Series:PISM Bulletin

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Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; politics; political scene; parliamentary elections; change;

For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.

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The Impact of Brexit on Surrender Cooperation between the EU and the United Kingdom

The Impact of Brexit on Surrender Cooperation between the EU and the United Kingdom

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; Brexit; EU; surrender cooperation; impact; criminal law; extradition;

By negotiating the post-Brexit trade and cooperation agreement (TCA), the EU and the United Kingdom (UK) sought to maintain the effectiveness of cooperation in surrendering persons to criminal proceedings. However, the rules contained in the TCA are a manifestation of the weakening of trust between the participating states. While the procedures will remain swift, simplified extradition will be less frequent and rely on the goodwill of the states to a larger extent.

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Conference on the Future of Europe: Delayed Start of the New Edition

Conference on the Future of Europe: Delayed Start of the New Edition

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; future; conference; governments;

With a one-year delay caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the next edition of the Conference on the Future of Europe is about to start. The first stage of the discussion on reforms of the European Union in 2017-2019 did not bring any solutions to many issues. Nevertheless, the EU institutions count on a renewal of the process. However, the timing is not favourable - the persistent health crisis will make the debate difficult and the need to manage it will discourage Member State governments from taking decisions on deep structural reforms.

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Turkey: The European Union’s Adversarial Partner

Turkey: The European Union’s Adversarial Partner

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; EU; foreign policy; relations; migrations; economy;

The EU intends to implement a new model of relations with Turkey based on phased, proportional, and reversible engagement. The Union’s plans are a consequence of a dilemma: although Turkey often acts like an adversary, EU members want to maintain close relations with it due to the convergence of interests in areas such as migration and the economy. The Union’s new approach creates the opportunity to strengthen its influence on Turkey. Yet, different expectations about the future shape of relations will keep EU-Turkey relations tense.

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Towards a Global Pandemic Treaty

Towards a Global Pandemic Treaty

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global pandemic; COVID-19; Treaty; WHO;

The EU, the World Health Organisation (WHO), and a group of countries are calling for a treaty to create an effective system to prevent future pandemics. The initiative is ambitious, but its broad scope may make it difficult for the proposal to be universally accepted. The priorities of the countries negotiating such a treaty should be to improve the effectiveness of the exchange and verification of information on public health threats and the monitoring and enforcement of compliance with adopted regulations. Given the global nature of challenges such as COVID-19, it is in Poland’s interest to join the debate on new regulations.

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Ukraine’s New Military Security Strategy

Ukraine’s New Military Security Strategy

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; military; security; strategy; Donbas; Russia;

Ukraine’s new Military Security Strategy, adopted in March 2021, is based on the concept of comprehensive security. The potential for further Russian incursions is to be prevented by raising the costs of aggression through, among other things, the development of territorial defence forces, the modernisation of armaments, and the use of asymmetric defensive actions. The strategy sets achievable goals and its implementation will have a positive impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a massive Russian invasion. However, it will not prevent periodic escalations along the demarcation line in Donbas.

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“Global Partnership for a New Era”: Perspectives on Japan-U.S. Relations

“Global Partnership for a New Era”: Perspectives on Japan-U.S. Relations

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Japan; relations; foreign policy; China; economy; climate;

Japan plays a key role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which is confirmed by Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide’s visit to Washington in April. His government is ready to deepen cooperation with the U.S. on security issues, but while maintaining a stable relationship with China. Cooperation in the areas of the economy, technology, and climate will be of key importance to the global partnership between Japan and the U.S. This creates opportunities for deepening cooperation with Japan by the EU, including Poland, especially in the implementation of climate goals.

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Czechia on the Biden Administration

Czechia on the Biden Administration

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; USA; Biden; administration; Andrej Babiš; security;

The Czech government of Andrej Babiš, after numerous gestures towards the previous U.S. administration, expected worsening of relations with the administration of President Joe Biden. However, the April crisis in Czech-Russian relations contributed to the approximation of the positions of the U.S. and Czech governments. Moreover, Babiš’s cabinet aims to expand transatlantic cooperation in the field of cybersecurity, also thanks to the activities of the EU and the Visegrad Group.

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Israel Escalates Actions Towards Iran

Israel Escalates Actions Towards Iran

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Iran; nuclear programme; USA: Biden; foreign policy; security;

Since last year, Israel has increased its operations against Iran’s nuclear programme. The actions corresponded to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. Currently, the Israeli actions are an attempt to put pressure on the negotiations launched by the U.S. and Iran to restore the nuclear agreement. Israel opposes those talks, but further escalation will be limited by the stance of the Biden administration.

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Prospects for EU-UK Security Cooperation

Prospects for EU-UK Security Cooperation

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; UK; security; cooperation; prospects;

Brexit forced a re-definition of the rules under which EU-UK cooperation in the field of security should take place. However, a divergence of strategic interests may turn out to be apparent in the face of common challenges. The effectiveness of cooperation with the UK in the coming years will depend on the coherence of the EU position regarding the directions of involvement in foreign, security, and defence policy. They are to be determined by the ongoing work on the Strategic Compass.

