Series:PISM Bulletin

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Unifying Protest Voters: Marine Le Pen and National Rally’s Chances in France’s 2022 Elections

Unifying Protest Voters: Marine Le Pen and National Rally’s Chances in France’s 2022 Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Marine Le Pen; France; 2022; elections; protest voters;

Although Marine Le Pen took advantage of the weakness of moderate conservative politicians to become the strongest voice on the right, the path to participation in governing has so far been blocked by the isolation of National Rally (RN) by other parties. A new opportunity for Le Pen may be the pandemic related crises, disenchantment with elites, and the expansion of the protest vote. In the long run, the far right may also be reinforced by governing camp’s identity policies, which adopt some of RN’s talking points and slogans, posing a threat to EU cohesion and Polish foreign policy.

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The Missile Threat from North Korea and the U.S. Homeland Defence

The Missile Threat from North Korea and the U.S. Homeland Defence

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: North Korea; USA; defence; missile threat;

Since 2012, North Korea has been progressing with different types of long-range ballistic missiles and their successful tests of them are a determinant in the U.S. missile defence plans for the continental United States, Hawaii, and overseas territories. One of most important recommended solutions by the Pentagon to these growing threats is the concept of a “layered” approach to homeland missile defence. The Joe Biden administration is expected to comprehensively review the concept and any actions would have a distinct effect on U.S. deterrence of North Korea and bilateral relations with China and Russia. It also will be important also for American allies in Europe.

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Nord Stream 2 and the Biden Presidency

Nord Stream 2 and the Biden Presidency

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Biden; energy; Nord Stream 2;

The German government hopes that the Biden administration will weaken the sanctions against Nord Stream 2 (NS2). German diplomacy is pushing to win U.S. acceptance of NS2’s completion and launch. Biden is faced with a dilemma: while he is critical of the pipeline, he also seeks closer relations with American allies, including Germany. Some kind of concessions cannot be completely ruled out but they will be difficult, not least because of the bipartisan opposition to NS2 in Congress.

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Artemis Accords: Towards New Rules for the Exploitation of Space

Artemis Accords: Towards New Rules for the Exploitation of Space

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Artemis Acords; space; use; space policy; foreign policy; China; Russia; NASA;

The Artemis Accords proposed by the U.S. are intended to develop new rules for the peaceful use of space, especially in terms of the extraction of mineral resources. However, the shape of some of the solutions will only be definitively established in practice. The degree of international acceptance will determine the success of the agreement, but is uncertain because of the reluctance of China and Russia to criticise the initiative as a unilateral imposition of standards by the U.S. For Poland, which is involved in NASA programmes and interested in closer bilateral cooperation with the space agency, joining the agreement may prove beneficial.

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The Importance of COVID-19 Vaccines in Chinese Foreign Policy

The Importance of COVID-19 Vaccines in Chinese Foreign Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccine; China; foreign policy;

Shipments of Chinese vaccines abroad are to demonstrate China’s effectiveness in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthen its political influence around the world. The country also wants to increase the credibility of its biotechnology companies on the global market. The implementation of these plans may be hampered by the lack of reliable studies on the Chinese vaccines and the demand for them in China itself. To fight the pandemic and counter China’s influence, the EU may make some of its vaccines available to developing countries through COVAX, in cooperation with the U.S. when it joins the initiative.

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Stakes as High as Drones Fly: SPD ahead of the Bundestag Elections

Stakes as High as Drones Fly: SPD ahead of the Bundestag Elections

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; elections; SPD; programme;

The manifestation of a shift in the German party SPD’s programme to the left is sharpening its position in the debate on security policy and proposals ahead of the Bundestag elections. The change in tack is to help the Social Democrats rebuild their image as the leading party on the German left and seize Green voters less satisfied with their party’s shift to the centre. This year’s state and federal elections will be a test of this strategy: in the event of weaker results, SPD may face an internal crisis.

