Series:PISM Bulletin

Preparations of the Russian authorities for the parliamentary elections

Przygotowania władz Rosji do wyborów parlamentarnych

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russians; parliamentary elections; authorities;

Rosyjskie władze przygotowują się do wrześniowych wyborów do Dumy Państwowej, spodziewając się trwałego wzrostu niezadowolenia społecznego. By utrzymać kontrolę nad kampanią i procesem wyborczym, inicjują powstanie koncesjonowanych partii opozycyjnych. Rozbudowują także instrumenty represji wobec krytyków władz, co stanie się tendencją systemu rosyjskiego przed wyborami prezydenckimi w 2024 r.

The European Green Deal: On the Way to EU Climate Neutrality

The European Green Deal: On the Way to EU Climate Neutrality

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: green; environment; EU; climate neutrality;

The announcement of the European Green Deal (EGD) by the head of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, came just before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the global crisis not only affected the Commission’s plans but gave additional impetus to the European climate transformation. In 2021, the EC is expected to move from strategic thinking on the EGD to ambitious action. Success will depend on the Commission’s capacity to reconcile the interests of all Member States, including those for whom the implementation of the EGD constitutes a challenge in the short term.

The EU’s Digital Decade: Goals and Challenges

The EU’s Digital Decade: Goals and Challenges

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; digital decade; economy; digitization; economic policy;

The “2030 Digital Compass” sets the goals of the broadly understood digitisation of the EU economy. Their implementation is to increase the technological potential of the Union and prepare citizens and companies for socio-economic changes. Financial resources for it will come from the long-term budget negotiated last year and from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The challenge will be effective use of the EU funds and achieving planned goals across the Union.

The Phantom of the Opposition: The German Christian Democrats before the Federal Elections

The Phantom of the Opposition: The German Christian Democrats before the Federal Elections

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Christian democrats; politics; federal elections; opposition;

The defeat of the CDU in the elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate and the party’s decline in ratings at the federal level indicate that the Christian Democrats may lose in the upcoming Bundestag elections, possibly even with the worst result in its history. The weakening of the party strengthens the Greens as a potential coalition partner in the new federal government and increases the chances of a cabinet without the CDU/CSU.

The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations

The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Belarus; relations; foreign policy; human rights;

The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.

The EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean: Towards a Digital and Green Economy

The EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean: Towards a Digital and Green Economy

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Mediterranean; Digital economy; Green Economy;

The revision of EU policy towards its southern neighbourhood focuses on supporting green and digital transformations in order to boost the economic development of this region. However, the proposed solutions may bring limited results due to structural problems and the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. To increase the effectiveness of this policy, the EU can strengthen local actors. Poland can promote the good practices of the Eastern Partnership in this regard.

Trying the Fund: Germany’s Problems with the Ratification of the Decision on EU Own Resources

Trying the Fund: Germany’s Problems with the Ratification of the Decision on EU Own Resources

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Germany; economy; crisis; decision ratification;

Since the Federal Constitutional Court suspended the ratification of the decision to increase the EU’s own resources, the launch of the reconstruction fund could be delayed. Facing the risk of prolonging the pandemic-induced economic crisis, Germany and the EU must consider additional scenarios, from changing the German constitution, financing expenses from national bonds, or even transferring the recovery programme to the intergovernmental level.

CEPA as a Model of Cooperation: The Example of EU-Armenia Relations

CEPA as a Model of Cooperation: The Example of EU-Armenia Relations

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: CEPA; EU; Armenia; relations; cooperation; economy; foreign policy;

The Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which entered into force on 1 March 2021, is the basis of the bilateral relations between the EU and Armenia in the framework of the Eastern Partnership (EaP). Since Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), CEPA differs from the typical Association Agreements (AA) concluded by the EU with EaP countries Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova in 2014. Although CEPA has been designed to allow for the simultaneous integration of a partner within the EAEU and cooperation with the EU, it is unlikely to be used by other members of the former organisation, such as Belarus.

The Prospect of Tighter Cooperation: Slovakia on the New U.S. Administration

The Prospect of Tighter Cooperation: Slovakia on the New U.S. Administration

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; USA; administration; Tighter Cooperation; foreign policy; Russia; China;

While U.S.-Slovakia relations strengthened during the presidency of Donald Trump, the change of government in the United States is conducive to expanding bilateral cooperation, in part because of a similar view by the new authorities in both countries on the role of values in international relations. The Slovak government wants to participate in the traditional pillar of joint actions, defence - , along with innovation and fighting corruption. However, bilateral relations still will be influenced by Slovak policy towards Russia and China.

Ukraine’s Economic Strategy to 2030

Ukraine’s Economic Strategy to 2030

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s new long-term economic strategy sets an ambitious, yet probably unrealistic goal of doubling the country’s GDP by the end of the decade. It will require systemic reforms that go beyond economic issues and radically change the political system, characterised by a network of corrupt links between the worlds of politics and business. The current Ukrainian authorities lack the political will to pursue such far-reaching changes.