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Prospects for the Reconstruction of Lebanon

Prospects for the Reconstruction of Lebanon

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lebanon; government; proposal; politics;

At the end of March, Lebanese President Michel Aoun rejected a proposal by designated Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri regarding the composition of the new government. The breakdown of the negotiations shows that despite the deepening socio-economic crisis, political groups are unable to develop a common vision for the reconstruction of the state. The EU, UN, and the World Bank engaged in initiatives aiming to improve Lebanon’s situation. However, the political deadlock threatens the implementation of their cocreated “3RF” reform plan.

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Russian demonstration of force on the border with Ukraine and in the occupied Crimea

Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Ukraine; Crimea; Russia; border; force demonstration; security; military;

Organizując w kwietniu br. ćwiczenia wojskowe i sygnalizując gotowość zaatakowania Ukrainy, Rosja chciała wymusić na niej powrót do rozmów w ramach procesu normandzkiego, a jednocześnie sprawdzić reakcję państw zachodnich, zwłaszcza USA. W wymiarze militarnym był to ważny element testu stanu gotowości bojowej rosyjskich sił zbrojnych na zachodnim kierunku strategicznym, czego kolejną odsłoną będą wrześniowe ćwiczenia „Zachód”. Mimo wycofania większości rosyjskich jednostek do miejsc stałej dyslokacji w regionie utrzyma się napięta sytuacja.

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Sudan: Cooperation with the U.S. at Russia’s Expense

Sudan: Cooperation with the U.S. at Russia’s Expense

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sudan; Russia; cooperation; USA; NATO: security;

In April, the Sudanese authorities ordered the suspension of the construction of a Russian naval logistics centre on the country’s Red Sea coast. The project was a cause for concern in the U.S., the EU, Saudi Arabia, and NATO. The Sudanese did not want to compromise American support for the country’s economic stabilisation, the scale of which gave the United States the advantage in its rivalry with Russia. The case also highlighted the growing regional importance of Sudan as it emerges from isolation.

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Prospects For Russia’s Policy Towards Afghanistan

Prospects For Russia’s Policy Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; policy; Afghanistan; prospects; USA; NATO;

Taking advantage of the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, Russia intends to strengthen its influence in that country by increasing contacts with the Afghan government and the Taliban. The aim is to become a key mediator in the peace process, which will enable it to influence the participants, increase control over the situation in Afghanistan, and use it in relations with the countries of the region. Russia’s policy may make the stabilisation of Afghanistan more difficult and undermine the effects of the efforts made by NATO countries during the stabilisation mission.

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Challenges to the Intensification of EU Cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean

Challenges to the Intensification of EU Cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Latin America; Caribbean; foreign policy; COVID-19; economic policy;

At the end of 2020, the EU undertook to reinvigorate relations with the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC). It intends to strengthen economic ties and work with the region to achieve sustainable development goals, including climate protection, and on the digital transformation, among others. The success of these aims depends on productive cooperation in combating the COVID-19 pandemic and tackling its socio-economic effects. Challenges include differences in approach to the Venezuela crisis and the need for the EU to compete for influence in LAC with China, in particular.

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The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Palestinian authority; elections; cancellation; Mahmoud Abbas; Hamas; Israel;

The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.

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The Difficult Beginnings of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office

The Difficult Beginnings of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Public; Prosecutor Office; Beginnings; EPPO;

The smooth functioning of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is important to fill the gap in the protection of EU finances and to strengthen cooperation between national prosecutors’ offices. Its activities will enable the unprecedented involvement of the EU in domestic proceedings related to violations of the EU budget, including by bringing such violations and indictments before the courts of the Member States. However, the effectiveness of the EPPO will depend on the introduction of appropriate regulations and active cooperation with its officers at the national level. Along with only moderate enthusiasm of many Member States, the EPPO will from the outset face the difficult task of proving the added value of guiding its officials to national systems.

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EU Sanctions for Disinformation Campaigns: Prospects and Limits

EU Sanctions for Disinformation Campaigns: Prospects and Limits

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; sanctions; disinformation campaigns; prospects; limits; Russia; China;

The EU has faced a growing number of foreign disinformation operations, mainly instigated by Russia and China. The European Commission (EC) is considering a sanctions system in response to such attacks. Its would, however, be limited by technical difficulties in detecting the sources of such operations and Member States’ divergent views as to the scale of retaliation. From Poland’s perspective as a country supportive of using sanctions in EU external relations, such a solution would strengthen the EU’s response to Russian and Chinese hostile actions.

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France-Rwanda Reconciliation Follows Genocide Report

France-Rwanda Reconciliation Follows Genocide Report

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Rwanda; Genocide; report; Emmanuel Macron;

In March, a commission of historians commissioned by President Emmanuel Macron to study France’s role before and during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 published the results of their research. Its conclusions were critical of France and well-received in Rwanda. That paved the way for the first visit to Rwanda in a decade by the French leader. The end of more than 25 years of mutual hostility will bring political benefits to both sides. The historians’ report contributes to the discussion about the future of humanitarian interventions.

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Lessons from the Pandemic: Update of the EU Industrial Strategy

Lessons from the Pandemic: Update of the EU Industrial Strategy

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; pandemic; COVID-19; industrial strategy;

The update of the EU industrial strategy confirms the intention strongly accented in its original version to strengthen the Community’s position in the global economic competition. At the same time, the EU remains an advocate of openness and free trade. However, it wants to modify the rules, favouring equal competition and sustainable development. Participation in existing and planned EU projects can facilitate the technological modernisation of Polish enterprises, necessary for achieving the objectives of the green and digital transformations.

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