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Landmark ICC Decision on Jurisdiction in the Palestinian Territories

Landmark ICC Decision on Jurisdiction in the Palestinian Territories

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: ICC; criminal court; criminal law; Palestinian territories;

On 5 February, the International Criminal Court (ICC) ruled that Palestine is a state within the meaning of its statute. As a consequence, the court has jurisdiction over Palestinian territory, comprised of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. The decision allows ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda to investigate possible crimes committed within these territories on 3 March. The decision is a political success for the Palestinian Authority. Israel strongly opposes it and will conduct diplomatic activities against the ICC, attempting to involve its foreign partners in them.

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ECB to the Rescue, Again: Ideas on Debt Relief in the Euro Area

ECB to the Rescue, Again: Ideas on Debt Relief in the Euro Area

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: ECB; banking; pandemic; Euro area; COVID-19;

The pandemic has exacerbated the dispute over public debt in the euro area. The supporters of restructuring propose to redeem or extend the maturity of the bonds purchased by the European Central Bank (ECB) in recent years. Opponents of this idea point to legal problems and economic threats. This is another edition - after negotiations on the reconstruction fund - of the discussion on the future of the monetary union and the limits of financial solidarity between the Member States.

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Romania’s Relations with Ukraine: Cooperation Despite an Impasse

Romania’s Relations with Ukraine: Cooperation Despite an Impasse

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania; Ukraine; cooperation; defense; energy;

Since 2017, there has been an impasse in Romanian-Ukrainian relations caused by a bill limiting the language rights of national minorities in Ukraine, including Romanians. However, due to the fear of Russia’s aggressive policy in the Black Sea basin and despite negligible political contacts, the countries are developing defence and energy cooperation. Poland’s interest is in strengthening relations between Romania and Ukraine because it would have a positive impact on regional cooperation and the development of the Eastern Partnership.

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Main Assumptions of the New U.S. Administration’s National Security and Foreign Policies

Main Assumptions of the New U.S. Administration’s National Security and Foreign Policies

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; security; national security; foreign policy;

On 3 March, the White House published the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG). It presents the main assumptions of administration policy ahead of the publication of the next U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS). The release of the INSSG was accompanied with a speech by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on foreign policy during Joe Biden’s presidency. The document and speech stress a clear departure from Donald Trump’s “America First” line, stressing protection of democratic values and signalling the most important strategic issues for U.S. allies, partners, and rivals.

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“Great Green Wall” in Africa Closer to Implementation

“Great Green Wall” in Africa Closer to Implementation

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Africa; Great Green Wall; Implementation; environment; policy; migration; economy;

During an environment summit in Paris on 11 January, donors pledged $14.3 billion for the creation in Africa by 2030 of a “Great Green Wall”. This 8,000 km strip of vegetation is to extend from Senegal to Djibouti to prevent desertification of areas south of the Sahara. The programme also may stimulate employment and sustainable economic development in a region suffering from security crises and mass emigration.

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Ukrainian Energiewende: German Engagement in Ukraine’s Energy Transition

Ukrainian Energiewende: German Engagement in Ukraine’s Energy Transition

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Germany; energy; transition; policy; nuclear energy; gas; Nord Stream 2;

Germany is the country most strongly involved in the transition of Ukraine’s energy sector. It is promoting its Energiewende concept in Ukraine, which involves a shift from coal and nuclear power to renewable energy sources (RES) in order to create a market for German companies in this sector. Germany may use its engagement in Ukraine in negotiations with the U.S. over lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Poland, together with the U.S., can promote an alternative, cheaper model of energy transition in Ukraine based on the simultaneous development of nuclear energy, natural gas, and RES.

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Late Start and a Slow Pace: Vaccinations Against COVID-19 in Ukraine

Late Start and a Slow Pace: Vaccinations Against COVID-19 in Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; Ukraine; vaccination; pace;

Ukraine’s problems with obtaining vaccines have made it one of the last countries in Central and Eastern Europe to start vaccinating its citizens. Delays in deliveries and logistical problems will make this process slower than in most European countries. As a result, Ukraine will have one of the lowest vaccination rates in Europe for a long time. This will force the Ukrainian authorities to maintain economic restrictions for longer than in other countries in the region, which may result in a decrease in support for President Volodymyr Zelensky and the ruling party in the coming months.