Taxation of Digital Content: the Case of Facebook in Australia

Taxation of Digital Content: the Case of Facebook in Australia

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Australia; facebook; digital content; tax;

Under the influence of a strong lobby of traditional media - television and press - the Australian government attempted to adopt what it called a “link tax”, which is a fee on external content available through digital platforms. Although Facebook responded with a kind of extortion - blocking links to certain sites for users in Australia - the law on the tax was passed on 24 February, albeit in a softer version. The law resulted from a split in the negotiating front of the main platforms, Google and Facebook, numerous lawsuits and scandals involving them, as well as the public’s increasingly unfavourable sentiment towards the tech giants. The Australian example may serve as a catalyst for regulations around the world on the activities of large technology companies (i.e., Big Tech), not only in the area of media.

Prospects for Russia’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Prospects for Russia’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; South Caucasus; policy; foreign policy; security;

The priority of Russia’s policy towards the Caucasus is to maintain influence on the countries of the region, primarily through military instruments. Russia is striving to establish control over Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) using methods similar to the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which will enable the Russian peacekeepers to remain in the NK after 2025. The EU and NATO’s priority in the Caucasus should be to counter Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey, which may limit the EU’s instruments in the region and adversely affect NATO cohesion.

Russia’s Flailing EU Policy

Russia’s Flailing EU Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; policy; Russia; foreign policy; Alexei Navalny;

The poisoning and subsequent arrest and conviction of oppositionist Alexei Navalny worsened the already tense Russia-EU relations. Although the EU remains Russia’s most important trading partner, the EU’s support for democratic values is a challenge for the ruling power elite in Russia. As a consequence of the international criticism of Russia by Western countries and the internal protests related to Navalny and other issues, relations between Russia and the EU will coarsen.

A Lack of Optimism: Results of the Latest Session of the Chinese Parliament

A Lack of Optimism: Results of the Latest Session of the Chinese Parliament

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: foreign policy; China; EU; USA; Chinese parliament;

The most important element of the parliamentary session that ended on 11 March was the adoption of China’s development plans - a five-year plan and a long-term one until 2035. These documents emphasise China’s aim to increase economic self-sufficiency, as well as acknowledge the challenges related to demographics and unemployment. Parliament approved an amendment of the electoral law in Hong Kong and an increase in the budget of the armed forces. The session confirmed China’s readiness to continue the rivalry with the U.S. and presented the EU as a potential Chinese partner.

Walking the Line: France’s Dilemma in Relations with China

Walking the Line: France’s Dilemma in Relations with China

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; China; foreign policy; dilemma; economic policy;

President Emmanuel Macron believes that France’s importance in global politics depends on maintaining correct relations with all major states, including China. This concept includes support for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) and a reluctance to side with the U.S. in its disputes with China. The Chinese authorities see the French ambitions as an opportunity to loosen transatlantic ties and increase Chinese influence in the EU. Their increasing interference in France’s internal affairs, however, may lead Macron to adopt a more resolute stance.

Socio-Political Situation of the Crimean Tatars

Socio-Political Situation of the Crimean Tatars

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Crimea; Tatars; socio-political situation; russification; foreign policy;

Since the annexation of Crimea by Russia, a systemic policy of discrimination against its indigenous population - the Crimean Tatars - has been carried out on the territory of the peninsula. This nation, which for historical reasons shows mostly anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian attitudes, is treated by Russia as an obstacle in consolidating its power in Crimea. The international community has limited possibilities to put pressure on Russia to end this practice. However, any actions supporting the Tatars may slow down the process of russification of the peninsula and promote restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine

India’s Climate Policy: From Lagging Behind to Leading the Way

India’s Climate Policy: From Lagging Behind to Leading the Way

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; climate; policy; CO2;

Mounting a globally effective fight against climate change requires the participation of India, the fourth largest CO2 emitter in the world. Its position in climate negotiations has evolved from a state blocking ambitious solutions to a leader in combating climate change. More ambitious climate action, including a zero-net emissions target, requires international support and better access to capital and technology for the green and just transition. This is set to be a key area of the EU-India partnership. Poland can enhance cooperation in this field and join the Indian-led International Solar Alliance.

Syria: The End of Isolation? Arab States Seek to Normalise Relations

Syria: The End of Isolation? Arab States Seek to Normalise Relations

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arab States; Syria; relations; normalisation; foreign policy; Assad regime;

In February, the Arab League (AL) re-opened the offices of one of its agencies in Syria, thus resuming activity in that country for the first time since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Most Arab states are now seeking to normalise relations with the Assad regime and criticise sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU against Syria, putting pressure on them to lift the restrictions. This position is conducive to the efforts of some EU countries, in particular Italy, which hosts a large number of Syrian refugees, to improve relations with Assad. This may contribute to a lack of consensus on EU policy towards Syria.

Developments in U.S. Defence Spending: Implications for NATO

Developments in U.S. Defence Spending: Implications for NATO

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: defence; spending; economic policy; military policy; NATO;

After a few years of increases, U.S. defence spending is likely to stagnate. At the same time, the needs related to the U.S. priority of deterring China will grow. The effect will be that the U.S. will continue to call for a greater contribution of NATO members to their own defence, even given the softening of transatlantic tensions and positive signals regarding the U.S. military presence in Europe.

The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Xinjiang; Uyghurs; repression; China; genocide; policy; economic policy; sanctions;

The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.