy, in particular the asylum system.

Defender Europe 21: Importance of the Military Exercises for Defence and Deterrence in Europe

Defender Europe 21: Importance of the Military Exercises for Defence and Deterrence in Europe

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; security; policy; military policy; Defender Europe 21;

During the Defender Europe 21 exercises, U.S. troops tested a new concept of multi-domain operations, which is to provide them with an operational advantage over Russia and China. Continuing exercises with NATO allies is one of the main ways of developing defence and deterrence capabilities in Europe in the long term. Given the likely cuts in U.S. defence spending, NATO should increase its common military budget and allocate some funds to regular, large-scale exercises with significant U.S. involvement.