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India’s Vaccine Diplomacy: Fighting the Pandemic and for Status in the World

India’s Vaccine Diplomacy: Fighting the Pandemic and for Status in the World

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; COVID-19; vaccine; diplomacy; foreign policy;

India is becoming a leader in so-called vaccine diplomacy in the world. The extensive distribution of vaccines as grants and commercially to other countries, combined with the reduction of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, will increase India’s prestige and influence. The possible build-up of its production capacity will be important to the success of the global vaccination campaign, including the implementation of the COVAX programme. This should lead the EU to strengthen cooperation with India in the fight against the pandemic and other global health threats, which will become an important area of their strategic partnership.

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The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration

The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Yemen; conflict; USA; predictions;

At the beginning of February, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will end support for the coalition in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia and removed its foe, Ansar Allah, from the list of recognised Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO). Attempts to persuade the Arab coalition to withdraw from Yemen, together with the promise of maintaining the partnership with Saudi Arabia in other respects, may contribute to the signing of an effective ceasefire in Yemen and strengthen the peace process.

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Prospects for Turkey’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Prospects for Turkey’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; South Caucasus; foreign policy; prospects;

Turkey’s increased involvement in the South Caucasus strengthens its position vis-à-vis Russia and the EU, and increases the means of political pressure on Iran. It is also intended to help Turkey play the role of an economic bridge between Europe and Asia. To achieve these goals, Turkey uses military instruments and develops cooperation in the energy sector. Turkey has become a country without which stabilisation of the region is impossible, therefore the state of EU-Turkish relations will be one of the main factors determining the effectiveness of the EU’s policy in the Caucasus.

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“Trumpism”, the Long-Term Future of the Republican Party?

“Trumpism”, the Long-Term Future of the Republican Party?

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Trump; Trumpism; USA; republicans; future; foreign policy;

A lost presidency, the loss of the Senate majority, Trump’s attempts to challenge the election results, and his role in the Capitol riots on 6 January seem not to have dimmed the cooperation between the Republican Party and the former president. As a party, Republicans mostly rely on Trump and the pillars of his policy - “Trumpism”. Trump will strive to cement his position as the obvious candidate in the 2024 primaries, which may make Trumpism not a temporary phenomenon but one with a long-lasting impact on the Republican agenda, including in U.S. foreign and security policy.

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Almost Best Friends: Austria’s Relations with Germany

Almost Best Friends: Austria’s Relations with Germany

Author(s): Adam S. Czartoryski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Austria; Germany; relations; foreign policy; economy;

No other neighbour is as closely connected to Austria as Germany. For years, bilateral relations have been based on deep economic connection and mutual understanding of interests. However, Austria under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is more and more often and more decisively able to express a different opinion from Germany on important issues in European politics.

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Challenges Related to Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility

Challenges Related to Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: recovery; resilience facility; implementation; challenges; EU; economic policy;

The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) constitutes the core of the Next Generation EU recovery fund. It is to provide a financial impulse for stimulating growth and at the same time become a catalyst for economic transformation. Should these objectives be achieved, it could pave the way for financing larger EU undertakings through common debt more often. Implementation of the instrument will, however, be complicated by divergences between Member States concerning the adequate balance between fiscal support of the economy and reforms oriented at reducing spending.

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The Future of Russia’s Sovereign Internet

The Future of Russia’s Sovereign Internet

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; internet; future; sovereignty;

So-called “sovereign internets”, which are networks cut off from the global internet, is attractive to authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran. Russia declares that it has achieved the technical capacity to implement it, which would allow the Russian authorities more control over society but could cause problems for business. The Russian authorities therefore will limit its use to a preventive measure at key moments and for blocking foreign networks and communicators inside Russia to try to control public moods in the country.

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