Series:PISM Bulletin

Agreement in the GCC in Light of Joe Biden's Victory

Agreement in the GCC in Light of Joe Biden's Victory

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: GCC; Agreement; Joe Biden; USA; foreign policy;

In early January, the “quartet states” (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt) announced the opening of borders and the restoration of full relations with Qatar, ending the blockade which started in 2017. The mitigation of the dispute is intended to show that the monarchies in the Persian Gulf are not the main factor destabilising the region. It is motivated, among other things, by declarations by the new U.S. administration to return human rights and democratic values to its foreign policy agenda, and to revisit the nuclear deal with Iran.

Ecology and Growth: Macron’s Dilemma before Elections

Ecology and Growth: Macron’s Dilemma before Elections

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; development; governance; ecology; growth; economy;

Protection of the environment is increasingly influencing the voting preferences of the French. The initiatives put forward by the authorities, such as subsidies for zero-emission cars or the reduction of dependence on nuclear energy, aim to reconcile economic growth with a commitment to the environment. The current environmental policy of President Emmanuel Macron, although criticised both by environmentalists and business interests, may gain voter recognition and favour the development of French non-carbon technologies.

China and the Crisis in the “17+1” Initiative

China and the Crisis in the “17+1” Initiative

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; crisis; EU; USA; Poland;

The summit of the leaders of the “17+1” format, postponed from 2020, was held on 9 February. The Chinese authorities blame the U.S. for the crisis in the initiative but it is mainly the result of a lack of a substantial Chinese offer to its participants. China will not give up the multilateral dimension of cooperation within the “17+1” framework, but will focus on closer cooperation with selected partners, such as Hungary and Serbia. Poland’s promotion of transatlantic interests and the EU’s assertive approach to China will deepen the differences in Polish-Chinese relations. This may lead Poland to consider leaving the initiative.

Digital (R)Evolution: Germany on Plans to Introduce an E-euro

Digital (R)Evolution: Germany on Plans to Introduce an E-euro

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: E-euro; currency; EU; Germany;

A single e-currency is seen by Germany as an opportunity to create more effective payment systems, accelerate the digital transformation, and strengthen the economic and political position of the European Union. However, possible side effects for the banking sector and concerns about the extent of protection of citizens’ privacy will lead Germany to introduce the e-euro as a complement rather than an alternative to cash, and to strictly regulate it.

Prospects For U.S.-Russia Relations During the Biden Presidency

Prospects For U.S.-Russia Relations During the Biden Presidency

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; Biden; presidency; cooperation; foreign policy;

The Biden administration in its policy towards the Russian Federation will draw on the experiences of the failed 2009 “reset” and Russia’s confrontational stance vis-á-vis the U.S. during the Obama and Trump presidencies. Russia will continue to compete with the U.S., seeking to weaken American leadership in the world and undermine confidence in Western democratic institutions. In response, President Joe Biden will work to strengthen transatlantic cooperation.

South Korea’s Growing Economic Involvement in Southeast Asia

South Korea’s Growing Economic Involvement in Southeast Asia

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; Southeast Asia; economic policy; involvement;

The development of South Korea’s economic cooperation with ASEAN countries is a manifestation of the deepening diversification of its trade and investments. South Korea is trying to reduce its dependence on its main economic partners - China, the U.S. and Japan - after much tension in trade in recent years. Its turn to Southeast Asia may accelerate as a result of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the EU, this means both greater competition for European companies in ASEAN and an impulse to review the effectiveness of the free trade agreement with South Korea.

Russia’s Problems in the Vaccine Race

Russia’s Problems in the Vaccine Race

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Vaccine; healthcare; pandemic; COVID-19;

In August 2020, Russia was the first country in the world to register a COVID-19 vaccine. Its production capacity, however, is much more limited than those of China, Western European countries, or the U.S. As a result, its ambitious plans for domestic vaccination and global sales will be constrained, forcing it to miss out on anticipated profits and harming its goal of international prestige as a main supplier of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Political Risk: Germany Pledges to Speed Up Vaccinations

Political Risk: Germany Pledges to Speed Up Vaccinations

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; vaccine; policy; politics; speed; COVID-19;

At the beginning of February, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that all German citizens will be able toreceive a COVID-19 vaccination by the end of the third quarter of this year. Achieving this goal requiresrapid delivery of doses and vaccinations. Failure to keep the promise may jeopardise the political fortunesof the Christian Democrats in the Bundestag elections and slow the lifting of restrictions in the economyof Poland’s most important trading partner.

EU’s Slow Start in the Vaccine Race

EU’s Slow Start in the Vaccine Race

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; vaccine; race; COVID-19;

By procuring COVID-19 vaccines together, EU Member States ensured that they would have equal access to them. However, the EU concluded contracts with producers later then the UK and the U.S., which, as pharmaceutical companies hit production snags, continued to receive deliveries, unlike the Member States. This delay will affect more than just the countries involved because a slower vaccine rollout could weaken public support for the Union and its international standing.

New EU Counter-Terrorism Agenda

New EU Counter-Terrorism Agenda

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; terrorism; agenda; security;

In December 2020, the European Commission adopted the Counter-Terrorism Agenda. It enhances coordination of counter-terrorism activities at the EU level and assumes a strengthening of the competences of Union bodies, such as Europol. Although the document properly identifies threats, controversy has arisen over the rules under which states should remove hate speech and terrorist content from the internet. An additional challenge is how to increase the effectiveness of preventing social radicalisation.

Closing Ranks: Finland and Nordic Cooperation

Closing Ranks: Finland and Nordic Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Finland; Nordic Cooperation; N5; foreign policy; security;

Finland aims to ensure that the N5, the group of Nordic countries, will form the most integrated region in the world by 2030. This is part of Finland’s foreign and security policy response to the changing operating environment involving global challenges, problems with EU cohesion on basic issues, and the deteriorated security situation in the immediate vicinity of the country. To achieve this goal, Finland will use Nordic cooperation platforms, including the Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM), the work of which the country coordinates in 2021.

The Prospects for Changes in U.S. Policy towards Latin America

The Prospects for Changes in U.S. Policy towards Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Latin America; policy; COVID-19; foreign policy;

The Biden administration will seek to rebuild the U.S. reputation and influence in Latin America. It will strengthen cooperation with Latin American partners in the field of climate change and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, among others. The pandemic and its socio-economic impacts will increase the scale of the challenges facing the U.S. in its relations with Latin America, including in migration and development cooperation. The Biden administration’s approach to the region may facilitate the U.S.-EU dialogue, for example, on efforts to overcome the political and humanitarian crises in Venezuela.

Kosovo: Political Reshuffle following Early Parliamentary Elections

Kosovo: Political Reshuffle following Early Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

The left-nationalist Self-Determination Movement (LVV) led by Albin Kurti won almost half of the votes in the parliamentary elections on 14 February 2021. This marks a fundamental political change in Kosovo. For the first time, a sole party of Kosovo Albanians can form a government with only members of national minorities, and none of the parties that have dominated the parliament so far will join the coalition. The fight against corruption is to be the priority of the new cabinet. Foreign policy goals, including the dialogue with Serbia, will be relegated to the background.

The EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime: Prospects and Challenges

The EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime: Prospects and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; human rights; EaP; sanctions regime; Russia; China;

The European “Magnitsky Act” adopted by the EU is a political signal that the Union wants to protect human rights in the world more effectively. It fixes the scope of sanctions application in this field, but it does not fundamentally change existing EU practices. Still, the challenges lie in the adoption of sanctions listings by a unanimous decision of the Member States and their subsequent effective implementation. The new system will be used for the first time to impose restrictions on those responsible for the detention of Alexei Navalny in Russia. It may also be used in cases of human rights violations in China or on the territory of conflict areas in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region.

Vaccine Passports and Freedom of Movement in the EU

Vaccine Passports and Freedom of Movement in the EU

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vaccine; passport; EU; movement; COVID-19;

Together with the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccination process in the European Union, the preparations of a common Community-wide immunity certificate began. The guidelines adopted at the end of January cover the medical requirements for this health certificate, however, many countries would like to extend their use for travel within the EU/Schengen area. This could contribute to the revival of tourism in Europe, although it is difficult to implement without affecting the freedom of movement.

Policy Prospects of the Biden Administration towards Israel and Palestine

Policy Prospects of the Biden Administration towards Israel and Palestine

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Palestine; foreign policy; USA; diplomacy; Biden;

While the Biden administration will backtrack on some of the Trump administration’s decisions, it will maintain the traditional stance in U.S. policy towards Israel and Palestine. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the U.S. will be committed to improving the situation of the Palestinians, but probably will not submit its own peace plan, preferring ad hoc diplomatic actions.

Slovakia’s New Security and Defence Strategies

Slovakia’s New Security and Defence Strategies

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovakia; security; defence; strategy; NATO; EU;

The Slovak parliament has adopted the government’s revised security and defence strategies. These are the first new versions in 16 years. They emphasise the key role of NATO and the EU in Slovakia’s security architecture and define Russia and China as challenges. Such analysis, supported by changes in Slovakia’s foreign policy, creates better conditions for cooperation with Poland in the field of security, even though the Slovak strategies pay little attention to its regional dimension

Belarus: Half a Year of Protests

Belarus: Half a Year of Protests

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; protests; politics; violence; human rights;

Since the rigged presidential elections in August 2020, the public protests against Alexander Lukashenka have continued. The Belarusian authorities have responded with repression, detaining protesters and independent journalists. Despite Lukashenka’s calls to reform the constitution, he also tries to postpone this process. The European Union should increase its support to civil society and keep demanding the Belarusian authorities respect human rights.

Uganda Demonstrates the Growing Influence of Social Media on Politics in Africa

Uganda Demonstrates the Growing Influence of Social Media on Politics in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Uganda; Social media; Africa; politics;

In Africa, the frequency of politically fuelled internet blockages is increasing. This strengthens authoritarian tendencies and threatens business, for example, in Uganda, where the authorities switched off online access before January’s election. This undermined the election’s credibility and caused financial losses. Just as much controversy was sparked by Facebook’s attempts to restrict content supporting the candidacy of the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, by shutting down government accounts.

ASEM at 25: Challenges and Opportunities for the Asia-Europe Dialogue

ASEM at 25: Challenges and Opportunities for the Asia-Europe Dialogue

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: ASEM; Asia; Europe; challenges; opportunities; foreign policy;

Twenty-five years after the creation of the Asia-Europe Dialogue (ASEM), it may be at a turning point. The growing tensions of some states in relations with China and disputes over the observance of human rights in Asia may hinder further action and deepen marginalisation. However, ASEM could become a key forum for European-Asian cooperation because of its informal structure and the growing ties between the two continents. This could be achieved through expansion of the ASEM membership, deepening of interregional cooperation, and presenting a shared vision of Indo-Pacific as an area of cooperation rather than confrontation.